Thursday, April 1, 2010

Holiday

I'm finished trading for the week since tomorrow is Good Friday and Sunday is Easter. The markets are a little less liquid because of Passover and because of the upcoming Easter holiday. May everyone have a blessed holiday weekend.

Q1 Highs and Lows

These are the highs and lows for the first three months of the year:

AUDUSD: High: .9330 (Jan); Low .8578 (Feb)
EURCHF: High: 1.4894 (Jan); Low 1.4209 (Mar)
EURJPY: High: 134.39 (Jan); Low 119.65 (Feb)
EURUSD: High: 1.4579 (Jan); Low 1.3267 (Mar)
GBPCHF: High: 1.7115 (Jan); Low 1.5829(Mar)
GBPJPY: High: 150.72 (Jan); Low 132.03(Mar)
GBPUSD: High: 1.6460 (Jan); Low 1.4785(Mar)
USDCAD: High: 1.0781 (Feb); Low 1.0061 (Mar)
USDCHF: High: 1.0898 (Feb); Low 1.0131 (Jan)
USDJPY: High: .9377 (Jan); Low .8813 (Mar)
USDTRY: High: 1.5654 (Feb); Low 1.4447 (Jan)
USDZAR: High: 7.8965 (Feb); Low 7.2615 (Mar)

EURUSD—struggling with resistance

I shorted at 1.3527 yesterday and my stop is at breakeven. The pair reached a high of 1.3562 and, since then, has been struggling with resistance. On Tuesday, the high was 1.3537 so there hasn't been a great thrust upward by any means. It may reach higher in this holiday market with thinner liquidity but it's going to have to close above 1.3569 this week for things to continue to look up for this pair. 1.3543 is 50% of the move from 1.3818 to 1.3267. There is also fib confluence and polarity in the 1.35 area. So you can see it has a bit of a fight if it is to break through.

Support is at 1.3500, 1.3463, 1.3435, 1.3385 and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3569, 1.3633, 1.3760, and 1.3818.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—rallying

My short from 1.5168 stopped out 1.5207 for -39 pips. The pair is doing well, getting through the downtrend line from the February high of 1.6070. It may be heading back to the former high of 1.5382, where it will encounter formidable resistance, both from the March 17 high and from fib confluence. It reached a high of 1.5248 so far this morning and has some headwinds from a former speed line. While it has retreated a bit, it seems to be hanging around waiting for another try. If it could pull back a little more it might be a long (or one could wait for a break of 1.5247) However, this is a holiday market so caution is warrented.

Support is at 1.5182, 1.5128, 1.5044, 1.4990, 1.4901, and 1.4865. Resistance is at 1.5247/56, 1.5314/40, 1. 5382 (strong), 1.5412, 1.5576, 1.5708, and 1.5814.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

GBPJPY—nearing a channel top

GBPJPY is working its way up to 142.35 (high so far is 142.03) which is the top of an expanding channel. This is near a fib retracement level and polarity. It's also a 33% retracement of the range from the August high of 163.10 and the 132.02 low. I know any readers must think I do nothing but calculate retracement levels, lol. Actually, you're right. There is also some bearish divergence on the 1- and 3-hour charts.

Support is at 140.71, 140.26, 139.58. 138.95 and 138.03. Resistance is 142.35, 142.64, and 143.65.

Here's the three-hour chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—update 2

My first short stopped at breakeven and I have tried another one at 1.5168. The action is choppy and anyone considering shorts might want to wait for a clearer signal, up or down.

EURUSD—at strong resistance

Euro just touched a high of 1.3543. I shorted at 1.3527. While I've been looking for a stronger rally in Euro, it fell back yesterday after reaching a high of 1.3537 dipping down to 1.3385. It's possible this level will serve as resistance again today. 1.3543 is 50% of the move from 1.3818 to 1.3267. There are also some fib confluence levels here and polarity in the 1.35 area. All this doesn't mean it won't break through but it does mean that shorting is justifiable.

Support is at 1.3500, 1.3463, 1.3435, 1.3385 and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3569, 1.3633, 1.3760, and 1.3818.

Here's the one-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—update

I shorted at 1.5159 and have moved my stop to breakeven. If you look at the 3-hour chart below you can see that if the drop continues, the current candle, when it closes, will complete an evening star formation where the first candle is bullish, the second is a doji, and the third closes deeply within the body of the first candle. This is not confirmed until this three-hour candle closes. However, it's a positive sign if you're short as I am.

Support is at 1.5090, 1.5044, 1.4990, 1.4901, and 1.4865. Resistance is at 1.5156 (mild), 1.5187, 1.5382, and 1.5576.

Here's the three-hour chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—needs watching

If the pair can't get a good rally going today, it will close significantly off its monthly high of .9252. That would put it above last month's close of .8954 but still in a downtrend from November's high. The other issue is the downtrend line coming in from November's high of .9406 with touches at Jan. 14 and Mar. 17. It's currently at .9233 so a rally that fails at that point would not be positive. I closed out y remaining long at breakeven this morning.

Support is at .9131, .9078,.9002, .8958 (strong), .8922, .8871, .8801, .8788 (strong) and .8578. Resistance is at .9171, .9233 (strong), .9252, .9330, and .9406.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—at resistance

GBPUSD is up against a downtrend line coming in from the February high of 1.6070. On the hourly chart, RSI is showing an overbought reading but there's negative divergence. It could be worth a short with very tight stops but offsetting it somewhat is the bullish behavior—good strong candles—and the healthy bounce off the long-term uptrend line after the 1.4798 low. If it makes it through then 1.5314 will probably be the next key resistance.

Support is at 1.5044, 1.4990, 1.4901, and 1.4865. Resistance is at 1.5187, 1.5382, and 1.5576.

