Friday, April 9, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
EURJPY--rallying
I tried a long earlier this morning at 123.68 and have just taken partial profits at +75 pips. That may be as good as it gets this week and that comment shows I'm losing patience with this market. I always pull back a bit when I find myself getting impatient or irritable. It's understandable today because I have a flu of some sort but then one could ask, why am I trading at all? A very good question.
In any case, EURJPY had retraced .618 and was at a prior support level so that meant my stop could be tight. No doubt this pair's performance will be linked with the general Euro performance.
Support is at 123.79, 123.68, 122.99, 121.41 and 121.06. Resistance is at 124.54, 126.16, and 127.94.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
In any case, EURJPY had retraced .618 and was at a prior support level so that meant my stop could be tight. No doubt this pair's performance will be linked with the general Euro performance.
Support is at 123.79, 123.68, 122.99, 121.41 and 121.06. Resistance is at 124.54, 126.16, and 127.94.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—update
After my short stopped at breakeven, I tried a long at 1.3308. The rally has brought this up to a high so far of 1.3354 and of course I've moved the stop to breakeven. Euro may be churning with no definitive moves today.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USD Index
Taking a look at the daily USD index, you can see it's in an uptrend for the year. It's also been in an uptrend since the April 1 low of 80.68. The chart below is a little difficult to read with all the Gann angles but the bottom line is that the index needs to climb above 82 to then have a shot at 83 and possibly higher. 82 is a polarity area. As to the Gann followers, they've been calling for the decline of the index for months. Despite their passionate beliefs, you can't trade on Gann angles alone.
Here's the chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—rally
My long in USDCHF at 1.0706 is still on with a profit stop just better than breakeven. The high was 1.0786 but it has since fallen back to a low of 1.0752 today.
I wrote yesterday that a "clean break above 1.0751 would build confidence that the pair will continue trending up…" If the low of 1.0752 holds then this is further indication of a rally that may continue back to the 1.08 level.
The hourly chart looks fairly clean with just a hint of the RSI breaking below its trend line in the current pullback.
Support is at 1.0751, 1.0738, 1.0712, 1.0680, 1.0585, and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0810 and 1.0890.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I wrote yesterday that a "clean break above 1.0751 would build confidence that the pair will continue trending up…" If the low of 1.0752 holds then this is further indication of a rally that may continue back to the 1.08 level.
The hourly chart looks fairly clean with just a hint of the RSI breaking below its trend line in the current pullback.
Support is at 1.0751, 1.0738, 1.0712, 1.0680, 1.0585, and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0810 and 1.0890.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—still weak
Weak it may be but this is a good example of how you can fail to make money with a pair that is weak. My short from 1.3372 stopped out at breakeven on the slight rise to 1.3378. Had I been on top of the situation—i.e. actively trading—I would have caught it and reinstituted a short position, particularly since I had taken on another short below that point prior to the stop. But I wasn't. As a result, even though the pair then dropped again I didn't gain from it. I'm not regretful because one, I didn't lose money and two, these things happen. I've been fighting a flu this week and it definitely is affecting my trading. At least most of the pairs are as listless as I've felt so I haven't missed a lot of great moves. But the point is that if you're short-term trading, these things can get away from you.
Back to the Euro. My short is now from 1.3329. The pair dropped to a low of 1.3283 this morning and is now rallying a bit. 1.3402 was yesterday's high so the drop has not been dramatic. Basically, the Euro is puttering about, either delaying the inevitable (a drop to 1.29) or continuing a corrective wave two that would reach to at least 1.3818.
There's bullish divergence on the hourly chart. Divergences are present in many of the pairs and this indicates a confused market. It will sort itself out. If the market begins to press below 1.3267 or if the rally looks as though it's gaining momentum, those will be clues one way or the other. However, this waffling can continue for a while.
