One would sort of expect the pair would bounce a bit soon. The pair has touched a low of 1.4997 and 1.4978 is the bottom of this support zone. I've taken some partial profits at +129 pips. Next support levels after 1.4978 is 1.4949, 1.4873/55 and 1.4785. Resistance is 1.5128 and 1.5161 and then 1.5276.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, March 19, 2010
AUDUSD—update
Took partial profits at +100 pips. Strategy should be to short on rallies because it has dropped sharply.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—update
I shorted at 1.5153 when the pair couldn't quite get to the bottom line of the channel it tumbled out of earlier. However, 1.5000 down to 1.4978 is tough support, both from long stops and prior support.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—dropped below channel
The remainder of my long position from 1.5138 profit stopped out at 1.5226 for +88 pips.
The pair has dropped below its channel, touching 1.5128 as a low. Currently, it looks as though it's trying to stage a rally and a short play may present itself if it can get back to the channel line at 1.5173. Should it manage to clear that and get back to the top of the channel it would be a really nice short.
Support is at 1.5128, 1.5087, 1.4978, and 1.4873. Resistance is at 1.5173, 1.5260, 1.5276, and 1.5382.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has dropped below its channel, touching 1.5128 as a low. Currently, it looks as though it's trying to stage a rally and a short play may present itself if it can get back to the channel line at 1.5173. Should it manage to clear that and get back to the top of the channel it would be a really nice short.
Support is at 1.5128, 1.5087, 1.4978, and 1.4873. Resistance is at 1.5173, 1.5260, 1.5276, and 1.5382.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—finally dropping
It looks as though Euro is finally beginning to drop, hitting a low of 1.3553 so far this morning. If it can't pull out of this then the correction was over at 1.3818 and the pair is beginning the next leg down.
As I wrote yesterday, support is in this 1.3538/51 area, so the pair should stall here a bit. My short from 1.3686 is profit stopped.
Support is at 135.38, 135.00, 134.35. and 134.05. Resistance is at 136.33, 136.95, 137.80 and 138.18.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
As I wrote yesterday, support is in this 1.3538/51 area, so the pair should stall here a bit. My short from 1.3686 is profit stopped.
Support is at 135.38, 135.00, 134.35. and 134.05. Resistance is at 136.33, 136.95, 137.80 and 138.18.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—trying to find support
GBPJPY is trying to find support at 136.84, its low for the last three hours. Should this not hold, there will be stronger support just below from 136.20 to 136.50. My short from 137.96 is profit stopped and I just took some partial profits at +90 pips.
RSI is beginning to be oversold on the hourly chart which has created some negative divergence. Should it continue to drop support is at 136.50, 136.20, 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, and 134. Resistance is at 137.50, 137.75, 137.95, 138.42, and 139.37.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
RSI is beginning to be oversold on the hourly chart which has created some negative divergence. Should it continue to drop support is at 136.50, 136.20, 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, and 134. Resistance is at 137.50, 137.75, 137.95, 138.42, and 139.37.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—milling about
AUDUSD is milling about in confusion. On the hourly chart, it has broken below a very short-term trend line but you can see it doesn't want to let go and drop further. That is, the Aussie bulls are hanging in against the bears and the result is stalemate. One side will take over at some point and at that point, one should see some definitive moves. My short position at .9240 is still on with its stop better than breakeven. The low since I took that position was .9180. I'm not overly confident that this pair is really ready to drop so I took some partial profits at +37 pips. If it breaks .9180, I may add another short, however. There is some negative divergence since the low of .9180 so this may happen.
Support is at .9180, .9150, .9124, .9096, and .9050. Resistance is at .9230, .9252, .9330, and .9406.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .9180, .9150, .9124, .9096, and .9050. Resistance is at .9230, .9252, .9330, and .9406.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
AUDUSD—dropped off slightly
I took a short position in AUDUSD yesterday at .9240. I've moved the stop to just better than breakeven. It's difficult to expect this to pay off with the strong trend this pair has been in but if it takes out my stop then it will be a signal to look at a long. In any case, a look at the daily chart shows a slight downward, range from the high of .9406 in November to the low of .8578 in Feb. The reason I took my short was that it was at the high. On the daily chart, RSI has broken below its trend line but price must do the same before this is very meaningful.
Support is at .9192, .9124, .9096, .9043, and .9252. Resistance is at .9252, .9330, and .9406. Note the narrow areas of support and the wider gaps between resistance levels. It would be easier for this pair to go up than down.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .9192, .9124, .9096, .9043, and .9252. Resistance is at .9252, .9330, and .9406. Note the narrow areas of support and the wider gaps between resistance levels. It would be easier for this pair to go up than down.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Yearly highs and lows
Here are the year-to-date highs and lows for the pairs I regularly follow. In parenthesis is the month of the high or low. I have grouped them by those that made their high in January, then those that made it in February, and then those that have done so in March.
