Tuesday, April 20, 2010

USDCHF—little movement

The pair has slowly drifted downward since I blogged yesterday but it seems to lack enthusiasm for reaching back down into the lower 1.05 range. This morning it formed a doji with a low of 1.0603. It needs to drop below that to lend credibility to it falling further. That's only 90 pips since the high yesterday of 1.0693 so you can see how slow the market is this morning. I'm still thinking there will be a drop back to the uptrend line which is at 1.0534 this morning. The 100-daily SMA, which has been serving as rough support recently, is right on it at 1.0527 today. That's a very attractive level for a long trade. If it does bounce from that doji then it will run into serious resistance in the 1.0661 to 1.0693 area. If it clears 1.0693 successfully, then a long might be in order at that level with tight stops. One can also go long now with the doji low serving as the stop at 1.0603 but it's riskier.

Support is at 1.0603, 1.0527/34, 1.0503 and 1.0435. Resistance is at 1.0661, 1.0693, 1.0764/88, 1.08, and 1.09. Here's the one-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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