In a recap of the week so far as of 8:57 AM EST:
AUDUSD stumbled around this week, closing yesterday at .9878, just 10 pips below where it ended last Friday. Its high has been 1.0077 this week so unless something radical happens today, this week will end with only a slightly higher high and low than last week. Breaking a daily uptrend line was not good news and probably set off a round of covering for long positions taken when Aussie still looked as though it could get to 1.03 and above. Resistance is at .9900 (high this morning so far is .9903), .9916, .9982, and 1.0020/56. Only a close above that level (not likely today) would open a door to 1.0183, 1.0214, and 1.0257. Support is at .9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32. Overall, I'm bearish, looking at possible targets of .9740, .9490, .9213 and below.
EURGBP has been rallying this week and reached a high this morning of .8530. Bullish behavior as long as it closes above .8500. There's strong resistance just above with the 100 daily SMA at .8534 and the .618 retracement of the most recent move down at .8512.
EURJPY bounced this week, moving from a low of 109.58 on Monday to a high of 112.26 this morning. This has probably shaken out most of those who were short so there's likely to be stalling. There's a possibility the pair could get back to 115.69, the top of the general range that harkens back to September 2009. From there, I'd short for sure. Before it reached that price EURJPY must scale strong resistance in the 112 zone with fibs, price highs and the 200 daily moving average working to hold it down.
EURUSD did well this week, confounding some of the bears who were squeezed throughout the week. 1.3244 was Monday's low; the high this morning so far is 1.3567. The potential is there for a move up to the 1.38 area as I've been blogging but first, one would want to see a close today above 1.35. This is doable. None of this negates the overall bearish pattern. Only a move above 1.3860 would make things look more positive, possibly signaling a return to the 1.4282 prior high.
GBPJPY was another pair that marched up this week from a low of 130.99 on Monday to a high yesterday of 132.27. Guppy is staying above 132 so far this morning. However, the weekly 10 EMA has been capping the pair in the past. That is currently 132.92. I'm planning to short around 133.00 but obviously I'll be watching price behavior closely. There's a possibility of the pair reaching 134.20 before keeling over in exhaustion. Good support is at 131.60.
GBPUSD looked good this week on a day-to-day basis but now looks as though it's weakening. Yesterday's close was 1.5932, only 9 pips above last Friday's close. It did reach a high of 1.6059 on Tuesday (which is nothing to sneeze at) but a weekly close of 1.6000 is what it will take to keep bulls happy and the bears on the defensive. If it drops below Monday's low of 1.5836, that will increase pressure on the Cable and 1.5600 and 1.5475 are the next supports.
USDCAD had an interesting week, being given up for dead with its recent lows of .9849. This is one of the times that the bearish sentiment caught me up in its clutches (and one of the reasons I usually read very little commentary during the week). I had a target that I blogged about on Tuesday of .9850 and I bought at .9860. Had I stayed in that position, I would have been fine but when it couldn't reach the daily 10 SMA, I gave up and closed the trade for a piddling 40 pips. I then went short and lost the 40 pips. At least I had the sense to stop and reverse at that point so I made the loss back but it's a great example of how even someone as stubborn as I am can lose my focus. The pair managed to climb as high as 1.0031 yesterday, giving some evidence to my hypothesis that the pair had formed an ending diagonal from which the move should be up. However, this game isn't over yet; there are some troubling signs in the pair with price targets extending down into the .9500 area. Ideally, the pair would close above parity for the week to provide a bullish outlook. The low this morning, so far, has been .9917. That's just about on the 50%retracement of the move up so let's see how it goes from here.
USDCHF never managed to get above last week's high of .9784, spending the week correcting from its move up from .9300. The pullback looks as though it might be ending and a bull flag on the daily chart targets 1.0388. It would be great if .9600 held as support (.382 of the most recent move up) and I may buy in again at that level. Below that is .9543/.9521 and then the .618 of .9485. Dropping below that would be bearish.
USDJPY managed a nice recovery from its drop to support of 81.86 on Wednesday and rose to a high of 83.13 yesterday. Since the early January low was 81.23, this makes for support in the 81.86/23 zone. There's a bull flag on the hourly that targets 84.06 but note that the high brought it to the short-term, resistance, downtrend line from early January.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Thursday, January 20, 2011
EURUSD—signs of weakness
While the Euro did break above resistance as I blogged about yesterday, there are some signs of weakness popping up. It did not close yesterday above 1.3457. The break above could turn out to be a fake-out.
