In a recap of the week so far as of 9:05AM EST:
AUDUSD had its high on Monday of 1.0022, peeked back above parity on Wednesday with a lackluster 1.0002, and was disappointing in general to its bullish fans all week. The pair closed yesterday at .9891, only five pips less than last Friday but still above its 100 and 200 daily moving average. It's currently attempting a rally. It has reached a high of .9988 this morning, a resistance price. If the current hourly candle closes significantly lower, there will be an evening star formation and a good hint of lower lows to come. Resistance is at .9988, 1.0020/56/77, and 1.0183. Support is at .9887, .9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32. Potential price targets in the event of continued lows are .9740, .9490, .9420, .9213 and below.
EURGBP has had a nice week so far, closing yesterday at .8628, 114 pips higher than last Friday's close. It's above all its daily moving averages. With a low yesterday of .8582, it's sitting on key support. Resistance is at .8648 and .8751. I suspect there will be sideways movement going into next week.
EURJPY had its happy day yesterday when it blew through resistance and touched 114.01. It's slipped to a low of 112.67 this morning and this calls into question whether the 10 daily moving average will make it above the 100 and overtake the 200 which it was poised to do. On the weekly chart I pointed out how the pair had overtaken its downtrend resistance line so we'll have to see whether it can pull off additional moves back up to the top of the trading range at 115.69.
EURUSD continued to do generally well this week, reaching a high of 1.3759 yesterday. Thursday's candle was a doji indicating indecision in the market. Elliott Wave interpretations as well as other calculations are bearish for the most part but there is definitely some thrust to this move up. Still, price has to close above 1.3860 for the bulls to continue their excitement. The pair has been hanging about in a fairly narrow range since its high so additonal moves upward are indeed possible. If it can close above 1.3860, 1.4060 and 1.4282 would be the next challenges. I don't expect it to stumble much today but if it does look for support at an overnight hourly hammer candle of 1.3679 and then 1.3637, 1.3573, 1.3500 and 1.3457.
GBPJPY had a splendid week, reaching to a high of 132.67 before it was smacked down to a low of 130.77 this morning, a 50% retracement. I'm glad I grabbed profits yesterday morning. However, given that this pair has broken above its very long term downtrend line on the weekly chart, it's possible there's going to more upside in store. Support is likely at 130.73/58 and 129.52. Depending on momentum behavior if it approaches those levels, I may buy in again. Resistance is obviously the 132.67, an area it's been battering at since last week. Above that is 133.00 and 134.00.
GBPUSD sank Tuesday from 1.6010 to 1.5751 and the close yesterday was 104 pips down from last Friday's. Cable is above the 20, 50, 100 and 200 daily moving average crossing under the 10 this week. It's trying to rally touching 1.5967 earlier this morning. It needs to close over 1.6059 in order to generate more bullish sentiment. A drop to 1.5830 would hint at lower lows to come.
USDCAD was dull, dull, dull this week, hovering between .9912 and 1.0004. It can't stay this dull much longer.
USDCHF has two key prices to watch—.9300 on the downside and .9623, the high on Monday, on the upside. Dropping below the .618 retracement of .9485 was a bummer and at the moment it looks as though it's going to make it back to .9300. If it can get to .9000, it's probable it will use that as a base. Shorting rallies seems the way to go as long as it doesn't close above .9623.
USDJPY managed to close yesterday only 15 pips above last Friday's close despite a rally that took it 83.21 in one bullish hourly candle in early trading Thursday morning in London. Who was responsible for letting the horses out of the barn that hour, I wonder. Despite a continuation triangle yesterday on the hourly chart, the pair plunged back to a low of 82.06 this morning. There's hope for this pair if it can hold above 81.85.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
GBPUSD—weaker
Cable is hanging around just below confluence. A break below 1.5880 and then 1.5853 would signal that it can't carry another advance into the 1.6000 region. The pair needs to get above 1.6059 to hint at a bullish uptrend and higher highs.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—at resistance
Euro's overnight low was 1.3637 and that's a support level to watch. The stalling doesn't mean the uptrend is over but a break below that would be significant. To maintain a bullish outlook it needs to break 1.3759/86 and then 1.3860. Since it's hovering around below that resistance, the chances are reasonable that it will make the break.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDJPY—breached resistance trend line
USDJPY has poked its head above the downtrend line that began in May of last year, possibly in reaction to S&P cutting Japan's bond rating from AA to –AA. Still, a break of a trend line is a break of a trend line and shouldn't be ignored. If the week's close is above the line it strengthens the case that the pair is basing.
