I'll be resuming blog posts on Monday, Nov. 29th. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Thanksgiving Holiday
I'll be resuming blog posts on Monday, Nov. 29th. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
AUDUSD—near support
Low so far is .9776 which is definitely in the support zone. This zone extends down to .9725. A rally from here, which it's trying to manage, might provide a good short opportunity. If the pair fails at .9725, .9589 is the uptrend line from June which is also close to a weekly EMA.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—update
The low so far is now 1.3438. I took partial profits at +195 pips and I'd expect a bounce here. The extent of any bounce will be a clue as to what the near-term future holds.
USDCAD—basing
USDCAD's behavior indicates a price base in the 9978/29 zone. In addition, unless price closes near that zone, the November candle on the monthly chart will be a hammer. Since its shadow low is at support it strengthens the pattern. RSI on the monthly chart has maintained good levels as well which hints the trend is turning to bullish. Hard to believe, I know, and there are certainly no guarantees with the banana republic economics that seems to pass for economic policy in the US but I can only report on what I see on the chart.
The pair is currently nearing its November high of 1.0262 so one could buy on a pullback or a break of that price. Stops will depend on risk/reward calculations but shouldn't be below 1.0095.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair is currently nearing its November high of 1.0262 so one could buy on a pullback or a break of that price. Stops will depend on risk/reward calculations but shouldn't be below 1.0095.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—near support zone
Low so far this morning is 1.3493, tantalizingly close to last week's hammer low of 1.3447. As I wrote yesterday, the weekly 20 EMA (currently at 1.3457) served as support last week. 1.3436 is 50% retracement of the move from 1.2588 to 1.4283. All this adds up to a support zone. Additional support is at 1.3348/35 (a fibo and the August high), 1.3270 (weekly uptrend line) and 1.3235/33. Resistance is at 1.3634 and 1.3786, 1.3800 and 1.3865. Prices over 1.40 are mere bullish hopes and dreams at this point.
Is this a resumption of a bigger correction, one that could take Euro down to at least 1.20 and possibly further? It's not entirely clear it is—certainly the bears hope so. We'll just have to watch it over the next week or so. We're entering an illiquid market in the NorAm time zone as the US moves towards Thanksgiving so better clues may be detected during European market hours. We're also moving to year end when many will take profits. Since Euro has been in an uptrend since June, it's going to be impacted by this which will add to the pressure on prices (excess supply).
On the three hour chart, one can see it has dropped below an uptrend line and isn't yet oversold. Lower lows are likely. I'm short from 1.3638 and will probably take some profits in the support zone.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Is this a resumption of a bigger correction, one that could take Euro down to at least 1.20 and possibly further? It's not entirely clear it is—certainly the bears hope so. We'll just have to watch it over the next week or so. We're entering an illiquid market in the NorAm time zone as the US moves towards Thanksgiving so better clues may be detected during European market hours. We're also moving to year end when many will take profits. Since Euro has been in an uptrend since June, it's going to be impacted by this which will add to the pressure on prices (excess supply).
On the three hour chart, one can see it has dropped below an uptrend line and isn't yet oversold. Lower lows are likely. I'm short from 1.3638 and will probably take some profits in the support zone.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, November 22, 2010
EURUSD—weekly
On the weekly chart the 20 EMA (currently at 1.3470) supported the Euro last week. Its low was 1.3447. Early this morning, the rally from that low reached 1.3786 (.382 of the move down from 1.4282 to 1.3447). Euro failed there. The low since then has been 1.3616. This is a fib confluence point near the 50% point of that move as well as the .382 of 1.2588/1.4283. It makes sense that Euro is trying to rally from this. If it can't—well, maybe we'll finally see a necessary correction.
If the pair breaks the round number at 1.36, support on the weekly chart is at 1.3447 (the hammer), 1.3335 (August high) and 1.3270 (weekly uptrend line from June). RSI has broken below its uptrend line so it's reasonable to watch for whether price might do so as well. There's a resistance zone between 1.3800 and 1.3865 (round number, Elliott Wave count, 50% fibo, and polarity).
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If the pair breaks the round number at 1.36, support on the weekly chart is at 1.3447 (the hammer), 1.3335 (August high) and 1.3270 (weekly uptrend line from June). RSI has broken below its uptrend line so it's reasonable to watch for whether price might do so as well. There's a resistance zone between 1.3800 and 1.3865 (round number, Elliott Wave count, 50% fibo, and polarity).
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—rally faltering
The rally from .9725 appears to have failed at the 50% retracement point, lending credibility to an argument that the pair could fall to at least the short-term uptrend line at .9750. The .9725 was the doji low on the weekly chart so one could expect it to serve as support if there's a retest. I'm short but will lighten the position as it approaches .9750/25. Should .9725 fail, .9589 is the uptrend line from June which is also close to a weekly EMA.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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