Friday, August 6, 2010
Thursday, August 5, 2010
USDCAD—new low
My short from 1.0239 stopped out at +10 pips. Which is too bad because while price action is overall sluggish, the pair has a new low of 1.0108 which is just below the May 13th low of 1.0110. It has bounced a bit.
We've now had three days with a close below the triangle line. I'd be more impressed with this fact if we were in a normal trading environment, i.e. not the doldrums of August. However it is what it is. In addition, the pair has broken below both price and RSI uptrend line. Yet the pair is oversold and price action is so sluggish that I'm staying out for now. If today's low holds, there will probably be a rally and shorts can be re-established. It's possible we're going into sideways movement.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
We've now had three days with a close below the triangle line. I'd be more impressed with this fact if we were in a normal trading environment, i.e. not the doldrums of August. However it is what it is. In addition, the pair has broken below both price and RSI uptrend line. Yet the pair is oversold and price action is so sluggish that I'm staying out for now. If today's low holds, there will probably be a rally and shorts can be re-established. It's possible we're going into sideways movement.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
One of those days
It's going to be one of those days. This is often what trading is like in August, typically a time of lower liquidity which leads to moves that aren't particularly relevant but that can take out reasonable stops. There are lots of conflicting signals on the charts and there is also general sluggishness. It's a good time to stay out of the market.
EURUSD—little movement
My long from 1.3116 was profit-stopped at 1.3139 for +23 pips. (It's 20 pips here and there so far this month. Frustrating but it happens). I went short just now at 1.3169.
Euro reached a low of 1.3120 overnight. The pair managed to spike up to 1.3236 this morning after what appeared to be an evening star on the one-hour chart (not shown). The current candle on the three-hour chart may complete an evening star (but one has to wait until the candle completes). A Reuter's poll showed that there's consensus opinion Euro will drop to 1.2000 in 12 months. So why isn't it dropping more than it is? I'm not sure it's quite ready to give up the ghost and I won't be until it moves and stays definitively below 1.3150/25. It's troubling that the drop so far has been only to the .382 retracement of the move down from the November high. An argument could be made it's retesting support.
There is, however, slight negative divergence on the three-hour chart. It could also fail a test of support. The fact remains though that if wave C is over then there is going to have to be a five-wave decline from 1.3262. This is another pair where I may be willing to reverse.
Resistance is 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3355 and 1.3433 and 1.3525 (50% retracement of wave one down from November highs).
Support is 1.3125 (.382 retracement of move down from Nov high), 1.3000, 1.2981/50, and 1.2877.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Euro reached a low of 1.3120 overnight. The pair managed to spike up to 1.3236 this morning after what appeared to be an evening star on the one-hour chart (not shown). The current candle on the three-hour chart may complete an evening star (but one has to wait until the candle completes). A Reuter's poll showed that there's consensus opinion Euro will drop to 1.2000 in 12 months. So why isn't it dropping more than it is? I'm not sure it's quite ready to give up the ghost and I won't be until it moves and stays definitively below 1.3150/25. It's troubling that the drop so far has been only to the .382 retracement of the move down from the November high. An argument could be made it's retesting support.
There is, however, slight negative divergence on the three-hour chart. It could also fail a test of support. The fact remains though that if wave C is over then there is going to have to be a five-wave decline from 1.3262. This is another pair where I may be willing to reverse.
Resistance is 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3355 and 1.3433 and 1.3525 (50% retracement of wave one down from November highs).
Support is 1.3125 (.382 retracement of move down from Nov high), 1.3000, 1.2981/50, and 1.2877.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—update
Stopped out for -40 pips as the pair dropped to an uptrend line. Have gone long again at 1.0446.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—not giving up the fight yet
The drop to 1.5820 profit-stopped me out at +20 pips.
