Monday, September 20, 2010

AUDUSD—still trying to break through

I'm still long from .8913 and I added another position at .9386 which is profit-stopped as well.

Meanwhile, the pair is wrestling mightily with resistance. The overnight high has been .9469, not that much better than last week's .9457. It may have to drop down a bit to get the energy for a push higher.
If the pair successfully retests .9408 there could be a push up to possibly .9750. Beyond that is the 2008 high of .9851 which everyone is chattering about as a good possibility. We'll see.

Regardless, it needs to clearly break above the .9469 high. On the three-hour chart there is a potential double top and a break below .9354 will confirm it for a potential drop to .9239. There's also some negative divergence between price and RSI. However, until the pair breaks below .9200 (.382 retracement of the move up from .8770 would be just below the psychological .9200 and near a prior high of .9176) the trend is still up, at least in the short term.

Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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