EURCHF: High: 1.4894 (Jan); Low 1.4454 (Mar)
EURJPY: High: 134.39 (Jan); Low 119.65 (Feb)
EURUSD: High: 1.4581 (Jan); Low 1.3434 (Mar)
GBPCHF: High: 1.7115 (Jan); Low 1.5905(Mar)
GBPJPY: High: 150.74 (Jan); Low 132.02(Mar)
GBPUSD: High: 1.6460 (Jan); Low 1.4783(Mar)
USDJPY: High: .9379 (Jan); Low .8813 (Mar)
USDCAD: High: 1.0782 (Feb); Low 1.0071 (Mar)
USDCHF: High: 1.0900 (Feb); Low 1.0132 (Jan)
USDTRY: High: 1.5654 (Feb); Low 1.4447 (Jan)
USDZAR: High: 7.8965 (Feb); Low 7.2440 (Mar)
AUDUSD: High: .9254 (March); Low .8578 (Feb)
EURCHF: High: 1.4894 (Jan); Low 1.4454 (Mar)
EURJPY: High: 134.39 (Jan); Low 119.65 (Feb)
EURUSD: High: 1.4581 (Jan); Low 1.3434 (Mar)
GBPCHF: High: 1.7115 (Jan); Low 1.5905(Mar)
GBPJPY: High: 150.74 (Jan); Low 132.02(Mar)
GBPUSD: High: 1.6460 (Jan); Low 1.4783(Mar)
USDJPY: High: .9379 (Jan); Low .8813 (Mar)
USDCAD: High: 1.0782 (Feb); Low 1.0071 (Mar)
USDCHF: High: 1.0900 (Feb); Low 1.0132 (Jan)
USDTRY: High: 1.5654 (Feb); Low 1.4447 (Jan)
USDZAR: High: 7.8965 (Feb); Low 7.2440 (Mar)
AUDUSD: High: .9254 (March); Low .8578 (Feb)
Dreadful market today
There's little movement and some conflicting signals in today's market. Perhaps it's time to take a day off.
GBPJPY—at top of channel
My long position profit stopped out at 137.87 for +104 pips. The pair is now at the top of a small channel. I just took a short position at 137.96. However, I'm more than ready to stop and reverse in the somewhat tricky trading market of the last couple of days.
This small channel is within a much larger channel whose range is 136.00 to 139.73. It's possible to interpret the smaller channel as a bull flag—if so, the target would be 142.20. Since that coincides with a resistance level identified prior to this at 142.10, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. However, before that becomes something to seriously consider it must clear yesterday's high of 139.07.
Resistance is at 138.09/18, 138.58, 139.07, 139.75, 141.40, 142.10, and 143.65. Support is at 137.03, 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, 134.93, and 134.00.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This small channel is within a much larger channel whose range is 136.00 to 139.73. It's possible to interpret the smaller channel as a bull flag—if so, the target would be 142.20. Since that coincides with a resistance level identified prior to this at 142.10, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. However, before that becomes something to seriously consider it must clear yesterday's high of 139.07.
Resistance is at 138.09/18, 138.58, 139.07, 139.75, 141.40, 142.10, and 143.65. Support is at 137.03, 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, 134.93, and 134.00.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—faltering
The pound is faltering after hitting 1.5382 yesterday. From the fundamental side, people are muttering that yesterday's unemployment numbers aren't as good as they look and maybe it just sunk in that BOE has no idea what's going on—I say that based on the quote in the statement yesterday ("Some members considered the upside risks to inflation had increased slightly over the month; others felt that the balance of risks had not changed materially.")
The pair has pulled back to a low of 1.5258 so far this morning. This was a prior support area and served to support the pound again. My long position from 1.5138 is still in play. However, if the pair corrected further I'd be out and there are stop orders below 1.52 no doubt so a break below there wouldn't be good.
Support is at 1.5258, 1.5240, 1.5210, 1.5174, 1.4978, 1.4961 and 1.4873. Resistance is at 1.5332, 1.5382, 1.5520, 1.5415, and 1.5816.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has pulled back to a low of 1.5258 so far this morning. This was a prior support area and served to support the pound again. My long position from 1.5138 is still in play. However, if the pair corrected further I'd be out and there are stop orders below 1.52 no doubt so a break below there wouldn't be good.
Support is at 1.5258, 1.5240, 1.5210, 1.5174, 1.4978, 1.4961 and 1.4873. Resistance is at 1.5332, 1.5382, 1.5520, 1.5415, and 1.5816.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—attempting to rally yet again
Both my longs from yesterday stopped out at breakeven. Hmph. The Euro has dropped to a low of 1.3648 so far today and is attempting a rally. It's possible it won't get much beyond 1.3700/25 before turning down again. As a result, selling in that area might be the way to go with a tight stop.
I'm disappointed in Euro. So far it has failed to make my first price target of 1.3853 by 35 pips and didn't get close to the second one at 1.4039. However, as I wrote last Friday, there's a strong confluence zone in the 1.3651/97 area. This is the third test of this area since March 11. So there's still a possibility. If it does continue up, then expect it to try to get through yesterday's 1.3818 high again. The key here is to watch momentum and candle behavior carefully as it approaches 1.3700/25 for shorting and then, if that doesn't pan out, look to buy a pullback. It may be best to sit this one out because there are some conflicting signals. Looking at the 3-hour and daily charts, one could make an argument for basing.