I shorted again this morning at 1.5910. However, with the strong uptrend this pair has been experiencing, a short is definitely bucking the trend. it's only because the .618 retracement is causing it to falter, the fact that I can have a tight stop and the reality that a corrective move down is overdue that makes me willing to risk a short position. The pair is fighting the move down which means the bulls are buying this small drop. I will be willing to reverse as there is more upside potential if the pair overtakes the 1.5958 resistance. Let's see what happens today.
Resistance is at 1.5958, 1.6000, and 1.6070. Support is at 1.5820, 1.5696 (Monday's low) and 1.5530.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I shorted again this morning at 1.5910. However, with the strong uptrend this pair has been experiencing, a short is definitely bucking the trend. it's only because the .618 retracement is causing it to falter, the fact that I can have a tight stop and the reality that a corrective move down is overdue that makes me willing to risk a short position. The pair is fighting the move down which means the bulls are buying this small drop. I will be willing to reverse as there is more upside potential if the pair overtakes the 1.5958 resistance. Let's see what happens today.
Resistance is at 1.5958, 1.6000, and 1.6070. Support is at 1.5820, 1.5696 (Monday's low) and 1.5530.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—dropped to support
My long from 1.0466 profit-stopped out at 1.0491 for +25 pips. I'm glad I took some partial profits yesterday when it faltered just below the 1.0560 resistance zone.
I'm back in long at 1.0462. Why? One reason is that the pair dropped to support overnight (although rather sharply) where it then seemed to base. This support level was also about a 50% retracement of the move up from 1.0348 to yesterday's high of 1.0555. Momentum, via RSI, is still relatively OK. Finally, with an overnight low of 1.0446 I can have a tight stop.
Yet, the same barriers exist today. It has to get through the formidable 1.0560 to 1.0675 resistance zone. You can see that traders were quick to sell when the pair began faltering at resistance. So we're going to have to see what happens.
Resistance is at 1.0487, 1.0525, 1.0555, 1.0640/54, 1.0675 (tight layers make for tough resistance) and 1.1138 (yeah, well, if it does clear all that resistance then there's not a lot of resistance before that price). Support is at 1.0446, 1.0426, 1.0380 (yesterday's 3-hour doji), 1.0348/38 and 1.0228/17.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm back in long at 1.0462. Why? One reason is that the pair dropped to support overnight (although rather sharply) where it then seemed to base. This support level was also about a 50% retracement of the move up from 1.0348 to yesterday's high of 1.0555. Momentum, via RSI, is still relatively OK. Finally, with an overnight low of 1.0446 I can have a tight stop.
Yet, the same barriers exist today. It has to get through the formidable 1.0560 to 1.0675 resistance zone. You can see that traders were quick to sell when the pair began faltering at resistance. So we're going to have to see what happens.
Resistance is at 1.0487, 1.0525, 1.0555, 1.0640/54, 1.0675 (tight layers make for tough resistance) and 1.1138 (yeah, well, if it does clear all that resistance then there's not a lot of resistance before that price). Support is at 1.0446, 1.0426, 1.0380 (yesterday's 3-hour doji), 1.0348/38 and 1.0228/17.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
USDCHF—update
Took partial profits at +80 pips. It's faltering just below the 1.0560 resistance zone.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—rally
I took another long yesterday at 1.0391. I set my profit target at 1.0460 (near the first serious resistance) and I didn't review it first thing this morning since first, I slept late for me and second, I had a meeting to attend. So there it profit-stopped out for +69 pips. I immediately entered another long at 1.0466 and that one is stopped just better than breakeven.
So the pair managed to base at 1.0348. With a high so far of 1.0528, it has overcome its first resistance level. However the more formidable 1.0560 to 1.0675 resistance zone is just ahead so let's see what happens there. Support is at 1.0475, 1.0348/38 and 1.0228/17.
Here's the three-hour chart showing the current very bullish looking candle:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
So the pair managed to base at 1.0348. With a high so far of 1.0528, it has overcome its first resistance level. However the more formidable 1.0560 to 1.0675 resistance zone is just ahead so let's see what happens there. Support is at 1.0475, 1.0348/38 and 1.0228/17.
