Friday, June 4, 2010

EURUSD and USDCAD—update

I closed one of my shorts (from 1.2254) for +239 pips and took partial profits on one of my USDCAD longs for +132 pips.

USDCAD—update

I took some partial profits on my long from 1.0389 at +102 pips. The pair made it through the 1.0463 price but is hesitating around 1.05.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURO—update

I was going to do my update on this after the NFP numbers but there has been such a fall that it's worth looking at. Did the French PM really say he wasn't concerned about the Euro's fall? I wonder if he is now. Loose lips and all that…especially in thin markets.

The pair's low so far is 1.2038. If it breaks below that 1.20 psychological support, we could be seeing mid-teens sooner rather than later. However, it's not going to go straight down. As a result, I took some profits off from my short at 1.2254 for +195 pips. I had also added another short before this brou-ha-ha at 1.2167. It's realistic to expect a bounce. I'm always suspicious when a pair moves before a news release. Does someone know something? We'll see.

Here's the 15-minute chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—nice jump after data release

The USD, after a drop, then bounced on Canadian employment numbers (there wasn't really anything in those numbers to cause this but that's the nature of the beast). I added to my long so I now have two positions—one from 1.0389 and a smaller one from 1.0426. However the pair is running into the 1.0463 area resistance. Let's see what happens.

Here's a 15-minute chart.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—uncertainty

My long from.8309 profit stopped out at .8437 for +128 pips.

The pair just grazed a short-term uptrend line from June 2 with its low of .8417 this mornng and is hovering near a daily speed line. There's some uncertainly about this pair as one can see from the shadows on the candles on the hourly chart. However, what could have been a good sell signal yesterday hasn't really panned out and my impression is that the pair is in an overall corrective pattern.

Support is at .8405, .8330, .8276, .8163, .8134, .8071/67, .8000, .7932 and .7830. Resistance is at .8523, .8570/83, .8640 and .8793.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—downtrend line magnet

The downtrend line from May 10th seems to be acting as a magnet with price touching it overnight at 1.2216 and then falling back. Expect uncertainly through the US NFP numbers this morning and perhaps even after that but another push down is possible, especially if it goes below the short-term uptrend line at 1.2161. I'm still short from from 1.2254 and took partial profits yesterday at 1.2168 for +86 pips.

Resistance is at 1.2216, 1. 2334/54, 1.2453, 1.2588, 1.2660, 1.2720 and 1.2803. Support is at 1.2176/61, 1.2132 (50% of Euro's lifetime high/low or 1.6038/.8225), 1.2111, 1.20000 (psychological), 1.1826, 1.1641 and 1.1432.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—Heading back to support before data

The remainder of my long profit-stopped out at 1.0375 for +20 pips. The pair now seems intent on heading back to test support again which ranges from 1.0348 down to 1.0275. Yesterday's low was 1.0334. This morning's low (as of 6:22 AM EST) is 1.0368. Two uptrend lines are coming in at 1.0305 and 1.0348.

The 100-day SMA is at 1.0355. Why do I care about the 100-day SMA? Because it has served as a floor for prices the last two days so it offers some validation of support in this area.

The high yesterday was only 1.0463, lower than Wednesday's 1.0572. The conclusion one could reach is that there's no hope this pair can get going in a sustained uptrend. This may be true for the near term; it may be true for longer than that. But a look at the weekly shows higher lows since 2007. The pair needs to drop below .9990 for this uptrend line to be violated. Not that it can't do that but then one could draw another line at the new low, ha-ha. The uneasy fact remains that until the pair drops below the Nov. '07 .9058 low, the secular downtrend is at least on hold and quite possibly over. Offsetting this is that the retracement from the 1.3065 high in Mar. '09 has been deep which hints the underlying uptrend is weak. If you see that decline as an Elliott Wave two, however, one would expect it to be deep since they often retrace almost all of wave one. What's also significant to me is that momentum, reflected by RSI, is looking pretty good, not dropping into oversold areas by any means and is, in fact, maintaining a nice upward trajectory.

If you place your short-term trading within a longer-term context (as I do), this would suggest that buying pullbacks is the way to go. Always, though, carefully and with tight stops. Canadian employment numbers are coming out at 7AM EST and the US NFP at 8:30AM EST so there may be some gyrations in price this morning.

Resistance is at 1.0375/95, 1.0463, 1.0573/81 (strong), 1.0610, 1.0719 and 1.0855. Support is at 1.0348, 1.0334/27, 1.0305, 1.0283/75, 1.0150, 1.0100 and 1.0045.










