Thursday, November 26, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
AUDUSD—Hesitating at .9300
My long position yesterday from .9190 reached its profit target overnight at .9260 (+70 pips). Had I awoken early enough I might have moved my target as I usually trail stops but there you go. I didn’t and I’m out. It’s hesitating a bit below the round number of .9300. I’ll take another look at this pair next week.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—Stumbling and staggering
The evening star I pointed out yesterday on the three-hour chart proved out as the warning that the pair was turning back from 1.0644, taking my trade out at +10 pips. That’s barely enough profit for the organic turkey and a good bottle of bubbly. Well I’ve made hundreds of pips on this pair both last month and this, so I’ll stay chipper. 1.0644 is also polarity, meaning it has served as both support and resistance in the past. I’ve marked some of those points with red arrows on the chart.
The support levels one can look for are:
1.0530—top of the diamond pattern from last week. But it’s merrily blowing past this.
1.0496—daily uptrend line
1.0418—Nov.11 low
1.0379—Oct. 21 low
1.0272—going to the dogs low
1.0208—if this doesn’t hold then it’s the bye-bye low
Resistance, although talk of such a thing seems over-optimistic at this moment in time, is at 1.0644, 1.0734, and 1.0870.
Remember, that while the pair may indeed be basing, we're in an overall downtrend from March. If it can't make it out of that, it can't make it out. But as I said yesterday, major holidays such as Thanksgiving, particularly during USA trading hours can cause whimsical trading moves. Probably best to give it a break until after the holiday.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The support levels one can look for are:
1.0530—top of the diamond pattern from last week. But it’s merrily blowing past this.
1.0496—daily uptrend line
1.0418—Nov.11 low
1.0379—Oct. 21 low
1.0272—going to the dogs low
1.0208—if this doesn’t hold then it’s the bye-bye low
Resistance, although talk of such a thing seems over-optimistic at this moment in time, is at 1.0644, 1.0734, and 1.0870.
Remember, that while the pair may indeed be basing, we're in an overall downtrend from March. If it can't make it out of that, it can't make it out. But as I said yesterday, major holidays such as Thanksgiving, particularly during USA trading hours can cause whimsical trading moves. Probably best to give it a break until after the holiday.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
USDCAD—Long again
My two long trades from last week were profit stopped out at +100 and +10 pips respectively during yesterday’s dip.
I bought again yesterday at 1.0563 and, this morning, moved my stop to ten pips over breakeven. On the three-hour chart, the overall trend is up with higher highs and higher lows but there has been a short-term correction. 1.0567 and 1.0490 are support levels (the short-and longer-term uptrend lines). If the pair dips, I’ll probably buy again, depending on what else is going on.
What bothers me on the three-hour chart is the RSI. While it hasn’t become greatly oversold (below 30) on the dips, it also needs to push back above the trend line. In addition, there’s a potential evening star forming after a small uptrend. I’ve circled this on the chart. The current candle needs to complete as a black candle that closes well inside the long white one two candles back to confirm the pattern.
One concern this week is that in the USA it’s a holiday week with Thanksgiving on Thursday. Moves, especially those during USA trading hours as the week goes on, are likely to be insignificant for next week. Of course, that doesn’t mean these moves can’t and won’t take out stops. Just one of the realities of trading. I usually don’t trade around major holidays. For one thing, it’s a time for other things such as eating too much and reading (or watching movies about) heartfelt and sentimental family stories that have nothing to do with reality. For another, give it a break already. Taking a day or two off from trading can be very healthy.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I bought again yesterday at 1.0563 and, this morning, moved my stop to ten pips over breakeven. On the three-hour chart, the overall trend is up with higher highs and higher lows but there has been a short-term correction. 1.0567 and 1.0490 are support levels (the short-and longer-term uptrend lines). If the pair dips, I’ll probably buy again, depending on what else is going on.
What bothers me on the three-hour chart is the RSI. While it hasn’t become greatly oversold (below 30) on the dips, it also needs to push back above the trend line. In addition, there’s a potential evening star forming after a small uptrend. I’ve circled this on the chart. The current candle needs to complete as a black candle that closes well inside the long white one two candles back to confirm the pattern.