Here's the three-hour chart showing the current very bullish looking candle:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—update
Out of USDCAD at +10 pips. We'll have to see if the pair is going to retest its break out line or resume an overall uptrend.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—dropping
After reaching a high of 1.3262 yesterday, Euro has fallen off to a low so far this morning of 1.3154. So it's either retesting that 1.3150 level or the .382 retracement level of 1.3125 or it's finally backing off from a C wave high and resuming its downtrend. Prices over the next hour or so should tell the story. I'm still long from 1.3116 but my stop is close by.
Resistance is 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3355 and 1.3433 and 1.3525 (50% retracement of wave one down from November highs). Support is 1.3125 (.382 retracement of move down from Nov high), 1.3000, 1.2981/50, and 1.2877.
I'll post a chart later after watching it for a bit longer.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance is 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3355 and 1.3433 and 1.3525 (50% retracement of wave one down from November highs). Support is 1.3125 (.382 retracement of move down from Nov high), 1.3000, 1.2981/50, and 1.2877.
I'll post a chart later after watching it for a bit longer.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—hovering below.618 retracement
I went short at 1.5936. The stop is 10 pips better than breakeven.
Cable hasn't exceeded yesterday's high of 1.5958 which was just ten pips shy of the .618 retracement of the move down from 1.7043 to 1.4228. Sellers do seem to have come in but the price hasn't exactly plunged downwards. The low so far has been only 1.5881. We'll have to wait and see on this one.
The next resistance level would be the round number of 1.6000 and then the Feb. '10 high of 1.6070. Support is at 1.5892, 1.5872, 1.5701, and 1.5552.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Cable hasn't exceeded yesterday's high of 1.5958 which was just ten pips shy of the .618 retracement of the move down from 1.7043 to 1.4228. Sellers do seem to have come in but the price hasn't exactly plunged downwards. The low so far has been only 1.5881. We'll have to wait and see on this one.
The next resistance level would be the round number of 1.6000 and then the Feb. '10 high of 1.6070. Support is at 1.5892, 1.5872, 1.5701, and 1.5552.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—heading lower
USDCAD price action is still sluggish although it judged edged below the Aug. 2nd 1.0205 low with a low so far this morning of 1.0197. Yesterday was an inside day where the price action was contained within that of the prior day. While these represent indecision, this one seems to be only a mirror for the general lack of motion in this pair.
I'm still short from 1.0239 (stop is a little better than breakeven) and I may take partial profits soon. The reason is that while the breakout from the triangle was downwards (which is the reason I'm short) there are some conflicting signals on the longer term charts. I'll write about those later. However, the weekly chart (often helpful for determining overall direction when daily action is sluggish) seems to support a possible drop to the uptrend line and then an upward move. That trend line is at 1.0037.
Watching momentum on the shorter-term charts will be important. Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn't show on this as I use a different charting package for these.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm still short from 1.0239 (stop is a little better than breakeven) and I may take partial profits soon. The reason is that while the breakout from the triangle was downwards (which is the reason I'm short) there are some conflicting signals on the longer term charts. I'll write about those later. However, the weekly chart (often helpful for determining overall direction when daily action is sluggish) seems to support a possible drop to the uptrend line and then an upward move. That trend line is at 1.0037.
Watching momentum on the shorter-term charts will be important. Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn't show on this as I use a different charting package for these.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
GBPUSD—at .618 retracement
With a high of 1.5958, cable has almost reached its .618 retracement of the move down from 1.7043 to 1.4228 (1.5968). Sellers will come in here so a small short might be in order. The steep level of ascent will be difficult to maintain.
