Friday, June 11, 2010
AUDUSD—at resistance
I have one long position from .8175 which is nicely up. However this is serious resistance in the .8495 area. If it can cleanly break above .8500, I'll probably add a small position. .8551 will confirm the double bottom.
Resistance is at.8495, .8523/35 and .8595. Support is at .8400, .8375, .8258, .8195, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance is at.8495, .8523/35 and .8595. Support is at .8400, .8375, .8258, .8195, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURCHF—update
Closed the long from 1.3822 for +100 pips. That still leaves me one position long. On what should be a lazy June Friday the pair decides to move up?
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—not much movement
It's difficult to get excited about anything involving the Euro and the EURJPY is no exception. There has been little movement and the pair is trading at its lowest levels since 2001. I tried a long position at 110.61 yesterday and it's not doing much. A look at the daily shows shows a well-formed hammer Tuesday at support and it's been nudging up a bit since then. There's also positive divergence on the daily chart. These small ranges will end at some point and a break below the hammer will hint at yet new lows. A break above 111.50 would be bad news to those who are short.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURCHF—probing higher
I think that given the overall pressure on the Euro and the strong downtrend in this pair that it's unlikely the trend is going to reverse upwards. However it is making higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. The overall strategy should be to sell strength, especially as it moves towards 1.3950 or so.
I have two long positions, one from 1.3787 and one from 1.3822. The latter one is up about 50 pips as I write and I am probably going to close that one out. I'm tightening the stop on the other and may close and reverse at some point. I doubt very much that even if the Swiss National Bank were to intervene that they would do so on a Friday, especially as the day begins to get on.
Resistance is at 1.3943, 1.4000, 1.4044, and 1.4179. Support is at 1.3860, 1.3816, 1.3774, and 1.3734.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I have two long positions, one from 1.3787 and one from 1.3822. The latter one is up about 50 pips as I write and I am probably going to close that one out. I'm tightening the stop on the other and may close and reverse at some point. I doubt very much that even if the Swiss National Bank were to intervene that they would do so on a Friday, especially as the day begins to get on.
Resistance is at 1.3943, 1.4000, 1.4044, and 1.4179. Support is at 1.3860, 1.3816, 1.3774, and 1.3734.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
EURCHF—update
I took partial profits at +50 pips from the long position I established at 1.3787. It's pushing upwards but the Euro in general is still under a lot of pressure.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USD Index—at resistance
As I pointed out in my blog post May 6, the dollar could go to its downtrend line on the weekly chart before getting pushed back. It's close. If one wants to stay with the simple argument (as opposed to all the gobbledy-gook that passes for analysis in some places) one could take the approach that it may head down for a while now. If it starts to get serious about staying below 87.50, this is the most likely scenario.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—still in the 1.20 area
The pair reached a high of 1.2096 this morning but real movement is still lacking. Since June 4th it hasn't been above 1.21 so it ne again today. This won't last forever. Once the pair starts to move, I'll post a chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—near resistance
I still have one long position from .8175.
The pair has climbed to a high of .8443 this morning but has fallen back some from here to a low, so far, of .8409. I think there may be another push up as long as momentum holds. However, as I wrote yesterday, there is serious resistance at .8495 and the pair may be hesitating here because sellers are already piling in—most traders are impatient about waiting for support or resistance. Because of this I took some partial profits at +250 pips. If it can cleanly break above .8500, I'll probably add a small position. .8551 will confirm the double bottom.
Resistance is at .8443, .8495, .8523/35 and .8595. Support is at .8356, .8258, .8195, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has climbed to a high of .8443 this morning but has fallen back some from here to a low, so far, of .8409. I think there may be another push up as long as momentum holds. However, as I wrote yesterday, there is serious resistance at .8495 and the pair may be hesitating here because sellers are already piling in—most traders are impatient about waiting for support or resistance. Because of this I took some partial profits at +250 pips. If it can cleanly break above .8500, I'll probably add a small position. .8551 will confirm the double bottom.
Resistance is at .8443, .8495, .8523/35 and .8595. Support is at .8356, .8258, .8195, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURCHF—no more interventions?
It looks as though the Swiss National Bank has decided to back off on the interventions, perhaps because they weren't doing any good. However, they're sitting on a great pile of Swiss francs in their central bank with their reserves increasing from 153.6 billion to 232.4 billion CHF in May. So maybe they're planning on doing something with that money. Especially now that it looks as though the Euro might be trying to base and, in any case, should correct upwards for the time being.