If this is an ABC correction on the daily chart, then the potential targets for C are 83.54, 85.14 and 87.74. At 87.74, USDJPY runs into resistance from a speed line. The December high was 84.53; the September high, 85.93.
81.86 should hold if there's to be more upside. Below that is support at 80.94 and 80.31.
Here's a daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If this is an ABC correction on the daily chart, then the potential targets for C are 83.54, 85.14 and 87.74. At 87.74, USDJPY runs into resistance from a speed line. The December high was 84.53; the September high, 85.93.
81.86 should hold if there's to be more upside. Below that is support at 80.94 and 80.31.
Here's a daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—still in triangle
It's impossible to know at this moment whether the overnight low of .9877, point E, has been reached in the triangle. It's not quite at support of .9850 so a bit further push down is possible. If .9877 was the low then it strengthens the case for an upside breakout. An upside breakout also makes sense within the context of the overall, larger trend. However, in the larger, weekly picture, there are bearish signals such as the bearish candles on the weekly chart from November and early January and the break of the daily uptrend line from June. A definitive break below the triangle would lead to the conclusion that the 1.0257 was part of a topping formation. However, there is still the unconfirmed double bottom in January (9804 and 9833 with the confirmation point at 1.0077) and a target of 1.0350.
So, still sideways for now with the key prices being 1.0022 (better 1.0070) or below .9850 and better .9804.
I don't think this will continue much longer. If price drops to .9855, monitor it carefully as that is the nearby support for the triangle's last leg down.
Support is at .9855, .9804, .9691, .9612 and .9544/32/15. If the pair gets above 1.0077, resistance is 1.0183, 1.0257, and 1.0300/50.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
So, still sideways for now with the key prices being 1.0022 (better 1.0070) or below .9850 and better .9804.
I don't think this will continue much longer. If price drops to .9855, monitor it carefully as that is the nearby support for the triangle's last leg down.
Support is at .9855, .9804, .9691, .9612 and .9544/32/15. If the pair gets above 1.0077, resistance is 1.0183, 1.0257, and 1.0300/50.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—broke above triangle
Yesterday I posted the 15-minute chart of EURJPY and it did indeed break out to the long side as expected. I added another position yesterday afternoon at 112.70 in additon to the existing long position at 112.18. In breaking from the triangle, it managed to cut through the resistance zone that was holding it below 112.92 and has reached a high of 114.01 just a few minutes ago.
With the break above the long downtrend line on the weekly chart that I blogged about yesterday, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect we're in some sort of larger correction and the top of a range that goes back to September 2009 at 115.69 is in sight. After that 116.48 is the .382 retracement of the move down from 170.01. Above that are highs in the 128 and 138/139 area.
However, nothing moves in a straight line. The pair has exceeded the target for the triangle at 113.50; it's overbought on 15-minute and one-hour charts. There's also a rounding on the top of the 15-minute chart that hints at traders taking profits. So it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some sort of pullback.
If the pair begins to break down, support is at 113.50, 112.92, 111.83, 111.25, 110.32, and 109.59/52 (price low and fib). Below that would hint at 106.83 and of course below 105.43 would resume the larger downtrend. I will probably add to my positions on a pullback.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
With the break above the long downtrend line on the weekly chart that I blogged about yesterday, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect we're in some sort of larger correction and the top of a range that goes back to September 2009 at 115.69 is in sight. After that 116.48 is the .382 retracement of the move down from 170.01. Above that are highs in the 128 and 138/139 area.
However, nothing moves in a straight line. The pair has exceeded the target for the triangle at 113.50; it's overbought on 15-minute and one-hour charts. There's also a rounding on the top of the 15-minute chart that hints at traders taking profits. So it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some sort of pullback.