First thing to remember is that the pair is in a downtrend—only a break above the November high of 1.4282 would bring a little optimism into the picture.
Second thing is what I blogged about yesterday—Euro has all the chartacteristics of an Elliott Wave expanded flat wave c. Looking at the three-hour chart below, one could make a case that the fifth wave of circle c is completing. If so, the next move is down. Howver, it could also get significantly higher before it turns down so one must be cautious.
On the chart below, one also sees the RSI failure swings I mentioned yesterday. This, too, is bearish.
About the only thing that's positive is the bull flag on the three-hour chart which I've drawn in green on the chart below. That would be invalidated with a close below 1.3400. However, until it is, upside targets remain at 1.3842 with fib and polarity resistance at 1.3887.
A break below 1.3290 would be bearish with support at 1.3244, 1.3000, 1.2969, and 1.2850.
I'm short from 1.3480 but I've moved the stop to breakeven.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
First thing to remember is that the pair is in a downtrend—only a break above the November high of 1.4282 would bring a little optimism into the picture.
Second thing is what I blogged about yesterday—Euro has all the chartacteristics of an Elliott Wave expanded flat wave c. Looking at the three-hour chart below, one could make a case that the fifth wave of circle c is completing. If so, the next move is down. Howver, it could also get significantly higher before it turns down so one must be cautious.
On the chart below, one also sees the RSI failure swings I mentioned yesterday. This, too, is bearish.
About the only thing that's positive is the bull flag on the three-hour chart which I've drawn in green on the chart below. That would be invalidated with a close below 1.3400. However, until it is, upside targets remain at 1.3842 with fib and polarity resistance at 1.3887.
A break below 1.3290 would be bearish with support at 1.3244, 1.3000, 1.2969, and 1.2850.
I'm short from 1.3480 but I've moved the stop to breakeven.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—stalled
Aussie is at a significant point with its drop in the past hour to .9911. There was a recent hammer low of .9926 on the hourly chart so penetration below that is ominous if it continues and closes below there. The short term uptrend line from the 11 January .9804 low is at .9916—another point it shouldn't drop below in order for the bulls to remain confident (or actually to have any hope at all).
One can make a case for a bear flag on the three-hour chart with the break coming at .9916 for a price target of .9463. My only concern with the flag is that the length of it is longer than the flagpole (61 candles versus 52) which is not normally what happens—it's usually about 1/2 to 2/3 the length for the best results. RSI has broken below its short-term trend line. If price follows, that's bearish.
However, it's common in spot Forex for prices to dip below or above a point and then reverse (a fake-out). So this may be what's happening here. If it can break and close above its daily 20 SMA (currently 1.0013) there'd be more reason for optimism. As it is, I'm leaning short.
I'll post a chart later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
One can make a case for a bear flag on the three-hour chart with the break coming at .9916 for a price target of .9463. My only concern with the flag is that the length of it is longer than the flagpole (61 candles versus 52) which is not normally what happens—it's usually about 1/2 to 2/3 the length for the best results. RSI has broken below its short-term trend line. If price follows, that's bearish.
However, it's common in spot Forex for prices to dip below or above a point and then reverse (a fake-out). So this may be what's happening here. If it can break and close above its daily 20 SMA (currently 1.0013) there'd be more reason for optimism. As it is, I'm leaning short.
I'll post a chart later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—stop and reverse
Finally, the pair managed to get above the 10 daily SMA yesterday. I did a stop and reverse at .9939 (-41 pips). This, by the way, gave back my profit on my previous USDCAD trade but there's potentially some valuable information here. First, the pair may be going into a choppy period where traders will get whipsawed. That wouldn't be surprising—there's much uncertainty out there. Second, it could be my earlier interpretations of bullishness this week were correct despite the ominous patterns I talked about yesterday. If it's the former then this trade, too, will be stopped (but at breakeven). I'm not closing out part of it at this point as chasing 40 pips here and 40 pips there is a waste of time. It will either run or it won't. If it's the latter, then basing took place at the lows and there's the possibility of a short squeeze coming up right above parity. Lots of possibilities and the market will sort them out sooner rather than later.
