I'm still long from 1.5419. However, I'm thinking of closing my long or at least lightening it up significantly.
The pair hasn't been able to climb above 1.5604 which is the top of the triangle. This is also near a weekly channel resistance price and the weekly 20 EMA of 1.5651 as well as near some fibos. A drop back to 1.5445 (the triangle bottom) would proceed another move up. Since symmetrical triangles are often a continuation move (and Elliott triangles allegedly break in the same direction as the prevailing trend), then eventually the pair should break down from this triangle to some very attractive targets. Below the triangle is support at 1.5345 and 1.5297.
If the pair should break above 1.5651, additional resistance is at 1.5710/40.
I'm posting the daily chart below which shows the old bull flag I drew some time back. It's back around this breakout point from that flag so one could see some upside potential if this were to take off. That move would bring it in line with a C wave on the monthly chart. However it seems unlikely to happen as the pair has broken below two uptrend lines. There's also an asymmetrical, confirmed (1.5485) head and shoulders pattern with a price target of 1.4670.
Here's the daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
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