On the short-term charts, this is Euro's third test of 1.3670 this morning, just below the daily 10 SMA of 1.3677. As I wrote yesterday, 1.3667 is key—the fact it climbed to a high of 1.3731 is icky for the bears. If it maintains this support then a long might be the smartest way to go as 1.3825/85 is the next resistance. A failure and definitive close below 1.3667 is a sign of weakness and would mark the rise to 1.3731 as a bull trap—almost classically so. Support is at 1.36, then 1.3447.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, November 19, 2010
EURGBP—still corrective
In a frustrating week, laced with a lack of meaningful price movement and conflicting signals, this pair has been one of the most frustrating. The little rally up to .8548 is pushing the triangle interpretation I wrote about yesterday and is just above the 10 day SMA. However, I also wrote yesterday that if this is examined as an ABC correction, wave C equals A at .8565. Certainly if it gets much above this, it would have pushed through the 200 daily SMA at .8562 and overcome some resistance lines as well and one would have to consider that higher highs are in store, possibly up to .8630. Until that point, my view is still bearish. I'm not posting a chart since not much has changed from yesterday but if you look at the hourly you can see bearish divergence in RSI.
Strong support is at the Nov. 11th low of .8450. It hammered out a base here and is also the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. A clean break through here would be lovely for shorts and upsetting to longs.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Strong support is at the Nov. 11th low of .8450. It hammered out a base here and is also the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. A clean break through here would be lovely for shorts and upsetting to longs.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
EURGBP—corrective structure
The pair has been meandering in a corrective structure that could be an ABC correction. I've labeled it on the 1-hour chart as such so the next move should be down. If wave C equaled A the price would be .8565—the pair reached .8552 where it also ran into a couple of resistance lines. The triangle I wrote about yesterday is still a possibility but there's no real fibo relationship between waves ABC which one expects to see. If it was a triangle, one would expect a price target for wave five of at least .8347.
Now to see what happens as it approaches.8463/43. The Nov. 11th low was .8450; this is also the price where it hammered out a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Now to see what happens as it approaches.8463/43. The Nov. 11th low was .8450; this is also the price where it hammered out a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—1.3667 key
I don't have a lot of time for blogging this morning but Euro is worth watching as it has rallied up to 1.3667. This is strong resistance. If it makes it through here then 1.3825/85 may be next. However, I'm looking for signs of weakness to short. Watch momentum on the short-term chart, particularly hourly. There's nearby support at 1.36 and if it fails there then next support is at 1.3447. A break of that would be cheery for short positions.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
AUDUSD—not much action
Like most pairs, there's not a lot of action in AUDUSD. My blog post from yesterday still stands—there should be a correction upwards—possible points are .9852, .9944, and 1.0008 in three waves with a possible high of 1.0005.
Patience, patience. Once the market begins to move then there should be some good trade setups coming up.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Patience, patience. Once the market begins to move then there should be some good trade setups coming up.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—still hovering
Since yesterday morning, the pair is hovering just back inside the daily channel and just below the recent high of .8526.
It's possible to trace out a fourth wave triangle on the three-hour chart and if this true then one could expect a price target for wave five of at least .8347. Certainly a break of Nov. 11th low at .8450 would lend support to this argument. .8450 is where it has tried to hammer a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Eventually the pairs will start to move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
It's possible to trace out a fourth wave triangle on the three-hour chart and if this true then one could expect a price target for wave five of at least .8347. Certainly a break of Nov. 11th low at .8450 would lend support to this argument. .8450 is where it has tried to hammer a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Eventually the pairs will start to move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—in small range
Euro has been stuck in an 80-pip range for the last 24 hours. The low of 1.3447 is in the middle of the 1.3463/39 support range. If it breaks below that then 1.3335 should be next and there are some layers of support down to 1.32. This is good for those still bullish on the Euro as it means some traders will take profits on shorts, thus boosting price. Whether enough will do that is a question as there's some evidence this could be part of a steeper drop.
The recent high has been 1.3527. While it's possible this will hold, there is strong resistance above at 1.3570/3650 if it doesn't. Above that is 1.3700, and the formidable 1.3825/85 (EW count, fibo, and 10 and 20 day SMA).
The general uncertainty is not good for trading.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The recent high has been 1.3527. While it's possible this will hold, there is strong resistance above at 1.3570/3650 if it doesn't. Above that is 1.3700, and the formidable 1.3825/85 (EW count, fibo, and 10 and 20 day SMA).
The general uncertainty is not good for trading.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
GBPJPY—narrow range at support
The pair has moved in a narrow range of 1.3291 to 1.3380 since Friday and the low is right on a fib confluence level and breakout level. I've gone long at 133.09 with possible price targets of 1.3506 and 1.3779. Nearby resistance is 1.3375 so I'll probably take some profits if it gets to that point. This pair doesn't like hanging around in ranges so I expect any move (up or down) to be swift. Below 132.75, I'd get antsy about being long and possibly reverse.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—interesting chart
The three hour chart for AUDUSD has some interesting features.