The pair has nudged above parity to 1.0006 so far this morning. I'd like to see a close today above parity.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has nudged above parity to 1.0006 so far this morning. I'd like to see a close today above parity.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
EURUSD—failure swing
One thing to watch in the Euro is the failure swing in RSI on the one- and three-hour charts. Welles Wilder in his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, wrote that failure swings are "significant after an RSI high in the area of 70 or low in the area of 30 (p.68). This is what has happened on both charts with the subsequent swing up not penetrating the prior swing up. It's bearish but of course with short-term charts it means in the short-term. However, combined with the overall downtrend in the longer multi-month time frame and with the fact it's at resistance, could mean the pair will finally start moving lower again. Let's see.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—broke above resistance
Euro broke above resistance at 1.3457 and 1.3500 with a high so far today of 1.3539. It needs to close above these levels to remain bullish. If it does, the price target is 1.3842/65. I arrived at those using the three-hour bull flag on the three-hour chart and calulating the potential wave C of the Elliott expanded flat that seems to be unfolding. I've drawn the bull flag on the three-hour chart below. I also noted where prices corresponded to the wave count I placed on the daily chart yesterday. There's also a fib and polarity at 1.3887. All this would create potential for a return to the 1.4283 November high. Bulls would rejoice as would the Eurozone finance ministers.
On the down side, it is wise to remember that Euro is in a downtrend in the larger picture and this is an overall corrective move. It's also resolving the positive divergence on the daily chart that I blogged about yesterday. The first support is at 1.3244. A close beneath there turns things bearish again and opens support at 1.3000, 1.2969, and 1.2850. After these levels, price would probably begin to accelerate downwards to 1.2500.
So what are my plans? Until I get some other signals I'm staying flat for the moment. I'll be looking for failure through such things as shorter-term divergences and patterns that may develop in the short term. If that doesn't happen, I'll buy on a retracement.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the down side, it is wise to remember that Euro is in a downtrend in the larger picture and this is an overall corrective move. It's also resolving the positive divergence on the daily chart that I blogged about yesterday. The first support is at 1.3244. A close beneath there turns things bearish again and opens support at 1.3000, 1.2969, and 1.2850. After these levels, price would probably begin to accelerate downwards to 1.2500.
So what are my plans? Until I get some other signals I'm staying flat for the moment. I'll be looking for failure through such things as shorter-term divergences and patterns that may develop in the short term. If that doesn't happen, I'll buy on a retracement.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY Hourly Chart
Here's the hourly chart I was talking about in my last post. The only thing I didn't mention was the negative divergenge.
EURJPY—rally
I'm out of the remainder of my long from 109.85 at 110.30 yesterday (+45 pips) when it looked as though the pair might fail at resistance. It hasn't gotten above 111.16 but this rise technically invalidated the daily evening star since that high was 110.99.
The C leg of the ABC targeted 111.09 (1.618A) so we're right in the vicinity of that and we're also at confluence.
Two things jump out at me on the hourly chart. First, the pair has been in a sideways consolidation since 8AM EST yesterday morning. It's a fairly narrow rectangle of 97 pips (111.16/110.19) and when prices hover in a narrow band such as this just above or below resistance it's often a bullish sign because demand (buying) is enough to prevent a retracement. If it does break upward, the target is 112.13.
The other thing that jumps out is the look of a triangle forming which in Eliott Wave speak would break upwards. In classical technical analysis the triangle is often a continuation move. The top of the triangle is 111.24 from which it could break upward to target 112.54. This is close to resistance consisting of price highs, fibs, and the 200 MA at 112.43. Beyond that, within the upward sloping channel, there are targets of 113.04 and 113.78.
On the downside the support remains at 109.85, 109.58, 1.0895 (prior resistance), 108.50 and 108.00. Below that is a zone of support from 107.86 down to 106.83, then 106.24 and 105.83.
I'll post a chart later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The C leg of the ABC targeted 111.09 (1.618A) so we're right in the vicinity of that and we're also at confluence.
Two things jump out at me on the hourly chart. First, the pair has been in a sideways consolidation since 8AM EST yesterday morning. It's a fairly narrow rectangle of 97 pips (111.16/110.19) and when prices hover in a narrow band such as this just above or below resistance it's often a bullish sign because demand (buying) is enough to prevent a retracement. If it does break upward, the target is 112.13.
The other thing that jumps out is the look of a triangle forming which in Eliott Wave speak would break upwards. In classical technical analysis the triangle is often a continuation move. The top of the triangle is 111.24 from which it could break upward to target 112.54. This is close to resistance consisting of price highs, fibs, and the 200 MA at 112.43. Beyond that, within the upward sloping channel, there are targets of 113.04 and 113.78.
On the downside the support remains at 109.85, 109.58, 1.0895 (prior resistance), 108.50 and 108.00. Below that is a zone of support from 107.86 down to 106.83, then 106.24 and 105.83.
