Friday, August 20, 2010

Summer Fridays

I am not trading on summer Fridays. If you are watch out for the illiquid markets that exagerate market moves or result in dull markets, especially after the NorAm morning session.

Next week will be another awful trading week so I'm going to focus my analysis on getting ready for the 3d quarter. See you Monday.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

AUDUSD--dropping

I'm still short AUDUSD at .9030. I've taken partial profits at +105 pips.

On the daily chart (not shown), yesterday completed the three-candle evening star formation. The pair has dropped below its daily 200 SMA which is at .8950 so it will be interesting to see if that will hold price. The next logical support is .8915 (the bottom of the downward sloping channel). After that is .8843 (the 100 SMA) and then .8775 (.382 retracement level of the move up to .9222). Should this all manage to reverse upward, then resistance is at .8960. After that the top of the channel beckons at .9008 which is psychological resistance as well.

Here's the hourly chart:





© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Lackluster markets are too boring to trade

Except for the short I have in GBPJPY at 133.51 and in AUDUSD at .9043 I'm probably not going to do much more in the markets today. Both those trades have their stop at breakeven. August is just too boring for words. Maybe tomorrow will pick up.

GBPJPY—near triangle top

GBPJPY broke downward from its symmetrical triangle and then rebounded where it has now touched the top triangle line (133.75). The triangle is drawn in red lines on the chart below. As I wrote yesterday, you could expect fake-outs before a definitive break. On the three-hour chart, the pair just completed a doji candle and this could be the second candle of what will eventually become an evening star formation.

With triangles it's generally true that the closer price action gets to the apex the less significant subsequent moves will be. In addition, we're in the illiquid August market. So while a short with a tight stop would not be unreasonable, a lot of caution is warranted. If the pair breaks cleanly above 134.08, then prices may continue upwards. This could be the C leg of an ABC overall correction so again, any short positions would want that stop nearby. It's also possible the pair is going to stay in a sideways range with possibility of price ranging from 132.39 to 134.83.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

USDCAD—update

My long from 1.0258 profit-stopped out at +81 pips. Clearly, the pair lost its fight with the strong resistance it encountered yesterday.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—beginning downward move

One can trace out a five-wave decline on the three-hour chart from the 1.3335 high down to the 1.2734 low. If that's a good interpretation then Euro is currently correcting. (There's another possibility that the pair hasn't finished the drop down within the wave iv (circle) but we'll have to wait to see if that's true). The positive divergence on the 3-hour chart supports my five wave down interpretation. So where will this bounce take it? Possibly as high as 1.31 but I'd begin to look for faltering at 1.2958 which is the prior uptrend line from late June that price broke below. 1.2763/87 is good support both in price and because it's the 100 daily SMA.

Here's the three-hour chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—coiling

GBPJPY is coiling within a symmetrical triangle and is reaching a point where it should break out. It's getting too small within it to make a worthwhile trade so waiting for the break, up or down, is probably the wiser course of action. Expect fake-outs before a definitive break but given the overall trend from December of last year it's will most likely resume its downtrend. Ideal would be a break downwards and then a retest of the break line. If it started to falter again one could go short with a stop just above the break line (accounting for the daily volatility of this pair). An alternative trade is to wait for a rally back to the upward trend line and to short at that level or just above. If it does begin to move down, price targets below 125.40 are probable.

I shouldn't have to say that this pair is extremely volatile and often stops have to be too wide to make it worth trading for beginning traders. Everyone thinks they can handle it but they find out they can't. So you need to wait until you're in a position to have a tight stop.

Here's the three-hour chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—near short-term uptrend line

Cable is still hanging about its short-term uptrend line from June. Today's low so far is 1.5610; the line is at 1.5596. I did short yesterday at 1.5679 but was stopped at breakeven last night. Whatever one wants to say about this pair it's not easily giving in to downtrend pressures.

This morning I backed way up and looked more closely at the interim price swings in this pair, examining each one for momentum, degree of retracement, etc. Obviously, from the low of 1.4228, the pair is making higher highs and higher lows. It's true, as I wrote yesterday that the RSI dropped below its uptrend line. However price hasn't yet followed. Until it does, I can't completely throw my hat in the ring with the bears. In addition, the internal wave structure is strong for the up moves and corrective in the down moves. It's probable that, unless price starts to dip more clearly, I'll try a small long in Cable. The most realistic price objective is 1.5703 where it faltered yesterday. If it can make it through that then a target of 1.5998 is a possibility. That's the Aug 6th high and the .618 retracement of the drop from the July 30th high. Should price drop, support is at 1.5596, 1.5533, 1.5497/72 (200 daily SMA and price support) and 1.5443.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Monday, August 16, 2010

