Friday, March 25, 2011

Thursday, March 24, 2011

GBPUSD—broke candle low

The low so far is 1.6092 after a rally to slightly less than the .382 retracement of the move down from yesterday. The last completed hourly candle closed below the hammer low of 1.6136. This is bearish. If the pair retests the candle low of 1.6136 I may add to my short position.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—Hourly divergence

On the hourly chart (not shown), there is positive divergence between price and RSI. In addition, the last closed hourly candle was a hammer. Both of those hint at a rally. Resistance is at 1.6197, 1.6235 (.382 retracement of the move down from yesterday), and 1.6267 (price high and 50% retracement). The hammer low was 1.6136. If Cable closes below that, it invalidates the hammer. At that point, I'd look for 1.6000.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—weekly

Cable has fallen sharply to a low of 1.6136 this morning in the failure off the 1.6401 top yesterday. Looking at the move in the context of the weekly chart, one can see a symmetrical triangle with what looks like a corrective move off the 2009 low of 1.3503. There has been a series of three wave moves so far. While it has been tantalizing watching price nibble at the upper boundary, the probability is for a move back towards the triangle low at 1.4725.

Obviously, if it rallied and managed to take out the 1.6401, it would be significant. There still is a daily flag target of 1.7215. This is a valid target if one is bullish.

However, I'll confine this post to the downward potential. Three wave moves within a triangle from an Elliott perspective often relate by a Fibonacci number. These are close, but not spot on. The move from 1.7049 to 1.4229 was 80% of the move from the 1.3503 low. The move from 1.4229 to 1.6401 was 77% of the prior move.

Instead of discussing a triangle, one could also just assume an ABC correction where the C leg at 1.6420 was .618 of the A leg. This is close to where it failed yesterday.

On the way to 1.4725 Cable would find strong support at 1.6000. On the three-hour chart, this is the lower boundary of the channel I previously posted and 1.5982 was the last swing low on that chart. There, one could look at a long position but watch momentum and price behavior carefully.

I'm short this pair so I'll blog about it.

Here's the weekly chart:









© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

USD Index—Yucky

I've been blogging relative to the weekly and monthly charts that "Until the index drops below 75.62, the dollar is in a position to rise".

Any asset class down to zero is in a position to rise. However, the index has penetrated that price support which definitely increases the yuck factor for the USD. I'm not sure who could still be selling because of the overwhelming sentiment against the buck but there's definitely an absence of buyers. If, for some reason, the price did move up, you'd probably see a great rush of short covering. In other words, the move would be violent.

The next support is the swing low of 74.16.

At this point, the index might have completed a C wave of a large ABC correction. I've marked it on the weekly chart below. There's also positive divergence with RSI on the weekly chart. That's pretty much it, though, for positive thinking Elliott Wave projections. One could also create a wave count that has this dropping below 70.90 but I don't think it's going to do that.

Here's the weekly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—correction

After reaching 1.4248 yesterday morning, Euro corrected sharply. I wrote yesterday that the potential for the wave C was 1.4179 and 1.4141. Obviously, it slid through the 79 and its low so far this morning is 1.4143. This is also price support down to 1.4138 so let's see if it can rally.

I wrote yesterday that the correction low of 1.4179/41 might be a good entry point for a long position. How do I decide if it is? One tool is RSI. For example, on the hourly chart, there is slight positive divergence beginning and this could be the sign that the correction is ending. Another hint from RSI would be RSI staying above 44 on the three-hour chart. These are both things that I've illustrated in the past. Price bouncing from here would be a clue, of course. Look for a bullish candle on the shorter-term charts, first. If it fails to bounce, look for support at 1.4100, 1.4041 and 1.4000.

Should it rally, immediate resistance is at 1.4154 and 1.4215. After that it has to take on 1.4248/83 again. Beyond that is 1.4345, 1.4400 and 1.4447.

No charts this morning—I'm having some time crunch problems.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—failed at resistance

Cable failed yesterday at the 1.6400 resistance, a nice round number and just below the inverted head and shoulder (H&S) pattern with the price target of 1.6421 and the top of the channel at 1.6433. The remainder of my position was profit stopped out at 1.6297.