I'll post a chart later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—can't reach daily 10 SMA
.9984 was yesterday's high which rebuffed it again this morning. I closed the remainder of my .9860 trade for +40 pips. In an over-excited market for the Euro, it's not likely this pair can get far. I shorted at .9898.
I won't bet the bank on it falling too far but there are some ominous patterns. First, an ABC on the hourly yesterday, targeted .9966 if C equaled A (.9745 if it was 1.618A). Since it faltered at .9935, it looks as though this short-term may be over.
Second, if one looks back on the daily chart, there is a triangle that began 4/21/2009 and which the pair penetrated below this past October. It retested the lower boundary for some time and then seems to have begun declining in earnest down to this week's low of .9838. The price target from this triangle is a .9549. I never look at just one thing but when I was running some fibs late yesterday, I discovered that .9561 is the .618 retracement of .9058 (2007) to 1.0374. The two prices are very close together. The downtrend line I began drawing 12/21/10 comes in around this level as well if I extend it. I also have targets from Point & Figure charts that are lower than this although I think they're somewhat unrealistic.
What about the wedge pattern I wrote about yesterday? It's there. Wedges can occur during long downtrends. As I wrote yesterday, in a declining wedge, prices generally break upwards because the steep angle is difficult to maintain.
If one considers it as an Elliott ending diagonal then as price action narrows in the fifth wave, it breaks upwards. I've marked waves one through four which I believe ended with yesterday's high. Now this five of five should break down no further than .9805 or so. Price would then break up and out. There's a rule for ending diagonals that says wave four always ends in the territory of wave one. If it ended with yesterday's high it has not done so. Prechter and Frost's book on Elliott Wave Principle note one exception to this so I'm not sure how they can call it a rule but there you go. Otherwise this qualifies if you consider it occurring in the fifth wave down from the 1.3065 high in March 2009. OK, if that's what it is then prices will break upwards fairly soon, the pair will overtake its daily 10 SMA (currently .9907) and there will be a nice rise in prices. One has to see the break happen first, with a close above .9947. Same is true if we drop the Elliott blah-blah and just treat it as a wedge. If it does break upwards, there's a zone of resistance in this area up to parity, consisting of moving averages, price highs and lows, and fib confluence.
There's also a slight positive divergence on the daily chart although divergence is everywhere it seems and this one has been going on since last March.
Bottom line, I'm short with a tolerable stop (not too much risk even if it breaks upward). We will have to see.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I won't bet the bank on it falling too far but there are some ominous patterns. First, an ABC on the hourly yesterday, targeted .9966 if C equaled A (.9745 if it was 1.618A). Since it faltered at .9935, it looks as though this short-term may be over.
Second, if one looks back on the daily chart, there is a triangle that began 4/21/2009 and which the pair penetrated below this past October. It retested the lower boundary for some time and then seems to have begun declining in earnest down to this week's low of .9838. The price target from this triangle is a .9549. I never look at just one thing but when I was running some fibs late yesterday, I discovered that .9561 is the .618 retracement of .9058 (2007) to 1.0374. The two prices are very close together. The downtrend line I began drawing 12/21/10 comes in around this level as well if I extend it. I also have targets from Point & Figure charts that are lower than this although I think they're somewhat unrealistic.
What about the wedge pattern I wrote about yesterday? It's there. Wedges can occur during long downtrends. As I wrote yesterday, in a declining wedge, prices generally break upwards because the steep angle is difficult to maintain.
If one considers it as an Elliott ending diagonal then as price action narrows in the fifth wave, it breaks upwards. I've marked waves one through four which I believe ended with yesterday's high. Now this five of five should break down no further than .9805 or so. Price would then break up and out. There's a rule for ending diagonals that says wave four always ends in the territory of wave one. If it ended with yesterday's high it has not done so. Prechter and Frost's book on Elliott Wave Principle note one exception to this so I'm not sure how they can call it a rule but there you go. Otherwise this qualifies if you consider it occurring in the fifth wave down from the 1.3065 high in March 2009. OK, if that's what it is then prices will break upwards fairly soon, the pair will overtake its daily 10 SMA (currently .9907) and there will be a nice rise in prices. One has to see the break happen first, with a close above .9947. Same is true if we drop the Elliott blah-blah and just treat it as a wedge. If it does break upwards, there's a zone of resistance in this area up to parity, consisting of moving averages, price highs and lows, and fib confluence.
There's also a slight positive divergence on the daily chart although divergence is everywhere it seems and this one has been going on since last March.
