Sorry for no blog posts Thurday and Friday. Between a touch of the flu, taxes, and my cat, Alban, getting diagnosed with bone cancer, it has been a tough week.
I sat down Thursday morning, early, to try to trade and I just couldn't focus. I was determined to get back to it today but I just don't have the energy. Sometimes, it's better to let it go. We all have to recognize when life overtakes us and realize we can't be at our best.
I'll have it back together by Monday.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
USDJPY—immediate support and resistance
On the daily and hourly time charts, immediate resistance is a zone of 84.20/77, 85.16 and 85.52. Immediate support is at 83.47, 82.56, and 80.71. On the hourly chart, there is a symmetrical triangle with a possible next leg down to a D point at 83.55 before a move up to point E from the Elliott perspective (whereupon it should move down sharply). One can also view the recent hourly price action from 83.47 as an ABC correction with possible C targets of 84.10/84.47/85.06. After that it should move down. Recent high has been 84.26.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDJPY—weekly chart
Yesterday I looked at the monthly chart where there were some interesting characteristics. The weekly chart is also interesting in its own way. Price is getting close to a downtrend line resistance from the 110.69, July 2008 high. Tying it back to the monthly chart, 110.69 was the high before it broke below the multi-year symmetrical triangle.
Look at the weekly rectangle before the recent spike low to 76.45. One sees a high of 84.53 and low of 80.22 or 431 pips. Subtracting the 431 pips from the 80.22 low, one gets a target of 75.81, not far below the recent spike low of 76.45. However, that spike low quickly reversed. Price came back in the rectangle and pushed above its upper boundary. Psychologically, the market participants charged down, reversed en masse, and charged back up. Terrific herd behavior.
If price should maintain itself above the rectangle, the potential price target is 88.94. There is negative divergence with RSI on this chart just as there was on the monthly chart. However, before it could get there, price must overcome the downtrend line resistance, located today at 86.19.
Thinking about both the monthly and weekly charts, it is possible wave five ended at 76.45 (I would not bet the bank on this or anything relying only on Elliott Wave Theory but one could argue this wave count). However, if true, the next move would be up in an A wave.
Weekly chart support is at 83.4, 81.39, 80.59 and the egregious 76.45. Below that is not much support.
Here's the weekly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author. My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Look at the weekly rectangle before the recent spike low to 76.45. One sees a high of 84.53 and low of 80.22 or 431 pips. Subtracting the 431 pips from the 80.22 low, one gets a target of 75.81, not far below the recent spike low of 76.45. However, that spike low quickly reversed. Price came back in the rectangle and pushed above its upper boundary. Psychologically, the market participants charged down, reversed en masse, and charged back up. Terrific herd behavior.
If price should maintain itself above the rectangle, the potential price target is 88.94. There is negative divergence with RSI on this chart just as there was on the monthly chart. However, before it could get there, price must overcome the downtrend line resistance, located today at 86.19.
Thinking about both the monthly and weekly charts, it is possible wave five ended at 76.45 (I would not bet the bank on this or anything relying only on Elliott Wave Theory but one could argue this wave count). However, if true, the next move would be up in an A wave.
Weekly chart support is at 83.4, 81.39, 80.59 and the egregious 76.45. Below that is not much support.
Here's the weekly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author. My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
USDJPY—monthly chart
USDJPY fell to 83.47 over night but has since rallied a bit. On the monthly chart, the pair fell from a multi-year triangle in 2009. If one tries to interpret the price target from this based on an Elliott perspective, it's too low to be meaningful (well, it would be meaningful if it happened but it's not realistic from today's vantage point). One could estimate a wave five price target at 62.76 (gulp) if golden section calculations are used.
Interesting is the fact that if you look at the AB=CD harmonic, the 1.27 extension of CD is 76.19. This is based on A beginning at 147.63 and ending at 101.22 (4,641 pips) and C beginning at 135.14. 4,641 times 1.27 equals 5,894. Subtracting that from 135.14 brings it to the 76.19. The pair hit a low of 76.45 in the most recent dip.
Also interesting is the symmetry of the move from 147.63 to 76.45. It's almost, not quite, a three-drive pattern, a harmonic pattern that can signal a trend reversal. Note the positive divergence with RSI on this chart and the hammer at the recent low. These three together suggest higher prices may be coming. For that to happen however, the pair must first overtake the long-term downtrend line. It also needs to overcome resistance at 85.54, 85.93, 90.00 and 94.99.
Here's a monthly chart. I'll post a weekly chart later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Interesting is the fact that if you look at the AB=CD harmonic, the 1.27 extension of CD is 76.19. This is based on A beginning at 147.63 and ending at 101.22 (4,641 pips) and C beginning at 135.14. 4,641 times 1.27 equals 5,894. Subtracting that from 135.14 brings it to the 76.19. The pair hit a low of 76.45 in the most recent dip.
Also interesting is the symmetry of the move from 147.63 to 76.45. It's almost, not quite, a three-drive pattern, a harmonic pattern that can signal a trend reversal. Note the positive divergence with RSI on this chart and the hammer at the recent low. These three together suggest higher prices may be coming. For that to happen however, the pair must first overtake the long-term downtrend line. It also needs to overcome resistance at 85.54, 85.93, 90.00 and 94.99.
Here's a monthly chart. I'll post a weekly chart later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, April 11, 2011
EURUSD—possible consolidation or retracement
Euro reached 1.4488 on Friday so bulls are in control coming into the new week. However, because there is strong resistance here, the possibility is for at least some consolidation and perhaps retracement. The resistance consists of price targets, wave and harmonic projections, and the .618 retracement of the move from 1.6041 to 1.1876 at 1.4451. This does not mean the move up is over. As I wrote on Friday, there is a possibility the pair is moving up within an upward sloping rectangle on the weekly chart that would take it to 1.5150. Applying even rudimentary cycle analysis also makes that possible. Within the daily chart, though, one can see that Euro is at the top of a similar type of rectangle and a drop to the bottom of this pattern wouldn't be unusual. Support is at 1.4420, 1.4384, 1.4320, then major support around 1.4262/43 (prior high and parity), 1.4202 (.382 of the recent move up from 1.3752), and then a zone beginning at 1.4166 down through 1.4100. Most likely, these supports will cause dip buying. Here's the daily chart:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)