EURCHF hit a new low at 1.3734 yesterday with a doji candle. The doji would be more impressive if it was at a prior support level but there's nothing to do about that. However, there is positive divergence on the hourly, three-hour, and daily charts. And of course traders are worried about the possible intervention.
More to come but longs right now can have a tight stop and I am willing to try a small long position. However this is not a trade that I can highly recommend as the downward pressure is intense. Selling into rallies is a way one can go but the stop must be very tight because of the pesky intervention risk. Inexperienced traders should stay away from this pair. Take a look at the monthly chart and you'll see what I mean. It's not going straight down but it's pretty gruesome.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURCHF hit a new low at 1.3734 yesterday with a doji candle. The doji would be more impressive if it was at a prior support level but there's nothing to do about that. However, there is positive divergence on the hourly, three-hour, and daily charts. And of course traders are worried about the possible intervention.
More to come but longs right now can have a tight stop and I am willing to try a small long position. However this is not a trade that I can highly recommend as the downward pressure is intense. Selling into rallies is a way one can go but the stop must be very tight because of the pesky intervention risk. Inexperienced traders should stay away from this pair. Take a look at the monthly chart and you'll see what I mean. It's not going straight down but it's pretty gruesome.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
AUDUSD—rally
This pair is rallying nicely for now. I have two longs from .8175.
While the pair is going to run into some resistance at .8350/66, the more serious resistance is .8495. However that still leaves a lot of climbing room for it. On the daily chart (not shown) there is the potential for a double bottom. The pair needs to climb above .8551 for that to be confirmed. Should it be comfirmed, price could get above .9000 but it's premature to be thinking about that. The inverted head and shoulders pattern (confirmed at .8218) has a price target of at least .8354 and the pair is close to that now.
Resistance is at .8266/76, .8354/64, .8495, . Support is at .8195, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
While the pair is going to run into some resistance at .8350/66, the more serious resistance is .8495. However that still leaves a lot of climbing room for it. On the daily chart (not shown) there is the potential for a double bottom. The pair needs to climb above .8551 for that to be confirmed. Should it be comfirmed, price could get above .9000 but it's premature to be thinking about that. The inverted head and shoulders pattern (confirmed at .8218) has a price target of at least .8354 and the pair is close to that now.
Resistance is at .8266/76, .8354/64, .8495, . Support is at .8195, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here’s the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—rally
The Euro has gotten above its little range of between 1.1876 and 1.1992, reaching a high of 1.2030 so far this morning. My long from 1.2167 was profit-stopped out at 1.2027 for +140 pips. My long from 1.2061 was profit-stopped out at 1.2008 for +53 pips. I may go long, depending on price behavior in the next few minutres.
The rally is well deserved after the Euro's tumble. However, the pair must maintain its push into the 1.20 area and hopefully get above that. It's positive that at least so far it has managed to push through the 1.1992 level where sellers would have entered. Momentum on the hourly chart, as measured by RSI, is pushing towards 70. If it holds you can expect higher highs but any longs should use tight stops. I do not believe this is the end of the Euro's decline but it does need a rally.
Resistance is at 1.2080, 1.2153, 1.2216, 1.2326, 1.2453, and 1.2885. That's quite a gap between 1.2453 and 1.2885 but there's no need to calculate shorter term resistance in between those two unless the Euro can climb higher that 1.22 or so. Support is at 1.1992, 1.1876/60, 1.1800, 1.1638, and 1.1500.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The rally is well deserved after the Euro's tumble. However, the pair must maintain its push into the 1.20 area and hopefully get above that. It's positive that at least so far it has managed to push through the 1.1992 level where sellers would have entered. Momentum on the hourly chart, as measured by RSI, is pushing towards 70. If it holds you can expect higher highs but any longs should use tight stops. I do not believe this is the end of the Euro's decline but it does need a rally.
Resistance is at 1.2080, 1.2153, 1.2216, 1.2326, 1.2453, and 1.2885. That's quite a gap between 1.2453 and 1.2885 but there's no need to calculate shorter term resistance in between those two unless the Euro can climb higher that 1.22 or so. Support is at 1.1992, 1.1876/60, 1.1800, 1.1638, and 1.1500.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—rally
My long from 1.4403 profit-stopped out at 1.4418 for +15 pips. Clearly, I was a bit aggressive in moving the stop but as I pointed out yesterday, this trade was no sure thing (not that any trade is) and I had a small position.
