EURUSD—edged up to top of channel

Euro has edged up to the top of its broader channel although there's a clear lack of oomph as it reached a high of 1.3457 this morning. It could be in the process of forming another "step" as it stair-steps on down to new lows. Shorting rallies still seems to be the way to go in this pair as well.

Support:

1.3500
1.3444
1.3361
1.3247
1.3000

Resistance:

1.3522/52
1.3589
1.3670
1.3750
1.3788

Here's the three-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—weak momentum

Well, obviously I'm out of AUDUSD since it hit my breakeven stop yesterday afternoon in its climb to .9026 and I didn't get back in. It then went on to a low of .8879 so it would have been a nice trade. Some just get away.

The pair has since bounced to .8947 where it's writhing in indecision. It may scuttle on back to .9020/26 before it drops further. Shorting rallies is not a bad way to go. However one has to be cautious and consider the overall picture.

On Monday, I wrote that last Friday's daily candle was a doji (after a climb it's known as a hanging man) with a high of .8914 and a low of .8785. Notice, that with current decline, it dropped into that price range (.8879) but is currently at .8920 (10:24 EST). If it closes above .8914, then the weekly close will be higher than last week's close. This cannot be disregarded. So far, this week's high has been .9036 and I don't think it will be taken out today. Last week's high was .8921 so at the moment it's sitting on support. What it does from here will be very interesting indeed.

The pair isn't really trending at the moment. Another thing to think about is RSI compared to price. On the three-hour chart it's bearish because RSI has dropped more than price so what's to keep this pair climbing? This is not obvious if you just draw trend lines but if you look at where RSI was the last time it was in this price range, it shows that momentum is falling off. I've blue lined the levels on the three-hour chart.

Support is at .8879, .8814/47, .8785, and .8518. Here's the three-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—itty-bitty baby steps

If this pair is climbing it's sure baby stepping its way up there. It dropped to a low of 1.0398, almost hitting my stop. I still have both long positions at 1.0444 and 1.0462. As I wrote yesterday, if you're new at trading you want to stay away from this until it shows a solid close above 1.0602. So far today it has only reached 1.0530.

What's encouraging on the one-and three-hour charts is the bullish divergence with RSI. One could argue there's a confirmed double bottom at 1.0412. I don't buy that because price dropped below that point to the 1.0398 so it negates it. Even though I'm still "bullish" on this pair overall, I'm not going to start lying to myself by bolstering my arguments for being in it. However, as I've written many times, until it drops below the 1.0208 low, the pair seems to have found its bottom. There's a reasonable EW count that supports it going up. If it does go up there's a great risk to reward ratio. So far, my analysis has been rewarded (I made 1,000 pips on this pair alone last month after gains in it in October and November as well) so I'm sticking with it for now. Bottoming is a process. The fact that I'd like it to speed up is irrelevant to the market. Eventually, though, this pair will move. Current price at 9:27AM EST is 1.0498.

Support:

1.0466
1.0407/11/21
1.0398
1.0367
1.0312
1.0245
1.0208/25

Resistance

1.0500/06
1.0547/79/80
1.0593/1.0602
1.0636/44
1.0771/76/81

Here's the one-hour chart:




© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—update

Just took a small amount of profit off the table at +28 pips and moved my stop to breakeven. I think it may continue down but who knows? If anyone says they do, they don't. I also don't like the resilience that momentum is showing on the shorter-term charts. If it can't retake its trend line, though, I may add to my position.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—conflicted

AUDUSD—conflicted

The pair has its boosters who clearly want it to go up which is why it doesn't seriously fall. On the other hand there are enough naysayers out there that keep successfully holding the pair back. For the last three days the highs have been .9027, .9036, and .9018 respectively. Of course, it could still climb higher than .9018 since the day isn't over yet.

My sell order at .9055 obviously wasn't hit. I just took a small short position at .8998. Terrific price as far as being able to place a tight stop. But why short if it's at the bottom of a channel? That's a reasonable question and I normally wouldn’t do so except that the line has been penetrated and the pair has not shown any real energy in bouncing off of it and there is enough weakness in the pair as evidenced by EW counts and other calculations to suspect it may fall. But that's conjecture which is why one only wants to go in one can have such a tight stop as this offers.

