GBPJPY—narrow broadening range

On the 15-minute chart you can see the Guppy is caught in a slight broadening top. I may try a short when it gets to the top of this one but I'm a little tired of the 20 pips here, 20 pips there movement.

Here's the 15-minute chart. Support and resistance is the same as in the prior post:















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—stalled again

Euro reached a high of 1.3407 this morning where it again appears to be stalling under some tough resistance—fib retracement level as well as confluence. It needs to decisively clear 1.3410 to give this rally some legs. Since the pullback so far is weak, it may be getting ready to do so. The tiny short I added at 1.3354 yesterday stopped out at breakeven. My short from 1.3533 is still in play and will be until threatened by the pair clearing 1.3410. It didn't happen yesterday but maybe it will do so today. I'd be happy to pocket the profits and wait for a better shorting level.

The question, I suppose, is why it's stalling. I am never much interested in why—it's far better to trade the charts and leave the fundamental traders to their time-killing, wasted efforts—but from a technical viewpoint it comes down to trader indecision. The problems of Greece, the downgrade of Portugal, the uncertainty in general, are all taking their toll. If you add the technical cycle pressures the Euro is under, it becomes easier to understand this inability to make a decisive move up.

Support is at 1.3325, 1.3267, 1.3209, 1.3200, 1.3127, 1.3092, 1.3000, and 1.2885. Resistance is at 1.3402/09, 1.3425, 1.3535, 1.3561, 1.3670, 1.3724, 1.3755 and 1.3818.

I'll post a chart when there is something new to note.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—battering at 138.14

Acting like one of those inflatable punching clown bags, GBPJPY looks again to be headed back to test yesterday's highs of 138.14. GBPJPY bulls tried repeatedly yesterday to push above there but ended up dropping down instead to 137.07. That drop might have provided the necessary energy. Its high so far (as of 8:07AM EST) is 137.89. If it does get through, it has additional resistance at 138.52/61 and strong resistance at 138.96.

Gann wrote that once a pair has tried three or four times at a level it will probably break through. If you count the repeated tries yesterday as one try then shorting would seem safe enough and you could set a tight stop. You'd need to be ready to reverse. It's going to require watching price and momentum carefully.

My last long at 137.44 profit stopped out yesterday at 137.60 for +16 pips.

Support is at 137.07, 136.92, 136.55, 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.93/78, and 132.03. Resistance is at 138.14, 138.52/61, 138.96 (strong), 139.58 (strong), 140.57, and 142.64.

Here's the three-hour chart












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—under pressure

Things look dire indeed for this pair's little rally. I did go long yesterday at 1.4825 because GBPUSD had dropped to its uptrend line from early 2009 and was also near the March 1st low of 1.4785. I just took some partial profits at +48 pips since it seems to be having trouble getting above 1.4886.

There is positive divergence on the three-hour chart and the pound has been pounded lately. Any kind of rally at all should be able to get it to a .382 retracement from the March 17th high of 1.5382 to the 1.4798 low but maybe not. In any case, I've moved my stop to slightly better than breakeven. If it can get up there, or even better 1.5090, then a short would most likely be the way to go. If it's going to drop further, it has quite a few layers of near term support to muddle through. However, if it clears below 1.4704, it could be headed for 1.4533 and 1.4397. You'd definitely want to be short before then.

Support is at 1.4829, 1.4798, 1.4785 (strong), 1.4772, 1.4754 (strong), 1.4704, 1.4533, 1.4437, and 1.4397. Resistance is at 1.4886, 1.4943/61, 1.4978, 1.5021, 1.5055/63, and 1.5090. If it somehow surpasses 1.5090 it would probably try for 1.5376/82 but let's stay grounded in the current reality.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—broke uptrend line again

AUDUSD broke its uptrend line from Feb. 5 for a second time today while it dropped to a low (so far) of .9043. This is below yesterday's low of .9066. There is still some bullish divergence on the three-hour chart but this doesn't look good. In addition, it's building up layers of resistance. Needless to say, I'm still short from .9185. at .8578.

Support is at .9043, .9020, .8985/73 (strong), .8929, .8871, .8801, .8788 (strong) and .8578. Resistance is at .9067 (strong), .9120/40, .9198, .9252, .9330, and .9406. I think there's probably zero probability we'll be seeing .9406 anytime soon but never say never.