Resistance is at 1.3700, 1.3729, 1.3780, 1.3818, 1.3839, and 1.4026. Support is at 1.3648, 1.3600, and 1.3538/51.
Here's the one-hour chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm disappointed in Euro. So far it has failed to make my first price target of 1.3853 by 35 pips and didn't get close to the second one at 1.4039. However, as I wrote last Friday, there's a strong confluence zone in the 1.3651/97 area. This is the third test of this area since March 11. So there's still a possibility. If it does continue up, then expect it to try to get through yesterday's 1.3818 high again. The key here is to watch momentum and candle behavior carefully as it approaches 1.3700/25 for shorting and then, if that doesn't pan out, look to buy a pullback. It may be best to sit this one out because there are some conflicting signals. Looking at the 3-hour and daily charts, one could make an argument for basing.
Resistance is at 1.3700, 1.3729, 1.3780, 1.3818, 1.3839, and 1.4026. Support is at 1.3648, 1.3600, and 1.3538/51.
Here's the one-hour chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
GBPUSD—retreated a bit
The pound has pulled back to a low of 1.5301. This is the point where it broke out this morning from its expanding triangle or broadening pattern. There's a bit more room for a pullback to 1.5282, the bottom of its small channel or 1.5269, its overnight high. I may add to my long position, depending on behavior in the next few minutes.
Support is at 1.5282/69, 1.5210, 1.5174, and 1.4978. Resistance is at 1.5332, 1.5382, 1.5520, 1.5415, and 1.5816.
Here's the 30-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.5282/69, 1.5210, 1.5174, and 1.4978. Resistance is at 1.5332, 1.5382, 1.5520, 1.5415, and 1.5816.
Here's the 30-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—dipped to bottom of channel
EURUSD dipped to a low of 1.3738, the bottom of its channel, in a move that was the same size as the first move down. I barely missed getting stopped out on my long I blogged about earlier this morning and I added another long at 1.3744. This pair needs to get moving if it's going to do so and clear out of this channel with a definitive close above 1.3818.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Protest proposed CFTC rule to limit leverage
There is still time to protest the proposed rule that retail Forex traders should be limited to only 10:1 leverage in their accounts.
This rule would have the effect of driving small traders to offshore, completely unregulated accounts. Their proposal can be found here:
http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2010/pr5772-10.html
If you disagree with this,you may submit your comments to
secretary@cftc.gov.
Include “Regulation of Retail Forex” in the subject line of the message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.
Also, with the identification number RIN 3038-AC61, you can submit your comments by any of the
following methods:
• Fax: (202) 418-5521.
• Mail: Send to David Stawick, Secretary, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1155
21st Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20581.
• Courier: Same as Mail above.
All comments received will be posted without change to http://www.cftc.gov, including any personal information provided.
Below is the email I sent back in January:
I am writing to object to the proposed regulation of retail Forex traders (RIN 3038-AC61). Specifically, I object to the provision that states, "Leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation."
While I understand you see increasing leverage requirements as increasing consumer protection, the result will be the opposite of what you intend because this provision would drive small retail traders to offshore brokers who are not subject to any regulation. As a result, they may be in danger of losing all their money, regardless of any specific trading decisions they make, because of unethical brokers.
In addition, the retail Forex market is comprised of many different levels of individuals. Your proposed rule does not allow for this. For example, I have passed the three exam series from the Market Technician Association and have been awarded my Chartered Market Technician (CMT) letters. I also have five years of trading experience as an independent trader. I should not be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation and have no idea why you think this would be protective of me. It will prevent me from moving profits out of my trading account on a regular basis because I would need additional capital to maintain margin requirements. The result would be that I would have more money, not less, at risk at any given time.
Finally, it is tempting to say that the small retail trader is most at risk in trading because they're uninformed. This, however, is a questionable statement based on various studies. Research has found that mutual fund managers, newsletter writers, Wall Street strategists, and investment advisors make the same behavioral errors in the financial marketplace as the "uninformed public" does. One only has to look at the behavior that led to the financial crisis of 2008 to know this is true as regards risk. While the response might be that these people can afford it, I remind you that it was the public's money used to bail out the financial institutions.
Rather than a blanket requirement of 10-to-1 leverage, it would be more appropriate to require some sort of training for those who intend to trade, even if this was only confined to risk management issues as opposed to a more general how to trade approach. Traders who could not show sufficient training or experience could be required to pass an online exam that would show they understand risk and money management. The individuals could be assessed a fee for this so that the cost would be borne by those who wished to trade. Brokers could not open an account unless the individual could show proof of passing this exam. This would do more to limit risk than to have a blanket provision such as 10-to-1 margin requirements. This is no different from requiring a driver's license for someone who wishes to drive.
Dianne Fecteau
I wrote about this in January but since there is still time to protest the proposed rule that retail Forex traders should be limited to only 10:1 leverage in their accounts, I wanted to repeat it.
