As I pointed out in my blog post May 6, the dollar could go to its downtrend line on the weekly chart before getting pushed back. It's close. If one wants to stay with the simple argument (as opposed to all the gobbledy-gook that passes for analysis in some places) one could take the approach that it may head down for a while now. If it starts to get serious about staying below 87.50, this is the most likely scenario.
Here's the weekly chart:
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My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.