The next resistance level would be the round number of 1.6000 and then the Feb. '10 high of 1.6070. Support is at 1.5872, 1.5701, and 1.5552.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The next resistance level would be the round number of 1.6000 and then the Feb. '10 high of 1.6070. Support is at 1.5872, 1.5701, and 1.5552.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—dithering about
Now that the USDCAD broke below its coiling triangle, it's dithering about in a tight 1.0218 to 1.0256 tight range. I went short at 1.0239 and I have a really tight stop and will not be adverse to reversing if need be. There is some slight positive divergence on the shorter term charts. I won't include a new chart in this post since there is little to add since the prior one.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDJPY—wedge bottom
Even though this pair is in a vicious, long-term downtrend, there's a potential buy on the daily chart as it nears the bottom of a wedge (85.57). Because wedge lines are often steep, it's difficult to maintain the angle. This hints there might be a rally of sorts as it bounces off the bottom line. It's sometimes said that the "safest" way to trade a wage is to wait for a break outside the boundary lines. I'm not completely in agreement with this but trading style and risk management are things each trader needs to ascertain for themselves. Sometimes after a break, prices tend to dither about before making a sustained move.
Note, too, the positive divergence on the daily chart. There's also positive divergence on the three- and one-hour charts. The low of November '09 was 84.82. The pair is currently offered at 85.82. If I go long I'd want to start taking partial profits fairly quickly and in any case by the time price reached 86.50 or so, perhaps even 86. There's additional resistance at 87.05, 87.45, and 87.70. That's a strong zone. If the pair breaks below the line, then support is at 85.50, 85.00, and 84.82 (Nov. '09 low). Below that is a 1995 low of 79.70 with no real interim support before it. Obviously one would want to be short.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Note, too, the positive divergence on the daily chart. There's also positive divergence on the three- and one-hour charts. The low of November '09 was 84.82. The pair is currently offered at 85.82. If I go long I'd want to start taking partial profits fairly quickly and in any case by the time price reached 86.50 or so, perhaps even 86. There's additional resistance at 87.05, 87.45, and 87.70. That's a strong zone. If the pair breaks below the line, then support is at 85.50, 85.00, and 84.82 (Nov. '09 low). Below that is a 1995 low of 79.70 with no real interim support before it. Obviously one would want to be short.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—trying to base
My long from 1.0396 profit-stopped at +10 pips.
This morning the pair is trying to base. Yesterday's low was 1.0348; today's (so far) has been 1.0349. Note the wedge shape as well. I may try a small buy here. As I pointed out yesterday, there the weekly candles are less robust which hints that supply may be drying up and that things might turn up, at least a bit. Today's basing action supports that. RSI also looks good on the charts—none of this plunging into oversold areas (below 30) that would hint at wholesale rejection of the pair. In fact there is some positive divergence. However, any buy would need a very tight stop. The potential profits are also limited until the pair can break above 1.0476. Above that is the 1.0560 to 1.0675 resistance zone. Support is at 1.0348/38 and 1.0228/17.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This morning the pair is trying to base. Yesterday's low was 1.0348; today's (so far) has been 1.0349. Note the wedge shape as well. I may try a small buy here. As I pointed out yesterday, there the weekly candles are less robust which hints that supply may be drying up and that things might turn up, at least a bit. Today's basing action supports that. RSI also looks good on the charts—none of this plunging into oversold areas (below 30) that would hint at wholesale rejection of the pair. In fact there is some positive divergence. However, any buy would need a very tight stop. The potential profits are also limited until the pair can break above 1.0476. Above that is the 1.0560 to 1.0675 resistance zone. Support is at 1.0348/38 and 1.0228/17.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—good rally
Euro is doing well by breaking through the 1.3150 resistance from yesterday and also achieving a high of 1.3262 this morning before falling off a bit. I bought yesterday at 1.3116 and took partial profits at +110 pips this morning. I may add back to my position.