If the pair begins to break down, support is at 113.50, 112.92, 111.83, 111.25, 110.32, and 109.59/52 (price low and fib). Below that would hint at 106.83 and of course below 105.43 would resume the larger downtrend. I will probably add to my positions on a pullback.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
EURJPY—triangle
On the 15-minute chart of EURJPY below one can see it in a symmetrical triangle. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the breakout should be to the upside. I don't trade such short-term charts but I'm already long from 112.18 and I check the shorter-term charts periodically to see if there are any signals that support or negate my positions or that give clues about pullbacks. In any case, as I wrote in the blog post a few minutes ago, there's lots of resistance to get through up to 112.92 so let's see what happens.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—second test of .9400
Since yesterday, the Swissy has made two tests of the .9400 psychological barrier on the three-hour chart. If it loses this fight, the next support is the 12/31 low of .9301. Beneath that are price targets in the .9000 area.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—weekly
EURJPY is another pair that has closed above a long-term trend line. The low is more recent than the Guppy's was (Aug. 2010 versus Jan. 2009 for the Guppy). However, until the pair breaks below the 105.43 low, it's possible this swing low was one to build a base upon.
This pair may be being pulled by the Euro's move up as there's an 80% correlation on a daily basis currently. As I blogged earlier this week, there's fierce resistance in the 112 zone, all the way up to 112.92. In additon, 115.69 is the top of a general range that goes back to September 2009. 116.48 is the .382 retracement of the move down from 170.01. Above that are highs in the 128 and 138/139 area.
If the pair begins to break down, support is at 111.83, 111.25, 110.32, and 109.59/52 (price low and fib). Below that would hint at 106.83 and of course below 105.43 would resume the larger downtrend.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This pair may be being pulled by the Euro's move up as there's an 80% correlation on a daily basis currently. As I blogged earlier this week, there's fierce resistance in the 112 zone, all the way up to 112.92. In additon, 115.69 is the top of a general range that goes back to September 2009. 116.48 is the .382 retracement of the move down from 170.01. Above that are highs in the 128 and 138/139 area.
If the pair begins to break down, support is at 111.83, 111.25, 110.32, and 109.59/52 (price low and fib). Below that would hint at 106.83 and of course below 105.43 would resume the larger downtrend.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—weekly
Taking a look at the weekly chart below, one can see that the pair has managed to break above a long-term downtrend resistance line that has had three touches. This raises the question of whether the pair is using the recent low of 125.51 to base. If the Guppy can climb and close above the 134.23 November high, the question becomes a possibility. 132.52 has been the most recent high where it ran into resistance from confluence. The real test is whether it can sustain a close above 134.23. If it can, then the potential is for a move to 137.79, 139.38/87 (confluence) and 145.98.
If it gets to 134.23, many traders, still driven by the substantive downtrend, will short. That's why a substantive close, preferably on a weekly basis, will be necessary for continued bullish movement. Still, one needs to keep in mind that this quite formidable trend line has been breached for the time being. 169.39 would be a .382 retracement of the entire move down so there's room for some good profits if it does continue up.
129.50 is the first support. Below that is 128.99, 127.50 126.73/46, and 125.55.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If it gets to 134.23, many traders, still driven by the substantive downtrend, will short. That's why a substantive close, preferably on a weekly basis, will be necessary for continued bullish movement. Still, one needs to keep in mind that this quite formidable trend line has been breached for the time being. 169.39 would be a .382 retracement of the entire move down so there's room for some good profits if it does continue up.
129.50 is the first support. Below that is 128.99, 127.50 126.73/46, and 125.55.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—triangle
.9998 was the best AUDUSD has been able to accomplish since yesterday and it has since fallen back a bit in what looks like a descending triangle. I thought .9993 would cap so it's almost right where it should be.
If you give the triangle an Elliott Wave interpretation then it's going to break in the direction from which it came which is upward. Before that happened you'd see a move down to or in the direction of point E. That makes sense given the overall uptrend of Aussie. There's no definitive sign the uptrend is over yet although there are bearish possibilities. On the shorter-term charts, momentum is not robust. What one can say with some certainty is that the current price movement is sideways. Only a break above 1.0022 (better 1.0070) or below .9850 and better .9804 will provide some direction.