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

USD Index—Weekly

For the last three days the index has had trouble with the 87.45 area but if it clears this then it will be on track to reach the downtrend line at 88.70 that I blogged about on May 6th. On the daily chart (not shown) there's a bullish pennant that, if it pans out, could get the index to 93. However it will be interesting to watch to see if this week's close tomorrow results in a doji. If so, and if then next week's candle closes deep within last week's up candle, this would complete an evening star formation.

Here's the weekly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—Key support held

The pair rallied after it touched key support at 1.0334 although it will be interesting to see how it does as it approaches key resistance at 1.0429. My long from 1.0355 is safely profit-stopped and I just took a little off the table for partial profits of +60 pips.

Resistance is at 1.0429, 1.0573/81 (strong), 1.0610, 1.0719 and 1.0855. Support is at 1.0395/75, 1.0334/27, 1.0283/75, 1.0150, 1.0100 and 1.0045.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—dancing on downtrend line

Euro is dancing on a short-term downtrend line from May 10th with traders undecided which way to go. For now it's not straying far from its 50% level of its historic price range. It may stay like this until after NFP tomorrow and as long as no more bad news comes out of Europe as to debt crisis (or anything else). What was left of my short from 1.2321 profit-stopped out at 1.2259 for +62 pips. The short I added at 1.2232 stopped at breakeven. I added a new short this morning at 1.2254 because the pair still can't seem to get any traction going for a rally but I'm watching it closely. The pair is nibbling at the short-term RSI uptrend line and if price starts to get below the blue uptrend line then it may be headed back down to the 1.21 area.

Resistance is at 1. 2334/54, 1.2453, 1.2588, 1.2660, 1.2720 and 1.2803. Support is at 1.2233, 1.2176, 1.2132 (50% of Euro's lifetime high/low or 1.6038/.8225), 1.2111, 1.20000 (psychological), 1.1826, 1.1641 and 1.1432.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—resistance

I did go long yesterday at .8309 and just took partial profits at +180 pips. While I'm loathe to get out of a winning trade, I'm thinking of closing it and going short since it looks as though the correction may be over and the pair might not make it to my price target of .8640 after all.

The pair has reached a high of .8523 so far today, not quite near a strong resistance area of .8785 (fib confluence zone and prior support). It has now fallen back a bit, including falling out of RSI overbought on the hourly chart which can be a good sell signal in an overall downtrend.

Support is at .8405, .8330, .8276, .8163, .8134, .8071/67, .8000, .7932 and .7830. Resistance is at .8523, .8570/83, .8640 and .8793. Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—at support

The pair continued to drop from yesterday's high of 1.0573 right past the pattern price target of 1.0423 to a low, so far this morning, of 1.0334. Here it begins running into key support, ranging from 1.0275 to 1.0327. 1.0275 is an up trendline from the April lows; it's also near the 1.0283 which is .618 retracement of the move from .9920 to 1.0855. 1.0325 hits a speed line as well as prior support. Additional support is at 1.0150, 1.0100 and 1.0045.

I bought at 1.0355 which was a bit aggressive. However, I can have a really tight stop and there is positive divergence on the hourly chart. Momemtum is going to be important on an hourly basis as it will offer clues to the general sense of risk aversion.

Resistance is nearby at 1.0395 (fib confluence). After that it's at 1.0429, 1.0573/81 (strong), 1.0610, 1.0719 and 1.0855.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

USDCAD—update

USDCAD has dropped below 1.0498 to a low, so far, of 1.0466. My long stopped out for -30 pips.

The head and shoulders pattern was confirmed at 1.0498 and the price target is 1.0424 (high of head at 1.0572 minus neck at 1.0498 = 74 pips. This 74 is subtracted from the neck for 1.0424 as the target). If it was a diamond pattern, the target is 1.0454 (height of diamond at tallest part subtracted from break out point). Since 1.0423 was support anyway, I'd expect it to hold if it gets near there.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—choppy

Choppy price action has probably set some teeth on edge but the pair is nothing if not bearish. I'm still short from 1.2321 where I took partial profits at +132 pips since there's quite a bit of chop in the pair as it nears some long term support and seems to try to be basing after its low of 1.2176 this morning. I added a short position late yesterday at 1.2232 which is at breakeven.

Resistance is at 1.2274, 1.2334/43, 93, 1.2453, 1.2574/99, 1.2670, 1.2740 and 1.2803. Support is at 1.2176, 1.2132 (50% of Euro's lifetime high/low or 1.6038/.8225), 1.2111, 1.20000 (psychological), 1.1826, 1.1641 and 1.1432.

Here's the one-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—at support but weak

The remainder of my long from .8327 profit-stopped out at +15 pips.