Technically, the pair could be held back by the 1.3250 area but it doesn't seem likely. The next price target is in the 1.34 area. As I've written, if wave C is 2.168 of wave A the target is 1.3433. The inverted bull flag target is in the 1.34 area. 1.3398 to 1.3422 were some April highs. So there is a lot of energy for this area as a target; if it gets there that's also enough resistance to cause selling with a resulting price drop. We'll have to see what happens. Before that is daily channel resistance at 1.3355.
So resistance is 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3355 and 1.3433 and 1.3525 (50% retracement of wave one down from November highs). If it exceeds that then we're in for interesting times. Support is 1.3218, 1.3125 (.382 retracement of move down from Nov high), 1.3000, 1.2981/50, and 1.2877.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Technically, the pair could be held back by the 1.3250 area but it doesn't seem likely. The next price target is in the 1.34 area. As I've written, if wave C is 2.168 of wave A the target is 1.3433. The inverted bull flag target is in the 1.34 area. 1.3398 to 1.3422 were some April highs. So there is a lot of energy for this area as a target; if it gets there that's also enough resistance to cause selling with a resulting price drop. We'll have to see what happens. Before that is daily channel resistance at 1.3355.
So resistance is 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3355 and 1.3433 and 1.3525 (50% retracement of wave one down from November highs). If it exceeds that then we're in for interesting times. Support is 1.3218, 1.3125 (.382 retracement of move down from Nov high), 1.3000, 1.2981/50, and 1.2877.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, August 2, 2010
Caution
August is a month with much less liquidity than usual so moves are likely to be exagerated. In addition, for those traders who are into astro-economics, there’s something known as a cardinal cross taking place and the interpretation of this is largely negative for the financial markets. I don’t know it it’s true or not but it doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. What matters is how many people trading believe it’s true and how that will affect their trading. In addition, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty overall. With all of this the month is likely to be difficult to trade so caution is necessary. Staying out more than being in is probably the best approach.
EURUSD—monthly
Euro closed out the month with a significant bullish engulfing candle that completed a morning star. So on the monthly chart, things look positive for this pair. It’s possible the pair could trade back up to the downward trend line at just above 1.45. If you look at a daily chart (not shown), you could make an argument for being in an overall impulsive wave at this point. Before one rushes out to go long, it’s also worth noting that momentum, as represented by RSI, is not great on the monthly chart.
However, there’s a lot of emotion around this pair (most pairs, actually) and there could be an equally strong reaction this month. Also, it’s nearing a strong resistance point with 1.3125 being .382 retracement of the move down from last November (it touched 1.3106 last week), and the 1.3108/50 (Elliott calculation and bull flag target). If it exceeds 1.3150, it’s on track for the price target of the inverted head and shoulders at 1.34. If Wave C was 2.168 times that of A, the price target is 1.3433 so this is corraborating evidence. There are lots of bears out there, though, in the 1.3150 area so this is the most interesting level. If it can overcome it then I’ll probably go long. If not, then short.
Support is at 1.3026, 1.2981, 1.2950/30 (note the closeness of these levels so this is a strong support zone), 1.2875, 1.2840, 1.2794, 1.2733, 1.2683 and 1.2523. Resistance is at 1.3106, 1.3150, 1.3240, 1.3300, and 1.3430.
Here’s the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
However, there’s a lot of emotion around this pair (most pairs, actually) and there could be an equally strong reaction this month. Also, it’s nearing a strong resistance point with 1.3125 being .382 retracement of the move down from last November (it touched 1.3106 last week), and the 1.3108/50 (Elliott calculation and bull flag target). If it exceeds 1.3150, it’s on track for the price target of the inverted head and shoulders at 1.34. If Wave C was 2.168 times that of A, the price target is 1.3433 so this is corraborating evidence. There are lots of bears out there, though, in the 1.3150 area so this is the most interesting level. If it can overcome it then I’ll probably go long. If not, then short.
