Tuesday, September 21, 2010

EURGBP—Potential short

The high in this pair today, so far, has been .8470. This is getting near strong resistance in the low to mid 8500 range. .8517/20 are the monthly 10 and 20 EMA respectively, .8531 is price resistance, .8556 is a fib retracement level. On the weekly chart you can see the pair has been consolidating in what is probably the 4th wave of the move down. I'm looking for a short once it gets near .8500/31. Certainly if the pair definitively closed above that it would confirm the lows as a base. More to come on this pair. Here's the weekly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.





My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—struggling

I'm still long with two positions—one from .8913 and one from .9386.

The pair has edged up a bit more to a high of .9494 but it's really slow going and questionable at this point if the pair can pull off a return to the 2008 high of .9851. The .9494 is not that much above the potential double top (confirmation for that would be a drop below .9354) and nearby resistance is at the top of the channel at .9557, then .9750. There's some negative divergence in some time frames as well.

Support is at .9408, and .9200 and just below (.382 retracement of the move up from .8770 would be just below the psychological .9200 and near a prior high of .9176).

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—trying to base

I bought a little while ago at 1.5562. Like every trade there's risk here as there is a chance for a drop to support in the 1.54 range (fib confluence, price support, the 10 EMA on the weekly chart at 1.5456, and the 10 and 20 SMA at 1.5455 and 1.5463 respectively). However, Cable looks like it's trying to base with two three-hour candles at 1.5505. The pair had a strong push up last week so this back and fill is to be expected. My stop can be tight; in fact much below 1.5530 would indicate the pair has too much supply coming in to be able to maintain a satisfactory push up in price but in any case the stop shouldn't be much below 1.55. A stop and reverse might also be appropriate. A lot will depend on the behavior of momentum.

Resistance is the weekly downtrend line and prior high at 1.5685, 1.5729, and 1.5874. Support is in layers between 1.5500 and the weekly uptrend line of 1.5408. Below that is 1.5384 and 1.5297.

Here's a three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—stalled

There's little to say about Euro today. It hasn't yet been able to penetrate Friday's 1.3159 high. This doesn't mean it won't. The weekly bar from last week was a strong move upwards and some retracement is to be expected. Nearby resistance is the 50% of the move down from the 1.4581 high at 1.3229; the recent 1.3335 high; and the end of a C wave as well as various price targets between 1.3469 and 1.3520. A definitive close above 1.32 is necessary to make these prices possible.

Support is at 1.3020 and 1.2850 and 1.2720.

No chart today as there's not that much new.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Monday, September 20, 2010

EURUSD—weekly

The weekly chart shows Euro at resistance in a narrowing price range. Further gains would most likely result in the 10 EMA crossing up over the 20 EMA which would be bullish. Momentum also looks good on the weekly chart. Last week's candle was strong and bullish and hints that 1.2587 may have been the end of the 1.3335 to 1.2587 correction. If this is a C wave, it could extend to a minimum of 1.3487, which would bring it to some still unmet price targets such as from the inverted head and shoulders on the daily chart whose target was 1.3469 and from my three-hour P&F chart at 1.3520. First, though, it would have to clear the 1.3335 resistance.

If the downtrend line proves to be resistance then the pair could drop to 1.3000, 1.2850, and 1.2717 (the weekly uptrend line). Below that would suggest a resumption of the downtrend.

Here's the weekly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—pullback

My long position from 1.5406 profit-stopped out overnight for +179 pips. So my decision to take some profits off the table Friday at +304 pips made sense since that was a resistance level I'd previously identified and at which the pair was stalling. 1.5729 proved to be tough resistance. This makes sense when you consider that 1.5730 was a .618 retracement of the move down from1.5998 to 1.5297.

Currently, at 9:50 AM EST the pair has touched a low of 1.5554. It may be heading back to test 1.5539, 1.5449, and 1.5339 and ultimately the very strong 1.5291/5194. If the latter doesn't hold then a drop back to 1.50 is possible. Should Cable successfully retest any of those support levels and head up again it will find resistance at 1.5729 and then 1.5998 (the August 6th high). The key to trading this pair today is to watch momentum carefully on the short-term charts at those levels and then try a long, if momentum looks good, or a short if momentum seems to falter. In either case you'd want a tight stop. I'll be watching this pair today and may post again on it.

Here's the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—still trying to break through

I'm still long from .8913 and I added another position at .9386 which is profit-stopped as well.

Meanwhile, the pair is wrestling mightily with resistance. The overnight high has been .9469, not that much better than last week's .9457. It may have to drop down a bit to get the energy for a push higher.
If the pair successfully retests .9408 there could be a push up to possibly .9750. Beyond that is the 2008 high of .9851 which everyone is chattering about as a good possibility. We'll see.

Regardless, it needs to clearly break above the .9469 high. On the three-hour chart there is a potential double top and a break below .9354 will confirm it for a potential drop to .9239. There's also some negative divergence between price and RSI. However, until the pair breaks below .9200 (.382 retracement of the move up from .8770 would be just below the psychological .9200 and near a prior high of .9176) the trend is still up, at least in the short term.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.