On the plus side, there's a possible double bottom in January (9804 and 9833 with the confirmation point at 1.0077) and a target of 1.0350. Or, if one is bearish, the whole mess at the top is some sort of topping pattern but the confirmation won't be until .9537 is broken. As long as it stays below 1.0077 and better 1.0022, that's a reasonable outlook and those must be stops for any shorts at this point.
Support is at .9850, .9804, .9691, .9612 and .9544/32/15. If the pair gets above 1.0077, resistance is 1.0183, 1.0257, and 1.0300/50.
Here's a three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If you give the triangle an Elliott Wave interpretation then it's going to break in the direction from which it came which is upward. Before that happened you'd see a move down to or in the direction of point E. That makes sense given the overall uptrend of Aussie. There's no definitive sign the uptrend is over yet although there are bearish possibilities. On the shorter-term charts, momentum is not robust. What one can say with some certainty is that the current price movement is sideways. Only a break above 1.0022 (better 1.0070) or below .9850 and better .9804 will provide some direction.
On the plus side, there's a possible double bottom in January (9804 and 9833 with the confirmation point at 1.0077) and a target of 1.0350. Or, if one is bearish, the whole mess at the top is some sort of topping pattern but the confirmation won't be until .9537 is broken. As long as it stays below 1.0077 and better 1.0022, that's a reasonable outlook and those must be stops for any shorts at this point.
Support is at .9850, .9804, .9691, .9612 and .9544/32/15. If the pair gets above 1.0077, resistance is 1.0183, 1.0257, and 1.0300/50.
Here's a three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—hovering
Euro has been hovering just below the 1.3717 resistance since yesterday (it touched 1.3721 in early London trading). The stalling here is normal as some take profits so it's not indicative the move up is over. In fact, hovering just below resistance is often seen as bullish. I'm still long from 1.3587 but took some partial profits at +75 pips.
It needs to break 1.3786 and then 1.3860 for the bulls to stay hopeful. If it can do so, the next serious resistance is 1.4060 (weekly downtrend line from 12/2009) and 1.4283 (November high).
Strong support is 1.3650. Below that is a short-term uptrend and speed line at 1.3624/12, 1.3573, 1.3500, 1.3457/31, 1.3396, 133.44 (uptrend line from early January) 1.3245/20/00 (strong), 1.3154 and 1.3000 (big psychological). I may add to my long position if it drops to 1.3624/12 and the price and momentum behavior look good.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
It needs to break 1.3786 and then 1.3860 for the bulls to stay hopeful. If it can do so, the next serious resistance is 1.4060 (weekly downtrend line from 12/2009) and 1.4283 (November high).
Strong support is 1.3650. Below that is a short-term uptrend and speed line at 1.3624/12, 1.3573, 1.3500, 1.3457/31, 1.3396, 133.44 (uptrend line from early January) 1.3245/20/00 (strong), 1.3154 and 1.3000 (big psychological). I may add to my long position if it drops to 1.3624/12 and the price and momentum behavior look good.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
EURUSD—small dip
The Euro wobbled a bit this morning, dipping to 1.3573 but above yesterday's 1.3431 low and the pssychological 1.3500. I took advantage of the dip to buy at 1.3587 although I had to grit my teeth to do so because there are negative signals as well as positive ones. Isn't that often the way?
My short-term outlook depends very much on how Euro behaves as it struggles with the 1.3686 high that has capped it the last 24 hours. The fact that it's back here after a mild dip means it's battling to get through. This is formidable resistance since it's near or at a speed line from the daily chart, a fib, and the lower boundary of the uptrend channel that the pair fell below in November. So good luck with getting through that.
My longer view is bearish as I've previously blogged. The pair would have to close above 1.4000 for me to change that view. But in the interim, there are enough buyers out there it seems to keep the bears from taking complete control, though they're sending out signals through such things as divergence on the three-hour chart.
Resistance is at 1.3686, 1.3717, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.4060 (weekly downtrend line from 12/2009) and 1.4283. Support is at 1.3573, 1.3500, 1.3457/31, 1.3396 1.3245/20/00 (strong), 1.3154 and 1.3000 (big psychological).