Bottom line, I'm short with a tolerable stop (not too much risk even if it breaks upward). We will have to see.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
USDCAD—little bounce
In typical knee jerk reaction, the USDCAD bounced from its overnight lows of .9838 based on the non-news of Bank of Canada not raising its interest rate. .9911 has been its high so far. This past Friday's high was .9913.
I bought at .9860 earlier this morning. My thinking was that the pair had been pushed down to ridiculous lows and that there was small risk because the Jan. 2008 low of .9841 and the May 2008 low of .9820 would presumably serve as some kind of support. I also have a little calculation I do when I can't easily see support that had given me a low of .9850. I am not necessarily in the trade for the long-term. Let's face it—the actions that pass for economic policy in the USA, along with a general greenback aversion, have seriously weakened the USD. I took some quick profits but I'm leaving some of the trade on as there's a slim chance the pair could rally to at least parity or better.
Why do I say that? On the daily chart, the pair formed a wedge pattern (or maybe an ending diagonal in Elliott Wave speak). In a declining wedge, prices generally break upwards because the steep angle is difficult to maintain. Things don't usually go straight up or straight down. I don't use any pattern as a signal by itself but the signal would come from a wedge with a close outside the trend line. In this case, one would want to see a close above .9947. Obviously, I did not do that. Breakouts are tricky in Forex. There's a zone of resistance in this area up to parity, consisting of moving averages, price highs and lows, and fib confluence. There's also a slight positive divergence on the daily chart although divergence is everywhere it seems. Therefore, we will have to see.
I don't try to call bottoms or tops but sometimes with what seems like a key low or high, I will take a trade if I have other reasons for doing so, i.e. patterns, divergence, etc. These are higher risk trades by definition since one can't usually call a top or bottom. Even if all the reasoning is right for a reversal, the market can outlast the trader, slowing bleeding them to death with a series of probes lower or higher. This is why if I take these types of trades I usually have a very tight stop. I sometimes set the stop beyond my "real" stop so as to not get taken out in stop hunting but if I do that then I babysit the trade. This is not something I like to do. Babysitting tends to make the trader more anxious than they need be. In addition, you can't just pick a stop willy-nilly because an unexpected event could cause it to be hit. Thus, even when trying to keep a stop from stop hunters, one must consider the risk and not choose a level that would result in too great a loss. The best policy (and one I follow 99.98% of the time) is to set the real stop with the trade. If your analysis is good, the market will usually respect it.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I bought at .9860 earlier this morning. My thinking was that the pair had been pushed down to ridiculous lows and that there was small risk because the Jan. 2008 low of .9841 and the May 2008 low of .9820 would presumably serve as some kind of support. I also have a little calculation I do when I can't easily see support that had given me a low of .9850. I am not necessarily in the trade for the long-term. Let's face it—the actions that pass for economic policy in the USA, along with a general greenback aversion, have seriously weakened the USD. I took some quick profits but I'm leaving some of the trade on as there's a slim chance the pair could rally to at least parity or better.
Why do I say that? On the daily chart, the pair formed a wedge pattern (or maybe an ending diagonal in Elliott Wave speak). In a declining wedge, prices generally break upwards because the steep angle is difficult to maintain. Things don't usually go straight up or straight down. I don't use any pattern as a signal by itself but the signal would come from a wedge with a close outside the trend line. In this case, one would want to see a close above .9947. Obviously, I did not do that. Breakouts are tricky in Forex. There's a zone of resistance in this area up to parity, consisting of moving averages, price highs and lows, and fib confluence. There's also a slight positive divergence on the daily chart although divergence is everywhere it seems. Therefore, we will have to see.
I don't try to call bottoms or tops but sometimes with what seems like a key low or high, I will take a trade if I have other reasons for doing so, i.e. patterns, divergence, etc. These are higher risk trades by definition since one can't usually call a top or bottom. Even if all the reasoning is right for a reversal, the market can outlast the trader, slowing bleeding them to death with a series of probes lower or higher. This is why if I take these types of trades I usually have a very tight stop. I sometimes set the stop beyond my "real" stop so as to not get taken out in stop hunting but if I do that then I babysit the trade. This is not something I like to do. Babysitting tends to make the trader more anxious than they need be. In addition, you can't just pick a stop willy-nilly because an unexpected event could cause it to be hit. Thus, even when trying to keep a stop from stop hunters, one must consider the risk and not choose a level that would result in too great a loss. The best policy (and one I follow 99.98% of the time) is to set the real stop with the trade. If your analysis is good, the market will usually respect it.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—another surge
I'm still long from 1.5419.