If the pair manages to overcome yesterday's .9036, there's a chance it could go to .9155 (the top of the channel). From there it wouldn't be much further to .9200 but between .9144 and .9193 there is all kind of resistance from confluence to prior trend lines to a rather persuasive speed line from March 2009 lows. I suspect it would fall back sharply. That's why I have another sell order at .9155. If, by chance, it didn't fall back, sharply or otherwise, there's always that juicy November high at .9406 to go after. As if!

Support is at .8938, .8847, .8814, and .8578. Should she begin to approach those levels, there's an entire abyss down there.

Here's the three-hour chart.



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—back in broader channel

The pair did break its trend line yesterday, and dropped back into the broader downtrend channel. It's impossible to say with absolute certainty that the pair won't climb out again., especially with the bullish RSI divergence. It's also hovering just below the broader channel line as though it doesn't really want to leave to go lower. A short here is possible only because the stop can be tight. Note that if it breaks upward it now has two nearby, short-term resistance points—the line of the broad channel and the line of the former small channel. You can see I added another short position yesterday on the break of the trend line. Neither can cause a loss for me since the former, from 1.3700, and the latter, at 1.3644, are both profit stopped. The pair has gone as low as 1.3540. I wrote yesterday that a reasonable price target was 1.3522/32. Since it has largely achieved that I just took some profits off the table from the 1.3700 trade for +150 pips.

Support:

1.3522/32
1.3500
1.3361
1.3263

Resistance:

1.3589
1.3670
1.3750
1.3788

Here's the three-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—struggling

With highs yesterday and so far today of only 1.0487, this pair is really struggling. This behavior, after having already having broken below the 50% retracement of the up move from January to February 5, could be bearish as it appears it's now trying to retake that level, perhaps for a last kiss good-bye before sinking lower. The long upper shadow on the recently closed 3-hour chart hints it's rejecting the higher price level. It could scale it—this would have been a fake out move, then—but even if it achieves this barrier, it still has significant resistance to overcome. 1.0580 is the daily 13 SMA plus a confluence zone; 1.0593 and 1.0602 are confluence and a downtrend line from early February.

I added to my long position at 1.0462 after the bullish candles late yesterday morning. My original long of 1.0444 survived the last couple of days intact. I'm thinking of moving the stop on the original one to breakeven now that I've seen the overnight action (or lack thereof). I still believe it's possible there may be some active price movement today or tomorrow—alas, I don't know what direction. For new or conservative traders, I'd stay out of longs until this pair closes above 1.0602 with strongly bullish behavior. If it breaks below Tuesday and Wednesday's lows of 1.0411 then one would be safe to be fairly pessimistic and 1.0367, and probably lower, would be a tempting target.

Support:

1.0467
1.0407/11/21
1.0367
1.0312
1.0245
1.0208/25

Resistance

1.0495
1.0500/06
1.0547/79/80
1.0593/1.0602
1.0636/44
1.0771/76/81

Here's the three-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—nudging bottom of channel

If you look at the three-hour chart below you can see how Euro has nicely stair-stepped its way down to the recent low of 1.3532. You can also notice how the legs down have shortened such that the most recent one is roughly the same length as the first one from the January high of 1.4579. Another thing to notice is that the channels (or bear flags) are growing a bit broader with the current one the broadest of all. Currently, it's nudging the bottom of the current channel and with RSI also nibbling at its trend line, there may be a break lower coming. Finally, notice how it broke upward of the larger channel that contains all the smaller ones and is now appearing to come back to retest the trend line. Is it a false breakout or a simple throwback?

Channels can provide reasonable estimates of future price swings as the pair moves forward in time. If price moves outside a channel it's a sign that momentum has increased in favor of that move. You can forecast targets from channels by taking the width of the channel and adding it to or subtracting it from the breakout point.

Euro is now sitting on the bottom of the current channel. I shorted earlier today at 1.3700 and I have just moved my stop to slightly better than breakeven. As of now, 10:53 AM, Euro is at 1.3654. If it breaks the channel downward, using the logic above, then a reasonable price target is 1.3522. I always like to see if that lines up with any other logical points. If you look at the February 5 low you see it was 1.3532 which should prove to be support if it drops there again. If it pulls back into the channel again, it may approach the top at 1.3801. Let's see how it goes.

