EURUSD—new low

Euro dropped to a new low of 1.3202 yesterday although it then rallied back to a high of 1.3346. I wrote yesterday that I'd expect to see more buying the closer it gets to 1.33 and that appears to be what happened. The weekly picture isn't pretty with a low it hasn't seen since May 2009. There is, though, some positive divergence on the daily chart.

I'm still short from 1.3392.

Support is at 1.3202, 1.3128, 1.30 (big psychological), 1.2965 and 1.2863. Resistance is at 1.3346, 1.3422, 1.3447, 1.3525, 1.3585/91, and 1.3692.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—weak

My long from 1.5358 stopped out at +2 pips above breakeven, not a huge surprise given this pair's listless attitude. The pair is weak. It broke below good support of 1.5333 reaching a low yesterday of 1.5321 and of 1.5296 so far this morning. That's not a lot below but it is below. I shorted earlier at 1.5362 and just took partial profits at +53 pips. There's potential for this pair to drop to below 1.49 but it's going to have to break some good support before it does that.

You can see on the hourly chart how it keeps breaking uptrend lines. Otherwise the chart is remarkable only for the indecision shown by the upper and lower shadows on the candles. I wish they'd hurry up and get their May 6 general election over with. Perhaps it will help traders decide on a direction for this pair.

Resistance is at 1.5333, 1.5398, 1.5474, and 1.5523. Support is at 1.5291, 1.5130, 1.4971 and 1.4798.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—successful retest of support

USDCHF continued its rally up to a high of 1.0851 overnight before falling back to 1.0746. I wrote yesterday that if the pair dropped back to 1.0741, I'd add to my position. This would have been a retest of the downtrend line coming in from April 2009. I was asleep at the time but I did add a small position after I woke up this morning at 1.0774 since it appears it retested it and started up again. The drop back to 1.0746 was also approximately .618 retracement of the move from 1.0674 to 1.0851. On the hourly chart a hammer formed so the low needs to hold for the picture to continue to appear bullish. In addition to taking a second position, I tightened the stop on my first long from 1.0636.

Support is at 1.0746/41, 1.0694, 1.0660/74, 1.0603, 1.0542/35, 1.0503 and 1.0435. Resistance is at, 1.0851, 1.0876, 1.09, and 1.1060.

Here's the one-hour chart:















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—not a lot of action

Yesterday I blogged I went short at.8679. I took some partial profits at .8647 for +32 pips because it seemed to be slowing its descent. The pair went on to drop to a low of .8608 and then rose quickly before I woke up this morning to stop me out at breakeven. The rise seemed to be news related although Greek debt problems and the UK having a lower than expected GDP hardly seem newsworthy. I just reshorted at .8675.

Why did I short again? I pointed out the triangle on the daily chart yesterday where it was nudging the triangle's lower line. By sinking to .8608, it clearly broke that lower line although not by much. Thus, its bounce may have been a possible retest before continuing down. In addition, .8700 is going to serve as resistance now. We'll just have to wait and see what it's going to do. I moved my stop to breakeven already—if it's going to drop it will do so soon.

Support is at .8631, .8603, .8500, .8456 and .8400. Resistance is at .8686, .8700, .8744, .8865, .9026 and .9130/50.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—new low

Euro touched a new low of 1.3259 after more news of Greek debt problems. You'd think the market would have discounted this by now but apparently not completely.

EURUSD—update

Euro has dropped to a low of 1.3283 and I just took partial profits at +104 pips. Let's see if it can rally from here a bit which would most likely be a chance to add new shorts. However, watch momentum.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—good rally

From its move off of yesterday's 1.0660 support, the pair has reached a high of 1.0758. I just took a bit more profit at +118 pips of my long from 1.0636 since I want to leave my stop fairly wide for now (although of course it's above breakeven). My concern is that the high today is not that far above yesterday morning's high although it has cleared the 1.0693 resistance. It's also above a short-term downtrend line on the hourly chart but is currently toughing it out with a much longer one coming in from April 2009. A drop back to that line at 1.0741 may cause me to add to my long position.

Support is at 1.0741, 1.0694, 1.0660/74, 1.0603, 1.0542/35, 1.0503 and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0758/64, 1.0786, 1.08, 1.0876, 1.09, and 1.1060.

