Wednesday, January 12, 2011

USDCHF—still fighting

I'm still long from .9338 and .9490 but am considering lightening up by perhaps closing the .9490 long. Yesterday's high was .9784 and it has since pulled back to a low of .9691 this morning. On the 30-minute chart the low formed a hammer candle. This is a support level, albeit not a particularly strong one, so let's see if it can hold. Both the Swissy and Cable have been rising and as their correlation is usually negative on a daily or longer basis. Therefore, one will probably continue in its direction while the other falls.

As I wrote yesterday, the Swissy is in a strong resistance zone continuing up through .9860. In the five waves I traced out on yesterday's chart, wave five equaled wave one at .9688. Given it's almost pulled back to this, there could be an ABC correction beginning or wave five isn't over. (Elliott Wave is so NOT definitive which is why you can't trade it). Another way using EW theory to predict the end of wave five is to take the amount between wave one and three (407 pips from 9301 to 9708), multiply it by .382 and use that to project wave five from the bottom of wave four (.9605). That price target is .9760. In any case, one can see why there's resistance here.

Support is at .9605/00 and .9562/41.

No chart until something changes.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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