Here's the three-hour chart. Notice RSI coiling.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—stalled

Euro reached a high of 1.3371, fell back, and recently made another high of 1.3366 from which it has staggered off again. I would say traders are indecisive, at best. If it can clear 1.3410, perhaps a more serious rally can take place but so far, no cigar. It's tempting to add to shorts here.

Support is at 1.3284, 1.3209, 1.3200, 1.3127, 1.3092, 1.3000, and 1.2885. Resistance is at 1.3360, 1.3402/09, 1.3425, 1.3535, 1.3561, 1.3670, 1.3724, 1.3755 and 1.3818. See the earlier post today for the chart.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—triangle

My two remaining longs stopped out at breakeven. I just added another one at 137.44. If you look at the 15-minute chart you see the pair is in a small triangle and I'm adding at the bottom. One could set a stop as tight as 137.30 but that's a little too tight for this pair. Still, much below there, I'd consider reversing. As I posted earlier, it's tough resistance for this pair up to 138.96.

Support is at 137.30, 137.97, 137.35, 136.92, 136.55, 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.93, and 132.03. Resistance is at 138.12, 138.52/61, 138.96 (strong), 139.58 (strong), 140.57, and 142.64.

Here's the 15-minute chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—dropping back

The pair breached its uptrend line from the March 19th 1.0061 low, after dropping from yesterday's high of 1.0282. However, the candles are throwing off lower shadows which hints that lower prices are being rejected. My long from 1.0115 is still on. I'd probably add to my longs at 1.0137/52 if it gets down there, depending on price and momentum action.

Support is at 1.0137/52, 1.0098, and 1.0061. Resistance is at 1.0268/82, 1.0322, and 1.0443.

Here's the one-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—fake break?

AUDUSD dropped to a low of .9066 today—this was a break of the uptrend line begin Feb. 5 at .8578—but the pair immediately bounced back above it which leads one to suspect the break was a fake and the pair may not go much lower. What's new? This pair just won't give up its uptrend even though it's looking weaker during this correction (if that's what it is). There's bullish divergence (which may be working itself out) on the three-hour chart.

However, if it continues to climb, it will bump its head on the top of its slightly expanding upward channel at .9249 which is also prior resistance. Frankly, I'd be stunned if it got there but, hey, who really knows about these things? All you can do is watch the charts.

I'm still short from .9185 which is profit-stopped.

Support is at .9066/63, .8979/90 (strong), .8914 (strong), .8801, .8784 (strong) and .8578. Resistance is at .9112, .9140, .9249, .9330, and .9406.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—high of 138.12

I added long positions at 137.43 and 137.45. I just closed the 137.43 one for +50 pips and the stops on the other two are at breakeven. Having made it to 138.12, the pair is battling tough resistance up to 138.96.

Support is at 137.97, 137.35, 136.92, 136.55, 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.93, and 132.03. Resistance is at 138.12, 138.52/61, 138.96 (strong), 139.58 (strong), 140.57, and 142.64.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—update

My long from 137.50 stopped out at breakeven in the retreat back to 137.38. Smile, right? I just took another long but note, that's a lower low than the low earlier this morning so it may be turning down again.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD--bounce

Euro's overnight low was 1.3284, a level from which it has nicely bounced. It is now back up to what was former support in the 1.3360 area. 1.3402 will be the 50% retracement level from the 1.3569 high to 1.3284 so it's in an area where one can expect stalling before a clear direction emerges. There is some bullish divergence beginning to form on the three-hour chart. What would be ideal is a healthy rally, perhaps to 1.3425/1.3500 along with an overbought condition on the hourly chart. If it started to stumble and fall out of overbought, it could be a nice short since price targets from cycle and other analysis haven't yet been met.

Yesterday afternoon, I took profits on what was left from my short at 1.3686 at +365 pips. I still have a short on from 1.3533 and that will stay in play as long as the above mentioned 50% retracement caps any rallies.

