Friday, May 14, 2010

GBPUSD--grim

Things look grim for cable as well as the Euro. It reached a low of 1.4497 this morning although it looks as though it's trying to find some footing. If it closes today below 1.4800, the pair may be headed back to 1.3500. However, in a fit of optimism (well that plus positive divergence on the hourly chart and the fact that support is near enough to have a tight stop, I went long at 1.4572. Resistance is at 1.4640, 1.4703, and 1.4851. Certainly if it go back to 1.5053, they'd be out singing.

EURUSD--funny analysis

In one of the funniest things I've heard recently, someone wrote that if the Euro continues to fall they might have to admit there is going to be a prolonged bear phase. Do you think so? These people get paid for this type of analysis?

EURCHF--update

EURCHF has gone nowhere since I blogged about it yesterday. I tried a long at 1.4008 and that's just about where it's sitting 24 hours later. We now all know that the French Finance Minister wasn't up for the attack on the Euro (see quote from earlier this week) so now the question is has the Swiss National Bank thrown in the towel as well and given up on intervention? No doubt, we'll get an answer soon.

EURUSD--where have all the flowers, I mean bulls, gone?

Euro has continued to fall in what has to be one of its worst weeks ever. The low so far this morning is 1.2432. There was a support level at 1.2456. The pair has managed to climb to 1.2486 but it doesn't look at all certain that this is going to hold. I've closed out most of my position this morning at +506 pips. I can always get back in if it ever rallies or just jump on the falling elevator if it continues to fall.

Next support is 1.2329. However, remember that 1.25 has served as a magnet line in past years and is likely to do so again. In addition, it's not going to fall straight down so a rally is coming. Even for those who believe that it will go to parity (and I think it's possible) it won't happen next week. Resistance is at 1.2574, 1.2684, 1.2739/60, 1.2803, 1.2880, 1.2963 and up but it's not likely we'll see those levels today anyway.

No chart, today. I'm traveling and in a bit of a rush.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

EURCHF—dismal

EURCHF is near its low of 1.4000 (currently offered at 1.4008 as of 8:39 AM EST). The big question is now that it's back to its May 6th low whether the Swiss National Bank will intervene. A long here with a tight stop is a possible trade with a small position. However it must be a tight stop because there is no nearby support. Safer might be to sell on a small bounce. But you'll still need tight stops. Resistance is at 1.4065, 1.4117, 1.4188, 1.4334, and 1.4466.

Here's the monthly chart showing just how dismal this pair is:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

May high-lows

Here are the high/lows for May to date. An asterisk indicates a new high or low for the year:

AUDUSD: .9275/.8710
EURGBP: .8808/.8428*
EURJPY: 125.45/110.54*
EURUSD: 1.3253/1.2516*
GBPJPY: 144.92/129.78*
GBPUSD: 1.5283/1.4476*
USDCAD: 1.0745/1.0101
USDCHF: 1.1246*/1.0924
USDJPY: 94.99*/88.01*
USDTRY: 1.6435*/1.4884
USDZAR: 7.9528*/7.3751

GBPUSD—weak

My two long positions profit-stopped out at +40 and +20 pisp respectively. The negative sentiment is just too much for this pair right now.

The low so far this morning has been 1.4746. As I wrote yesterday, above 1.4720/50 things look cautiously positive and one might try a long at these prices. 1.4721 was the low of a doji on the three-hour chart Monday. Tight stops are mandatory. Should it continue to drop then it will most likely stay above the 1.4476 doji low from last Friday and a long could be tried there with a tight stop. Below 1.4389/67 (50% of long daily bars on 1/30 and 3/19/09) is tohu bohu.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USD—Monthly chart

The monthly chart shows what my weekly chart from last week showed—the USD is in an overall uptrend and has been so since 2008.

It looks as though it might be pushing up to the downtrend line drawn from 2002 which would make a third touch for that line. It if goes further, it would be a third touch for the downtrend line drawn from 2005. That price zone is from 86 to 88.70. If it broke that downtrend line then it's likely it will exceed last year's high of 89.71. On the daily chart (not shown) you can make a case for an upwave that will complete just above 85. However, one should expect a correction after that point before it turns up again. So the weekly scenario is the long-term scenario. A correction could see 82.65 (short-term daily uptrend line) and then down as low as 80.03 (April low). Beyond that is the uptrend line on the monthly chart which is just belo 76.

Here's the monthly chart:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—1.2562 low this AM

The Euro is falling, reaching a low of 1.2562 this morning (so far). I have one position left from 1.2996 and I just took additional partial profits at +404 pips. My second one from yesterday stopped at just better than breakeven (had I been actively trading yesterday I would have reestablished it but that's the breaks).