On the strong fundamental news, the pair surged through 1.60 this morning, only to be turned back by 1.6059. With that high Cable gained 249 pips since Friday's close which is 60% of the 414 pips it gained last week. And it's only Tuesday morning. A pullback should happen at some point and I will probably add to my long position. Negative divergence persists on the three-hour chart. However, it's possible for the pair to get to 163.00/40 before that happens.
A .382 of the current move would be 1.5780, very close to other support and a buy would be in order here.
If the pair peaks with the 1.6059 and begins to drop, it makes the head and shoulder pattern more likely which I wrote about yesterday. There's a bearish engulfing candle from November's monthly chart with the high of 1.6302. If the pair definitively closes above that, the candle is invalidated.
Support is at 1.5912, 1.5810. 1.5780, 1.5740/10 (prior resistance and uptrend line from last week's move), and 1.5686/51 (fibo of most recent move up, daily 10 SMA, and strong prior resistance). Below that is a strong range from 1.5567 to 1.5506 made up of fib confluence, moving averages, and price.
Resistance is at 1.6100, 1.6228, 1.6302 (the November high which was also the top of a monthly bearish engulfing candle), 1.6300 and 1.6348.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the strong fundamental news, the pair surged through 1.60 this morning, only to be turned back by 1.6059. With that high Cable gained 249 pips since Friday's close which is 60% of the 414 pips it gained last week. And it's only Tuesday morning. A pullback should happen at some point and I will probably add to my long position. Negative divergence persists on the three-hour chart. However, it's possible for the pair to get to 163.00/40 before that happens.
A .382 of the current move would be 1.5780, very close to other support and a buy would be in order here.
If the pair peaks with the 1.6059 and begins to drop, it makes the head and shoulder pattern more likely which I wrote about yesterday. There's a bearish engulfing candle from November's monthly chart with the high of 1.6302. If the pair definitively closes above that, the candle is invalidated.
Support is at 1.5912, 1.5810. 1.5780, 1.5740/10 (prior resistance and uptrend line from last week's move), and 1.5686/51 (fibo of most recent move up, daily 10 SMA, and strong prior resistance). Below that is a strong range from 1.5567 to 1.5506 made up of fib confluence, moving averages, and price.
Resistance is at 1.6100, 1.6228, 1.6302 (the November high which was also the top of a monthly bearish engulfing candle), 1.6300 and 1.6348.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—rallying to resistance
Instead of waiting for the rally, I decided to go long yesterday at 109.85 when it looked as though the 109.58, hammer low would hold. It was accompanied by an RSI failure swing on the hourly chart.
Now, though, it has rallied to resistance and I took much of the trade off the table for +80 pips. I've been interested in shorting this pair since last week. On the daily chart, Friday was a hanging man candle (spike high of 110.99) and yesterday was a bearish engulfing candle for an evening star formation. This suggests a drop is at hand. If the pair closes above 110.99, the evening star will be invalidated.
I've been analyzing this as an ABC correction with the C leg targeting 111.09 or 1.618 of the A leg. 110.99 was pretty close. Its high so far this morning is 110.78 and the last closed, hourly candle had an upper shadow. This hints the higher prices are being rejected. The angle of ascent is also very steep. I'm almost ready to reverse and go short. If I'm wrong, my stop can be tight and it won't eat up all the profits of the long trade I'm in.
Support is at 109.85, 109.58, 1.0895 (prior resistance), 108.50 and 108.00. Below that is a zone of support from 107.86 down to 106.83, then 106.24 and 105.83. If the pair manages a close above 111.24/33, there's resistance at 111.68/97, 112.52 from the 200 daily SMA and 112.20/44.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Now, though, it has rallied to resistance and I took much of the trade off the table for +80 pips. I've been interested in shorting this pair since last week. On the daily chart, Friday was a hanging man candle (spike high of 110.99) and yesterday was a bearish engulfing candle for an evening star formation. This suggests a drop is at hand. If the pair closes above 110.99, the evening star will be invalidated.
I've been analyzing this as an ABC correction with the C leg targeting 111.09 or 1.618 of the A leg. 110.99 was pretty close. Its high so far this morning is 110.78 and the last closed, hourly candle had an upper shadow. This hints the higher prices are being rejected. The angle of ascent is also very steep. I'm almost ready to reverse and go short. If I'm wrong, my stop can be tight and it won't eat up all the profits of the long trade I'm in.