One concern this week is that in the USA it’s a holiday week with Thanksgiving on Thursday. Moves, especially those during USA trading hours as the week goes on, are likely to be insignificant for next week. Of course, that doesn’t mean these moves can’t and won’t take out stops. Just one of the realities of trading. I usually don’t trade around major holidays. For one thing, it’s a time for other things such as eating too much and reading (or watching movies about) heartfelt and sentimental family stories that have nothing to do with reality. For another, give it a break already. Taking a day or two off from trading can be very healthy.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—Long again but for how long?
The remainder of the long position was profit stopped at .9170 (+50) after the pair reached a high of .9279 yesterday. I’m glad I took some partial profits yesterday morning as it approached that level because the pair is acting a little squirrelly.
Notably, yesterday’s high was lower than the two highs last week and provided a second touch of a downward trend line on the 3-hour chart. A trend line needs to have at least two, and preferably three, touches to be valid. This short-term downtrend alone, though, isn’t cause for alarm, since up trends consist of upward movements along with corrections. On the three-hour chart, RSI has dropped into oversold a few times recently and recovered each time. The last two times, though, it didn’t reach an overbought condition. This hints at not as much momentum carrying prices up. Finally, both price and RSI are beginning to coil inside a symmetrical triangle. Is there a grand move coming up? A trend reversal? Oh, where is our crystal ball when we need it?
What I could do was go long again on the dip early this morning. I did so but with a smaller position than usual. Both the 1- and 3-hour charts formed a doji candle on the dip so the stop can be tight. Why go long at all if I’m suspicious of the overall movements? Suspicion is all I have for one thing and that’s not enough to avoid trading what is still an uptrend. If price closes below .9132 (ideally .9061), it will be time enough to think about shorting.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Notably, yesterday’s high was lower than the two highs last week and provided a second touch of a downward trend line on the 3-hour chart. A trend line needs to have at least two, and preferably three, touches to be valid. This short-term downtrend alone, though, isn’t cause for alarm, since up trends consist of upward movements along with corrections. On the three-hour chart, RSI has dropped into oversold a few times recently and recovered each time. The last two times, though, it didn’t reach an overbought condition. This hints at not as much momentum carrying prices up. Finally, both price and RSI are beginning to coil inside a symmetrical triangle. Is there a grand move coming up? A trend reversal? Oh, where is our crystal ball when we need it?
What I could do was go long again on the dip early this morning. I did so but with a smaller position than usual. Both the 1- and 3-hour charts formed a doji candle on the dip so the stop can be tight. Why go long at all if I’m suspicious of the overall movements? Suspicion is all I have for one thing and that’s not enough to avoid trading what is still an uptrend. If price closes below .9132 (ideally .9061), it will be time enough to think about shorting.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, November 23, 2009
AUD Daily Chart
The first long position I took in AUDUSD at .9119 on Friday stopped out at breakeven. I re-entered at .9120 and am still in this position. I took partial profits at 110 pips this morning and my stop is well above break even.
A look at the daily chart shows the pair is still trending upward in a bullish channel. RSI is staying in bullish levels, not dropping below 49.77 during the recent correction. This morning the USD weakened as well so commodity prices are rising which is, of course, good for this commodity currency.
On the weekly chart, the pair closed at .9147. This was below last week’s close of .9330 and the prior week’s close of .9191. This suggests the pair is either consolidating or in a congestion area.
Note that there’s divergence between price and RSI since mid-October on the daily chart. Divergence is often a sign of weakness but it can go on a long time before price reverses. It’s not tradable by itself if other clues for a potential trend reversal are not present. Friday’s candle wasn’t quite a hammer since its body was greater than 10% of its length but it had a longish, lower shadow that hinted the pair was rejecting lower prices. I’ll need to study a lower timeframe to get clues about possible reversals. Here’s the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
A look at the daily chart shows the pair is still trending upward in a bullish channel. RSI is staying in bullish levels, not dropping below 49.77 during the recent correction. This morning the USD weakened as well so commodity prices are rising which is, of course, good for this commodity currency.
On the weekly chart, the pair closed at .9147. This was below last week’s close of .9330 and the prior week’s close of .9191. This suggests the pair is either consolidating or in a congestion area.
Note that there’s divergence between price and RSI since mid-October on the daily chart. Divergence is often a sign of weakness but it can go on a long time before price reverses. It’s not tradable by itself if other clues for a potential trend reversal are not present. Friday’s candle wasn’t quite a hammer since its body was greater than 10% of its length but it had a longish, lower shadow that hinted the pair was rejecting lower prices. I’ll need to study a lower timeframe to get clues about possible reversals. Here’s the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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