I've tried a new short-term uptrend line on the 3-hour chart which is coming in at 1.2561 after the low this morning. If that doesn't hold, expect to see 1.2513/16. Beyond that is 1.2456 and then 1.2329. However pairs don't fall forever in a straight line and the Euro has had more than its share of falling recently. At some point there will be a rally. Such a rally will probably be another shorting opportunity as the French finance minister's words ("We will defend our currency and we won't let it be attacked by anyone.") are looking just a tad out of touch. Any rally will find resistance at 1.2684, 1.2739/60, 1.2803, 1.2880, 1.2963 (Fib confluence), 1.3038 and 1.3094 (Monday's high).

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

GBPUSD—bounce continues

The pair was gobsmacked by 1.5045 this morning which also happens to be the 10-day SMA of 1.5048. Combined with the fact that 1.5055 served as resistance yesterday, it's not surprising it dropped back to a low of 1.4901 so far. Shorts may be piling in but I'm still long with two positions, one from 1.4774 and one from 1.4815. (I had a second position yesterday from 1.4828 but it stopped at breakeven and I reestablished a bit lower). I just took partial profits on the one from 1.4774 at +151 pips.

For now cable should stay above the 1.4476 doji low from last Friday. Above 1.4720/50 things look cautiously positive. 1.4721 was the low of a doji on the three-hour chart yesterday. While sellers will probably come in with a third attempt at 1.5045/55, it's possible it can break through. Repeated attacks on a price level often are eventually successful. Not always, though. But it the pair does break above that, then resistance is at 1.5107, 1.5247/63, and 1.5391. One calculated price target is 1.5300 so sellers will probably enter there. Support is at 1.4900, 1.4845, 1.4765, 1.4750/20 (Fib confluence zone), 1.4650, 1.4598, 1.4476, and 1.4389/67.

Here's the one-horu chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—Still weak

Falling off from 1.2739 this morning after the rejection yesterday of 1.2760 makes this pair look very weak. I have two shorts in play: one is from 1.2996 which is up 334 pips as I write at 7:06 AM EST; the other is from 1.2697 and I've moved my stop to breakeven on that one.

The pair broke below the short-term uptrend line I drew on the hourly chart yesterday. That line is currently at 1.2734. I've drawn another one which is currently coming in at 1.2615. This would be a third touch so let's see if it can hold. If it doesn't then I'd expect we'll see prices drop back to the low 1.25 area. Below 1.2516 is 1.2456 (the March 2009 low). Remember, though, as I pointed out yesterday that 1.25 is good support.

I quote again the French finance minister from Monday: "We will defend our currency and we won't let it be attacked by anyone." Yes! Right on! One small point, though, is it's harder to defend a slow bleed than it is an attack.

Support is at 1.2615/06, 1.2586, 1.2570, 1.2516 and 1.2456. Resistance is at 1.2739/60, 1.2803, 1.2880, 1.2963 (Fib confluence), 1.3038 and 1.3094 (Monday's high). Shorting on rallies continues appears to be the way to go.













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—correcting

My long from 1.0256 stopped out for a -48 pip loss. I did reverse but got stopped at breakeven on that trade.

So far this morning the pair has dropped to a low of 1.0154. The pair appears to be heading to its short-term uptrend line of 1.0124 on the three-hour chart below. This is close to the daily 21-day SMA of 1.0137. In the drop it broke out of the short-term, narrow trading range of 1.0210 to 1.0288. The price target for this range would be 1.0132. Since these three prices are so close, they should provide some support but let's see. It's possible the market has already forgotten its nervousness of the last several days and is ready to charge ahead and dump the USD.

Support is at 1.0124, 1.0101, 1.0012, .9951 (the uptrend line on the weekly chart), and .9930. Resistance is at 1.0247, 1.0300, 1.0393, 1.0446, 1.0470, 1.0550, 1.0690, and 1.0745.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

GBPUSD—update

The push above 1.49 is positive for cable. Let's see if it can get back to yesterday's high of 1.5055. I took some partial profits on my first long at +140 pips.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—narrow range

Yesterday I entered a long at 1.0256 and since then the pair has been in a narrow range of 1.0210 to 1.0288. There's a lot of indecision out there but the range will break and then we'll see a direction. Below 1.0210 (yesterday's low) is negative and I'll probably stop and reverse.

On the weekly chart (not shown) the pair broke upwards of a downtrend line and although it's edging back there it hasn't done so yet. On the daily chart the candle after the high of 1.0745 last week was what is known as a long-legged or high-wave doji. Dojis represent indecision and that's consistent with the narrow range the pair is within. The high-waved doji dampens the bullish implications of a rally which it certainly did in this case.