Support is at 1.3284, 1.3209, 1.3200, 1.3127, 1.3092, 1.3000, and 1.2885. Resistance is at 1.3360, 1.3402/09, 1.3425, 1.3535, 1.3561, 1.3670, 1.3724, 1.3755 and 1.3818.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—rallying

My long from 135.98 profit stopped out on the dip to 136.50 for +52 pips. It only stayed there about one second, of course, before it resumed its climb but I didn't get back in yesterday because I didn't see a clear short or long by the time I stopped trading.

This morning, though, it reached a high of 137.97. It then, a few moments ago, retreated slightly to 137.47. I took another long position at 137.50. If you look at a daily chart you can see it looks as though it may be heading for the top of a channel.

If it makes it there (139.58), then it's a good level to try a short because not only will the pair meet the channel line but it will also encounter polarity. However, I doubt this is going to be a smooth ride up. It is already encountering resistance from the 34 daily EMA and 138.19 and various fib confluence levels. There is more resistance at 138.61 and especially 138.96.

Some people say this pair, fondly known as the Guppy, is equivalent to Mr. Toad's Wild Ride. Maybe, but the key to trading it seems to be to stay flexible. Don't get wedded to a mindset. Go where it takes you. This is why you want to keep stops tight, take your small losses (if necessary) with a smile, and be willing to reverse.

Support is at 137.25/14, 136.92, 136.55, 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.93, and 132.03. Resistance is at 137.97/138.00, 138.52/61, 138.96 (strong), 139.58 (strong), 140.57, and 142.64 .

Here's the daily chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—update

AUDUSD has dropped to a low of .9097, touching an uptrend line on the three-hour chart drawn from Feb. 5th. As a result, I took some partial profits at +70 pips.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—broke through resistance

My short from 135.81 stopped out at breakeven and the pair has been in an uptrend since then. I tried a small long at 135.98 which has risen to a high of 137.14 this morning where it seems to be battling a very short-term resistance at the downtrend line coming in from March 17. I took some partial profits at 136.70 for +72 pips. To be honest, I didn't think it would make it through the relatively tough resistance at 136.92. Now, though, it's at an even tougher point as it tries to approach 137.50. If it can make it through here and stay above 136.92, I may add to my long position. If not, I'll probably reverse.

Support is at 136.92, 136.55, 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.93, and 132.03. Resistance is at 137.14, 137.50, 138.52, and 139.37.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—trying to break out

This pair has been a bit meandering the last couple of days. Yesterday was technically an inside day (where high and low is contained in the price range of the prior day) and this can hint at indecision.
I am still in my long from last Friday when I entered at 1.0115.

USDCAD is currently trying to break up from a small triangle. It has reached a high of 1.0236 and is back at the breakout point of 1.0218. Let's see how it does.

Resistance is at 1.0243, 1.0322, and 1.0443. Support is at 1.0191, 1.0152/44 and 1.0098.

Here's the three-hour chart:















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

More bad news for Euro

They say a pair that doesn't fall on bad news isn't bearish. This isn't true at all for Euro as it touched a new low of 1.3346 this morning. The press is reporting it's because of a downgrade on Portugal to AA from the Fitch rating service. Yes, right. Unreported is the fact that technical analysis has been showing this pair's weakness since this past October when it was still climbing.

I think we'll see a slight bounce in Euro now that 1.3350 has broken.

AUDUSD—paralyzed

This pair appears to not have a clue as to what to do. For Thursday, Friday, and Monday AUDUSD had lower highs and lower lows. Yesterday, it managed to not go to a lower low. It also managed to pull off a higher high. This higher high was at .9198, a whopping 11 pips higher than Monday's high. The last four days comes after tepid, sideways movement since March 7. The pair looks congested at best and may be setting up for a correction. I shorted at .9185 with the stop being just better than breakeven.

You can see on the daily chart below that the pair looks as though it's weakening a bit with its inability to make a major new high. However it needs to break down below .9080 to suggest it can drop further.

Support is at .9080, .8979/90 (strong), .8914 (strong), .8801, and .8578. Resistance is at .9252, .9330, and .9406.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—testing new lows

Euro finally started to move downward. The buying that came in around 1.35 yesterday wasn't enough to stop its slide nor to create a very strong rally. The little rally did take out my short from 1.3550 at breakeven but I added another short at 1.3533. My short from 1.3686 is also still on although I just took most of it off the table for +250 pips.