I'm watching the hourly chart closely. It's at support but there is also downward pressure on the pair which is partly represented by the descending triangle. If it can hold this support (not drop below .8276) a long might be justified.
Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—resistance

My long from 1.0460 stopped out at breakeven. I rebought this morning at 1.0524. The pair did attract sellers as I wrote it would at its high of 1.0573 earlier but it hasn't substantially dropped back and momentum, as represented by RSI, looks good. Depending on how you look at the chart (and here is where pattern interpretation becomes very subjective) it's either coiling in a symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart, forming a diamond pattern, or forming a head and shoulders (which won't be confirmed unless it drops below the trough at 1.0498). If it's a diamond pattern the formation is relatively rare and it also leads to quick moves when it breaks out so the stop should be tight. This it can be, either below the triangle or below the overnight low of 1.0498 (which is also the potential H&S low). The pair is violating both an RSI and price uptrend line as well so it's questionable whether the correction is quite over.

If it is, USDCAD still must get through that resistance at 1.0573/81. It's strong resistance which is near the the 5/26 low, a fib confluence area and polarity. Additional resistance is at 1.0610, 1.0719 and 1.0855. Support is at 1.0498, 1.0423/13, 1.0398, 1.0274, 1.0247 and 1.0100.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

USDCAD—ranging

USDCAD has been largely ranging from 1.0404 (May 19 low) to a high of 1.0855. It seems to be drifting around the lower part of that range. Even though Canada's central bank hiked the overnight rate to .5 this morning, the decision was widely expected. The impact on price was that it dropped to a low of 1.0423 but since then it seems to be trying to base. As a result, I went long with a tight stop at 1.0460. I took some partial profits at +34 pips and have my stop at breakeven. It's likely that sellers will pile in around 1.0578/81 which reflects the 5/26 low, the .382 retracement of 1.0855 to 1.0413, a fib confluence area and polarity. It's also near the 10-day SMA.

Resistance is at 1.0578/81, 1.0610, 1.0719 and 1.0855. Support is at 1.0423/13, 1.0404, 1.0247 and 1.0100.

Here's the hourly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—update

Price action is heating up now that the Euro has touched a high of 1.2354. It has certainly stopped out some trader's short positions in its little rally but the high has probably brought in new shorts so there may be something of a standstill here. I tried a short at 1.2321 with a very tight stop so let's see what shakes out. If the pair can get through the short-term downtrend line and other resistance, it may be worth stopping and reversing.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—update

I took partial profits at +96 pips. Let's see if the pair can make it through the nearby resistance of .8453. If it can then I may add a position.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—bearish

When last I blogged about Euro last Friday morning, I had long positions from 1.2165, 1.2208, and 1.2254. The market profit-stopped me out of all of them at +55 pips, +12 pips and breakeven respectively.

The pair may be trying for a run at 1.2343, the downtrend line from the May 10 high. At that point, I'd probably short the pair since it can't seem to get a lot of traction going for a rally and since it hit a new low earlier this morning of 1.2111. That's also in an area of prior resistance and fib retracement from the May 20th high. And the sentiment remains bearish.

On the other hand, 1.2132 was 50% of Euro's lifetime high/low or 1.6038/.8225 and the 1.2111 is not a great deal below that. On the hourly chart there is slight positive divergence. So the area may serve as support, at least for a while. However, unlike last week, I can't work up any enthusiasm for longs.

Resistance is at 1.2334/43, 93, 1.2453, 1.2574/99, 1.2670, 1.2740 and 1.2803. Support is at 1.2204, 1.2132 (50% of Euro's lifetime high/low or 1.6038/.8225), 1.2111, 1.20000 (psychological), 1.1826, 1.1641 and 1.1432.

Here is the one-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—at support

The market profit-stopped me out of all long postions from last week—the remainder of the one from .8093 for +208 pips and the ones from .8390, .8436, and .8443 at +45 pips, +17 pips, and +8 pips respectively. I just opened a new long at .8327. The low of .8285 makes a tight stop possible.

However to ignore that there is downward pressure on the pair is foolish and, as a result, one has to be ready to stop and reverse if necessary. On the other hand, pairs such as the AUDUSD have seen steep drops so a period of consolidation is possible. I don't think the pair is going back to real bullishness and I don't think parity with the USD is something we're going to see anytime soon. But it may consolidate. Should it drop below .8067, it will be deadly because .8071/67 has been a double low for the last two weeks. It's not a true double bottom because there should be some periods between the two lows but if it is significant that the market has stopped there two weeks in a row.

Resistance will be found at .8400, .8453 (hourly trendline from 5/28 and .386 of .9078 to .8067), .8551, .8573 (.386 of .9078 to .8067), and .8640. Support is at .8282,.8163, .8134, .8071/67, .8000, .7932 and .7830.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Memorial Day

No trading today because of this US holiday. For more information about what this holiday means:

http://www.usmemorialday.org/backgrnd.html