The pair isn't out of the woods. Although it has broken above the short-term downtrend line on the three-hour chart, it is at resistance from the June 7 spike high of 1.4563. As a result, I'd expect to see sellers coming in here and am looking to take a short position. The overall move from the May low looks corrective (actually, it doesn't look corrective so much as a pair hanging on for dear life). On the daily chart (not shown) it could be a bear flag. But these things can surprise you and if the pair breaks above 1.4682 then the picture becomes much more bullish. 1.46 would be a psychological victory as well. As I blogged yesterday, the doji low was near support and so far the rally is holding. I would like to see momentum falter on the shorter-term charts.
Support is at 1.4395/89, 1.4346, 1.4260 and 1.4228. Resistance is at 1.4532, 1.4563, 1.4682, and 1.4714.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair isn't out of the woods. Although it has broken above the short-term downtrend line on the three-hour chart, it is at resistance from the June 7 spike high of 1.4563. As a result, I'd expect to see sellers coming in here and am looking to take a short position. The overall move from the May low looks corrective (actually, it doesn't look corrective so much as a pair hanging on for dear life). On the daily chart (not shown) it could be a bear flag. But these things can surprise you and if the pair breaks above 1.4682 then the picture becomes much more bullish. 1.46 would be a psychological victory as well. As I blogged yesterday, the doji low was near support and so far the rally is holding. I would like to see momentum falter on the shorter-term charts.
Support is at 1.4395/89, 1.4346, 1.4260 and 1.4228. Resistance is at 1.4532, 1.4563, 1.4682, and 1.4714.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
May Trading Results—up 5,352 pips
It was another good month for trading with profits of 5,352 pips. I don't have time to list the results for each individual trade but one can look back in the blog to find the detail. By pair, the results were:
AUDUSD +698 pips
EURCHF +682 pips
EURUSD +2,727 pips
GBPJPY +112 pips
GBPUSD +308 pips
USDCAD + 825 pips
2010 has offered a lot of opportunities and I've used straightforward technical analysis to take advantage of them. I hope that readers of this blog will see that it only requires this—you don't have to pay for some obscure, mystical technique to make profits in the market. Use your technical analysis skills and exercise ironclad discipline. If I had a losing month would I consider myself as a failure? No, not at all, as long as I was faithful to my rules and used discipline to let profits run and to cut losses.
Since October 2009 when I began reporting my results, the pips have been:
2010
May +5,352 pips
Apr +2,366 pips
Mar +6,141 pips
Feb +5,915 pips
Jan +3,116 pips
2009
Dec +2,092 pips
Nov +2,054 pips
Oct +1,994 pips
AUDUSD +698 pips
EURCHF +682 pips
EURUSD +2,727 pips
GBPJPY +112 pips
GBPUSD +308 pips
USDCAD + 825 pips
2010 has offered a lot of opportunities and I've used straightforward technical analysis to take advantage of them. I hope that readers of this blog will see that it only requires this—you don't have to pay for some obscure, mystical technique to make profits in the market. Use your technical analysis skills and exercise ironclad discipline. If I had a losing month would I consider myself as a failure? No, not at all, as long as I was faithful to my rules and used discipline to let profits run and to cut losses.
Since October 2009 when I began reporting my results, the pips have been:
2010
May +5,352 pips
Apr +2,366 pips
Mar +6,141 pips
Feb +5,915 pips
Jan +3,116 pips
2009
Dec +2,092 pips
Nov +2,054 pips
Oct +1,994 pips
USDCAD—correction
I've been profit-stopped out of both my longs (from 1.0389 and 1.0426) for +105 and +67 pips respectively. The long I entered at 1.0586 on Monday was stopped at breakeven.
It's possible a bull flag is forming on the three-hour chart which I've outlined. If so, the pair needs to close above 1.0578. This is a strong area of resistance because of fib confluence and polarity so the pair will have some difficulty, particularly if risk sentiment is more positive. If it does prove to be a flag then the potential minimum target is 1.0850 which is very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see on this one. Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
It's possible a bull flag is forming on the three-hour chart which I've outlined. If so, the pair needs to close above 1.0578. This is a strong area of resistance because of fib confluence and polarity so the pair will have some difficulty, particularly if risk sentiment is more positive. If it does prove to be a flag then the potential minimum target is 1.0850 which is very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see on this one. Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—rally
My short profit stopped out at +177 pips. I bought two positions at .8175 and they're now profit-stopped. Normally I try to get my trades on the blog quickly but I couldn't do it this time and the market started to move.