This rule would have the effect of driving small traders to offshore, completely unregulated accounts. Their proposal can be found here:
http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2010/pr5772-10.html
If you disagree with this,you may submit your comments to
secretary@cftc.gov.
Include “Regulation of Retail Forex” in the subject line of the message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.
Also, with the identification number RIN 3038-AC61, you can submit your comments by any of the
following methods:
• Fax: (202) 418-5521.
• Mail: Send to David Stawick, Secretary, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1155
21st Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20581.
• Courier: Same as Mail above.
All comments received will be posted without change to http://www.cftc.gov, including any personal information provided.
Below is the email I sent:
I am writing to object to the proposed regulation of retail Forex traders (RIN 3038-AC61). Specifically, I object to the provision that states, "Leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation."
While I understand you see increasing leverage requirements as increasing consumer protection, the result will be the opposite of what you intend because this provision would drive small retail traders to offshore brokers who are not subject to any regulation. As a result, they may be in danger of losing all their money, regardless of any specific trading decisions they make, because of unethical brokers.
In addition, the retail Forex market is comprised of many different levels of individuals. Your proposed rule does not allow for this. For example, I have passed the three exam series from the Market Technician Association and have been awarded my Chartered Market Technician (CMT) letters. I also have five years of trading experience as an independent trader. I should not be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation and have no idea why you think this would be protective of me. It will prevent me from moving profits out of my trading account on a regular basis because I would need additional capital to maintain margin requirements. The result would be that I would have more money, not less, at risk at any given time.
Finally, it is tempting to say that the small retail trader is most at risk in trading because they're uninformed. This, however, is a questionable statement based on various studies. Research has found that mutual fund managers, newsletter writers, Wall Street strategists, and investment advisors make the same behavioral errors in the financial marketplace as the "uninformed public" does. One only has to look at the behavior that led to the financial crisis of 2008 to know this is true as regards risk. While the response might be that these people can afford it, I remind you that it was the public's money used to bail out the financial institutions.
Rather than a blanket requirement of 10-to-1 leverage, it would be more appropriate to require some sort of training for those who intend to trade, even if this was only confined to risk management issues as opposed to a more general how to trade approach. Traders who could not show sufficient training or experience could be required to pass an online exam that would show they understand risk and money management. The individuals could be assessed a fee for this so that the cost would be borne by those who wished to trade. Brokers could not open an account unless the individual could show proof of passing this exam. This would do more to limit risk than to have a blanket provision such as 10-to-1 margin requirements. This is no different from requiring a driver's license for someone who wishes to drive.
Dianne Fecteau
This rule would have the effect of driving small traders to offshore, completely unregulated accounts. Their proposal can be found here:
http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2010/pr5772-10.html
If you disagree with this,you may submit your comments to
secretary@cftc.gov.
Include “Regulation of Retail Forex” in the subject line of the message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.
Also, with the identification number RIN 3038-AC61, you can submit your comments by any of the
following methods:
• Fax: (202) 418-5521.
• Mail: Send to David Stawick, Secretary, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1155
21st Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20581.
• Courier: Same as Mail above.
All comments received will be posted without change to http://www.cftc.gov, including any personal information provided.
Below is the email I sent back in January:
I am writing to object to the proposed regulation of retail Forex traders (RIN 3038-AC61). Specifically, I object to the provision that states, "Leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation."
While I understand you see increasing leverage requirements as increasing consumer protection, the result will be the opposite of what you intend because this provision would drive small retail traders to offshore brokers who are not subject to any regulation. As a result, they may be in danger of losing all their money, regardless of any specific trading decisions they make, because of unethical brokers.
In addition, the retail Forex market is comprised of many different levels of individuals. Your proposed rule does not allow for this. For example, I have passed the three exam series from the Market Technician Association and have been awarded my Chartered Market Technician (CMT) letters. I also have five years of trading experience as an independent trader. I should not be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation and have no idea why you think this would be protective of me. It will prevent me from moving profits out of my trading account on a regular basis because I would need additional capital to maintain margin requirements. The result would be that I would have more money, not less, at risk at any given time.
Finally, it is tempting to say that the small retail trader is most at risk in trading because they're uninformed. This, however, is a questionable statement based on various studies. Research has found that mutual fund managers, newsletter writers, Wall Street strategists, and investment advisors make the same behavioral errors in the financial marketplace as the "uninformed public" does. One only has to look at the behavior that led to the financial crisis of 2008 to know this is true as regards risk. While the response might be that these people can afford it, I remind you that it was the public's money used to bail out the financial institutions.
Rather than a blanket requirement of 10-to-1 leverage, it would be more appropriate to require some sort of training for those who intend to trade, even if this was only confined to risk management issues as opposed to a more general how to trade approach. Traders who could not show sufficient training or experience could be required to pass an online exam that would show they understand risk and money management. The individuals could be assessed a fee for this so that the cost would be borne by those who wished to trade. Brokers could not open an account unless the individual could show proof of passing this exam. This would do more to limit risk than to have a blanket provision such as 10-to-1 margin requirements. This is no different from requiring a driver's license for someone who wishes to drive.
