Tuesday, August 3, 2010

USDCHF—trying to base

My long from 1.0396 profit-stopped at +10 pips.

This morning the pair is trying to base. Yesterday's low was 1.0348; today's (so far) has been 1.0349. Note the wedge shape as well. I may try a small buy here. As I pointed out yesterday, there the weekly candles are less robust which hints that supply may be drying up and that things might turn up, at least a bit. Today's basing action supports that. RSI also looks good on the charts—none of this plunging into oversold areas (below 30) that would hint at wholesale rejection of the pair. In fact there is some positive divergence. However, any buy would need a very tight stop. The potential profits are also limited until the pair can break above 1.0476. Above that is the 1.0560 to 1.0675 resistance zone. Support is at 1.0348/38 and 1.0228/17.

Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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