Here's the one-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—waffling

My long at .8703 stopped out at .8675 for – 28 pips. I then went short at .8679 where I have the stop at breakeven. Now, of course, it's waffling, having pulled back from a low of .8656 this morning. This is a support area so I'm not willing to take a lot of risk on the trade. With both the Euro and the pound weak, it's possible this pair will stall.

Looking at the daily chart one can see the pair is nudging the bottom line of its triangle, suggesting there may be room for further lows now that it broke the .8700 level. As I wrote yesterday, .8700 was a tough resistance price for the pair for much of the summer of 2009. In Jan/Feb of this year, the pair dipped to .8603 and then hovered at support of .8660 or so for much of that period. I also still have a price target of .8580 for this pair from other calculations. The calculated target based on the triangle it has been coiling within is much lower, obviously, but I'm not sure how realistic that is, at least at the current time.

Support is at .8660, .8603, .8500, .8456 and .8400. Resistance is at .8700, .8744, .8865, .9026 and .9130/50.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—lacks pep

The cable is drifting slowly higher but it lacks pep to say the least. Tuesday's high was 1.5434; today's high is 1.5474. You can't bunt it out of the park. It has fallen back from there this morning. The pair has now broken two short-term uptrend lines and the second break was accompanied by a breaking of the RSI uptrend line. If this third line breaks then it shows real weakness as it will also drop below the low of the hammer a couple of candles ago on the hourly chart. Even if it does this, though, there is still support at 1.5333. Breaking that level would probably cause me to short the pair.

My long from 1.5358 is profit-stopped although only somewhat better than breakeven.

Resistance is at 1.5434, 1.5474, 1.5453, and 1.5523. Support is at 1.5374, 1.5333, 1.5291, and 1.5192.

Here's the hourly chart:


















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—weakness continues

Euro is threatening its low so far this morning of 1.3332 and in getting here broke through any 1.3350 option barriers. Now, of course, it's not that far away from the 1.3283/67 lows.

I took partial profits from my short from 1.3453 at 1.3377 for +76 pips and the remainder profit-stopped out at 1.3413 for +40 pips. I had added a short yesterday at 1.3392 and that trade currently has a stop at better than breakeven.

If you're not already short this is probably not the place to jump in. The pair is obviously trying to base and it seems clear there was buying at the 1.34 level although not enough to get a rally going yesterday. I'd expect to see more buying the closer it gets to 1.33. There's a short-term uptrend line coming in at 1.3313 from March. That said, the pair has been weak all week and it's curently below last week's low of 1.3472. Unless a serious bounce takes place it's looking at a lower low and lower high this week. The positive divergence that existed on yesterday's three-hour chart is working its way out without a rise in price. The last completed three-hour candle was very bearish with not much in the way of an upper or lower shadow.

Support is at 1.3313/07, 1.3283 and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3366, 1.3422, 1.3447, 1.3525, 1.3585/91, and—glory days—the April 11 high of 1.3692.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—at good support

This pair is at an attractive support level, having dropped to a low of .8685 this morning. .8700 was a tough resistance price for the pair for much of the summer of 2009. In Jan/Feb of this year, the pair dipped no lower than .8603 and hovered at support of .8660 or so for much of that period. I just went long at .8703.

One problem is that I still have a price target of .8580 for this pair. I've been mostly short until recently (these trades haven't been in the blog). However, I can have a tight stop on this trade. If it drops much below .8580 I'd probably get out and study momentum more carefully before deciding what to do. Another long entry point would be .8603.

Looking at the daily chart you can see that the pair is coiling. A break in either direction would probably lead to a very large move.

Support is at .8660, .8603, .8500, .8456 and .8400. Resistance is at .8865, .9026 and .9130/50.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—weekly chart

Yes, the pair is still in an uptrend but price has been contained since November in a sideways correction. It's lingering at the top of the rectangle and this is often a sign that the break will be upward. However it absolutely must clear the April 11 high of .9383 and then the November high of .9406. Otherwise, if it begins to drift downwards again, one could begin to build a case that the trend that began in October, 2008 might be reversing or, at the least, price is retargeting the bottom of the rectangle at .8578/.8613. That would make a lot of AUDUSD bulls unhappy. On a much more short-term basis, i.e. hourly, support is at .9274.