Dianne Fecteau
I wrote about this in January but since there is still time to protest the proposed rule that retail Forex traders should be limited to only 10:1 leverage in their accounts, I wanted to repeat it.
This rule would have the effect of driving small traders to offshore, completely unregulated accounts. Their proposal can be found here:
http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2010/pr5772-10.html
If you disagree with this,you may submit your comments to
secretary@cftc.gov.
Include “Regulation of Retail Forex” in the subject line of the message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.
Also, with the identification number RIN 3038-AC61, you can submit your comments by any of the
following methods:
• Fax: (202) 418-5521.
• Mail: Send to David Stawick, Secretary, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1155
21st Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20581.
• Courier: Same as Mail above.
All comments received will be posted without change to http://www.cftc.gov, including any personal information provided.
Below is the email I sent:
I am writing to object to the proposed regulation of retail Forex traders (RIN 3038-AC61). Specifically, I object to the provision that states, "Leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation."
While I understand you see increasing leverage requirements as increasing consumer protection, the result will be the opposite of what you intend because this provision would drive small retail traders to offshore brokers who are not subject to any regulation. As a result, they may be in danger of losing all their money, regardless of any specific trading decisions they make, because of unethical brokers.
In addition, the retail Forex market is comprised of many different levels of individuals. Your proposed rule does not allow for this. For example, I have passed the three exam series from the Market Technician Association and have been awarded my Chartered Market Technician (CMT) letters. I also have five years of trading experience as an independent trader. I should not be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation and have no idea why you think this would be protective of me. It will prevent me from moving profits out of my trading account on a regular basis because I would need additional capital to maintain margin requirements. The result would be that I would have more money, not less, at risk at any given time.
Finally, it is tempting to say that the small retail trader is most at risk in trading because they're uninformed. This, however, is a questionable statement based on various studies. Research has found that mutual fund managers, newsletter writers, Wall Street strategists, and investment advisors make the same behavioral errors in the financial marketplace as the "uninformed public" does. One only has to look at the behavior that led to the financial crisis of 2008 to know this is true as regards risk. While the response might be that these people can afford it, I remind you that it was the public's money used to bail out the financial institutions.
Rather than a blanket requirement of 10-to-1 leverage, it would be more appropriate to require some sort of training for those who intend to trade, even if this was only confined to risk management issues as opposed to a more general how to trade approach. Traders who could not show sufficient training or experience could be required to pass an online exam that would show they understand risk and money management. The individuals could be assessed a fee for this so that the cost would be borne by those who wished to trade. Brokers could not open an account unless the individual could show proof of passing this exam. This would do more to limit risk than to have a blanket provision such as 10-to-1 margin requirements. This is no different from requiring a driver's license for someone who wishes to drive.
Dianne Fecteau
EURUSD—not a lot of pep
Honestly, this is one sorry pair. Yes, yes, it's being weighed down by all its economic woes, but the pair is aimless. Friday's high was 1.3796; today's high (so far) is 1.3818. The only way to make money since Friday's high was to go short but, if you had done that, the pair only dropped to 1.3640. That's not exactly a lot of pips. It's currently being offered at 1.3776 (7:57 AM EST). To be honest, this was substantial resistance prior to this week so it's not surprising it's faltering here in this little downdraft.
I did go long yesterday at 1.3747 because it bounced from a low of 1.3717 (obviously, I was trading a very short-term chart, 15 minutes to be precise). I had blogged on Friday about how 1.3723 was a confluence level and although it had dropped below that in the interim, it seemed to hold the move this time.
As I wrote last Wednesday, I was thinking it could get to 1.3853 and possibly 1.4039. It's close to 1.3853, true, but as of yet, no cigar. The current, wishy-washy move does look somewhat corrective before another rise but I wouldn't rule out a pullback to 1.3717/29 before it tries for another rally.
Resistance is at 1.3818, 1.3839, and 1.4026. Support is at 1.3747, 1.3717, 1.3657/40, and 1.3551.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I did go long yesterday at 1.3747 because it bounced from a low of 1.3717 (obviously, I was trading a very short-term chart, 15 minutes to be precise). I had blogged on Friday about how 1.3723 was a confluence level and although it had dropped below that in the interim, it seemed to hold the move this time.
As I wrote last Wednesday, I was thinking it could get to 1.3853 and possibly 1.4039. It's close to 1.3853, true, but as of yet, no cigar. The current, wishy-washy move does look somewhat corrective before another rise but I wouldn't rule out a pullback to 1.3717/29 before it tries for another rally.
Resistance is at 1.3818, 1.3839, and 1.4026. Support is at 1.3747, 1.3717, 1.3657/40, and 1.3551.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—weekly
I never get a chance to write in this blog as much as I'd like but each weekend I run weekly charts and analyze the daily action for the week past and project what could happen in the week coming up based on the weekly close. This takes a while as there are many analytical approaches to use. I always intend to post these but, as I said, there never seems to be time to do so.
In any case, here's the weekly chart for the GBPUSD that I ran on Saturday. There are a couple of things about it that caught my attention immediately.