GBPUSD—approaching resistance

The short-term daily uptrend line gave support to GBPUSD and it bounced. It's not great that RSI dropped below its uptrend line but price not following is a good sign. Now the pair is approaching its August 12 high of 1.5714 and its behavior here should determine whether one would go long or short. If it begins to falter I'll short but if it looks robust (or as robust as one could expect for these August dog days of trading), a long is possible with a price objective of the 1.5998 (Aug 6th high and the .618 retracement of the drop from the July 30th high). A drop back to 1.5574 is possible though so a tight stop would be, as always, a good idea. Nearby support is 1.5663.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—weekly

Last week was an outside candle (high was higher than prior week and low was lower) but with long upper and lower shadows which says nobody really knows what to do. Makes sense given there's little liquidity in the market.

On the daily chart (not shown) the daily hammer for the low at 1.0351 looks as though it could be invalidated and this would not be positive since there were prior tests at 1.0332/48/49. I may try a small short at that level (it will very much depend on the behavior of RSI on the short-term charts which means momentum and price must bounce—none of this business of a bounce in momentum accompanied by a dithering about of prices) but tight stops are critical. Going back to the weekly chart, the long term uptrend line is coming in at 1.0041. You can see why you'd want a tight stop. Going below the nearby support would be reason to short the pair. Another possibility for a short is 1.0482/83 which is both resistance as well as the location of the 10 and 20 day SMA. If it reached that price and began to falter one might want to sell. Should the pair rally beyond there, the pair will encounter stiff resistance up to 1.0675.

Here's the weekly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—weekly

Very bearish close last week for AUDUSD. I'd like to see the pair bounce to the downtrend line (.9304) where I'd certainly go short. But whether it will get there or not is unclear at this point. .9222 and .9208 were the highs for the last two weeks. The psychological .9000 is right above the current offer of .8971 and this will be resistance. Staying above .8890 is important for immediate gains but more interesting is the .8775/81 level which is the .382 retracement of the move up to .9222 as well as the current 100 daily SMA.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on but with the lower liquidity one has to be careful. Here's the weekly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—weekly

The most prominent feature to me on the weekly chart is the bear flag. However that doesn't mean the Euro will tumble immediately but if it should drop below the bear flag and have a definitive close (hopefully not in the illiquid days of August) then there could be a quite significant price drop.

As of now it's trying to use the drop to 1.2734 as a base. This was somewhat below both the .382 retracement of the move up to 1.3335 (1.2771) and the 100 Daily SMA of 1.2792. 1.2734 was the result of a five-wave move down from the high on the three-hour chart. Price is now above both those levels. The next serious resistance is 1.2871, 1.2926/45, 1.3000 (psychological) and 1.3100. As to support, it's 1.2790, 1.2734, 1.2712, 1.2683/75, 1.2620 and 1.2523.

My plan is to short rallies. However caution is needed because of the lack of liquidity.

Here's the weekly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—fighting resistance

I'm still long from 1.0258. The pair is still moving sideways and is fighting some strong resistance with a fib confluence and a price resistance zone. In addition, on the weekly chart below you can see a downtrend line from March 2009 coming in at 1.0491 and the shorter-term downtrend line from May coming in at 1.0537. The pair will have to battle resistance up to 1.0677. If it clears that then price moves could become interesting. The low Friday was 1.0351 and had I been trading I would have probably added at that price.

Support is provided at 1.0400/0392 (fib confluence, polarity, 200 daily SMA), 1.0350, 1.0320 (10 and 100 daily SMA), 1.0298, 1.0274, 1.0205, 1.0152, and 1.0075. If the pair can climb above 1.0677 I'll post more resistance levels.

Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn't show because I use a different charting package for longer term charting.










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDJPY—new low

I stopped and reversed this morning. The long trade from 85.45 profit-stopped out at +20 pips whereupon I went short at 85.63 and 85.54. I've already moved my stop to breakeven on both which is a bit tight but in this illiquid market I'd rather be out then begin to incur losses if the market spikes in the opposite direction. I can always get back in.

On the daily chart (not shown) there's a potential evening star formation with Friday's close being the second candle (and star) in the formation. Only if today closes deep within the Thursday's candle will this be confirmed. That close could be at or below the current price of 85.35. The low is below Friday's low. However with RSI on the hourly chart (not shown) moving to oversold, there's a chance there will be a rally. If one wasn't already short, a better trade would be to sell that rally if it takes place.

The weekly chart shows a gloomy picture with a multi-year downtrend and a potential fifth wave down taking place.

Support is at 85.18. 84.73 and 84. Below that there's not a lot of support. Resistance is at 85.96 and 86.45.

Here's the weekly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.