This pair came into the week with mixed signals—evidence was there for longs as I wrote earlier in the week but there was also a confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the charts. The drop looked like that could be the overriding factor but the pair hasn't been able to move lower than .8455, a fib level and price support. Now it has climbed back to the bottom of the downward channel on the daily chart where it will either fail for sure or lumber back in and head up from its bear trap. On the weekly chart (not shown), it's hard to say the wave structure looks anything but corrective with wave C over. Should be an interesting week next week.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, November 12, 2010
GBPUSD—1.5950 key
I've not posted about Cable this week. As I've mentioned before I can't post about everything I watch and trade because I'd have no time to trade. However, staying above 1.5950 is key right now and it's something I'm watching closely. If it does, it leaves my daily bull flag price projection I wrote about here a couple of weeks ago, intact. However, below that level, I'd start to give more weight to my Elliott Wave counts which show a more bearish picture.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—"bears" watching
While I'm still long from .9634 which has been hovering around 100 pips profit this morning, it's difficult to ignore that on the daily chart this has the look of a three-wave correction with wave c in progress. That would mean higher prices but the .618 of the move down from 9972 is at .9809 which is just above the short-term downtrend line so that may provide resistance. Then again, five wave moves begin with three wave moves. Unless there's a definitive move below .9548, I sense there is more room for price to move up in this pair. But my weekend analysis will give me a better picture. More Monday.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—continues lower
Euro moved down to 1.3574 before bouncing to 1.3727. The move down most likely completed an impulsive wave on the shorter-term charts so this rally is probably corrective. The bounce could take price to 1.3836/42, 1.3894 or 1.3905 before turning down again so, to the extent I trade today, I'll be looking for momentum weakness on the short-term charts and shorting any rally. I believe the pair will see 1.3335 again in the next few days.
On the weekly chart (not shown) the week is ending with a bearish candle after four weeks of indecisive candles. So unless we have a sizable rally today (not likely), the close is likely to be bearish (below 1.3820) and next week will begin with the bears in control.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the weekly chart (not shown) the week is ending with a bearish candle after four weeks of indecisive candles. So unless we have a sizable rally today (not likely), the close is likely to be bearish (below 1.3820) and next week will begin with the bears in control.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
EURUSD—weak
The latest low is 1.3686. This is below the Oct. 19th 1.3698 low. Looking at the hourly chart one could trace five waves down to that low with current action being an abc correction. The highest probability, in my view, is that the pair might manage to retrace to 1.3836. Here wave c would equal a and Euro will run into resistance from prior prices and a trend line. If it closes above that, the next resistance is at 1.3894, 1.3926, and 1.4086.
If this is an abc correction, then look for the next wave to be a third wave (on this short-term chart) within an overall larger third wave that began with the 1.4282 high. Price will likely reach the 1.3335 area, the former resistance as well as a fibo.
Care and tight stops are mandatory. This is a strange market—all that QE easing in but no real movement in equities or in currencies. Lots of small ranges in the currencies. Better trades are coming but for me, I'm going to short any rally in Euro.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If this is an abc correction, then look for the next wave to be a third wave (on this short-term chart) within an overall larger third wave that began with the 1.4282 high. Price will likely reach the 1.3335 area, the former resistance as well as a fibo.
Care and tight stops are mandatory. This is a strange market—all that QE easing in but no real movement in equities or in currencies. Lots of small ranges in the currencies. Better trades are coming but for me, I'm going to short any rally in Euro.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—meandering
I still have one long from .9634 and my other long from .9717 stopped at breakeven as this pair meanders in a narrow range from .9677 to .9768. Meandering does not bode well for good gains in either direction as it represents uncertainty and indecision. The cheery side of this is that it won't stay this way forever or even for very long. Eventually some movement will take place.
For a bullish outlook, I'd like to see the pair close above .9842/57 and then vigorously move above that price. On the three-hour chart that would put it above the triangle top line at .9842 and above a wave C equal to .618A at .9857. Then it would be in a position to move to the top of the channel at .9992 and then to 1.0057 where wave C equaled A. Above 1.0057, of course, would hint at a return to 1.0332 where it would run into horrendous resistance (look back on the daily chart (not shown) to the July/August timeframe to see this congestion zone). Bolstering a positive view is my daily point and figure chart which has a price target of 1.0600, almost at the top of that resistance zone. However I'd expect a lot of chop in the 9972/9463 range in the near-term. Chop can eat you up so if you can't take the risk of setting a stop below .9463 then it's best to stay out of this market for now.