So far this morning the pair has hit a low of 1.3365. Breaking below the psychological 1.34 is not great news to, well, I was going to say to Euro bulls, but are there any left? Although that reminds me that once everyone has sold who can sell, who is left to sell? Regardless, there's still lots of negative sentiment left and sellers will probably be found at least until down to 1.30. A close below 1.34 today would be damaging. Don't expect a straight down fall—rallies, even if small, will present themselves. There's some positive divergence shaping up on the shorter-term charts. Continue to sell those rallies for now. As I wrote yesterday, price targets from various calculations are coming in at the 1.27 to 1.30 price levels.

Support is at 1.3360, 1.3300, 1.3263, 1.3209, 1.3200, 1.3127, 1.3092, 1.3000, and 1.2885. Resistance is at 1.3406, 1.3435/50, 1.3561, 1.3486, 1.3561 1.3590, 1.3661, 1.3724 and 1.3818.

Here’s the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Sluggish market

The pairs are really sluggish this morning. The "excuses" include traders waiting until the EU summit on Thursday and Friday. This is just the way it is sometimes. When the pairs are ready to move they'll move.

EURCHF—is you is or is you ain't...

The Swiss National Bank, after a few interventions last year, has let the franc appreciate against the Euro such that EURCHF dropped to 1.4309 yesterday. SNB keeps making noise—"the means at our disposal are clear: we buy foreign currency and the scope of such measures can be huge," and "we won't allow deflation risks to reemerge," according to SNB President Philipp Hildebrand." I can't help, though, but think about the song lyrics that go, " Is you is or is you ain't my baby? The way you're actin' lately makes me doubt." Of course, the most cursory examination of the long term monthly chart of EURCHF (and GBPCHF and USDCHF) shows the price going down, down, down. So will the SNB intervene? One wonders. EURCHF hit a low of 1.4316 this morning.

Here's the monthly chart going back 30 years. Is that a trend?











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—sluggish

I still have a short on from 1.3686 and I entered another short position yesterday at 1.3550 when the pair reached the strong resistance zone I included in my blog post. I've moved my stop to breakeven on the latter one.

With all the negative sentiment over Euro (they need to decisively address the Greece problem), the pair probably won't be able to get very high today. Yesterday's high was 1.3569. If it should climb and take out my breakeven stop, I'll look for another short entry. A climb back to 1.3724, would be an excellent shorting level but I doubt it will happen. Price targets from various calculations are coming in at the 1.27 to 1.30 price levels. It won't happen tomorrow or perhaps not even this week but those are juicy targets.

Support is at 1.3508, 1.3456/64, 1.3435, 1.3405, 1.3263, 1.3209, and 1.3000. Resistance is at 1.3569, 1.3610, 1.3623/33, 1.3674 and 1.3724.

Here’s the hourly chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—weak and somewhat directionless

My remaining short from 137.96 profit-stopped out at 136.26 for +170 pips.

I just shorted again at 135.81. I would have preferred to have shorted somewhat higher but I missed the high last evening (EST) of 136.55.

The reasons I shorted are that the pair is in an overall downtrend, I was far enough above the longer term uptrend support line to make a reasonable profit even if it wasn't penetrated, and there's a slight broadening pattern on the hourly chart that suggests to me lower prices may be in store. In addition, momentum doesn't appear to be supportive of higher prices.

If you consider that the upward channel on the daily chart could be construed as a bear flag, a price target can be calculated at 129.05. It may not make it but this isn't out of range with other price targets I've calculated for this pair since late 2009. However, it must break 134.30/53 for this to be viable. It's not a sure thing it will do this. For one thing, there are hammers forming on the hourly chart, signaling that the pair may be trying to "hammer" out a bottom. In general, though, the pair is somewhat directionless right now. It will find its way eventually.

Resistance is at 136.55, 136.92 (strong), 137.50 and 138.42. Support is at 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.93 and 132.03.

Here's the one-hour chart.