If, on the other hand, the pair breaks upward of the rectangle, one could expect a solid move up to the July, 2008 high of .9851 and possibly beyond, to parity.

Here's the weekly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—bounced from 1.0660

The pair used its prior resistance of 1.0660 as support earlier this morning. This is a positive development. So far it has reached a high of 1.0725, exceeding it's 1.0711 high from overnight. Monday's high was 1.0693 so this is a resistance level it's going to have to get solidly above in order to achieve higher highs. Higher will also take USDCHF above the downtrend line. There is, though, still negative divergence. Should the pair falter and drop back to the 1.0525 area, it will be very attractive as a long.

My long from 1.0636 is still in play. I took a bit more in profits at +80 pips but will leave the rest of the trade alone for now to see if it can begin running.

Support is at 1.0694, 1.0660, 1.0603, 1.0527/35, 1.0503 and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0725, 1.0764/88, 1.08, and 1.09.

Here's the one-hour chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—moved lower

Euro broke below the confluence zone to a low so far of 1.3358. 1.34 will now become resistance.

GBPUSD—anemic rally

Yesterday's high was 1.5434 but the little rally that got it there and that has taken place since the subsequent low at 1.5333 is nothing but anemic. The pair also broke the short-term uptrend line I drew on my hourly chart yesterday. It's shown in blue on the chart below with the new uptrend line in black.

What the market has done, though, is confirm 1.5333 as a good suport level. Yesterday, I identified support at 1.5336 so the fact the market has respected that level again tells us something. What is it that it tells? First, if it breaks below there, then one can probably expect lower lows. Second, the low is higher than the previous day's low of 1.5192 by a substantial number of pips.

My long from 1.5358 is stopped at just better than breakeven. If it's taken out I'll be watching to see if price breaks that support of 1.5333. If it does, I'll probably short. If it looks as though it's rallying I may take another long.

Resistance is at 1.5416/34, 1.5453, and 1.5523. Support is at 1.5370, 1.5333, 1.5291, and 1.5192.

Here's the hourly chart:
















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—drifting lower

I reversed my position yesterday and shorted at 1.3453 after the pair came off its high and made it abundantly clear it wasn't going to have the traction needed to go higher. This meant the remainder of my long was closed at +22 pips. I may take some partial profits soon.

How did the pair make this abundantly clear that it couldn't go further? The Euro has been very weak and fell off a high of 1.3525, a resistance level that it should have been able to overcome if there had been any force behind its move. I wrote yesterday that ideally it would stay above 1.3450. That it hasn't done but it's also apparently unwilling to simply fall and support looks as though it's coming in here at the 1.34 level although the low so far is 1.3385. There is a confluence zone here that may help the pair rally. There's also positive divergence on the three-hour chart:

More serious support is at 1.3366 and then 1.3312/07, 1.3283 and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3447, 1.3525, 1.3585/91, and of course, the infamous 1.3692. Perhaps it's finally going to break out of the range I commented upon yesterday although I wouldn't be surprised if it tries to head up again.

I have several appointments today so I won't be doing a lot of updating on the pair but if it looks as though it's rallying, a long might be the way to go, expecially if RSI bounces up from overbought. If you're already short, you may want to tighten stops to above 1.3447 and add to the position if it breaks 1.33 or if it looks as though the downtrend is accelerating.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—update

I went long at 1.0636 and now have my stop somewhat better than breakeven and have taken partial profits at +46 pips. This is a tough resistance area so we'll have to see if it can get through it. If not, then I'd expect the scenario to unfold that I wrote about earlier—the pair may drop to the 1.0520 area where it's a better entry point.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—somewhat mixed

From its low of 1.5192 yesterday, the pair climbed to a high of 1.5434 earlier today before dropping back to 1.5336. That price was where it touched the short time uptrend line on the hourly chart and I took a long position at 1.5358. On the 15-minute chart it made a nice solid hammer so if price dips below that point it's a sign of weakness. I might consider reversing at that point. What I don't like about the chart is that on the hourly, the price action looks corrective possibly beginning leg C of an ABC correction.

Bottom line is that this is going to require USD weakness to get anywhere with this trade. While I have some price projections up to 1.6160 and beyond, I'm not sure that's going to happen anytime soon.