The pair has had higher highs and higher lows since its low yesterday at .8082 and, of course, it can't continue downward in a straight line without some rally. So perhaps fear is abating a bit and the rally can take place. On the daily chart (not shown) there is the potential for a double bottom. The pair needs to climb above .8551 for that to be confirmed so it has quite a ways to go. On the three-hour chart you can see an inverted head and shoulders pattern which was confirmed at .8218.
Resistance is at .8266/76, .8364, and .8477. Support is at .8240, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has had higher highs and higher lows since its low yesterday at .8082 and, of course, it can't continue downward in a straight line without some rally. So perhaps fear is abating a bit and the rally can take place. On the daily chart (not shown) there is the potential for a double bottom. The pair needs to climb above .8551 for that to be confirmed so it has quite a ways to go. On the three-hour chart you can see an inverted head and shoulders pattern which was confirmed at .8218.
Resistance is at .8266/76, .8364, and .8477. Support is at .8240, .8133, .8082 and .8067.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—doji
This pair should be doing slightly better than the Euro but it has its own share of problems. Nonetheless, there is positive divergence on the 3-hour chart and the doji that formed on the last closed candle with a low at 1.4346 is roughly at support. I have entered a small long at 1.4403. If the pair should sink below the doji low then a stop and reverse may be in order.
There are two key things to note about this trade. First, the position size is small. This is because the market is nervous with negative sentiment—fear—abounding. So I've reduced my normal position size to take that into account. I can always add to the position if it starts to trend upwards. Second, the doji low is significant because it's near support. Since there is an uptrend line involved as well, it's possible the break below is a fake-out. But of course it may not be. So my stop is fairly small.
Support is at 1.4395/89, 1.4346 (today's low), 1.4260 and 1.4228. Resistance is at 1.4532, 1.4563, 1.4682, and 1.4714.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There are two key things to note about this trade. First, the position size is small. This is because the market is nervous with negative sentiment—fear—abounding. So I've reduced my normal position size to take that into account. I can always add to the position if it starts to trend upwards. Second, the doji low is significant because it's near support. Since there is an uptrend line involved as well, it's possible the break below is a fake-out. But of course it may not be. So my stop is fairly small.
Support is at 1.4395/89, 1.4346 (today's low), 1.4260 and 1.4228. Resistance is at 1.4532, 1.4563, 1.4682, and 1.4714.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—ranging
The Euro is staying within a small range between 1.1876 and 1.1992, no doubt while traders examine fish entrails, study the heavens, and gaze into crystal balls trying to discern the future.
I still have two short positions from 1.2167 and 1.2061. I've taken some of the first one in profits this morning at +247 pips.
As I blogged yesterday, the pair should see a rally at some point and this ranging may mean it's coming sooner rather than later. Despite slower growth and austerity measures, Greece, Hungary, and other countries financial problems, and bank and credit issues in Eurozone, Ben Bernanke has been making soothing noises over the Euro which certainly tells you something. Of course, nobody can be sure entirely what. Still, expect a rally at some point and it's possible it could go to a high of 1.2450 or so. Which would be a wonderful level to short. If the pair approaches 1.1992, expect sellers to come in. However, use tight stops if shorting there.
Resistance (both short- and long-term) is at 1.1992, 1.2080, 1.2153, 1.2216, 1.2326, 1.2453, and 1.2885. That's quite a gap between 1.2453 and 1.2885 but there's no need to calculate shorter term resistance in between those two unless the Euro can climb higher that 1.22 or so. Support is at 1.1876/60, 1.1800, 1.1638, and 1.1500.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I still have two short positions from 1.2167 and 1.2061. I've taken some of the first one in profits this morning at +247 pips.
As I blogged yesterday, the pair should see a rally at some point and this ranging may mean it's coming sooner rather than later. Despite slower growth and austerity measures, Greece, Hungary, and other countries financial problems, and bank and credit issues in Eurozone, Ben Bernanke has been making soothing noises over the Euro which certainly tells you something. Of course, nobody can be sure entirely what. Still, expect a rally at some point and it's possible it could go to a high of 1.2450 or so. Which would be a wonderful level to short. If the pair approaches 1.1992, expect sellers to come in. However, use tight stops if shorting there.