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—update

My short position from .9240 profit stopped out at .9182 for +58 pips as the pair reached a high of .9184. It has stalled in this resistance zone. If it gets through here it will encounter additional resistance at .9230, .9252, .9330, and .9406. Support is at .9159, .9096/85, .9054, .9001, .8888. I intend to short rallies, especially if the pair can get
to .9230/52.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—drop below short-term uptrend line

This pair just dropped to a low of 134.72, suggesting that it's going to be difficult for any kind of serious rally to take place. I just took partial profits on my short from 137.96 at +309 pips. Shorting rallies is the best approach, especially since the weekly chart shows the long term uptrend line coming in at 134.30. However a clean break below that line would hint much lower lows are in store. Keep the weekly chart in mind while trading shorter time frames.

Resistance is in narrow increments at 1.3562, 1.3596, 136.20, 136.50, 137.00, 137.50 and 137.95. Support is at 134.30, 133.93 and 132.03.

Here's the weekly chart. My short doesn't show on this chart because I use a different charting package for longer-term charts.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—sitting on support

Euro is sitting on support with a low of 1.3499 so far today. The fact that it has slowed shows some buying has come in at the psychological level of 1.35. Fine. Let it. With bullish divergence on the hourly chart, it might stage a rally. However, it's doubtful that rally will be very robust with all the negative sentiment around the Euro. In addition, cycle calculations as well as other price target calculations are coming in at the 1.27 to 1.30 price levels.

My short from 1.3686 is still on, of course and I will add additional short positions on any rallies as long as the price action doesn't indicate a change in trend.

Support is at 1.3499, 1.3435, 1.3405, 1.3263, 1.3209, and 130.00. Resistance is at 1.3538, 1.3557/62 (strong), 1.3610, 1.3623/33, and 1.3674.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—rally

Following the positive divergence on the hourly chart on Friday, the pair has managed a rally which so far has only reached a high of 1.5013. The pair has also formed what's known as an ascending triangle from which a breakout is usually upward. However, GBPUSD is generally weak. My short from Friday at 1.5153 is still on and is profit stopped at 1.5052.

If this rally can get any legs, one would expect to see the pair break 1.5052 in a sassy, confident fashion. I'm a bit skeptical but will follow the market and reverse, if need be, at that point.

Resistance is at 1.5013, 1.5033, 1.5120, 1.5153 (strong), 1.5254, 1.5328, and 1.5382. Support is at 1.4964, 1.4932, 1.4873, 1.4853 (strong), 1.4873 and 1.4814.

Here's the one-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—rallying

USDCAD may have hit a bottom last week at 1.0061. I took a long position on Friday at 1.0115 and so far, so good. There's still a lot of sentiment against the USD vis-à-vis the Loonie but I'm stopped better than breakeven at this point. It did almost take me out before rallying because I had identified support at 1.0060 and my stop was just below that.

Friday showed what is known as a key day reversal bar. This is when the low was lower than the prior day's low but the close was higher than the prior day's close. In the case of USDCAD, the low on Friday was 1.0061 compared to Thursday's low of 1.0090 and Friday's close was 1.0173 compared to Thursday's close of 1.0163. While I found that encouraging, I had already bought at that point. My reasons for doing so were the strength of the nearby support and some patterns on the shorter time frame charts.

In any case, this pair is not out of the woods by any means. Support is at 1.0155, 1.0116, 1.0090, and 1.0071/61. Resistance is at 1.0186/89 (strong), 1.0232, 1.0322, and 1.0443.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—weak

AUDUSD is weak this morning going into my trading day but currently the pair isn't much lower than it was on Friday when I took partial profits. My short position at .9240 is still on with a profit stop in place.

Its low so far has been .9106 and its stalling which makes sense given the support levels that are in place. I'd expect tough support down to .9054. A break below that would be fairly clear until .9001 where the pair would again run into strong support. The market appears somewhat risk averse this morning so further drops might happen. Continuing to short on rallies seems to be the way to go but a confident close above .9180 would, of course, change things to a less bearish outlook.

This pair is still in an overall uptrend from late 2008 lows. That won't change until it breaks .7164 but there's a lot of ground between here and there and profits are possible.

Support is at .9106, .9096, .9076, .9054, .9001, .8888,.8760, and .8451. Resistance is at .9137, 9156/70, .9230, .9252, .9330, and .9406.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.