Support is at 109.85, 109.58, 1.0895 (prior resistance), 108.50 and 108.00. Below that is a zone of support from 107.86 down to 106.83, then 106.24 and 105.83. If the pair manages a close above 111.24/33, there's resistance at 111.68/97, 112.52 from the 200 daily SMA and 112.20/44.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—at strong resistance
It's true that good bond auctions and Trichet's silver tongue last week gave Euro a good boost up but one has to ask the fundamental question—what has really changed? Has the Eurozone economy suddenly become stable and growing? Some would argue they're practicing austerity and we're printing dollars so the pair should rise. This is a less than compelling argument. There is still great uncertainty. OK, enough with the fundamentals.
Euro's bounce brought it to a high so far this morning of 13429. This is near strong resistance. The 100 SMA is at 1.3426 and 1.3454 was the Jan. 14 high. 1.3500 is of course the big psychological and people holding longs will want to take profits. I'm planning to sell at some point. What I'd like to see is momentum failure. Using RSI, that might be a failure swing.
Looking at the daily chart puts this bounce into some perspective. One thing that looks positive on the chart is that the pair dipped below the daily uptrend line, rallied and closed back above. This suggests a fake out. It retested the line with yesterday's low of 1.3244. This was bullish. The current daily candle looks strong. Note that there was positive divergence on the daily chart and this rally is resolving that.
One can also see the resistance on the daily chart with fibs and prior highs. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the pair could be in a flat correction that began with the November low of 1.2969. I've labeled it on the chart below. Price behavior is also taking place within a downward sloping channel, highlighted in yellow on the chart below. The low of this channel is around 1.2850, near the prior low. Its boundaries are the 1.3498 December high and the 1.2874 January low. If Euro broke below then the price target is 1.2296. You'd see some smiling bears then. On the three-hour chart (not shown) there's a bull flag which targets 1.3497—near the current level so this adds to the resistance even though this is a minimum price target.
Resistance is at the current level and then 1.3500/11, 1.3630/45 (price and fib), and 1.3786 (11/22/10 high). Support is at 1.3380, 1.3294, 1.3244 and then a zone down to 1.3100. Below that is 1.3000, 1.2969 and 1.2874. If that broke, then the plunge would probably begin in earnest. Lots of room between here and there, though, and there would be rallies and reactions galore.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Euro's bounce brought it to a high so far this morning of 13429. This is near strong resistance. The 100 SMA is at 1.3426 and 1.3454 was the Jan. 14 high. 1.3500 is of course the big psychological and people holding longs will want to take profits. I'm planning to sell at some point. What I'd like to see is momentum failure. Using RSI, that might be a failure swing.
Looking at the daily chart puts this bounce into some perspective. One thing that looks positive on the chart is that the pair dipped below the daily uptrend line, rallied and closed back above. This suggests a fake out. It retested the line with yesterday's low of 1.3244. This was bullish. The current daily candle looks strong. Note that there was positive divergence on the daily chart and this rally is resolving that.
One can also see the resistance on the daily chart with fibs and prior highs. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the pair could be in a flat correction that began with the November low of 1.2969. I've labeled it on the chart below. Price behavior is also taking place within a downward sloping channel, highlighted in yellow on the chart below. The low of this channel is around 1.2850, near the prior low. Its boundaries are the 1.3498 December high and the 1.2874 January low. If Euro broke below then the price target is 1.2296. You'd see some smiling bears then. On the three-hour chart (not shown) there's a bull flag which targets 1.3497—near the current level so this adds to the resistance even though this is a minimum price target.
Resistance is at the current level and then 1.3500/11, 1.3630/45 (price and fib), and 1.3786 (11/22/10 high). Support is at 1.3380, 1.3294, 1.3244 and then a zone down to 1.3100. Below that is 1.3000, 1.2969 and 1.2874. If that broke, then the plunge would probably begin in earnest. Lots of room between here and there, though, and there would be rallies and reactions galore.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Weekly—Highs and lows
Here are the highs, lows, and closes for last week:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—dropping
I missed the short in this pair as it happened late Friday and I didn't analyze the pair over the weekend where I might have gotten in earlier today. This happens—some trades get away. However, it may retest the high.
When I wrote last week about this being the C leg of an ABC correction, I wrote that the potential for 1.618 of the A leg was 111.09. The pair reached 110.99 before falling. On the hourly chart, there's a low this morning of 109.58. This was a hammer candle and support should hold. A close below targets 1.0895 (prior resistance) and then 108.50 and 108.00. Below that is a zone of support from 107.86 down to 106.83, then 106.24 and 105.83.