First, both price and RSI have broken below their rising trend lines (drawn in red) which is bearish. Note, though, that price is near a fibo, a fib confluence level and a price support. The pair looks as though it is in the fifth wave of five waves down from the 1.0183 high so one would expect a correction. There is also positive divergence (lines drawn in blue) which hints at a possible bounce. With all this I'd look for a bounce to 9852 to 9944 (I know, a pretty wide range but this isn't an exact science—closer targets may be found during a bounce on shorter-term charts) at which point, depending on momentum, I'd try another short. If it doesn't get there, closes below .9785/50 would hint at lower lows, first to .9650 and then .9406.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
First, both price and RSI have broken below their rising trend lines (drawn in red) which is bearish. Note, though, that price is near a fibo, a fib confluence level and a price support. The pair looks as though it is in the fifth wave of five waves down from the 1.0183 high so one would expect a correction. There is also positive divergence (lines drawn in blue) which hints at a possible bounce. With all this I'd look for a bounce to 9852 to 9944 (I know, a pretty wide range but this isn't an exact science—closer targets may be found during a bounce on shorter-term charts) at which point, depending on momentum, I'd try another short. If it doesn't get there, closes below .9785/50 would hint at lower lows, first to .9650 and then .9406.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—trying to rally
The pair has peeked back into the daily channel from which it dropped and is hovering around resistance just under .8514. This is after three days of hammering out a base in the .8450 area, the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. Additional gains look possible but resistance continues up to .8560. This pair is tricky right now—reasonable arguments can be made for a bear flag, a three-wave corrective structure, an Elliott ending diagonal, and a normal corrective channel, and the confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with a price target of .8363 (See last week's blog chart). Unfortunately, they contradict each other.
I'm holding off on charts this morning as the market is churning—trying to find direction.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm holding off on charts this morning as the market is churning—trying to find direction.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—at support
So far, at least, November doesn't look as though it's going to be good for Euro, despite the so-called "seasonal" factor, I wrote about the beginning of the month and despite the fact it came into the month with the bulls in control. It has dropped below October lows and the correction doesn't show any real signs of ending. There is strong resistance at 1.37 and while I doubt it will get much higher than that today, even stronger resistance at 1.3825/85 (EW count, fibo, and 10 and 20 day SMA). That would be a good shorting opportunity.
There are many potential price supports on the way down. As I noted yesterday, the 20 EMA on the monthly chart has been providing rough support (currently 1.3571). This is part of the reason it seems to be hovering above its low of 1.3561. Other supports are at 1.3504, 1.3463/39, 1.3335 (strong—it's former resistance and the price that many seem to be aiming for), 1.3286/70 and 1.3200. Quite a few levels in other words from which Euro cold launch a rally.
Meanwhile, let's see if it breaks 1.3561 in a reasonable fashion so that anyone not short can sell.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There are many potential price supports on the way down. As I noted yesterday, the 20 EMA on the monthly chart has been providing rough support (currently 1.3571). This is part of the reason it seems to be hovering above its low of 1.3561. Other supports are at 1.3504, 1.3463/39, 1.3335 (strong—it's former resistance and the price that many seem to be aiming for), 1.3286/70 and 1.3200. Quite a few levels in other words from which Euro cold launch a rally.
Meanwhile, let's see if it breaks 1.3561 in a reasonable fashion so that anyone not short can sell.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, November 15, 2010
EURUSD—bears in control
Euro closed last week at 1.3691which keeps it under pressure. You can see on the monthly chart below that it didn't quite make it to top of the channel before faltering at 1.4283. Although there may be a near term bounce, I'd expect Euro to weaken unless it easily clears resistance in the 1.3825/85 resistance zone (EW count, fibo, and 10 and 20 day SMA). I'll short from there or if weakness continues this morning from the 1.36 area. However, note that for the last two months, the 20 EMA is essentially providing support (currently 1.3571). If that fails, the price target is 1.3335.
Here's the monthly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the monthly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—looks weak
I'm still short from Friday's .8509 and the high since then is .8514. Last week was the third week in a row with lower highs and lower lows and the week ended with a long bearish candle. On the monthly chart with the bearish November to date, there may be an evening star forming off the high of .8941. It's bearish potential is strengthened by this high being almost right on the 50% resistance line of the move from 9805 to 8067. Currently, the pair is retesting the downward channel from which it fell below. There's a confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with a price target of .8363 (See last week's blog chart). An additional price target of .8190 comes from a shorter-term point and figure chart.
Offsetting all this is that the decline has found support at .8450, almost spot on the .628 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. On the monthly chart below, despite the potential evening start, one can make the case for a three-wave corrective structure which would mean another move up at some point, possibly to parity. However, I think a deeper pullback is more likely before that would happen based on the shorter-term signals.
Here's the monthly chart. My trade doesn't show because I use a different charting package for long term charts.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Offsetting all this is that the decline has found support at .8450, almost spot on the .628 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. On the monthly chart below, despite the potential evening start, one can make the case for a three-wave corrective structure which would mean another move up at some point, possibly to parity. However, I think a deeper pullback is more likely before that would happen based on the shorter-term signals.
Here's the monthly chart. My trade doesn't show because I use a different charting package for long term charts.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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