Friday, May 27, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
EURUSD—small bounce
Yesterday, I traced out the move down from 1.4346 as being impulsive with the price action rise from 1.3970 possibly being a 4th wave. That wave topped at 1.4133 and price began to decline but only got as far as 1.4014 (two candles on the hourly chart were at that low). Since then, price has risen again with two candles topping on the hourly chart at 1.4094. Calculating this as an ABC correction from 1.4014 with A topping at 1.4093 and B dropping to 1.4044, results in 1.4093 being .618 of the A wave. Wave C would equal A at 1.4123 and would be 1.618 of A at 1.4173. However, if it continues to the latter two levels it is solidly within the resistance zone I wrote about yesterday of 1.4106 to 1.4162. In addition, an inviolate Elliott rule is that wave four cannot enter wave one's territory and that would be no higher than 1.4139. Therefore, resistance is at 1.4139. Beyond that, is 1.4233 and 1.4346.
The highest probability appears to be another move down. Note, though, that the pair is forming an ascending triangle on the hourly chart.
On the daily chart (not shown), the 1.3970 low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970, 1.3937 and 1.3863. 1.3521 is the daily uptrend line from last June.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The highest probability appears to be another move down. Note, though, that the pair is forming an ascending triangle on the hourly chart.
On the daily chart (not shown), the 1.3970 low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970, 1.3937 and 1.3863. 1.3521 is the daily uptrend line from last June.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
EURUSD—resistance
Euro, after dropping to a low of 1.3970, has bounced to a high of 1.4119. Here it is struggling with a strong resistance zone of 1.4106 to 1.4162 that previously served as support. The .382 retracement of the move from 1.2874 to 1.4942 is at 1.4153.
On the hourly chart, price action looks impulsive with the rise to 1.4124 a possible fourth wave.
Note, that on the daily chart (not shown), the low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970 and 1.3863.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the hourly chart, price action looks impulsive with the rise to 1.4124 a possible fourth wave.
Note, that on the daily chart (not shown), the low formed a hammer so a drop below would be bad news. Support is at 1.3970 and 1.3863.
Here is the hourly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—daily chart
Aussie is drifting down within the downward sloping rectangle. The low so far is 1.0480 although it bounced a bit from there to 1.0580. On the hourly chart, the price action looks somewhat sluggish. The low of 1.0480 was below the .382 retracement of the move from .9706 to 1.1012. However, as I blogged last week, there is support in this area. The retracement of .382 of the move from .9537 to 1.1012 is 1.0439. The C leg equals the A leg of the ABC correction at 1.0414. The weekly S1 pivot calculation was 1.0444. The price objective from the triangle last week on the hourly chart was 1.0443.
The 50% retracement of 9706/11012 is around 1.0353—that is a good possibility if prices sink below the 1.0480 low. On the hourly chart, that low resulted in a hammer. The lower boundary of the rectangle is currently at 1.0293.
From a bullish perspective, this entire price action could be a bull flag on the daily chart. If so, price can still sink to the bottom of the flag (the downward sloping rectangle) at 1.0293 before rallying. There is still a long-term uptrend line in play from last June with a second touch in March. However, the market is clearly readjusting.
Here is the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The 50% retracement of 9706/11012 is around 1.0353—that is a good possibility if prices sink below the 1.0480 low. On the hourly chart, that low resulted in a hammer. The lower boundary of the rectangle is currently at 1.0293.
From a bullish perspective, this entire price action could be a bull flag on the daily chart. If so, price can still sink to the bottom of the flag (the downward sloping rectangle) at 1.0293 before rallying. There is still a long-term uptrend line in play from last June with a second touch in March. However, the market is clearly readjusting.
Here is the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Sorry about no posts today
I'm working on a project and just didn't have the time. I'll be back tomorrow.
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