First, for the second week in a row, a doji appeared. The long lower shadow hints that lower prices are being rejected and since this was happening near a support area my general "opinion" from this was that there might be a bounce this week. In addition, the close for the week was higher than the close the week before. Thus, I would be predisposed to going long should the opportunity present itself as long as nothing on the shorter term charts looked ominous. This is partly why I went long yesterday.
The second thing that caught my attention was that the RSI readings didn't drop into oversold on the weekly chart. This is not a signal in and of itself. But it seems to indicate that there's enough buyers coming in to keep the pair from plunging.
Unfortunately, on the weekly and daily chart, this pair is in an overall downtrend. So while buying opportunities may present themselves, one needs to be careful.
If you're actually trading off the weekly chart (and I know few day traders who do), your stops must be wider (i.e. below the recent lows of 1.4783 or 1.4872) but of course the potential resistance and price targets are higher. For example, you could use such weekly highs as 1.5822 or 1.6460
Here's the weekly chart printed as of this past Saturday. Were you to look at one printed off today, you'd see a third candle shaping up with a long lower shadow. This won't be confirmed until the close Friday but it suggests that the pair is hammering out a base at the recent lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
In any case, here's the weekly chart for the GBPUSD that I ran on Saturday. There are a couple of things about it that caught my attention immediately.
First, for the second week in a row, a doji appeared. The long lower shadow hints that lower prices are being rejected and since this was happening near a support area my general "opinion" from this was that there might be a bounce this week. In addition, the close for the week was higher than the close the week before. Thus, I would be predisposed to going long should the opportunity present itself as long as nothing on the shorter term charts looked ominous. This is partly why I went long yesterday.
The second thing that caught my attention was that the RSI readings didn't drop into oversold on the weekly chart. This is not a signal in and of itself. But it seems to indicate that there's enough buyers coming in to keep the pair from plunging.
Unfortunately, on the weekly and daily chart, this pair is in an overall downtrend. So while buying opportunities may present themselves, one needs to be careful.
If you're actually trading off the weekly chart (and I know few day traders who do), your stops must be wider (i.e. below the recent lows of 1.4783 or 1.4872) but of course the potential resistance and price targets are higher. For example, you could use such weekly highs as 1.5822 or 1.6460
Here's the weekly chart printed as of this past Saturday. Were you to look at one printed off today, you'd see a third candle shaping up with a long lower shadow. This won't be confirmed until the close Friday but it suggests that the pair is hammering out a base at the recent lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—soaring
My long from 136.40 stopped just above breakeven so I established another long at 136.83 since nothing had changed. I was probably a little too cautious, moving my stop too quickly to breakeven but this happens. In any case, the pair is up nicely, riding the coattails of the pound this morning. I've moved my stop to 137.45 and will just see where it goes. Should the pair pull back to 138.18 (the breakout point from the range), adding to my long is definitely something I'll look at. As I wrote yesterday, 138.09/26 was tough resistance so if it can clear it again, the outlook is good for this pair to climb higher even though it's in an overall downtrend.
Resistance is at 139.00, 140.00, and 141.40, 142.10, and 143.65. Support is at 138.09/18, 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, 134.93, 134.00, and 133.92.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance is at 139.00, 140.00, and 141.40, 142.10, and 143.65. Support is at 138.09/18, 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, 134.93, 134.00, and 133.92.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—broadening on hourly
I went long early yesterday at 1.5138. The pair climbed after the non-news of the FOMC and reached a high of 1.5337 this morning. It developed a broadening pattern which after a rise can be deadly. While one can make the case for additional gains, I wrote last Friday that the pennant pattern had a potential target of 1.5316 which was near the 2/26 high of 1.5323. That's why I just took partial profits at +170 pips.
The BOE just released its minutes containing the statement, "Some members considered the upside risks to inflation had increased slightly over the month; others felt that the balance of risks had not changed materially." Now there's a statement. They can't decide what the situation is. This, of course, should explain to anyone why the GBPUSD shot to the upside, right?
Support is at 1.5277, 1.5210, 1.5174, and 1.4978. Resistance is at 1.5341 (where it is now at 5:45 AM EST), 1.5520, 1.5415, and 1.5816.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The BOE just released its minutes containing the statement, "Some members considered the upside risks to inflation had increased slightly over the month; others felt that the balance of risks had not changed materially." Now there's a statement. They can't decide what the situation is. This, of course, should explain to anyone why the GBPUSD shot to the upside, right?
Support is at 1.5277, 1.5210, 1.5174, and 1.4978. Resistance is at 1.5341 (where it is now at 5:45 AM EST), 1.5520, 1.5415, and 1.5816.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
FOMC today
The market hasn't been doing much since about 7:15AM EST, no doubt because of FOMC later today. Nobody seriously expects any change in interest rates but the statement will be scrutinized for hints that interest rates may increase in the future. In any case, don't expect a lot of movement until after it's over.