A bearish outlook would prefer a drop below .9590, then .9500 for a strong move towards .9463 and beyond. On a three-hour chart, one can see that RSI has dropped just below its uptrend line. If price follows by dropping below .9619, that's a hint things will drop further. One can make a credible argument for things moving below .9463 to .9000 but I'll hold off for now. The chop I wrote about above would most likely still happen for the near term so sellers need to take that into consideration.
Best choice may be to sit this one out for a bit. My long is profitable so that can stay for now.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
For a bullish outlook, I'd like to see the pair close above .9842/57 and then vigorously move above that price. On the three-hour chart that would put it above the triangle top line at .9842 and above a wave C equal to .618A at .9857. Then it would be in a position to move to the top of the channel at .9992 and then to 1.0057 where wave C equaled A. Above 1.0057, of course, would hint at a return to 1.0332 where it would run into horrendous resistance (look back on the daily chart (not shown) to the July/August timeframe to see this congestion zone). Bolstering a positive view is my daily point and figure chart which has a price target of 1.0600, almost at the top of that resistance zone. However I'd expect a lot of chop in the 9972/9463 range in the near-term. Chop can eat you up so if you can't take the risk of setting a stop below .9463 then it's best to stay out of this market for now.
A bearish outlook would prefer a drop below .9590, then .9500 for a strong move towards .9463 and beyond. On a three-hour chart, one can see that RSI has dropped just below its uptrend line. If price follows by dropping below .9619, that's a hint things will drop further. One can make a credible argument for things moving below .9463 to .9000 but I'll hold off for now. The chop I wrote about above would most likely still happen for the near term so sellers need to take that into consideration.
Best choice may be to sit this one out for a bit. My long is profitable so that can stay for now.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—dropping
The pair broke below .8525 to reach a low of .8501 this morning (so far). My long from .8529 stopped out at -10 pips. Ten pips might seem to some a too tight stop but the pair should have based in here at least according to every approach I use to trading. So I was OK with it. I wrote yesterday that if the pair broke much below .8525/00, " I'll probably stop and reverse, looking for additional moves down." Hovering right at .8501 for now doesn't quite cut it but I'm watching it. This is a serious breach of support (see yesterday's first blog on this pair for why) and if the pair doesn't rally quickly then I'd say the bears have control. I'd then trade according to the confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart that I wrote about yesterday. Below .8500 support is at .8449, .8403, .8355, and .8300. Potentially one could see a drop back to .8068 and below.
No chart until the pair makes a definitive move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
No chart until the pair makes a definitive move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
EURGBP—update
While I believe in my early morning analysis and went long at .8529, performance so far is less than stellar. The pair is being weighed down by Euro in general and by the move up of Cable. The hourly chart shows that for the last three hours EURGBP is hammering out a base. If this base fails, that is if there is a break much below .8525/00, I'll probably stop and reverse, looking for additional moves down.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—ready to rumble?
Maybe. The much despised USD, hammered on all sides by critics and an administration policy designed to push it down, down, down, seems to be in a rumbling mood this morning. It hit a high of .9752 early this morning, dropped to .9677 (.382 retracement) and started up again, seemingly ready to attempt to regain .9824 and then last week's outside candle high of .9974 . A failure at .9800 will not be good and I'd probably close or at considerably lighten up my longs. I'm long with two positions, one from .9634 and one from .9717.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—correction
My long at 1.0089 stopped at +10 as AUDUSD corrects. Price has broken below 1.0003 the old high that might have served as support and have touched a low of .9982 today. This doesn't mean catastrophe for this pair is at hand—it could find support at .9972 which would be .618 if the A wave if one assumes this is an ABC correction that began Oct. 15th. Equality would take it to a low of .9841 and 1.618 that of A would be .9630. The .9630 looks attractive since it's near .382 of the move from .8770 to 1.0183 and the 10/27 low.
If the pair can quickly regain 1.0003 (not just a touch and retreat), then I'll buy; otherwise I'm looking for a short entry.
Here's the three-hour chart on which things look a bit dicey:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If the pair can quickly regain 1.0003 (not just a touch and retreat), then I'll buy; otherwise I'm looking for a short entry.
Here's the three-hour chart on which things look a bit dicey:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—bulls in retreat
A new low of 1.3735. My oh my and I imagine that those who bought the breakout at 1.4159 have largely given up or will be soon if this plunge continues.