The low so far this morning is 1.6274, near the .382 retracement of the 1.6061/1.6400 move at 1.6269. There's a little room after that for the correction to continue. On the three-hour chart the RSI has broken its uptrend line but price has yet to follow. This uptrend line is at 1.6253. The .382 retracement of the 1.5985/1.6400 move is at 1.6241. Below this, the next support is at 1.6200/6196. Much below that would suggest to me that Cable is headed back to 1.6000. That would bring it back to the bottom of the channel on the three-hour chart I posted yesterday and potentially be a good entry point for a long position.

Should it rally, it has to overcome 1.6400. Potential price targets are then 1.6500, 1.6556, 1.6600 and 1.6638.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

GBPUSD—approaching resistance

On Saturday, I prepared the three-hour chart below to assist my analysis and potentially guide my trading for the week. My long had been taken out and I wanted to know if it was worth getting back in. One of the things the chart showed was an inverted head and shoulder (H&S) pattern with a potential price target of 1.6421. This, along with other analysis, gave me the reasons I needed to enter at 1.6276 yesterday. Cable moved up. This morning the high of 1.6400, allowing me to take partial profits.

Now, it's approaching resistance. The top of the channel is 1.6433. The profit target from the H&S was 1.6421. The current price is also parity. In addition, it's possible the pair is in a corrective move on longer-term charts (weekly and monthly) with targets up to 1.6465. If one isn't long, this isn't the time to jump in. Wait for a pullback. If the pair should scale this strong resistance, then potential price targets are 1.6500, 1.6556, 1.6600 and 1.6638.

Every individual trader should be doing some analysis on the weekend when the market is closed and there are no distractions. I prepared three or four different charts for Cable. Here's the one that indicates the H&S pattern:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—slowly moving on up

Euro touched 1.4248 this morning, struggling to keep its rally alive from its Friday close of 1.4182. I'm long from last Friday at 1.4155.

On the hourly chart, it could have just completed an ABC correction for wave four. It came within six pips of C being .618 of A at 1.4208, assuming A began at 1.4198 and ended at 1.4137 and B ended at 1.4240. If so, it's beginning wave five. A potential price target for wave five is 1.4374 so there's still a little room to run. The target could be greater (1.4759) but that's rather ambitious. If C of four is not complete, potential downside price targets for the correction are 1.4179 and 1.4141. Both of these price tie in with some other support. If it gets there, I'll probably add to my position.

Strong resistance is just above at 1.4275/83 and negative divergence exists on the hourly chart. I'd expect a reaction there but it's not clear this little run upwards is over. After 1.4283, resistance is at 1.4345, 1.4400 and 1.4447.

Support is at 1.4204, 1.4189/65, 1.4147, 1.4041 and 1.4000.

Here's the hourly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Monday, March 21, 2011

GBPJPY—weekly

Last week was the fourth week with lower highs. Obviously, last week's price action created a doji candle with a long lower shadow. The shadow's low of 122.71 dipped well under the weekly downtrend line that the pair broke above nine weeks ago but the close at 130.83 was above that line. The short-term view is that perhaps the long, secular downtrend has resumed. However, note that the pair didn't spend any time at the 122.71 low and bounced sharply. In additon, momentum, as represented by RSI, looks good.

Price action, this morning, is choppy. Immediate resistance is at 132.50. A close today below 130.83 would be bearish.

Here's the weekly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—monthly

The monthly chart still shows a strong uptrend for this pair. However, the key number for the pair to overtake is 1.0257.











© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—pushed above Friday's high

Euro just reached 1.4203, above Friday's high and above the 1.4165/75 resistance. Furthermore, Friday's close was the highest since January 2010—over 14 months ago. This fuels the Euro bulls. Let's see if they can keep it going today. 1.4287 is the next resistance and it's very strong. First support is at 1.4165, then 1.4147, 1.4044 and 1.4000.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—good rally

The pair closed the week Friday below parity at .9959. Note that last week's low of .9706 confirmed the double top with a potential price target of .9401. However, the rally has been strong—the pair touched 1.0070 this morning, well above the .618 from the move down from 1.0158. I went long last week at .9940 with a price target of 1.0053. Obviously, I took some profits at that point. Before reversing and going short, however, I need to see multiple bearish signals on the shorter-term charts.

On the hourly chart, the pair looks as though it's completing a third wave up so expect a reaction, possibly only to 1.0054 or .9987. Below that is support at .9959, then .9872 and .9781.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Week Ending Numbers

These are the high, low and close numbers for the past week: