EURUSD—doing absolutely nothing

This pair is at the bottom of the daily bear flag I’ve been writing about this week Go long? Go short? Whatever, because the market is treading water, waiting for the release of Non-farm payroll this morning. This is the way it usually goes with these major news releases.

The 200 simple moving average (SMA) that I wrote about yesterday is at 1.4252 this morning, so its underneath the flag boundary at 1.4303. Both are lower than where the pair is currently at 1.4327 at 4:20 AM EST and both are significant support levels. The flag is big enough that if it bounces from the bottom one could get off a nice trade. Resistance is at 1.4255, 1.4447, and the upper boundary at 1.4500 which is also a psychological, round number level.

Probably best to avoid trading until after the news comes out. Here’s the daily chart.


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—stalling

The pair broke below some nice support at 1.5922 so perhaps it will continue down for a bit. Next support levels are at 1.5880, 1.5830 (December low), and then 1.5763. Below that, it could fall to the bottom of the downward channel (or bull flag for the still optimistic). Before that happens, however, or a rise for that matter, it needs to quit its loitering. Lights, camera, action!

I shorted at 1.6001 and just took partial profits at +92 pips. Since it’s near support, the pair could bounce a bit. However, both price and RSI have recently broken below their uptrend lines on the three-hour chart. This hints at additional weakness. If it does bounce, I may add to my short position depending on what price is doing. What I mean when I write that is that I’ll be looking at candle behavior—e.g. upper shadows hint that higher prices are being rejected—and price patterns.

Now that the BOE has published its interest rate decision—no change to rates or plans for quantitative easing. In other words, business as usual because after all, it’s worked so well so far, right?—perhaps the picture will become a bit clearer.

Here’s the three-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—found support?

I shorted this pair at 1.4928 on Monday. Since then, it dropped to a low of 1.4766 but seems to be bouncing a bit. There’s a rather impressive hammer on the hourly chart. That price level is support going back to December 2008. While it looks as though the Swiss Central Bank has at least temporarily abandoned its intervention efforts for the Swissy, I’m not comfortable leaving a lot on the table. I took partial profits at +100 pips this morning and will probably close out the rest of the trade today, depending on price action. Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—still in bear flag

The remainder of my short trade from .4122 stopped out just above breakeven for +5 pips.

The pair is still in the bear flag I’ve been writing about (or upward channel for the optimists). It’s currently hovering near the midpoint. There’s no trade for me until it approaches the top near 1.4490 or the bottom near 1.4280. Just below the 1.4280, you can see the 200 SMA coming in on the daily chart, currently at 1.4248. If the pair breaks below this, bears will pile on. For now, the struggle continues.

Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—maybe a retest of support

My short from .9127 stopped out at .9175 for a loss of 48 pips.

The pair climbed to .9267 yesterday but fell overnight to a low of .9183. It may fall a bit more to about .9160. There’s a confluence of support at this level— the early week highs, the bottom of the downward sloping channel it’s currently in, and the 55 EMA on the hourly chart which has served as rough support on the hourly chart since December. At that level, one could try a long, depending on price behavior. What’s the upside potential? Some of my price target calculations show .9500 but to get there it’s going to have to fight through resistance at .9267 (yesterday’s high), .9300 (psychological round number), .9322/28 (October and November highs), .9400/.9406, (psychological round number and November high). That’s quite a lot of resistance, clustered fairly close together. Momentum, as represented by RSI, is going to have to pick up for price to have an unfettered climb.

Currently, support is at .9160, .9110 (prior support and close to the round number of .9100), .8945/85 (prior support/resistance), and ultimately .8744, the December low.

Here’s the hourly chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

December Trade Results—Up 2,092 pips

In October I began posting my monthly results from the trades I blog about. For the month of December, the results are a net gain of +2,092 pips. (For October, I was up 1,994 pips; for November, +2,054 pips). I’m a little surprised that I did better than in November because December was a short month for trading and I took very few trades after the 15th of the month. As usual, most of the gains came from a very few pairs with EURJPY contributing 967 pips and GBPCHF contributing 500 pips.

In some of the trades, I took partial profits. I’m still not sure about the best way to report those so I just lump them together, e.g. if I closed out half at 50 and the rest at 100, I count 150. If anyone has a better idea for how to report these, please post a comment. I also had some trades I blogged about that stopped at breakeven. I didn’t count these in the trades I list.

December was another good month. All through the fall months, there have been numerous trading opportunities. A trader’s job is to clearly look at our charts and identify these opportunities. The analysis I do is what allows me to identify them. I work very hard at my analysis. Trading is hard work. Anyone that says it isn’t is either (a) delusional or (b) lying.

My percentage of wins is very good lately but I don’t expect that to continue each month. As readers know, I’m fanatical about my entry points and this contributes to stronger win ratios, I guess. Still, in many months, I have a smaller percentage of wins but still can achieve good profits because I do follow the old rule of cutting losses short and letting winners run. It took me a couple of years to get the hang of that but it’s what makes trading profitable. I don’t show the trades where I broke even but these would have been losses had I not been quick to move my stop. I was probably somewhat over quick to move stops in December since I was worried all month about the lowered liquidity.

However, I have had losing months in the past and I will have them again. Believe me, when I do, you’ll know about them because I show my real trades here. This is a lot different from people that report their results after the fact or tell you that you need some mystical or magical approach that will only cost you a few thousand dollars. This is baloney as far as I’ve been able to determine. People are successful at trading when they exercise discipline and follow good rules for trading.

Here’s the detail of the December trades. Each of them was blogged about when it took place and you could see them on the charts I posted.

Currency pair, total net gain or loss in pips, and the detailed trades

AUDUSD +80 total (+50, +5, +20, and +5)
EURJPY +967 total (+43, +264, +180, +360, +120)
EURUSD +201 total (+64, +65, +93, +29, -50)
GBPCHF +500 total (+80, +170, +200, +50)
USDCAD +344 total (+50, +84, +160, +10, +20, +20)

EURUSD—Short from 1.4421

I shorted yesterday at 1.4421 (I actually got in first at slightly better than that at 1.4435 but moved my stop to breakeven too quickly and the market took me out—more about that a bit later). All my reasons for shorting were still there so I piled back in. I took some profits at +25 pips and have my stop at somewhat better than breakeven now.

The pair fell to 1.4283 overnight where it stalled out. It’s now climbing. Resistance is at 1.4400, 1.4485, and 1.4500. If it makes it through 1.45, the Euro bulls will be very happy. However, the pair needs to close above the bear flag on the daily chart (1.4520) that I wrote about yesterday before it proves out as a buying opportunity. Not that that little detail would stop a determined Euro bull.

Support is at 1.4283 (duh), the low this morning. Next support is at 1.4274, 1.4217, and then a seriously strong support range of anywhere from 1.4070 up to 1.4192.

Remember, if it breaks (and ideally closes on the daily chart) below the flag (1.4274), the length of the flagpole suggests a drop into the 1.34 range. That would make a Euro bear more than happy.

Now about being stopped out on my first short yesterday….Obviously I was too cautious in moving my stop to breakeven and a little spike took me out. How often do those little spikes happen? Too often for most traders and it’s annoying when it does. All you can do is what I did. Quickly verify that your reasons for your trade are still valid and go back in. Could I have been a little less cautious? Undoubtedly. If the pair had started to plummet, it would have done so without me being in. Well, those things happen. I probably do err on the side of caution on moving stops to breakeven but my overall philosophy is that if I’ve picked my entry point well, I can usually depend on the trade going the way I expect it to without those silly little spikes. If there is one, I know why I got in the trade and can quickly get back in most of the time. This is why you need to keep a journal, especially when you’re new at trading (I’ve been doing this several years and I still keep a journal). All it consists of is printing off the chart when I make the trade and jotting my reasons for doing so right on the chart. Once a week or so, I gather all these little charts up and put them in a three-ring binder. I also write out my chart interpretations on the weekly charts so I’m ready to begin my trading week.

I can’t stress this enough. Journal your trades!

OK—back to the Euro. On the hourly chart, after the low at the bear flag bottom, you can see there is a candle formation known as “Three White Soldiers.” These are three white candles, each with a higher close than the prior one. These can predict more strength, particularly if they occur after a price low. We’re just going to have to see what happens. But they're enough to stop me from adding to my short here.

Here’s the hourly chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—didn’t make it through yesterday’s resistance

The remainder of my position stopped out at +5 pips after the pair failed to make it through its resistance zone. I just bought again based on the hourly chart where there’s a hammer candle. You need a price drop for this to be valid which there was. The stop can be just below the low of that candle which was .8926. Alternatively, the stop could be below the upward trending support line on the daily chart. This is at a significant horizontal support level as well of .8850.

This pair often moves slowly—it can be like watching paint dry. From 2003 until 2007 it stayed in roughly a 300 pip range which tells you something. A trade can be very profitable because of the higher value per pip ($16.05 per standard lot versus $10.00 for EURUSD). Of course, that cuts both ways if you get into a losing trade. You can always reduce your position size down when trading this pair.

Here’s the hourly chart:


On the daily chart (depending on how today’s candle finally completes) there may be an evening star candle formation in process. This three-candle formation (first a long bullish candle, then a doji or spinning top, and finally a bearish candle that closes well into the first bullish one) is bearish. However, the day isn’t over yet and there’s no way to know what it will do until it is.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—resistance

It looks as though the conjunction of the trend lines I wrote about yesterday served as good support. The pair climbed through some resistance at .8968 but is currently in another resistance zone. If it clears this one, it should be able to reach .9045 with little trouble. I took some profits off the table at +50 pips and the rest of the position has a stop at profit. Here’s the hourly chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—speaking about flags

I wrote about the bear flag on the Euro daily chart and a look at the GBPUSD daily chart shows a bull flag that either is or isn’t going to pan out. I’ve outlined it in red on the chart.

What’s interesting about it is that there was a break above the flag, then a throwback (a return to something after an upward breakout) and now it’s hovering at the breakout point. I compressed the chart so you can’t see that the last two daily candles had long upper shadows, hinting that the pair is rejecting higher prices. Are those two days representative of anything? That I’m unsure of since two days ago was the New Year and yesterday probably saw many traders scratching their heads.

Regardless, a return to a flag usually hurts subsequent performance. This pair needs closer watching on small time frames. Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—bear flag on daily

On the daily chart, Euro touched the top of a channel at 1.4485 this morning. This channel could be a bear flag, a pattern that often forms during a decline, giving everyone a chance to catch their breath before the decline resumes. A bear flag could result from profit taking after the rise from the Euro’s low last month of 1.4217—that’s not a lot of profit but the explanation sounds reasonable, right? This is why I usually don’t ask why. Many explanations sound reasonable, but who really knows why these minor (if it is minor) fluctuations occur? If it is a flag and it breaks below, the length of the flag to date suggests we could see a low of 1.34. Hooah!

In any case, 1.4485 was a reasonable place for a short if you’re bearish on the Euro. I missed it and while I might go short even now at 72 points below that point, a look at the hourly chart suggests waiting. The reason is that it looks as though it might be at the bottom of a short-term range and so, perhaps, I’ll get another chance to short at a better price. A break above that range might suggest a buy. If it doesn’t go back up, will I short? Yes. I’d wait for a definitive break below the flag on the daily chart that I wrote about above.

Here are the hourly and daily charts:




© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—ranging for now

After a healthy climb during morning hours (EST) yesterday, AUDUSD is in a narrow range of .9099 to .9163. On the three-hour chart, RSI is still overbought but on the one-hour chart, it has dropped below it a bit. For RSI, overbought is usually considered greater than 70 and oversold less than 30.

When I blogged about the weekly chart yesterday, I noted that I consider the pair had completed a second wave at .9406 so it should be beginning a third wave down. Intellectually, it’s a bit hard for me to swallow since I think things in general look as though they’re improving in the global economy (and if they’re not, my oh my we’re going to have an interesting year.) One could say, then, that I’m falling into the bullish sentiment that has accompanied this pair for some time. Still, the chart is the chart, and I can only trade the chart the way I interpret it. As a result, I took a small short yesterday at .9127 which is slightly underwater as I write this at minus 13 pips. Now that it has retraced more than .618 of the recent downward move, I’m a little antsy about it but I’ll stop out soon enough if it was the wrong trade to take.

There is some negative divergence between price and RSI (price going up; RSI going down) which is bearish.

The long lower shadow of the doji on the hourly chart seems to hint that the pair is rejecting lower price levels. The low of that candle was .9099—a minor support zone. We’ll just have to see where it goes. If I’m stopped out, I may reverse depending on candle behavior. One reason (in addition to the bullish sentiment) is that there’s an ascending triangle formation. This is present, with and without the doji. Ascending triangles often break to the upside.

Here’s the one-hour chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—touched horizontal and trend line support

Both a horizontal support line and a trend line from October 2008 provided support for this pair at its low of .8857. The bounce since then, though, has been less than robust at only 56 pips, less than the daily average true range (ATR). Wells Wilder developed the ATR based on an average of something he called true range over time. You can use it as a measure of volatility—i.e. it rises with high volatility. This pair can be sluggish and I usually avoid it for that reason. However, especially at key support or resistance points you can sometimes get off a nice trade.

On my Point and Figure (P&F) chart, I’m still projecting a rise to at least 9500 so it would appear to have been a good buy at support. I use P&F charts to get rid of some of the noise that normal charts display. They use only price and not time. A close much below .8820/50 on the daily and/or the three-hour chart would hint at more weakness. Above that, however, there’s still a chance that price could appreciate.

Here’s the daily candle chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—interesting only in that it’s dropping

This pair is interesting only because it has been dropping. For most of 2009, the Swiss National Bank (its central bank) has been intervening to prevent the Swiss franc from gaining against the Euro. For example, in March the bank intervened after the dropped to 1.4578 and it seems to have intervened twice since then, both times around the 1.50 level. However, in December that seems to have changed when it clearly dropped below the 1.50 level. I shorted at 1.4928 and this morning the pair dropped to 1.4812. Has the central bank given up? Or are they just holding off to see what happens? In any case, my short is profit stopped. After the current price, support levels are at 1.4752 and 1.4578. If they do intervene again, the pair will shoot up fast. Here’s the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—at interesting levels

I haven’t looked at this pair in a while so let’s see what’s going on with the longer-term picture.

The weekly chart still supports an EW count of a second wave having completed at .9406 in November. If this is true (and no EW count can be proven as true until after the fact unfortunately) then we’re in the beginning of a third wave down. As Prechter and Frost say in their book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior, EW practitioners live for third waves because “third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad….[and]…usually generate the greatest volume and price movement.”

What I marked as the second wave, retraced much of wave one and with the strong upward movement convinced many that there is nowhere to go but up. This is typical for second waves. It also divided into a flat with its 3-3-5 count and was an expanded flat since C completed so far beyond A. To prove it wasn’t a second wave requires for it to push above .9851 so there’s a ways to go and it’s not a very enticing short if that’s all we had to go buy.

For the last eight weeks, the pair has been in a downward channel, forming what looks like a bullish flag. but its current price puts it at .618 retracement of the latest down move. Here a short looks more attractive since it’s at the top of this channel and the stop can be tight.

One concern I have from the weekly chart is that RSI is not falling very much. As Connie Brown wrote in her book, Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, an asset that is still in a bull market won’t drop below certain levels, usually 40-50, in the oscillator. That’s what this pair is doing—not dropping too far. There is a lot of bullish sentiment for the AUDUSD. Australia is in a good position to take advantage of any continuing growth in the Pacific region since it’s rich in commodities. Their central bank has also raised its interest rate twice in recent months.

Any short here would have to have a stop above .9100 and I’d probably go above .9150 because the stock market looks like it’s going to have an optimistic start to the year so risk aversion will be down. To go long, I’d wait for a definitive break above the current channel.

Here’s the weekly chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—dropped again

Both my long positions from December 29 stopped out at +20 pips.

I’m inclined to walk away from this pair since I’m getting tired of its narrow little ranges where it doesn’t seem to really go anywhere after its first burst up in October which is so last year. Looking at the daily chart, you can see how it formed a coil which it seems to have broken away from and, alas, in a downward direction. Its most recent low was 1.0367 and it’s edging back to that level now. You also see how it has broken three uptrend lines since October. Three is usually the magic number for me.

The purple lines on the daily chart are from calculations I made back in October for this pair and it barely began to graze them before stumbling. So is it basing as I’ve maintained or was this the final death rattle before it resumes its drop? That, dear friends, is the question.

If I continue my stance that the pair is basing and if I decide to be aggressive, I could try a small long as it approached its low. However, this is risky because there isn’t much encouragement to do so. Momentum, as measured by RSI, needs to stay above 36 for this to be defensible—that is, if I went long and it dropped below that level on the daily chart, or drops below 1.0340 in price, I’d get out of the trade. The 1.0340 is approximately where the long term uptrend line from November 2007 comes in as I wrote last week. It also gives some wiggle room below the low of 1.0367. If you’re a new trader, I would stay away from this pair for now.

Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.