I'm going into the holiday weekend with long positions in the EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP. See you next week.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, July 2, 2010
EURGBP—update
The pair shot up to .8296, stopping me out for -40 pips and executing a small buy order for .8281. It will be interesting to watch price action. There is negative divergence on the hourly chart. However, because we're going into a long holiday weekend here in the US, I'm not going to continue trading.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—narrow range
For just over 25 hours EURGBP has been in narrow 39 pip range. I'm thinking about closing out my position (a short from .8234) because we're going into a long holiday weekend here in the states.
This price action since the leg down from .8394 could be a harmonic pattern setting up or it could be an ABC correction. Simplest—and simple is good as Occam's Razor shows—is an ABC correction with the C wave now forming. This implies a rise to .8265 if C is .618 of A (or .8326 if equal to A). I've labeled it on the hourly chart below. The 20 daily SMA capped it the last time it got near this price and that's at .8260 today, just above the pair's current offer price. Price resistance is at the current level up to .8275. Momentum (as represented by RSI) has dropped on the hourly chart. Finally, there's negative divergence on the hourly chart. Five pieces of evidence for being short. That's as good as it gets but I'm still not sure I'm going into the long weekend with this position. Opposing evidence is that the pair is loitering at this price level and when a pair hands around just under resistance it often breaks above it. In addition, with a serious downtrend when RSI becomes overbought and then falls below that on the hourly chart, price usually begins declining again. It hasn't yet. If it is some sort of harmonic pattern such as a butterfly or crab price will go higher as the "D" leg needs to extend. Well, this is what makes trading interesting. We'll just have to wait and see. If it wasn't for the holiday weekend…but maybe NFP will get things moving again.
Resistance is at .8275, .8326, .8380 and .8400. Support is at .8218, .8180, .8107/00, .8068, .8000 and .7900.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This price action since the leg down from .8394 could be a harmonic pattern setting up or it could be an ABC correction. Simplest—and simple is good as Occam's Razor shows—is an ABC correction with the C wave now forming. This implies a rise to .8265 if C is .618 of A (or .8326 if equal to A). I've labeled it on the hourly chart below. The 20 daily SMA capped it the last time it got near this price and that's at .8260 today, just above the pair's current offer price. Price resistance is at the current level up to .8275. Momentum (as represented by RSI) has dropped on the hourly chart. Finally, there's negative divergence on the hourly chart. Five pieces of evidence for being short. That's as good as it gets but I'm still not sure I'm going into the long weekend with this position. Opposing evidence is that the pair is loitering at this price level and when a pair hands around just under resistance it often breaks above it. In addition, with a serious downtrend when RSI becomes overbought and then falls below that on the hourly chart, price usually begins declining again. It hasn't yet. If it is some sort of harmonic pattern such as a butterfly or crab price will go higher as the "D" leg needs to extend. Well, this is what makes trading interesting. We'll just have to wait and see. If it wasn't for the holiday weekend…but maybe NFP will get things moving again.
Resistance is at .8275, .8326, .8380 and .8400. Support is at .8218, .8180, .8107/00, .8068, .8000 and .7900.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
GBPUSD—update
Took partial profits on my long at +262 pips.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—update 2
Now that Euro has touched the first of the possible price targets I took profits at +275 pips. That leaves me with two long positions I added after it behaved well at its support line—one from 1.2400 and one from 1.2413.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—rally
Along with everything else, the EURGBP has been rallying. The rest of my short from .8340 profit-stopped at +135 pips in yesterday's rally. (It will be reported for June results).
The pair has rallied to a high of .8257 this morning where it is stumbling. The 20 daily SMA capped it the last time it got near here so that is one reason I shorted at .8234. I wrote yesterday that "It would be ideal if it could work its way up to the resistance at .8225/40." Well it got there so live by the sword, die by the sword. The other reason is that momentum (as represented by RSI) is stumbling on the hourly chart—it has closed below the overbought reading of 70. Finally, it's near resistance at around .8265/70.
So it should be a short. But honestly did anyone really expect the rallies we've had this morning? Yeah, well, now that they've happened people will say they did but that wasn't what most were posting late yesterday and even early this morning. The rallies may have more to do with decreasing liquidity in the market than anything else—we're heading for a summer Friday and in the US people are already leaving for the long July 4th weekend. In any case, I'm keeping my stop tight. Also, the longer it hangs around at this level the less likely I am to stay in the trade, partly because of the holiday and partly because I don't like pairs that loiter near resistance. Bang on a door long enough and eventually it gives way.
After this, resistance is at .8300, .8380 and .8400. If it gets beyond that I'll be surprised but that's nothing new. Support is at .8180, .8107/00, .8068, .8000 and .7900.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has rallied to a high of .8257 this morning where it is stumbling. The 20 daily SMA capped it the last time it got near here so that is one reason I shorted at .8234. I wrote yesterday that "It would be ideal if it could work its way up to the resistance at .8225/40." Well it got there so live by the sword, die by the sword. The other reason is that momentum (as represented by RSI) is stumbling on the hourly chart—it has closed below the overbought reading of 70. Finally, it's near resistance at around .8265/70.
So it should be a short. But honestly did anyone really expect the rallies we've had this morning? Yeah, well, now that they've happened people will say they did but that wasn't what most were posting late yesterday and even early this morning. The rallies may have more to do with decreasing liquidity in the market than anything else—we're heading for a summer Friday and in the US people are already leaving for the long July 4th weekend. In any case, I'm keeping my stop tight. Also, the longer it hangs around at this level the less likely I am to stay in the trade, partly because of the holiday and partly because I don't like pairs that loiter near resistance. Bang on a door long enough and eventually it gives way.
After this, resistance is at .8300, .8380 and .8400. If it gets beyond that I'll be surprised but that's nothing new. Support is at .8180, .8107/00, .8068, .8000 and .7900.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—rallying
I woke up in the middle of the night because of armadillos rooting about the yard (they cause the security lights to come on.) Since I couldn't easily get back to sleep I checked the market and went long this pair at 1.4918 because of it seeming to have found support at a Fib confluence level (1.4874) and because RSI seemed to be basing as well. I've just taken partial profits at +140 pips.
This pair has been skanky lately (my long I attempted yesterday stopped at -20 pips which will go to June results).
As to resistance…well first it has to get above 1.5129. It has cleared a recent, very short-term downtrend line at 1.5061. 1.5338 is a downtrend line on the weekly chart. Sellers are most likely coming in now, encouraged by the weakness over the last couple of days. As I've previously mentioned, the 20 EMA capped it the weeks of 4/16, 4/30 and last week. Today that EMA is at 1.5055 and is obviously proving to be formidable resistance. Should the pair falter, support is at 1.4874, 1.4710, 1.4696, 1.4590 and 1.4550.
Let's see how it behaves in the next couple of hours especially as it returns to the downtrend line it recently cleared. Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This pair has been skanky lately (my long I attempted yesterday stopped at -20 pips which will go to June results).
As to resistance…well first it has to get above 1.5129. It has cleared a recent, very short-term downtrend line at 1.5061. 1.5338 is a downtrend line on the weekly chart. Sellers are most likely coming in now, encouraged by the weakness over the last couple of days. As I've previously mentioned, the 20 EMA capped it the weeks of 4/16, 4/30 and last week. Today that EMA is at 1.5055 and is obviously proving to be formidable resistance. Should the pair falter, support is at 1.4874, 1.4710, 1.4696, 1.4590 and 1.4550.
Let's see how it behaves in the next couple of hours especially as it returns to the downtrend line it recently cleared. Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—update
Now that Euro has broken upwards of the channel, let's see if it comes back to the channel line for a retest. If that goes well then I'll add to my position. If it doesn't, well, I guess fake out will be the technical term we'll use.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—C wave
I bought at 1.2246 after it retested the 1.2152 low at 1.2167. I just took a little off the table for +76 pips.
As I've been saying this week, I'm assuming this is wave C of an Elliott Wave zigzag correction. Wave A's length was 591 pips (1.2467-1.1876). C has a potential target of either .618 the length of A (1.2517), the length of wave A (1.2743), or 1.618 the length (1.3108). It could also go to just above wave A, say 1.2480 or so. That's Elliott Wave precision for you. But none of those mean a thing unless the pair can break through its current resistance. It stumbled at 1.2304 yesterday morning; today it's stumbling at 1.2344. In addition to other resistance it's at the top of a short-term channel that could lead to a correction down to 1.2126. Other nearby support is at 1.2223 and 1.2194.
This channel could also be looked at as a bull flag. If one took the length of the flagpole (591 pips) and added it to 1.2467 you see 1.3058. Price action combined with momentum should make things clearer soon. I'll probably add to my position if there's a clear upward break from this channel.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
As I've been saying this week, I'm assuming this is wave C of an Elliott Wave zigzag correction. Wave A's length was 591 pips (1.2467-1.1876). C has a potential target of either .618 the length of A (1.2517), the length of wave A (1.2743), or 1.618 the length (1.3108). It could also go to just above wave A, say 1.2480 or so. That's Elliott Wave precision for you. But none of those mean a thing unless the pair can break through its current resistance. It stumbled at 1.2304 yesterday morning; today it's stumbling at 1.2344. In addition to other resistance it's at the top of a short-term channel that could lead to a correction down to 1.2126. Other nearby support is at 1.2223 and 1.2194.
This channel could also be looked at as a bull flag. If one took the length of the flagpole (591 pips) and added it to 1.2467 you see 1.3058. Price action combined with momentum should make things clearer soon. I'll probably add to my position if there's a clear upward break from this channel.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
GBPUSD--update
The pair has dropped as low as 1.4964 which is a polarity level. There's some positive divergence on the shorter-term charts (5- and 15-minute) but any long must have a very tight stop (15 or so pips) and a break of this suggests a stop and reverse signal. Watch momentum carefully.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—rally
The pair did drop to 1.2152 yesterday where I should have bought but it got away from me. That was close enough to my 1.2130 that I blogged about yesterday that I believe it means the B wave ended.
This morning it has hit its head on 1.2304 and fallen off a bit but let's see what happens next.
If this is an Elliott Wave zigzag (three-wave) correction, then there are four additional rules that have to be in place according to Prechter and Frost. First, wave A must subdivide into an impulse or leading diagonal which it has. Second, wave B subdivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle or combination. It looks as though B is a zigzag. Third, wave B must never move beyond the start of wave A. It didn't. Finally, C is always an impulse or diagonal which we don't know yet. When you think about it, those are pretty broad rules but that's what we have.
There are guidelines such as wave B retracing 50 to 79% of wave A if B is a zigzag. In this case, it retraced 53%. Other guidelines are that wave C can be about the same length as A or move beyond it (haha—very definitive). It's too early to predict where it's going until the pair breaks through some nearby resistance at 1.2304 and 1.2398.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This morning it has hit its head on 1.2304 and fallen off a bit but let's see what happens next.
If this is an Elliott Wave zigzag (three-wave) correction, then there are four additional rules that have to be in place according to Prechter and Frost. First, wave A must subdivide into an impulse or leading diagonal which it has. Second, wave B subdivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle or combination. It looks as though B is a zigzag. Third, wave B must never move beyond the start of wave A. It didn't. Finally, C is always an impulse or diagonal which we don't know yet. When you think about it, those are pretty broad rules but that's what we have.
There are guidelines such as wave B retracing 50 to 79% of wave A if B is a zigzag. In this case, it retraced 53%. Other guidelines are that wave C can be about the same length as A or move beyond it (haha—very definitive). It's too early to predict where it's going until the pair breaks through some nearby resistance at 1.2304 and 1.2398.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—rally
I have one small position left from .8340. I closed .8258 for +170 pips. The last two (from .8168 and .8114) profit-stopped out at +65 and +10 pips respectively.
The pair finally began a rally overnight getting up to a high of .8180 this morning after yesterday's low of .8068. Sellers are coming in, obviously, because .8180 was the June 24 low so it's stalling here. I'm holding off a bit because momentum, as represented by RSI, is still strong on the hourly chart. It needs to close below .70. At that point, whether price will still be at a decent level remains to be seen. It would be ideal if it could work its way up to the resistance at .8225/40. It would make much sense to short there. But we'll see.