Support is at 1.3283 and 1.3267. If it breaks that, it's a new ballgame (one hopes). Resistance is at 1.3402/9, 1.3477/86, 1.3529 (strong) and 1.3591.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Back to the Euro. My short is now from 1.3329. The pair dropped to a low of 1.3283 this morning and is now rallying a bit. 1.3402 was yesterday's high so the drop has not been dramatic. Basically, the Euro is puttering about, either delaying the inevitable (a drop to 1.29) or continuing a corrective wave two that would reach to at least 1.3818.
There's bullish divergence on the hourly chart. Divergences are present in many of the pairs and this indicates a confused market. It will sort itself out. If the market begins to press below 1.3267 or if the rally looks as though it's gaining momentum, those will be clues one way or the other. However, this waffling can continue for a while.
Support is at 1.3283 and 1.3267. If it breaks that, it's a new ballgame (one hopes). Resistance is at 1.3402/9, 1.3477/86, 1.3529 (strong) and 1.3591.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
AUDUSD—above breakout point
After its break above the daily downtrend line yesterday, the pair reached a high of .9289 before retracing almost .382 to this morning's low of .9249. As long as it stays above the downtrend line, currently coming in at .9229, it should stay poised to rally further. I took a small long position this morning at .9264. As with the other pairs, there are some conflicting signals on the charts so tight stops are a necessity.
Support is at .9242, .9229, .9202 (strong), .9166 and .9131. Resistance is at .9289, .9330, and .9406. A lot of bulls are waiting for that .9406 but they may have to wait a while.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .9242, .9229, .9202 (strong), .9166 and .9131. Resistance is at .9289, .9330, and .9406. A lot of bulls are waiting for that .9406 but they may have to wait a while.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—choppy
Yesterday, I bought USDCHF at 1.0706. I've moved the stop to breakeven but the pair is in choppy waters as it approaches resistance. The candles on the hourly chart are throwing off upper shadows which hints higher prices are being rejected. Again, I can't stress enough that the markets are sending mixed signals this week and standing aside may be best until there is a clear direction. In the case of this pair, a clean break above 1.0751 would build confidence that the pair will continue trending up for the time being.
Support is at 1.0680, 1.0585, and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0751 and 1.0890. Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.0680, 1.0585, and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0751 and 1.0890. Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—weak
My small long position from 1.3403 stopped out at 1.3367 early yesterday morning. I then tried a short at 1.3372 which is now at breakeven. The pair is stalling. It seems to be the nature of the markets this week—the pairs don't seem to want to take a clear direction which is only saying that traders don't see a clear direction. Eventually this will work its way out.
Arguing from an Elliott Wave perspective you could say the pair should be rising as a correction from the wave down from 1.5144 to the recent low of 1.3267. If so, one should expect a rise to at least 1.3818 and probably further. This would be wave two. Then three could begin. However, at least this morning, it doesn't seem as though that's unfolding. From a cycle analysis point of view there is downward pressure on the Euro so that may be interfering.
The last hourly candle was a hammer. A drop below its low of 1.3334 will negate its bullish signal and be a sign of further weakness. There is bullish divergence, though, on the hourly chart.
Support is at 1.3334, and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3409, 1.3477/86, 1.3529 (strong) and 1.3591.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Arguing from an Elliott Wave perspective you could say the pair should be rising as a correction from the wave down from 1.5144 to the recent low of 1.3267. If so, one should expect a rise to at least 1.3818 and probably further. This would be wave two. Then three could begin. However, at least this morning, it doesn't seem as though that's unfolding. From a cycle analysis point of view there is downward pressure on the Euro so that may be interfering.
The last hourly candle was a hammer. A drop below its low of 1.3334 will negate its bullish signal and be a sign of further weakness. There is bullish divergence, though, on the hourly chart.
Support is at 1.3334, and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3409, 1.3477/86, 1.3529 (strong) and 1.3591.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
EURUSD—possible rally
The Euro has dropped to a low of 1.3403 where it appears to have been caught by support. If 1.3403 doesn't hold, it's possible it may return to 1.3267. I took a small long at 1.3407. As seems to be the rule this morning, the stop can be tight so it is worth a try especially with the slight positive divergence on the hourly chart. These are fairly tricky markets so far this week so caution is advised in the form of tight stops.