On the three-hour chart a hammer formed yesterday at this low and it needs to hold if there's any chance of overtaking the high of 1.4282 that looks to some as though it was a bull trap. There's reason to believe it could rally. For example, on the three-hour chart, momentum (as represented by RSI) is skittering along the oversold line at 28 to 30. Of course this failure to plunge definitively below could be the stubbornness of those Euro bulls. There are some who will never give up. However, these lows held on Oct. 27th and a low just below at 1.3698 held on Oct. 19th.
One could risk a small long here with the stop below 1.3698 or down to 1.3627 depending on your risk tolerance. I think the latter a bit steep because if price goes below 1.3698, one could reasonably expect a revisit of 1.3335. If the pair does rally, 1.4070 is a good target to at least significantly tighten stops and take some profit. (see yesterday's blog). However longs need to be cautious. You can see on the three-hour chart how this could be construed as the formation of a 5-wave decline which would be bearish for the pair.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the three-hour chart a hammer formed yesterday at this low and it needs to hold if there's any chance of overtaking the high of 1.4282 that looks to some as though it was a bull trap. There's reason to believe it could rally. For example, on the three-hour chart, momentum (as represented by RSI) is skittering along the oversold line at 28 to 30. Of course this failure to plunge definitively below could be the stubbornness of those Euro bulls. There are some who will never give up. However, these lows held on Oct. 27th and a low just below at 1.3698 held on Oct. 19th.
One could risk a small long here with the stop below 1.3698 or down to 1.3627 depending on your risk tolerance. I think the latter a bit steep because if price goes below 1.3698, one could reasonably expect a revisit of 1.3335. If the pair does rally, 1.4070 is a good target to at least significantly tighten stops and take some profit. (see yesterday's blog). However longs need to be cautious. You can see on the three-hour chart how this could be construed as the formation of a 5-wave decline which would be bearish for the pair.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—fish or cut bait
It's getting very close to the point where this pair needs to fish or cut bait if one is to believe the major trend is up in this pair. Here's why. The price has dropped from a high of .8945 to a low so far this morning of .8551. The 50% retracement point of the move from .8143 to .8945 is .8544; If this is leg C of a three-wave correction, C equals A at .8526; the bottom line of the corrective channel on the daily chart is at .8541. In addition, .8531 was key resistance that the pair broke above in September. So there's four pieces of information that the pair is reaching a strong support area and I intend to buy. If it does provide support and the pair rallies then the potential is for .8735 (top of corrective channel and fib confluence), .8821 (prior high) and then another attempt at .8945. Favoring buying, one can see positive divergence on the shorter-term charts (3- and 1-hour).
These are probabilities for the upside if support holds. What if it doesn't? .8506/00 is the next support (round number and 50% of .8068 to .8945 move). Then there's .9449, .8403, .8355, and .8300. Potentially one could see a drop back to .8068 and below. An argument can be made for .8355 if you assume that a Head and Shoulder pattern has formed with .8652 as the confirmation point. I've marked the head and should in red. If this is true then it would lend credence to the idea that even if this is leg C of a three-wave correction, C could be 1.618 that of A for a price of .8182.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
These are probabilities for the upside if support holds. What if it doesn't? .8506/00 is the next support (round number and 50% of .8068 to .8945 move). Then there's .9449, .8403, .8355, and .8300. Potentially one could see a drop back to .8068 and below. An argument can be made for .8355 if you assume that a Head and Shoulder pattern has formed with .8652 as the confirmation point. I've marked the head and should in red. If this is true then it would lend credence to the idea that even if this is leg C of a three-wave correction, C could be 1.618 that of A for a price of .8182.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
EURJPY—hammer on hourly
The remainder of my long from 112 profit-stopped out for +50 pips during the correction that began last Friday morning. The correction brought price down to a low of 111.72 as of this morning where price formed a hammer on the hourly chart. This retraced all of last week's upward move and it also meant price dipped back into the daily corrective channel or bull flag. While mindful of behavior around the red channel line on the chart below, I'm looking to enter a long near here since the stop can be tight and I'd expect to see a move up to 114. However, should price continue dropping and close below 111.50, it signals further moves down are likely. A stop and reverse would be the way to go.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—rally
I bought near the channel line I wrote about yesterday at 1.0089 and have moved my stop to a bit better than breakeven. You can see on the three-hour chart below that it not only rallied from that channel line but also has broken above a corrective channel to a high, as of 8:00 AM EST, of 1.0173. It's possible the pair is going to retest that channel at 1.0135 or so. If the pair doesn't fall apart, i.e. collapse back into the channel and below, potential targets are 1.0333 (7/82 high) and 1.0435 (4/82 low). Support is in the 1.0003 area. Closes below that would signal a deeper correction is in store.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—two sides of the argument
My long Euro trade stopped at break even. The pair dropped to 1.3824 from which it has now rallied to 1.3971 so far this morning.