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
My short-term outlook depends very much on how Euro behaves as it struggles with the 1.3686 high that has capped it the last 24 hours. The fact that it's back here after a mild dip means it's battling to get through. This is formidable resistance since it's near or at a speed line from the daily chart, a fib, and the lower boundary of the uptrend channel that the pair fell below in November. So good luck with getting through that.
My longer view is bearish as I've previously blogged. The pair would have to close above 1.4000 for me to change that view. But in the interim, there are enough buyers out there it seems to keep the bears from taking complete control, though they're sending out signals through such things as divergence on the three-hour chart.
Resistance is at 1.3686, 1.3717, 1.3800, 1.3860, 1.4060 (weekly downtrend line from 12/2009) and 1.4283. Support is at 1.3573, 1.3500, 1.3457/31, 1.3396 1.3245/20/00 (strong), 1.3154 and 1.3000 (big psychological).
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—choppy
AUDUSD ended the NorAm session yesterday resting atop confluence after a high of 1.0022. This morning, it dropped to .9895. The pair never managed to retrace .618 of the most recent move down; last week saw a break of a major trendline; the weekly candle was bearish with its upper shadow. Unless Aussie can overcome last Thursday's high of 1.0077, the focus is on the downside.
Support is at.9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32. With the downward pressure, I'd expect .9993 to cap. However, keep an eye for changes upward at some point. The pair is in an overal uptrend and this could be a very limited correction. On the weekly chart, one can see how shorter trend lines continue upwards with no break yet of the weekly ones.
Here's a weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at.9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32. With the downward pressure, I'd expect .9993 to cap. However, keep an eye for changes upward at some point. The pair is in an overal uptrend and this could be a very limited correction. On the weekly chart, one can see how shorter trend lines continue upwards with no break yet of the weekly ones.
Here's a weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, January 24, 2011
USDCHF—taking a beating
It looks as though even though USDCHF had a potentially bullish week last week with a longish lower shadow and even though there was a bull flag on the daily chart that targeted 1.0388, the pair is getting beaten up this morning. .9486 was the .618 retracement of the move up to .9784 and the low this morning so far is .9473.
Closing below .9432/19 threatens a return to .9300 and brings back into play price targets for additional lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Closing below .9432/19 threatens a return to .9300 and brings back into play price targets for additional lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—weekly
The Euro had a bang-up week last week, closing at 1.3618.
On the weekly chart, the pair has aggressively climbed back above the broken downtrend line, suggesting an optimism for the pair, based on what besides hope (always dangerous), I do not know. Regardless, that's two weeks with a higher high although only one with a higher low.
The high a few minutes ago was 1.3649 and there's little reason to not believe the hopes can carry the pair to 1.3786, the November high. 1.3578 was the 50% retracement of the move down from that high to 1.2874; 1.3744 will be the .618 retracement level and a place where there will most likely be some profit-taking from those who haven't completely drunk the Kool-aid that turns otherwise reasonable people into frothing at the mouth Euro bulls. However, if those bulls get it above 1.3860, the stage will be set for hopes to the 1.4060 (downtrend line from 12/2009 on weekly chart below) and the 1.4283 high. I'd definitely short there.
The move up on the weekly chart doesn't look impulsive so it must be corrective if examined from an Elliott Wave perspective. Note, too, that RSI is still below its uptrend line. The expanded flat nature of the correction could carry it higher. However there may be short-term opportunities for longs.
Support is at 1.3500, 1.3457, 1.3245/20/00 (strong), 1.3154 and 1.3000 (big psychological).
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the weekly chart, the pair has aggressively climbed back above the broken downtrend line, suggesting an optimism for the pair, based on what besides hope (always dangerous), I do not know. Regardless, that's two weeks with a higher high although only one with a higher low.
The high a few minutes ago was 1.3649 and there's little reason to not believe the hopes can carry the pair to 1.3786, the November high. 1.3578 was the 50% retracement of the move down from that high to 1.2874; 1.3744 will be the .618 retracement level and a place where there will most likely be some profit-taking from those who haven't completely drunk the Kool-aid that turns otherwise reasonable people into frothing at the mouth Euro bulls. However, if those bulls get it above 1.3860, the stage will be set for hopes to the 1.4060 (downtrend line from 12/2009 on weekly chart below) and the 1.4283 high. I'd definitely short there.
