Friday, December 17, 2010
Thin holiday markets
Be careful trading over the next couple of weeks. The markets lack liquidity. This can make for extreme moves that don't mean much technically but that can play havoc with your stops. Best is to sit it out and wait for next year. One thing I'll be doing over the next couple of weeks is working on my business plan which I address each year. This is a plan for trading because trading is my business. I'll be sharing parts of it with you over the next couple of weeks.
USDCHF—weekly
USDCHF managed to hold its weekly uptrend line with the swing low to .9560 earlier this week. Today it has pushed one pip lower which doesn't seem like much but it's clearly trying to base. On the three-hour chart (not shown), there has been a robust push off this low so we'll have to see if the pair can pull it off. On the monthly chart (not shown), the high this month is within a couple of pips higher than last month. The best case scenario—basing and then moving on up to 1.0154/68, 1.0330 and above—is only going to succeed if the USD index moves up. Support is at .9558 and .9463. RSI has dipped slightly below its uptrend line on the weekly chart. If price follows then the lows may indeed come back into play.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USD Index—Daily
The USD index has managed to hold above its 77.98 low this week and while this is good news for the USD it also raises the bar a bit in that it now should hold above 78.82, Tuesday's low. On the daily chart below one could argue that an ABC correction is in place. Nearby resistance is 81.44 and a move over 83.60, the next resistance, would be very bullish for the buck. Again, though, with the thin holiday markets, it's not clear this will happen next week. Support is 77.98 and 75.63.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—higher
EURGBP managed to move higher this week and with the range of .8526 to .8553 it will be an outside week on the weekly chart. It's also managed two higher highs and one higher low between so this is positive. I took partial profits on my long at .8548. Had I been actively trading this week I might have closed it completely and entered a short. Yet today it has managed to push a bit higher. It looks possible that the pair will hit its next resistance at .8598 and possibly beyond at .8638 and .8731. Above that would be bullish—we'll have to see. In the illiquid holiday markets it seems unlikely the pair could gain that kind of traction.
Support is at .8450/30 and .8334 (doji low from 12/3 week)
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8450/30 and .8334 (doji low from 12/3 week)
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—nowhere week
Euro has gone absolutely nowhere this week staying within a 316 pip range which is essentially the same range it has been in since the beginning of the month. On Tuesday there was a spike high to 1.3498; the low was 1.3182 yesterday and it's hovering not too far above there as of this morning. Bears would like to see a weekly close below 1.31 which seems a bit out of reach; bulls, on the other hand, would swoon over a weekly close above 1.35. This is out of reach.
The spike high on Tuesday is reminiscent of the Euro's spike high Dec. 18, 2008 (1.4721). On a weekly basis, it's causing a long upper shadow which is essentially bearish. A close below 1.3164 (last week's low) would result in an outside weekly candle. This may set the stage for further moves down. As I wrote Monday, I still believe the downward angle on the weekly chart is a bit steep so I'd like to see a rally to short.
Where might that rally go? The most recent high was 1.3359. You can see on the daily chart below that the Euro hasn't managed to break above a former uptrend line. That line is about 1.3392. Certainly a move to 1.35 would warrant a short position.
Support is at 1.3150, 1.3103, and 1.2969/33 (a fib and a speed line that has previously served as support).
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The spike high on Tuesday is reminiscent of the Euro's spike high Dec. 18, 2008 (1.4721). On a weekly basis, it's causing a long upper shadow which is essentially bearish. A close below 1.3164 (last week's low) would result in an outside weekly candle. This may set the stage for further moves down. As I wrote Monday, I still believe the downward angle on the weekly chart is a bit steep so I'd like to see a rally to short.
Where might that rally go? The most recent high was 1.3359. You can see on the daily chart below that the Euro hasn't managed to break above a former uptrend line. That line is about 1.3392. Certainly a move to 1.35 would warrant a short position.
Support is at 1.3150, 1.3103, and 1.2969/33 (a fib and a speed line that has previously served as support).
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Monday, December 13, 2010
USD Index Monthly
The shadow of November's candle on the monthly chart below dipped below the uptrend line which is not good news. That particular low of 75.63 came on the day the Fed announced the latest news of quantitative easing (November 4th). It does need to hold and better would be holding the low of 77.98 from later in the month. However, as we're in the thin holiday markets extreme moves can happen without meaning much technically.
There's a lot of indecision out there. The USD is poised technically to go higher yet the last three days of last week were basically sideways movement. Nonetheless, with the strong support and the strong November candle, one would expect from the monthly chart that the next move will be up. Here's the chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There's a lot of indecision out there. The USD is poised technically to go higher yet the last three days of last week were basically sideways movement. Nonetheless, with the strong support and the strong November candle, one would expect from the monthly chart that the next move will be up. Here's the chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—weekly
The high for the week just ended was 1.3425 just a dozen pips or so below the high of the week ended Dec. 3. Note that just like the EURGBP, the angle of descent is steep and normally the steeper the angle the less likely it is to be sustained. However, the net sideways movement of the last few days show the same indecision present with many pairs and while there's good evidence for additional moves down, the pair needs to stay below 1.3788 to keep the bears satisfied. They'll be thrilled if it gets below 1.3788.
Today's action will be interesting to watch but again, thin holiday markets are having an impact. Still, let's see if the German finance minister's strong statement of support on Friday for the Euro has an impact. Sounds a bit desperate to me.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Today's action will be interesting to watch but again, thin holiday markets are having an impact. Still, let's see if the German finance minister's strong statement of support on Friday for the Euro has an impact. Sounds a bit desperate to me.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—weekly
The low of the doji from the week ending Dec. 3 (.8334) must hold or the pair is definitely on its way down. Below that is support at .8204, .8068 and .7856. Note on the weekly chart below how steep the angle of descent is—it's not likely that will continue without some sort of correction upwards. If it does reverse upwards, resistance is at .8514, .8549, and .8598.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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