USDCAD—drifting lower to support
The pair has meandered down close to last week's low of 1.0155. (1.0165 as of 7:22 Am EST). It doesn't seem to be in any hurry to drop so we'll have to see if it finds support there. As I wrote yesterday, the pair may range for a while in between this low and 1.0209. It might be OK to try a small long here at the bottom. There is some positive divergence. We're not talking about a lot of potential pips back up to 1.0209 but the stop can be very tight so the risk-reward ratio is OK. (Don't risk more than 15 or so pips on this trade).
Support is at 1.0155, 1.01, 1.0060, .9819, and .9711. Resistance is 1.0209, 1.0251, 1.0322, 1.0444, and 1.0500.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.0155, 1.01, 1.0060, .9819, and .9711. Resistance is 1.0209, 1.0251, 1.0322, 1.0444, and 1.0500.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—update
I took partial profits at +76 pips. It looks like it's successfully clearing 137. If it continues up, then 138.09/26 will be tough resistance. After that, and once it clears the next round number at 139, resistance is at 140.00. Support is at 137.00, 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, 134.93, 134.00, and 133.92.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—reversed again
This pair, too, is in an upward channel that's a bear flag on the daily chart. The range of that channel appears to be contracting. My short position from 136.58 profit stopped out at +28 pips. When I woke up this morning, I'd missed the low of 135.19 from overnight. However, it looked like a definitive bounce so I went long at 136.40. I'm currently at breakeven with my stop.
While the top of the range is 138.16 (where the pair will find formidable resistance), I actually have potential profit targets for this pair at 145.50/90. That's not to say it will make it, of course. It just hints at possibilities. There is some negative divergence showing up from last week on the three-hour chart so it won't be a straight, easy ride if it does happen. If I'm stopped, I'll probably try again as long as price stays inside the channel.
Resistance is at 137.00 (where it's currently hovering), 138.09/26 (strong), and 140.00. Support is at 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, 134.93, 134.00, and 133.92.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
While the top of the range is 138.16 (where the pair will find formidable resistance), I actually have potential profit targets for this pair at 145.50/90. That's not to say it will make it, of course. It just hints at possibilities. There is some negative divergence showing up from last week on the three-hour chart so it won't be a straight, easy ride if it does happen. If I'm stopped, I'll probably try again as long as price stays inside the channel.
Resistance is at 137.00 (where it's currently hovering), 138.09/26 (strong), and 140.00. Support is at 136.00, 135.52/45, 135.19, 134.93, 134.00, and 133.92.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—found support
EURJPY seems to have found support at the bottom of the upward sloping channel (or bear flag on the daily chart). Its low overnight was 123.24, a few pips above the next support level. My short from 125.03 profit stopped out at 124.15 for + 88 pips. I have not re-entered long—I'll wait for a pullback and see if this rally will have any legs. The other issue is that 124.15/20 is a confluence level of fib calculations so I want to see what it does here.
Resistance is at 125.20, 125.31, 125.88, 126.39 and 126.90, and 127.02. 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66). Support is at 1.2401, 123.24, 122.34, 121.37 and 120.30.
Here's the three-hour chart. Forgetting about the upward channel for the moment, you can also see the range over the last several weeks from 119.66 to 125.25:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance is at 125.20, 125.31, 125.88, 126.39 and 126.90, and 127.02. 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66). Support is at 1.2401, 123.24, 122.34, 121.37 and 120.30.
Here's the three-hour chart. Forgetting about the upward channel for the moment, you can also see the range over the last several weeks from 119.66 to 125.25:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, March 15, 2010
EURUSD—at support
As I wrote last week, the 1.3651 to 1.3697 area is good support for Euro because of fib confluence. It touched a low of 1.3649 just now. Depending on price action, and more importantly momentum, either a short or a long could be in the cards. My remaining long from 1.3587 profit-stopped out at +80 pips so I'm flat.
Next support is at 1.3635 (the top of the triangle it broke up from). After that, support is at 1.3561, 1.3531, and 1.3435. If it turns up again, look for resistance at 1.3721/26, 1.3796, 1.3839, and 1.4026.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Next support is at 1.3635 (the top of the triangle it broke up from). After that, support is at 1.3561, 1.3531, and 1.3435. If it turns up again, look for resistance at 1.3721/26, 1.3796, 1.3839, and 1.4026.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—update
I took partial profits at +85 pips from my short at 125.03. Currently, the pair is finding some support with a low so far of 124.08, exactly where I wrote earlier it would find support. The reason that's important to me is that the pair is "behaving" as it were, according to my analysis. If it should start to bounce seriously from here, it will probably take another run at that 125.25 top. Obviously, the rest of my trade is profit-stopped. Depending on price action, I might take another short if it gets back up to the 125 level.
If it confidently drops below 124, look for support at 123.17, 122.59, 121.89 and 121.47. If the pair clears 125.25, it could have a fairly easy climb up to 126.39. Next would be 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66).
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If it confidently drops below 124, look for support at 123.17, 122.59, 121.89 and 121.47. If the pair clears 125.25, it could have a fairly easy climb up to 126.39. Next would be 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66).