The move up on the weekly chart doesn't look impulsive so it must be corrective if examined from an Elliott Wave perspective. Note, too, that RSI is still below its uptrend line. The expanded flat nature of the correction could carry it higher. However there may be short-term opportunities for longs.
Support is at 1.3500, 1.3457, 1.3245/20/00 (strong), 1.3154 and 1.3000 (big psychological).
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—nudging above resistance
All the Euro crosses are nudging up this morning, following the Euro and this pair is no exception, reaching a high of 112.77 so far this morning, just above last week's high of 112.50. The weekly close was at 112.47 so bulls have control. I'm long from 111.89.
As long as the pair can keep nudging higher and get above the potential C wave target of 112.92 (.618A) as well as fib, MA and price resistance in this area (big resistance), I don't see any real resistance until 113.71/114.00, a weekly downtrend line from October, price target, and a round number. After that is 115.66, 116.09, and 116.68.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
As long as the pair can keep nudging higher and get above the potential C wave target of 112.92 (.618A) as well as fib, MA and price resistance in this area (big resistance), I don't see any real resistance until 113.71/114.00, a weekly downtrend line from October, price target, and a round number. After that is 115.66, 116.09, and 116.68.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—nudging above resistance
EURGBP's range last week was .8332 to .8530 with a close near the high at .8514. This morning's high so far is .8536.
The cross is riding Euro's shirttails in its rebound. It remains to be seen whether it can sustain a break above .8530 and get to .8646 (January's high). If it can do so, resistance is at .8646, .8870,( weekly downtrend line from 3/2010), .8941, and .9175 (weekly downtrend line from 3/2009).
On the three-hour chart, the move up looks corrective in three waves. Support is at .8332, .8296/85 (weekly uptrend line from July and prior low), .8143, and .8068.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The cross is riding Euro's shirttails in its rebound. It remains to be seen whether it can sustain a break above .8530 and get to .8646 (January's high). If it can do so, resistance is at .8646, .8870,( weekly downtrend line from 3/2010), .8941, and .9175 (weekly downtrend line from 3/2009).
On the three-hour chart, the move up looks corrective in three waves. Support is at .8332, .8296/85 (weekly uptrend line from July and prior low), .8143, and .8068.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—correcting
AUDUSD reached a low of 9833 last Thursday and is enjoying a bit of a zigzag correction. This could carry it to .9945 or .9988. The high so far this morning has been .9931.
I'm short in the pair and unless it gets above 1.0077 (last Thursday's high) shorting seems the way to go. Possible targets are .9740, .9490, .9213 and below.
However, and it's a big however, this pair is like one of those plastic dolls you punch and it bounces right back. Aussie is still in a long-term uptrend until proven otherwise. This means stops must be tight and reversing on a break might be reasonable.
The break of the daily uptrend line from last May was a hint, not a certainty. Last week's candle was a doji whose upper shadow is potentially bearish. The week ended with a higher high (by 57 pips) and higher low (by 12 pips) from the prior week. The close was .9896 versus the prior week close of .9888, both down from the first week of the year.
Besides the 1.0077 high, the other four closes last week were at or below 9951. The break from the daily downtrend line was at .9962 and just above that is fib confluence. So resistance remains in the .9900 area and then 1.0077 and 1.0183, 1.0214, and 1.0257. Support is at .9916, .9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm short in the pair and unless it gets above 1.0077 (last Thursday's high) shorting seems the way to go. Possible targets are .9740, .9490, .9213 and below.
However, and it's a big however, this pair is like one of those plastic dolls you punch and it bounces right back. Aussie is still in a long-term uptrend until proven otherwise. This means stops must be tight and reversing on a break might be reasonable.
The break of the daily uptrend line from last May was a hint, not a certainty. Last week's candle was a doji whose upper shadow is potentially bearish. The week ended with a higher high (by 57 pips) and higher low (by 12 pips) from the prior week. The close was .9896 versus the prior week close of .9888, both down from the first week of the year.
Besides the 1.0077 high, the other four closes last week were at or below 9951. The break from the daily downtrend line was at .9962 and just above that is fib confluence. So resistance remains in the .9900 area and then 1.0077 and 1.0183, 1.0214, and 1.0257. Support is at .9916, .9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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