Support is at 1.3385, 1.3347, and 1.3267. By the time it got down there I would have probably stopped and reversed. Resistance is at 1.3439, 1.3477/86, 1.3538/42 (strong) and 1.3591.
Here's the one-hour chart:
Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.3385, 1.3347, and 1.3267. By the time it got down there I would have probably stopped and reversed. Resistance is at 1.3439, 1.3477/86, 1.3538/42 (strong) and 1.3591.
Here's the one-hour chart:
Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—possible base
EURGBP may have found a base at .8810, yesterday's low. That low is the bottom of its channel, a .618 fib retracement level (.9154 - .8603), and a prior support zone so I took a small long position on the small bounce up this morning. There's also positive divergence on the 3-hour chart. Basically, though, this position is made palatable by the tight stop it allows me to have. Remember, the pair is in an overall downtrend and Euro is weak—of course it's possible the pound is weaker.
Support is at .8795, .8751, .8658, and .8603. Resistance is at .8860, .8895, .8945, .9026, and .9058.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8795, .8751, .8658, and .8603. Resistance is at .8860, .8895, .8945, .9026, and .9058.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—ready to climb?
After a drop to .9166, the pair popped up to .9252 this morning after the hawkish tone of the central bank statement (and rate hike). In doing so, AUDUSD broke the daily downtrend line from the November high. In addition, it's forming a triangle on the short-term charts.
It has resistance here at .9252 which was the March 17 high. One is safest waiting for a pullback or buying a clear break. Something to note is that today's low was 2 pips lower, at .9166, then yesterday's low of .9168. This isn't robust behavior but an uptrend is an uptrend and a hawkish central bank is a hawkish central bank. Support is at the bottom of the triangle at .9231 and then at .9166, .9084, and .8988. Resistance is .9252, .9330 and .9406 (the November high).
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
It has resistance here at .9252 which was the March 17 high. One is safest waiting for a pullback or buying a clear break. Something to note is that today's low was 2 pips lower, at .9166, then yesterday's low of .9168. This isn't robust behavior but an uptrend is an uptrend and a hawkish central bank is a hawkish central bank. Support is at the bottom of the triangle at .9231 and then at .9166, .9084, and .8988. Resistance is .9252, .9330 and .9406 (the November high).
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—heading towards parity
USDCAD declined to 1.0004 and is at lows last seen in July 2008 so while parity seems to be a given, the question is how low it might sink from here.
One thing that's interesting on the weekly chart is that momentum, as measured by RSI, is not getting below 30 into an oversold area. However there's also no positive divergence on the weekly chart. There is positive divergence on the daily, 3-hour, and hourly chart and since the pair is tremendously oversold, one might expect a rally at some point. No doubt any rallies will be used to short. It's possible the lower boundary of the channel and prior support could result in .9863 or .9819 stopping (or at least delaying) further declines. Should a rally take place (and I'm sure everyone would be stunned if it did), one might look to 1.0067, 1.0129 and 1.0197.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
One thing that's interesting on the weekly chart is that momentum, as measured by RSI, is not getting below 30 into an oversold area. However there's also no positive divergence on the weekly chart. There is positive divergence on the daily, 3-hour, and hourly chart and since the pair is tremendously oversold, one might expect a rally at some point. No doubt any rallies will be used to short. It's possible the lower boundary of the channel and prior support could result in .9863 or .9819 stopping (or at least delaying) further declines. Should a rally take place (and I'm sure everyone would be stunned if it did), one might look to 1.0067, 1.0129 and 1.0197.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, April 5, 2010
EURUSD—weekly chart
The market is in a post-holiday period of non-action but Euro appears weak with a weekly close below its high last week. My short from 1.3527 stopped at breakeven. Looking at the weekly chart, one can see we're in a downward sloping channel. Drifting down to the bottom of that channel would put us in the 1.28 area. Given the Euro's downward pressures this could be achievable.