Resistance (both short- and long-term) is at 1.1992, 1.2080, 1.2153, 1.2216, 1.2326, 1.2453, and 1.2885. That's quite a gap between 1.2453 and 1.2885 but there's no need to calculate shorter term resistance in between those two unless the Euro can climb higher that 1.22 or so. Support is at 1.1876/60, 1.1800, 1.1638, and 1.1500.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, June 7, 2010
USDCAD—correcting
After touching a high of 1.0679, USDCAD fell to a low of 1.0554 this morning where it looks as though it's trying to base. 1.0554 was the .382 retracement of the move up from 1.0352 and the retracement looks like a three-wave retracement on the hourly chart. 1.0570 is a confluence zone as well so that adds to the area as support. As a result I added a long at 1.0586. My other longs are from 1.0389 and 1.0426. A definitive push above 1.06 is necessary in the near term to keep this pair on track for going higher.
Resistance is at 1.0610, 1.0679, 1.0719 1.0781, 1.0855 and 1.0988. Support is at 1.0554, 1.0463, 1.0395/75, 1.0366/52, 1.0334/27, 1.0305, 1.0283/75, 1.0150, 1.0100 and 1.0045.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance is at 1.0610, 1.0679, 1.0719 1.0781, 1.0855 and 1.0988. Support is at 1.0554, 1.0463, 1.0395/75, 1.0366/52, 1.0334/27, 1.0305, 1.0283/75, 1.0150, 1.0100 and 1.0045.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURO—small rally
Is the French PM still unconcerned about the Euro's fall?
After dropping to a low of 1.1876, the Euro managed a rally this morning to 1.1992 (not too bad for a currency around whom are now swirling rumors of breaking apart) but it's struggling here. I have two short positions from 1.2167 and 1.2061.
Common sense says that the majority of this downward move has probably completed and there will be a rally of sorts. The Euro, as of May, has experienced six down months in a row. On the other hand, now that the 2005 November low of 1.1638 is in sight, it's as juicy a target as the 2008 high of 1.60. (Does anyone remember that?) So even if there is a corrective move (or wave) up to say 1.2453 (assuming this is a 5th wave, that would be wave two of five and can serve as a price target), the 1.1640 will still be viable. On the monthly chart, a trend line from the Sept. 2003 low of 1.0763 comes in at 1.2885 and that might also be an upside target for a rally. On the downside, a trend line drawn from the Oct. 2000 low of .8225 comes in at 1.0014. Surely the French PM will be concerned if that happens!
Resistance (both short- and long-term) is at 1.1992, 1.2080, 1.2153, 1.2216, 1.2326, 1.2453, and 1.2885. That's quite a gap between 1.2453 and 1.2885 but there's no need to calculate shorter term resistance in between those two unless the Euro can climb higher that 1.22 or so. Support is at 1.1860 and 1.1638, and 1.1500.
Here's the monthly chart (my trades don't show on this because I use a different charting package for longer term charting):
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
After dropping to a low of 1.1876, the Euro managed a rally this morning to 1.1992 (not too bad for a currency around whom are now swirling rumors of breaking apart) but it's struggling here. I have two short positions from 1.2167 and 1.2061.
Common sense says that the majority of this downward move has probably completed and there will be a rally of sorts. The Euro, as of May, has experienced six down months in a row. On the other hand, now that the 2005 November low of 1.1638 is in sight, it's as juicy a target as the 2008 high of 1.60. (Does anyone remember that?) So even if there is a corrective move (or wave) up to say 1.2453 (assuming this is a 5th wave, that would be wave two of five and can serve as a price target), the 1.1640 will still be viable. On the monthly chart, a trend line from the Sept. 2003 low of 1.0763 comes in at 1.2885 and that might also be an upside target for a rally. On the downside, a trend line drawn from the Oct. 2000 low of .8225 comes in at 1.0014. Surely the French PM will be concerned if that happens!
Resistance (both short- and long-term) is at 1.1992, 1.2080, 1.2153, 1.2216, 1.2326, 1.2453, and 1.2885. That's quite a gap between 1.2453 and 1.2885 but there's no need to calculate shorter term resistance in between those two unless the Euro can climb higher that 1.22 or so. Support is at 1.1860 and 1.1638, and 1.1500.
Here's the monthly chart (my trades don't show on this because I use a different charting package for longer term charting):
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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