The question is whether this is the beginning of a trend reversal (and certainly there are those in the Elliot Wave (EW) camp who keep beating this drum as well as others who are basically perma-bears as far as the Euro) or is this a small correction from which a larger rally can take place? Nobody, but nobody has the absolute answer to that question but one can hypothesize.
Looking at weakness first, one has to have the underlying assumption that the move up from the June lows is part of an overall corrective move in which the general trend of the Euro is down. Under this scenario, one can build a case for wave C of that correction to be in progress or near its end. Remember that wave C could extend as high as 1.618 that of A (1.4998). If you look at a three-year daily chart, you can make an EW count work if you assume that this is a correction within an overriding wave three. It can't be wave four because it would have entered the territory of wave one which is an inviolate rule. So it's best to see it as an unfolding wave three and going through a corrective phase within that wave. I've labeled the daily chart below so 2 circle of three is in progress. Do I believe this? Who cares what I believe? This is a way of looking at a chart.
If, however, I hold this theory, then I will be looking to short at some point. My suspicion is the pair can still get to the 1.45 area. As I've frequently written, 1.4450 is .618 of the move down from 1.6041, the downtrend line from the 1.6041 high comes in around 1.4500, and the high this past January was 1.4579. This would still leave some room for pips if one bought but then you run into the issue of whether a long position ties in with your risk strategy. (You do have a risk strategy, right? Something other than you'll stay in until you can't stand the losses any longer?)
Since one can draw a corrective channel on the daily chart, my inclination is to try a short at the top of that channel (around 1.4070) and have a tight stop. This is most likely the path I will follow unless I begin to see real strength or weakness (in the form of momentum) before that. Even with strength, however, it's possible to buy on a breakout of the channel (or better, a break and a retest). So 1.4070 seems like a figure to keep in mind. On a one-hour chart (not shown) one can trace out a five-wave declining pattern within a corrective channel that would put a sell point closer to 1.3900. These are choices traders have to make.
On the long side, I have a point and figure chart that shows a forming pattern named a catapult. I don't have time to go into this here but it's basically a buy signal, a correction that doesn't generate a sell signal, and then a breakout higher than the prior one. If I subscribe to this theory I can find some support for it in other methods I use. In that case, I'd buy now and take the ride up to potentially 1.50. However, one could still buy around 1.4070 (or 1.39) and have a nice trade.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The question is whether this is the beginning of a trend reversal (and certainly there are those in the Elliot Wave (EW) camp who keep beating this drum as well as others who are basically perma-bears as far as the Euro) or is this a small correction from which a larger rally can take place? Nobody, but nobody has the absolute answer to that question but one can hypothesize.
Looking at weakness first, one has to have the underlying assumption that the move up from the June lows is part of an overall corrective move in which the general trend of the Euro is down. Under this scenario, one can build a case for wave C of that correction to be in progress or near its end. Remember that wave C could extend as high as 1.618 that of A (1.4998). If you look at a three-year daily chart, you can make an EW count work if you assume that this is a correction within an overriding wave three. It can't be wave four because it would have entered the territory of wave one which is an inviolate rule. So it's best to see it as an unfolding wave three and going through a corrective phase within that wave. I've labeled the daily chart below so 2 circle of three is in progress. Do I believe this? Who cares what I believe? This is a way of looking at a chart.
If, however, I hold this theory, then I will be looking to short at some point. My suspicion is the pair can still get to the 1.45 area. As I've frequently written, 1.4450 is .618 of the move down from 1.6041, the downtrend line from the 1.6041 high comes in around 1.4500, and the high this past January was 1.4579. This would still leave some room for pips if one bought but then you run into the issue of whether a long position ties in with your risk strategy. (You do have a risk strategy, right? Something other than you'll stay in until you can't stand the losses any longer?)