Looking at a daily chart, yesterday's low could be the end of wave three. There's also slightly positive divergence on the daily chart.
Resistance is at .8180, .8225/40, .8285,.8300, and .8400. The latter should cap any rallies. Should the pair head down, .8107/00,.8068, .8000 and .7900 are all support.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair finally began a rally overnight getting up to a high of .8180 this morning after yesterday's low of .8068. Sellers are coming in, obviously, because .8180 was the June 24 low so it's stalling here. I'm holding off a bit because momentum, as represented by RSI, is still strong on the hourly chart. It needs to close below .70. At that point, whether price will still be at a decent level remains to be seen. It would be ideal if it could work its way up to the resistance at .8225/40. It would make much sense to short there. But we'll see.
Looking at a daily chart, yesterday's low could be the end of wave three. There's also slightly positive divergence on the daily chart.
Resistance is at .8180, .8225/40, .8285,.8300, and .8400. The latter should cap any rallies. Should the pair head down, .8107/00,.8068, .8000 and .7900 are all support.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—waiting
The remainder of my long stopped out at breakeven and I haven't re-entered.
Opinion on this pair is all over the place with one analyst who is consistently biased towards being long in the GBPUSD confidently asserting a long position to another saying the break below 1.50 this morning targets 1.4765. Clearly, there are some conflicting signals. This is why I don't usually read other's opinions until I've studied the charts myself and made up my own mind.
I'm planning on watching it carefully as it approaches 1.5065/80 as it's the downtrend line of the most recent channel on the one-hour chart. Much will depend on momentum as the pair could also reach the top of the larger channel at 1.5179. Sellers will probably pile in at that point, especially if it begins to falter. A look at the weekly chart shows that the 20 EMA capped it the weeks of 4/16, 4/30 and last week. Today that EMA is at 1.5052 so it has poked its head above it but can it hold it there? My bias is to sell.
On the other hand, there's a seasonal tendency for the pound to gain during the period from June 28th to July 21st. The trend has been up recently on the daily chart with only yesterday showing a lower high and lower low from the day before. Momentum is holding up reasonably well on the hourly chart. The drop to the low of 1.4981 this morning lines up with what I suggested yesterday—that there could be a return to the 1.4950/80 area of tough resistance that the pair managed to get through. All these suggest a long position. But this isn't necessarily the place to jump in if you missed, as I did, the probe low this morning. First, it might dip lower again to test that 1.4980. Or, if cable gathers steam at 1.5179 then there's potential up to 1.5280, 1.5305/40 and then 1.5540/80.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Opinion on this pair is all over the place with one analyst who is consistently biased towards being long in the GBPUSD confidently asserting a long position to another saying the break below 1.50 this morning targets 1.4765. Clearly, there are some conflicting signals. This is why I don't usually read other's opinions until I've studied the charts myself and made up my own mind.
I'm planning on watching it carefully as it approaches 1.5065/80 as it's the downtrend line of the most recent channel on the one-hour chart. Much will depend on momentum as the pair could also reach the top of the larger channel at 1.5179. Sellers will probably pile in at that point, especially if it begins to falter. A look at the weekly chart shows that the 20 EMA capped it the weeks of 4/16, 4/30 and last week. Today that EMA is at 1.5052 so it has poked its head above it but can it hold it there? My bias is to sell.
On the other hand, there's a seasonal tendency for the pound to gain during the period from June 28th to July 21st. The trend has been up recently on the daily chart with only yesterday showing a lower high and lower low from the day before. Momentum is holding up reasonably well on the hourly chart. The drop to the low of 1.4981 this morning lines up with what I suggested yesterday—that there could be a return to the 1.4950/80 area of tough resistance that the pair managed to get through. All these suggest a long position. But this isn't necessarily the place to jump in if you missed, as I did, the probe low this morning. First, it might dip lower again to test that 1.4980. Or, if cable gathers steam at 1.5179 then there's potential up to 1.5280, 1.5305/40 and then 1.5540/80.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
EURGBP—down, down, down
This pair has continued merrily down as money flows to the UK. I have four short positions at .8340, .8258, .8168, and .8114. I may close the one at .8258 and book the profits.