Support is at 1.3026, 1.2981, 1.2950/30 (note the closeness of these levels so this is a strong support zone), 1.2875, 1.2840, 1.2794, 1.2733, 1.2683 and 1.2523. Resistance is at 1.3106, 1.3150, 1.3240, 1.3300, and 1.3430.
Here’s the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—weak bounce
My buy order was executed at 1.0396 and I currently have my stop set 10 pips above breakeven. The pair reached a high of 1.0476 where it encountered resistance and has since fallen back to a low so far this morning of 1.0433. The bounce off support doesn’t seem particularly robust particularly after the pair had dropped to a low of 1.0362. This was below the prior two touches at support of 1.04. On the weekly chart this will be the 9th week of lower lows (it’s already exceeded last week’s low). Generally, one doesn’t see more than five to seven weeks without some sort of higher low, even if it’s a very anemic one. During the long downtrend period in 2009 you saw some candles with higher lows. A look at the weekly chart shows that while the beginning candles of this latest downtrend were robust, they’ve become less so and with more upper and lower shadows. That’s a hint things may be about to turn up but it can go on like this for a while before it does.
As I wrote last week, until the pair overcomes the tough resistance from 1.0560 to 1.0675, further rises seem improbable. This may have to be sideways trade for the time being as it has been since earlier in July. On the three-hour chart this move looks corrective during a downtrend which hints more lows may be coming. As my longer term analyis has shown, however, the pair is still in an overall uptrend and will remain so above 1.0048.
Support is at 1.0420, 1.0400/395, 1.0362, and 1.0228/17. Resistance is at 1.0446, 1.0550/60, 1.0603, 1.0640, and 1.0676.
Here’s the weekly chart. My trade doesn’t show on this chart as I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charts.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
As I wrote last week, until the pair overcomes the tough resistance from 1.0560 to 1.0675, further rises seem improbable. This may have to be sideways trade for the time being as it has been since earlier in July. On the three-hour chart this move looks corrective during a downtrend which hints more lows may be coming. As my longer term analyis has shown, however, the pair is still in an overall uptrend and will remain so above 1.0048.
Support is at 1.0420, 1.0400/395, 1.0362, and 1.0228/17. Resistance is at 1.0446, 1.0550/60, 1.0603, 1.0640, and 1.0676.
Here’s the weekly chart. My trade doesn’t show on this chart as I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charts.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—dropped below triangle
USDCAD dropped below its triangle, reaching a low of 1.0227 so far this morning. I did have a buy order in from last week that was executed at 1.0275 and that was stopped out at 1.0248 (-27 pips).
The question is whether this is a fakeout or breakout downward. If the latter, the potential drop is 929 pips, the width of the triangle. That would make for interesting news. Before it got there it would find strong support at 1.0139/10 (two prior touches on the daily chart) and 1.0070 (uptrend line on the weekly and monthly chart). The momentum, as represented by RSI, is fairly good. What I mean here is that it hasn’t plunged and there is some positive divergence on the hourly chart. We’re just going to have to watch and wait on this one but I take the break of the trend line seriously. Currently, it’s trying to base on the shorter term charts. A re-test of the line at 1.0275 and a turn down would definitely signal a short. Reinforcing evidence would be behavior of the USD index to below 79.51.
Here’s the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The question is whether this is a fakeout or breakout downward. If the latter, the potential drop is 929 pips, the width of the triangle. That would make for interesting news. Before it got there it would find strong support at 1.0139/10 (two prior touches on the daily chart) and 1.0070 (uptrend line on the weekly and monthly chart). The momentum, as represented by RSI, is fairly good. What I mean here is that it hasn’t plunged and there is some positive divergence on the hourly chart. We’re just going to have to watch and wait on this one but I take the break of the trend line seriously. Currently, it’s trying to base on the shorter term charts. A re-test of the line at 1.0275 and a turn down would definitely signal a short. Reinforcing evidence would be behavior of the USD index to below 79.51.
Here’s the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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