Here's the three-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPCHF—bounced

After reaching a low of 1.6783 yesterday, the pair bounced up and appears to be heading back to 1.6927/52. I took partial profits at 1.6810 for +46 pips and the rest of the pair stopped out at +3 pips.

There are not a lot of clear hints as to where this pair may go next so I'm moving it to the back burner for now.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Gartley's attributes of successful traders

During slow market periods it's nice to peruse a trading book. Gartley listed the following attributes of successful traders and they are good ones. According him, a successful trader must be able to:

a. Survey the outlook and reasonably apprise the future
b. Plan a campaign to meet the probably alternatives
c. Have courage to act in carrying out such a plan
d. Change the course of his plan when conditions make it necessary
e. Willing to trade on both sides of the market
f. Withstand a barrage of misinformation
g. Stay out of the market when he’s confused
h. Limit and take a loss
i. Let a profit run

USDCAD—at support

This is another pair that's hanging around, not doing much of anything. I suspect this may continue through today with tomorrow and Friday providing some action but we'll see.

My long from 1.0444 is still on. The low yesterday was 1.0411, so it didn't quite take it out. It's sitting on an uptrend line from January at 1.0421. A decisive break below there would not be good for USDCAD.

Support:

1.0407/21
1.0367
1.0312
1.0245
1.0208/25

Resistance

1.0467
1.0500/06
1.0547/79/85
1.0636/44
1.0771/76/81


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—at resistance

This pair is loitering right under resistance. No doubt it wants to make a break of it but supply is meeting demand and there's little movement this morning. The resistance is significant—it's the.618 retracement of the move down from the January high and it's also a polarity zone (.9012/33/48). AUDUSD reached a high of .9027 this morning. There's also nearby support—the short-term uptrend line is at the same point, roughly, as the 34 EMA at .8952.

It won't stay in this small range forever but there are few clues as to which way it will break. On one hand, the movement on the shorter-term charts looks corrective. In addition, there's a small broadening pattern that may be forming on the shorter-term charts. An orthodox pattern, if formed, is deadly. On the other hand, a pair that loiters just under resistance for any period of time does seem to eventually clear that hurdle. We're just going to have to wait and see on this one. I still have a sell order in at .9055 but I'll be watching price closely between here and there.

Support:

.9005/12
.8951
.8900
.8860

Resistance:

.9033/48/65
.9116
.9325
.9406

Here’s a 15-minute chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—give me a break

This pair's behavior is the type that can cause perfectly decent traders to start frothing at the mouth. It looks like it's building strength and then it doesn't quite perform. My long from Friday (at 1.0527) stopped out at 1.0495 for -32 pips. The behavior is indicative of a confused market. It will find its direction eventually. If it can break above 1.0547/79/85, the uptrend should resume. If it breaks below 1.0407, there may be further lows. I'd prefer a break either way to see which way to trade.

This morning USDCAD touched a low of 1.0431. The .618 retracement of the move up from 1.0225 is here at 1.0436 so this is a critical support level. I just bought a small position at 1.0444 since it's at support and the stop can be tight.

Support:

1.0407
1.0312
1.0367
1.0245
1.0208/25

Resistance:

1.0467
1.0500/06
1.0547/79/85
1.0636/44
1.0771/76/81
1.0848
1.0988


Here's the three-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—in channel

This pair is edging up and I'm hoping it reaches .9038/65 where I'll try a small short. This is the top of an up-sloping channel and is also where the .618 retracement comes in from the move down from .9330. I've entered a sell order there. Usually, I don't do this. One of Gann's 28 trading rules was "Never limit your orders. Trade at the market." It's a good rule because it keeps you focused on the market's moves and psychology. While I'll watch for that level, I want the trade if the market only briefly touches it. The other thing about that level is the nice tight stop I'll be able to have.

Support:

.8890
.8814/48
.8785
.8618
.8578

Resistance:

.9000
.9038/65
.9093
.9142


Here's the three-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPCHF—also dropping

The UK pairs are weak in general as though the UK has any more to worry about than Eurozone. I shorted this pair earlier today at 1.6856. It's currently caught in a small down-trending channel with a tiny 55-pip range (1.6833 to 88). It's also at the top of a much broader channel. The lower boundary on this is 1.6548. I've moved my stop to breakeven so let's see if it can tumble.