.8107 is potential support (Nov. 2008 low) with a clear possibility of .7900. However, if you're not already in this trade, wait for a bounce. It has to come eventually. Resistance is at .8130, .8225 and .8275/85.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
.8107 is potential support (Nov. 2008 low) with a clear possibility of .7900. However, if you're not already in this trade, wait for a bounce. It has to come eventually. Resistance is at .8130, .8225 and .8275/85.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—B wave
I was expecting this pair to drop a bit more, possibly down to the 1.2130 level before it rallies but it may not happen. Euro put in a low of 1.2177 this morning with a couple of candles with longish lower shadows on the hourly chart. Their length suggests that the pair was rejecting lower prices. It then bounced, up to 1.2218 but is floundering a bit, in part because it's hitting its head on a Fib confluence zone. Sentiment is still bearish. The price on the 3-hour chart looks as though it's in the process of completing a B wave in what may be an ABC correction. It's unclear, though, that B is over.
My intent was to try a small long at 1.2120/30 but we'll have to see if it happens. One negative note—on the weekly chart, Euro closed last week with a doji star. After an ascent, one wants to watch this week's candle since, if it cuts deeply into the ascending candle from the week before, it will complete an evening star pattern.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
My intent was to try a small long at 1.2120/30 but we'll have to see if it happens. One negative note—on the weekly chart, Euro closed last week with a doji star. After an ascent, one wants to watch this week's candle since, if it cuts deeply into the ascending candle from the week before, it will complete an evening star pattern.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—choppy
My long from 1.5078 was stopped at breakeven. I went long again this morning at 1.5039 after the pair tested 1.5012 with two probes of that price on the 15-minute chart. Since it fell back to 1.5018 yesterday before rising, one could look to see if that repeats today. I've already moved my stop to breakeven. This doesn't give the trade a lot of breathing room but there's risk it will correct back to the 1.4950/80 area. While yesterday's high and low were higher than Friday's, today's dip nudged a bit below yesterday's low. The bottom line here is that while I'm long the pair, I'm not particularly bullish, probably because the move looks corrective on the daily chart. Nonetheless, higher highs and higher lows suggest being long rather than short. I also like the way RSI is behaving on the shorter term charts.
Should the pair break through 1.5129/50 (which would end this chop), the next resistance is 1.5225. If you look at the daily chart below you see an ABC correction with the pair currently in the C wave. If C is 1.618 the length of A, then that targets 1.5222. In an Elliott Wave zigzag correction, the B wave is typically 50 to 78% of A. B retraced 78%. After that, there's a resistance zone at 1.5322/75 made up of daily and weekly downtrend lines along with Fib confluence zones. Above that is the psychological 1.5500.
Support is 1.5012 which really needs to hold if there is going to be confidence that the pair will continue its rally. There's strong support at 1.4980/50 and 1.4857.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Should the pair break through 1.5129/50 (which would end this chop), the next resistance is 1.5225. If you look at the daily chart below you see an ABC correction with the pair currently in the C wave. If C is 1.618 the length of A, then that targets 1.5222. In an Elliott Wave zigzag correction, the B wave is typically 50 to 78% of A. B retraced 78%. After that, there's a resistance zone at 1.5322/75 made up of daily and weekly downtrend lines along with Fib confluence zones. Above that is the psychological 1.5500.
Support is 1.5012 which really needs to hold if there is going to be confidence that the pair will continue its rally. There's strong support at 1.4980/50 and 1.4857.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, June 28, 2010
GBPUSD-update 2
I went long again at 1.5078.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—bounce
The pair has bounced and is up 40 pips so I've moved my stop to breakeven.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—update
I did go long at 1.5078 but the pair has definitely stalled below 1.1519. The hourly chart shows negative divergence and it looks as though it will retest its breakout point (and stop me at breakeven) or scurry on down to lower prices. I'll watch momentum at this point.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—weak
I'm short two positions in this pair from .8340 and .8258. I just took partial profits on the .8340 one at +170 pips.