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—Weekly chart
You can see on the weekly chart I ran on Saturday that the pair broke its long-term uptrend line from late 2007. This isn't good. In addition, the climb from .9058 to 1.3065 was 4,007 pips. The retracement of that climb to the Friday close of 1.0193 is 71.6%. Ouch.
Support may come in at 1.0155 which was the low last week. The pair may range for a while in between this and 1.0209. The range is best seen on the one- or three-hour chart. Not a great range as to potential pips but at the top and bottom the stop can be tight. I may try a trade.
If the pair continues to drop there may be a bounce at the 75% retracement or 1.0060. Otherwise, expect support to come in at .9819, then .9711. On the up side, is 1.0205 (its high so far today is 1.0209), 1.0251, 1.0322, 1.0444, and ha-ha, 1.0500. Well, it could make it.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support may come in at 1.0155 which was the low last week. The pair may range for a while in between this and 1.0209. The range is best seen on the one- or three-hour chart. Not a great range as to potential pips but at the top and bottom the stop can be tight. I may try a trade.
If the pair continues to drop there may be a bounce at the 75% retracement or 1.0060. Otherwise, expect support to come in at .9819, then .9711. On the up side, is 1.0205 (its high so far today is 1.0209), 1.0251, 1.0322, 1.0444, and ha-ha, 1.0500. Well, it could make it.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—back and forth
I keep going long and short, back and forth, on this pair as it continues to send out conflicting signals. Currently, I'm long from .9080 and the last candle on the three-hour chart was bullish as could be. But the pair is approaching .9134, a point it fell back from last week. Just beyond that is .9150, a price it also rejected at the beginning of March and near the .9152/3 highs from the end of November. While the moves since that high look somewhat corrective, this pair isn't out of the woods until it solidly closes above .9150. As a result, I've already moved my stop to just better than breakeven.
Support is at .9045, .9000, .8982, .8920, and .8751. Resistance is at .9134, .9150/3, and .9216. Beyond that is the .9412 high from last October.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .9045, .9000, .8982, .8920, and .8751. Resistance is at .9134, .9150/3, and .9216. Beyond that is the .9412 high from last October.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—be flexible
The remainder of my last long stopped136.20 profit-stopped out early this morning at 136.67. I then shorted the pair at 136.58 based on the fact that it faltered three times near the 138 level. As I wrote last week, 137.91 was 50% of the move down from February 17 so it's not surprising that capped it, at least for the moment. The moves, in general, look somewhat corrective so it's possible the pair is getting ready to resume its downtrend. For now, though, it's sitting at support of 136.46. I've moved my stop to breakeven.
Support is at 135.52/45, 134.93, 134.00 and 133.92. Resistance is at 137.20, 138.09, 139.59, and 141.68.
This pair has been tricky lately (some would say it's always tricky) but the way to trade it is to stay flexible and be willing to go both long and short. Some traders have difficulty doing that but if they do it's a good opportunity to ask why.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 135.52/45, 134.93, 134.00 and 133.92. Resistance is at 137.20, 138.09, 139.59, and 141.68.
This pair has been tricky lately (some would say it's always tricky) but the way to trade it is to stay flexible and be willing to go both long and short. Some traders have difficulty doing that but if they do it's a good opportunity to ask why.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—malingering
Last we left this pair there was an evening star on the hourly chart and I finally went short at 125.03 despite the momentum not really accelerating to the downside. It has since dropped 63 pips (as of 6:10 AM EST) but it seems to be doing so reluctantly. Sometimes when pairs malinger just below a resistance level, it means they're getting ready to get through it. I have my stop set at +10 so we'll see what happens. Last week there were plenty of mixed signals so I hope we're not in for another week of that.
On the three-hour chart you can see a triangle forming. In EW speak this is bullish as price breaks out upward. It could also be interpreted as a bull pennant. Offsetting this is a somewhat bearish divergence. In addition, if you take .382 of the most recent move down (from 134.38 to 119.66), you have 125.26 so this adds to the resistance it found at the prior top.
Looking at the bigger picture, the pair climbed from Jan to June 2009 but the subsequent correction has eroded that rise quite significantly. If one sees this pair as moving into a horizontal range, then the range extends down to 119.95. A short from the top here could be quite lucrative.
Support is at 124.08, 123.17, 122.59, 121.89 and 121.47. If the pair clears the top of the triangle at 124.80, it could have a fairly easy climb up to 126.39. Next would be 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66).
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the three-hour chart you can see a triangle forming. In EW speak this is bullish as price breaks out upward. It could also be interpreted as a bull pennant. Offsetting this is a somewhat bearish divergence. In addition, if you take .382 of the most recent move down (from 134.38 to 119.66), you have 125.26 so this adds to the resistance it found at the prior top.
Looking at the bigger picture, the pair climbed from Jan to June 2009 but the subsequent correction has eroded that rise quite significantly. If one sees this pair as moving into a horizontal range, then the range extends down to 119.95. A short from the top here could be quite lucrative.
Support is at 124.08, 123.17, 122.59, 121.89 and 121.47. If the pair clears the top of the triangle at 124.80, it could have a fairly easy climb up to 126.39. Next would be 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66).
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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