Resistance is at 1.5416/34, 1.5453, and 1.5523. Support is at 1.5336, 1.5291, and 1.5192.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—sluggish

I'm still long from 1.3431 with a stop now 10 pips above breakeven. The Euro reached a high of 1.3525 this morning before falling back. I took more partial profits at +70 pips.

Stumbling at this resistance level is not good news for the Euro. To maintain any hope of upward movement the pair needs to stay above 1.34 and ideally, 1.3450. Additional support is at 1.3366, 1.3283, and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3525, 1.3585/91, and of course, the infamous 1.3692.

Here's a chart I created that shows the main ups and downs for the Euro since November. You can see it's basically in a flat period and has been so since early March. Shorting the top of this range at 1.3692/1.3712 or buying at the bottom near 1.3267/83 may be the way to go right now until a definitive break takes place.













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—little movement

The pair has slowly drifted downward since I blogged yesterday but it seems to lack enthusiasm for reaching back down into the lower 1.05 range. This morning it formed a doji with a low of 1.0603. It needs to drop below that to lend credibility to it falling further. That's only 90 pips since the high yesterday of 1.0693 so you can see how slow the market is this morning. I'm still thinking there will be a drop back to the uptrend line which is at 1.0534 this morning. The 100-daily SMA, which has been serving as rough support recently, is right on it at 1.0527 today. That's a very attractive level for a long trade. If it does bounce from that doji then it will run into serious resistance in the 1.0661 to 1.0693 area. If it clears 1.0693 successfully, then a long might be in order at that level with tight stops. One can also go long now with the doji low serving as the stop at 1.0603 but it's riskier.

Support is at 1.0603, 1.0527/34, 1.0503 and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0661, 1.0693, 1.0764/88, 1.08, and 1.09. Here's the one-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—coiling

The pair hit a high of 1.0693 this morning but has since dropped back to a low, so far, of 1.0646. There's negative divergence on the hourly chart so weakness may continue. While price is currently above the resistance area of last week, the pair appears to be coiling and could drop back to the uptrend line at 1.0525. The 100-daily SMA, which has been serving as rough support recently is at 1.0520 today. Around those levels, then, I'd be ready to go long. If the pair continues to rise, resistance is at 1.0693, 1.0764/88, 1.08, and 1.09.

Here's the hourly chart.











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—update

I went long at 1.3431 but have already moved my stop to breakeven. I'm having many technical problems with my trading platform this morning so it seemed like the safe thing to do. I also just took some partial profits at +40 pips.

If the pair starts to stumble in this 1.3470/1.3500 area, it may be worth a short if you're not in the market. Otherwise, resistance is at 1.3513, 1.3585/91, and of course, the infamous 1.3692.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—hourly chart

Taking a look at the hourly chart, you can see positive divergence between RSI and price. That, combined with the attempt to base, makes a long look more attractive but if I do so, I'm keeping the stop above 1.34. That's very little risk but any quick move could take it out and then you need to decide whether to get back in again. The conservative trader will stand aside for now.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—trying to base

My long from 1.3308 profit-stopped out at 1.3501 in the current dip down for +193 pips.

The pair currently appears to be looking for some support in the 1.34 area but with the drop below some key moving averages the pair is looking weak. However, I'd wait for it to drop below 1.3320 before shorting and even then, I'd watch price and momentum carefully. As I wrote last week, the entire 1.34 area is strong support for this week with fibo, confluence, and polarity (prices that have served as both support and resistance). In addition, the uptrend line on the weekly chart from the secondary low last year is coming in just above 1.3420. If it cleanly closes below that area, selling makes sense with the idea that it could drop back to prior lows and continue on to the original price targets of 1.29 to 1.30 or perhaps somewhat lower. However, it's not entirely clearr the pair is out of a more complex correction that could still result in moving above the 1.3692 high of last week. If you look at the weekly chart, you see a pair that's trying like crazy to base (look at all the dojis).

So is it worth a long? Yes, you could do this with a tight stop but be aware of the risk here. There's lots of downward pressure on this pair and the fact that volcanic ash is disrupting air travel in Europe isn't helping as it feeds into some generalized fear factors.

Here's the weekly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Computer problems

I'm having some computer problems this morning so won't be trading until they're resolved