The pair just broke below its recent low of .8181 so a bounce might be in order. On the three-hour chart there is slight positive divergence. On the weekly chart it's at the bottom of a channel. If it does bounce, initial resistance is at .8275/85 where one could try a short. If it breaks the weekly channel then .7900 is possible.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair just broke below its recent low of .8181 so a bounce might be in order. On the three-hour chart there is slight positive divergence. On the weekly chart it's at the bottom of a channel. If it does bounce, initial resistance is at .8275/85 where one could try a short. If it breaks the weekly channel then .7900 is possible.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—rallying
So much for shorting this pair at the moment. The remainder of my position stopped out at breakeven.
The pair has continued to rally, reaching a high of 1.5078 this morning before falling back 60 pips and is now approaching the high again. I suspect it will break through once it overcomes the current resistance. To get here it broke through formidable resistance at 1.4950 to 1.4980 and Friday was an outside up day so things look good. Risk sentiment is better today as well.
The next resistance level where a short might prove worthwhile is 1.5225. If you look at the daily chart below you see an ABC correction with the pair currently in the C wave. If C is 1.618 the length of A, then that targets 1.5222. In an Elliott Wave zigzag correction, the B wave is typically 50 to 78% of A. B retraced 78%. 1.5355/74 would be the next logical resistance zone. 1.5374 is a downtrend line on the weekly chart. 1.5355 is a downtrend line on the daily chart since November. After that price zone, there is the psychological 1.5500.
So is there a way to trade this on the long side? One could buy on a clear break of 1.5078 or buy a pullback to 1.5018 and I may, in fact, do that as long as momentum on the short-term hourly chart looks good.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has continued to rally, reaching a high of 1.5078 this morning before falling back 60 pips and is now approaching the high again. I suspect it will break through once it overcomes the current resistance. To get here it broke through formidable resistance at 1.4950 to 1.4980 and Friday was an outside up day so things look good. Risk sentiment is better today as well.
The next resistance level where a short might prove worthwhile is 1.5225. If you look at the daily chart below you see an ABC correction with the pair currently in the C wave. If C is 1.618 the length of A, then that targets 1.5222. In an Elliott Wave zigzag correction, the B wave is typically 50 to 78% of A. B retraced 78%. 1.5355/74 would be the next logical resistance zone. 1.5374 is a downtrend line on the weekly chart. 1.5355 is a downtrend line on the daily chart since November. After that price zone, there is the psychological 1.5500.
So is there a way to trade this on the long side? One could buy on a clear break of 1.5078 or buy a pullback to 1.5018 and I may, in fact, do that as long as momentum on the short-term hourly chart looks good.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—at support
Friday I was long USDCHF which stopped at breakeven. The pair has reached a low so far this morning of 1.0828. I just went long at 1.0847. The reasons I went long are that the pair is at key support. There is a weekly uptrend line coming in at 1.0870, a daily uptrend line coming in at 1.0806 and the 1.0805/12 zone is polarity. My 3-hour point and figure chart (P&F) also shows good support in the 1.0850 area. There is also positive divergence on the three-hour chart.
Obviously the pair needs watching and just as obviously a tight stop is imperative. The next major support is at 1.0747. Also troublesome is that on the P&F chart, the pair has broken below the 45° trend line. If it gives a sell signal in the next couple of hours I'll consider going short.
Here's a look at the three-hour P&F chart. I keep these for most of my pairs on a daily, 3-hour, and sometimes hourly basis. They can be very useful in removing noise from price action and can help in calculating price targets.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Obviously the pair needs watching and just as obviously a tight stop is imperative. The next major support is at 1.0747. Also troublesome is that on the P&F chart, the pair has broken below the 45° trend line. If it gives a sell signal in the next couple of hours I'll consider going short.
Here's a look at the three-hour P&F chart. I keep these for most of my pairs on a daily, 3-hour, and sometimes hourly basis. They can be very useful in removing noise from price action and can help in calculating price targets.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—weekly
On the weekly chart the pair closed last week with a doji star. At best this indicates uncertainty. If this week closes well into the candle before this star then expect prices to drop. The top of the doji is at .8861 so prices need to get above that level before the pair looks bullish again. If they should do so then the double bottom target of .9040 could be achieved.
Other key price levels to watch right now are the fib levels of .8890 and .8565.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Other key price levels to watch right now are the fib levels of .8890 and .8565.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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