Short-term, the pair needs to get cleanly above 1.3591, last week's high in order to make anyone believe it can climb further. If it does, 1.3738 is possible which would then put 1.3818 in sight. A break below last week's low of 1.3385 would hint that the downward move is going to resume to at least a retest 1.3267.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Short-term, the pair needs to get cleanly above 1.3591, last week's high in order to make anyone believe it can climb further. If it does, 1.3738 is possible which would then put 1.3818 in sight. A break below last week's low of 1.3385 would hint that the downward move is going to resume to at least a retest 1.3267.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURCHF—after intervention, what?
The SNB finally intervened last week, sending the pair from a low of 1.4145 to 1.4411 in the course of an hour on April 1. Now, with the market sluggish since then, it's unclear as to whether this will hold. The weekly chart showed a doji but it's not really a hammer as the upper shadow is a bit too long. However, just as it climbed from an imperfect hammer in 2008 (arrow points to it), it can climb from this one. There is significant downward pressure on the Euro so it won't be easy. A .382 retracement from 1.5382 would have the pair at 1.4617 which is also near a price resistance level so it would be a good short. 1.48 and 1.51 would be the next resistance levels after that. If price starts to falter before a climb gets underway, a short that expected moves back to the 1.41 lows is justified but now that there has been intervention once this year, it's likely to happen again.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—setting up for bigger move
AUDUSD has been trading in a narrow range of .9183 to .9219 since April 1. It's near that resistance point now. A definitive break upwards would likely take it to .9322/66 before it finds too much resistance; a break downward to .9086 before finding substantial support.
There are not a lot of clues on longer-term or shorter-term charts as to which way it will break but it is worth keeping in mind that the pair is in a long-term uptrend, not only from the lows of 2008 but from 2001 and that momentum, as measured by RSI on longer-term charts, is positive (over 50 for the most part). One can make a case for a bull flag forming on the monthly chart and a move up from that flag (currently the upper flag boundary is .9208 which is where the pair is) would be huge, blowing past parity with the USD. However, that move would take time, most likely unfolding over the next year. For short term traders it's of little use unless you want to make sure that all trades you take are in the direction of the underlying trend. That's not a bad idea but the pair is definitely in a corrective, sideways period so it needs to stay above .8578 for the prevailing trend to be seen as up. If the pair cleanly drops from its narrow range, the bottom of the possible flag at .8384 is not out of the question and that would muddy the picture somewhat. Before that, however, it would need to drop below .8917, the weekly uptrend line from .8578.
The best approach right now seems to be to wait until it cleanly breaks .9219 or falters.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There are not a lot of clues on longer-term or shorter-term charts as to which way it will break but it is worth keeping in mind that the pair is in a long-term uptrend, not only from the lows of 2008 but from 2001 and that momentum, as measured by RSI on longer-term charts, is positive (over 50 for the most part). One can make a case for a bull flag forming on the monthly chart and a move up from that flag (currently the upper flag boundary is .9208 which is where the pair is) would be huge, blowing past parity with the USD. However, that move would take time, most likely unfolding over the next year. For short term traders it's of little use unless you want to make sure that all trades you take are in the direction of the underlying trend. That's not a bad idea but the pair is definitely in a corrective, sideways period so it needs to stay above .8578 for the prevailing trend to be seen as up. If the pair cleanly drops from its narrow range, the bottom of the possible flag at .8384 is not out of the question and that would muddy the picture somewhat. Before that, however, it would need to drop below .8917, the weekly uptrend line from .8578.
The best approach right now seems to be to wait until it cleanly breaks .9219 or falters.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Slow getting started
After taking a long holiday weekend, I'm a bit slow getting started today. After a quarter ends, I always analyze quarterly, monthly and weekly charts anew and after the moves last week it's important to do so. I'll post soon on specific pairs.
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