Resistance is 110.00, 110.99, and 111.68/97 (strong).
I'll watch for a rally in this pair.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
When I wrote last week about this being the C leg of an ABC correction, I wrote that the potential for 1.618 of the A leg was 111.09. The pair reached 110.99 before falling. On the hourly chart, there's a low this morning of 109.58. This was a hammer candle and support should hold. A close below targets 1.0895 (prior resistance) and then 108.50 and 108.00. Below that is a zone of support from 107.86 down to 106.83, then 106.24 and 105.83.
Resistance is 110.00, 110.99, and 111.68/97 (strong).
I'll watch for a rally in this pair.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
US holiday
Today is Martin Luther King day so the market action is likely to be lighter than usual and there may be price swings because of illiquidity later in the morning as London wraps up.
GBPUSD--resistance
Last week was a great week for Cable longs. The pair moved from a low of 1.5475 to 1.5889 in above average volatility. It overcame strong resistance at 1.5651.
As of Thursday evening I was holding three long positions from 1.5419, 1.5602, and 1.5750 respectively. I closed out the latter two on Friday afternoon for 1.5865 and 1.5827 for a total of +340 pips. Even though I wrote on Thursday that there was little in the way of the pair moving to 1.5912, the weekly high on Friday of 1.5889 was very close and I wanted to book profits. I still have my long from 1.5419 and may close it as well. I can always come back in on a retracement.
This morning the pair has touched a high of 1.5915 in the last hour. There is negative divergence on the three hour chart. After its strong rise last week, a pullback would help the pair get more energy (if there's any to be gotten) and then it could try again for 1.6000, a big psychological number. 1.60 would also be an interesting peak from a weekly point of view in that there's a potential head and shoulders pattern with the head at 1.6302 (the top of the bearish engulfing candle from November) and the neck at 1.5295 (September low).
Resistance is at I have a price target of 1.6100 coming from a three-hour point and figure chart. The downtrend line on the weekly chart is coming in at 1.6228. So resistance is 1.5912 (prior high), 1.5960, 1.6000, 1.6100, 1.6228 (weekly downtrend line), and 1.6300 (the November high which was also the top of a monthly bearish engulfing candle.)
Support is at 1.5810. 1.5740/10 (prior resistance and uptrend line from last week's move), 1.5686/51 (fibo of most recent move up, daily 10 SMA, and strong prior resistance). Below that is a strong range from 1.5567 to 1.5506 made up of fib confluence, moving averages, and price.
So the potential is there for strong moves in either direction. Watch for signs of faltering as it moves towards the mid-1.59 range to 1.60 for the possibility of shorting.
Here's the three-hour chart. Note the overbought state of RSI and the negative divergence.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
As of Thursday evening I was holding three long positions from 1.5419, 1.5602, and 1.5750 respectively. I closed out the latter two on Friday afternoon for 1.5865 and 1.5827 for a total of +340 pips. Even though I wrote on Thursday that there was little in the way of the pair moving to 1.5912, the weekly high on Friday of 1.5889 was very close and I wanted to book profits. I still have my long from 1.5419 and may close it as well. I can always come back in on a retracement.
This morning the pair has touched a high of 1.5915 in the last hour. There is negative divergence on the three hour chart. After its strong rise last week, a pullback would help the pair get more energy (if there's any to be gotten) and then it could try again for 1.6000, a big psychological number. 1.60 would also be an interesting peak from a weekly point of view in that there's a potential head and shoulders pattern with the head at 1.6302 (the top of the bearish engulfing candle from November) and the neck at 1.5295 (September low).
Resistance is at I have a price target of 1.6100 coming from a three-hour point and figure chart. The downtrend line on the weekly chart is coming in at 1.6228. So resistance is 1.5912 (prior high), 1.5960, 1.6000, 1.6100, 1.6228 (weekly downtrend line), and 1.6300 (the November high which was also the top of a monthly bearish engulfing candle.)
Support is at 1.5810. 1.5740/10 (prior resistance and uptrend line from last week's move), 1.5686/51 (fibo of most recent move up, daily 10 SMA, and strong prior resistance). Below that is a strong range from 1.5567 to 1.5506 made up of fib confluence, moving averages, and price.
So the potential is there for strong moves in either direction. Watch for signs of faltering as it moves towards the mid-1.59 range to 1.60 for the possibility of shorting.
Here's the three-hour chart. Note the overbought state of RSI and the negative divergence.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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