Since one can draw a corrective channel on the daily chart, my inclination is to try a short at the top of that channel (around 1.4070) and have a tight stop. This is most likely the path I will follow unless I begin to see real strength or weakness (in the form of momentum) before that. Even with strength, however, it's possible to buy on a breakout of the channel (or better, a break and a retest). So 1.4070 seems like a figure to keep in mind. On a one-hour chart (not shown) one can trace out a five-wave declining pattern within a corrective channel that would put a sell point closer to 1.3900. These are choices traders have to make.
On the long side, I have a point and figure chart that shows a forming pattern named a catapult. I don't have time to go into this here but it's basically a buy signal, a correction that doesn't generate a sell signal, and then a breakout higher than the prior one. If I subscribe to this theory I can find some support for it in other methods I use. In that case, I'd buy now and take the ride up to potentially 1.50. However, one could still buy around 1.4070 (or 1.39) and have a nice trade.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, November 8, 2010
EURUSD—at resistance
Euro has rallied from the 1.3888 low and is now near the day's highs at 1.3949 (as of 1:25 PM EST). It has failed here twice today. In addition, those who went long at higher prices may be looking for an excuse to get out so expect some problems getting above this level. I have a long from 1.3906 but I've already moved my stop to breakeven.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—retest of channel line
On the daily chart AUDUSD has returned to the channel line it broke above last Thursday, currently 1.0079. So one could try a buy here or somewhat below at 1.0041 (Thursday's low). Risk reward is good with a tight stop (just below 1.0003, the prior swing high) and potential up to 1.0333 (7/82 high and 1.0435 (4/82 low). The pair could be just working out the negative divergence on the daily chart with a correction. However, consistent closes on an hourly basis lower within the channel, especially below 1.0003, would signal a deeper correction is in store. I'd be ready to short at that point.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—trying to rally
Euro fell to a low of 1.3892 this morning, taking out the remainder of my long position on the way for +100 pips. It's trying a rally from here which is almost right on the .618 retracement of the move from 1.5144 down to 1.1877. This is also the area of where an extended top line of the former daily triangle top line would be as well as fib confluence—in other words, it should provide support.
Looking at the weekly chart, one can see that the last few candles have been less than bullish with their upper shadows and fairly small bodies. However it's within a channel and so far it's higher lows. Below 1.3790 would signal trouble and suggest further moves down can be expected, perhaps to 1.3698, 1.3665, 1.3560, 1.3500 and the former resistance level of 1.3335. We'll have to wait and see but my money is on a rally, at least in the near-term and on the shorter-term charts. However any longs would want a tight stop below this morning's low. A move down to 1.3790 would suggest going long since the risk would be contained by a tight stop.
Here's the weekly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Looking at the weekly chart, one can see that the last few candles have been less than bullish with their upper shadows and fairly small bodies. However it's within a channel and so far it's higher lows. Below 1.3790 would signal trouble and suggest further moves down can be expected, perhaps to 1.3698, 1.3665, 1.3560, 1.3500 and the former resistance level of 1.3335. We'll have to wait and see but my money is on a rally, at least in the near-term and on the shorter-term charts. However any longs would want a tight stop below this morning's low. A move down to 1.3790 would suggest going long since the risk would be contained by a tight stop.
Here's the weekly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—Monthly
The last two months have both resulted in doji candles within a corrective channel. Last week's high .8818 was lower than the prior week's high of .8941 but a slightly higher low of .8652 makes for an inside week. Indecision and what else is new? One could short with a stop above the channel trend line or above .8941 and look for a drop to the bottom of the channel (quite a ride) or buy a breakout of the channel line.
Most likely, if I trade this pair at all this week, I'll trade off the daily chart. That chart has what looks like a sharp correction forming (could be a bull flag) and price is currently dropping within the corrective channel. One could go long at 8575/60 with a stop below prior resistance of .8531. There's a cluster of support up from .8531 which includes fib levels, daily SMAs and weekly and monthly EMAs. A break of that would target the 84's and possibly signal a move down to the bottom of the corrective channel on the monthly chart. So one would reverse.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Most likely, if I trade this pair at all this week, I'll trade off the daily chart. That chart has what looks like a sharp correction forming (could be a bull flag) and price is currently dropping within the corrective channel. One could go long at 8575/60 with a stop below prior resistance of .8531. There's a cluster of support up from .8531 which includes fib levels, daily SMAs and weekly and monthly EMAs. A break of that would target the 84's and possibly signal a move down to the bottom of the corrective channel on the monthly chart. So one would reverse.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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