Support is at 1.0210, 1.0136, 1.0101, 1.0012, .9951 (the uptrend line on the weekly chart), and .9930. Resistance is at 1.0256, 1.0300, 1.0393, 1.0446, 1.0470, 1.0550, 1.0690, and 1.0745.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—bounce

Yesterday the pair bounced from the 1.4476 low to 1.5055 and fell back to 1.4765 overnight. It now appears to have bounced again and I have two long positions. One is from 1.4774 (stop is now just better than breakeven); the second is from 1.4828 which I just opened. This is a little riskier but it's a smaller position and the stop is not very far away. If it can stay above 1.4720/50, it should have some more bounce in it. A decisive close below that would not be good for this pair. On the three-hour chart below, a doji formed on the most recently closed candle. This is somewhat obscured by my buy (the triangle) but since its low is at support of 1.4721 it's a positive sign.

Support is at 1.4765, 1.4750/20(Fib confluence zone), 1.4650, 1.4598, 1.4476 and 1.4389/67. Resistance is at 1.4854/67, 1.4889, 1.5055, 1.5107, 1.5247/63, and 1.5391.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—near support

I took some partial profits from my short from 1.2996 at +303 pips as the Euro has continued to drift lower. Yesterday's close at the bottom of the daily range was bearish. The pair reached down to 1.2667 today. However, a short-term uptrend line can be drawn from the 1.2516 low to 1.2667 which has a rather nice angle on the hourly chart. Perhaps it can hold above this line. If not, it may drift back down to the low 1.25 area and if it breaks that then 1.2456 (the March 2009 low) is in sight. At that point you'd see some sort of rally. The 1.25 area is good support going back many years. On the monthly chart below you can see it served as a magnet line between 1983 and 1997. And remember the words of the French finance minister from yesterday: "We will defend our currency and we won't let it be attacked by anyone." Okey-dokey.

Support is at 1.2609, 1.2586, 1.2570 and 1.2456. Resistance is at 1.2803, 1.2880, 1.2963 (Fib confluence), 1.3038 and 1.3094 (yesterday's high). Sellers will probably pile in above 1.29.

Here's the monthly chart and the hourly chart:










Hourly Chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Monday, May 10, 2010

USDCAD—correction

The remainder of my long from 1.0135 stopped out for +137 pips in the correction that has taken place down to a low of 1.0210 so far today. I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to 1.0179 which is the top of the triangle it broke upwards from last week but we'll see—it seems to be trying to find support here. Watching momentum behavior is important. I entered a long at 1.0256.

Additional support is at 1.0092 (the uptrend line), 1.0012, and .9930. Resistance is at 1.0393, 1.0470, 1.0571, 1.0681, and 1.0745.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—Weekly chart

If you look at the weekly chart you can see that the pair dropped below its symmetrical triangle in its hefty little plunge last week. Sentiment is very negative on this pair, so negative in fact that it's difficult to believe there isn't a rally nearby. And then of course we have the fearsome French. In the words of the French finance minister': "We will defend our currency and we won't let it be attacked by anyone." Way to go you fearsome warriers. C'est le guerre! We could have used a little of that attitude over here from our Treasury Secretary when our dollar was plummeting.

Back to the chart. I've placed an EW count on the chart which, if correct, indicates the next sustained move will be a 2d wave up. However, the move down may not be complete—it could go back and retest the low of 1.2516.

Here's the weekly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—rally leads to pullback

The Euro rallied during the Asian session up to a high of 1.3094 but has since fallen off despite the French finance minister's message that "We will defend our currency and we won't let it be attacked by anyone." Really? What internal politics led to that statement, I wonder.

No matter, under attack or not, it fell back and has reached a low of 1.2877 so far this morning. I shorted it at 1.2996 and took some partial profits at +93 pips. The remainder of my my short from from 1.3034 profit-stopped out for +50 pips.

The pair may find support in the layers of support that exist nearby. However, even if they're now bailing out the Euro big time, it doesn’t mean an immediate bull market will occur. Be careful if you decide to go long. The best approach is to take short-term trades where you're willing to be flexible.

Support is at 1.2877, 1.2808, 1.2798, 1.2605, 1.2516, 1.2460, 1.2425, and 1.2390. Look for resistance at 1.2905, 1.2996, 1.3067, 1.3094, 1.3214 and 1.3359. Ooh-la-la. Such a nice shorting level that would be.

No chart as I can't get it to post. I'll try again later.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.