Support:

1.6833
1.6793
1.6734/52
1.6700/08

Resistance:

1.6888
1.6952
1.6994/1.7000

Here's the three-hour chart.


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—3-hour chart

I'm still short in this pair from 1.5871. I just added another small short position at 1.5677. Currently, you can see on the three-hour chart that the pair is coiling in a constricting range. A break upward, which looks increasingly unlikely would target 1.5765, first, and then back up to the psychological 1.60. A break downward would target 1.5597 and then 1.5535 (the recent low), and perhaps down to 1.5354. The RSI is nudging below its trend line on the three-hour chart. If price follows, then perhaps it will depart this sludge and become interesting.

Here's the 3-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—lethargic

My last short position from Friday (taken at 1.3677) profit stopped out on Friday at 1.3586 for + 91 pips. These are terrible markets if you're anything but an extremely short-term trader trading on small time frames. However, the market won't stay this way forever.

The Euro hit resistance this morning at 1.3683. I shorted at 1.3653. I'm not overly optimistic about this. The pair is lethargic and the divergence with RSI on the daily chart reflects the loss of momentum for downward movement. That said, it was just repelled by the top of the short-term upward channel on the three-hour chart. In addition, the downtrend line from the January high of 1.4579 is coming in at 1.3680. This should offer decent resistance. On the other hand, there's quite a bit of near-term support down to 1.3532. If the pair can break below that, then the downtrend should resume.


Support:

1.3605
1.3582/88
1.3532
1.3485
1.3405
1.3361
1.3263
1.3000

Resistance:

1.3680
1.3700/35
1.3801/41
1.3900

Here's the three-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—weekly chart

The EW count suggests the pair is in a third wave, possibly beginning 3 of 3. If true, there's lots of downside ahead. Shorting rallies seems the best approach. This pair needs to get out of the doldrums and start moving. It's postponing the inevitable if down is indeed its direction and it's annoying the Euro bulls if it's going to go up.

Support:

1.3532/86
1.3361
1.3263
1.3000

Resistance:

1.3735
1.3801/41
1.3900

Here's the weekly chart:




© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—weekly chart

I'm not sure the EW count adds anything to my analysis for Aussie so I've removed it from this chart. It's possible the pair is in a B wave that has been going on since the bottom in late 2008 but I can see the case for other counts. As is often true, the pair couldn't sustain its steep uptrend and has fallen off from that. Note, though, how many months it continued, reflecting in part, strong commodity prices. One could make an argument for a bull flag on the weekly chart. This would result in a huge upward move if it were true. The sideways action should resolve soon and it will be interesting to see the effect that the doji, caused by Friday's close on the daily chart, will have.

Support:

.8785
.8618
.8578

Resistance:

.8921
.8945/87
.9000



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—weekly chart

GBPUSD shows a rounding on the weekly chart. This is even more pronounced on the daily chart. At first, it looked as though it could have been a J pattern or a scallop but prices since broke below the bottom of that pattern so it's unlikely to be a continuation pattern. The 1.7045 resistance was also a clue that the upward move would be unsuccessful. If the EW count is correct (bug if), the pair is finishing a correction and the next move should be down. I am short in this pair from 1.5871; it's currently at 1.5679. It's been narrowly trading the last couple of days (as have many pairs) so energy should be building for a bigger move.

Support:

1.5584
1.5535

Resistance:

1.5707/19
1.5768
1.5851

Here's the weekly chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD--weekly chart

To put the recent bobbing around of the pair in context, it's helpful to look at the weekly chart. From the low in 2007, you can see the pair is in an uptrend. It would have to break below 1.0312 to violate this uptrend line. You can also see fairly stiff resistance as the downtrend lines come into play. If the Elliott Wave count is correct, this pair should be taking off fairly soon. We'll have to see:

Support:

1.0407/39/67
1.0312
1.0367
1.0208/25

Resistance:

1.0547/79/85
1.0636/44
1.0771/76/81
1.0848
1.0988



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.