Here's the daily chart:















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—hammer after drop

The pair has dropped to 1.0150 this morning which is slightly below yesterday's low of 1.0157. On the hourly chart, it just completed a hammer. If it can stay above the hammer's low of 1.0150, then it should rally. There's positive divergence on the hourly chart. Going long here, give this pair's skanky performance lately, probably means taking profits in the 1.02 area

I have three small long positions: 1.0115, 1.165, and 1.0190. Obviously, the last one is under water a bit.

Support is at 1.0152/48, 1.0137, 1.0098, 1.0061, and 1.0005. Resistance is at 1.0217, 1.0268/82, 1.0304/22, and 1.0443.

Here's an hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

GBPJPY—rally

When I first looked at this pair this morning I was tempted to short because it was at resistance at the 139.25/87 level. 139.21 was .618 of the move from the 2/17 high of 143.65 to the low of 132.03. This price zone is also a fib confluence area and has served as prior resistance. However, closer examination showed one could make a case for going long.

For one thing, the pair kept probing higher. It's true the candles had upper shadows (and since it was near resistance one would be justified in thinking this was price rejection at higher levels). But it had also had a very weak pullback to a low of 138.05 prior to these new highs. Momentum, as represented by RSI, didn't seem to be falling off which is bullish. Finally, my stop could be tight. As a result, I went long at 139.58. The stop is better than breakeven and I've taken some partial profits at 140.24 for +66 pips.

The pair reached a high of 140.56 so far today, just before the identified resistance level of 140.57. If it can make it through here it can probably get to 141.50. If it falls back, watching momentum and price behavior is important in order to decide whether to short or to add to longs. Whichever direction you trade it, you want to keep tight stops.

Support is at 140.07, 139.46, 139.09, 138.50, 137.07, 136.55, 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.92, and 132.03. Resistance is at 140.57, 141.50, and 142.64.

Here's the one-hour chart.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPCHF—rally

The pound based pairs in general are rallying and GBPCHF is no exception, coming off a low of 1.5790 yesterday to a high today, so far, of 1.6106. I bought at 1.6031 and the stop is better than breakeven. I also just took partial profits at +61 pips.

Most of the reason I bought is because it had come up to a resistance point with a strong candle and it was the 4th attempt at resistance. In addition, the pound has taken a beating lately and I thought a rally was in the cards. Finally, there was positive divergence on the three-hour chart that looked ready to work its way out.

I doubt this pair can get much past 1.6222/52 which is a fib retracement and price resistance. Before it does that it needs to clear 1.6131, the downtrend line coming in. It might be worth adding to the position if there's a pullback but if it seriously starts to falter, a reverse might also be in the cards.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Market congestion

After some movement at the London open, the market seems a bit congested.

USDCAD—dropped

This pair dropped to 1.0179 this morning, close to yesterday's low of 1.0176. It may rally a bit from here again so I just added to my long at 1.0115. This is near the 50% of the move up from the 3/19 low of 1.0061 to the 1.0304 high. My plan is to close this one if it gets back to the 1.02's unless price action is very compelling.

Support is at 1.0176, 1.0137/52, 1.0098, 1.0061, and 1.0005. Resistance is at 1.0204, 1.0268/82, 1.0304/22, and 1.0443.

Here's the hourly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—rallying

Yesterday's market action did take out the remainder of my short at .9153 for +32 pips. I then went long at .9156. I took partial profits at +44 pips but I'm not moving my stop to breakeven just yet because the uptrend line is coming in at .9154 and it may retest it. As I wrote yesterday, the pair needs to get through .9200 with a definitive close before I see it as resuming its uptrend. It hasn't happened yet although there have been two touches of .9212 and .9214 in the last few hours. If it starts to falter at .9252 (a prior high), then a reverse may be in order.

Support is at .9194, .9160/54 (strong), .9067, .9002, .8985/73 (strong), .8929, .8871, .8801, .8788 (strong) and .8578. Resistance is at .9214, .9252, .9330, and .9406.

Here's the three-hour chart.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Monday, March 29, 2010

GBPUSD—weekly chart

The weekly chart shows this pair dropped to just at tad below its uptrend line from 2009 to a low of 1.4798. The line is now at 1.4809. With the March low at 1.4783 and with this general price level being polarity on longer-term charts, this is obviously key support.

The pair has reached a high of 1.5020 today but there are layers of resistance from 1.5058 to 1.5145 and shorts from those levels may be worth taking depending on price and momentum action at that point.

Support is at 1.4990, 1.4943/61, 1.4886, 1.4829, 1.4798, 1.4785 (strong), 1.4754 (strong), 1.4704, 1.4533, 1.4437, and 1.4397. Resistance is at 1.5021, 1.5055/63, 1.5090 and 1.5145. Over 1.5090 would probably mean an attempt at 1.5376/82.

Here's the weekly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Year-to-date high/lows

Since I last posted year–to-date highs and lows on March 18, we've had three new lows in the EURCHF, EURUSD, and GBPCHF. These are grouped according to which month they made their highs:

EURCHF: High: 1.4894 (Jan); Low 1.4233 (Mar)
EURJPY: High: 134.39 (Jan); Low 119.65 (Feb)
EURUSD: High: 1.4581 (Jan); Low 1.3267 (Mar)
GBPCHF: High: 1.7115 (Jan); Low 1.5829(Mar)
GBPJPY: High: 150.74 (Jan); Low 132.02(Mar)
GBPUSD: High: 1.6460 (Jan); Low 1.4783(Mar)
USDJPY: High: .9379 (Jan); Low .8813 (Mar)

USDCAD: High: 1.0782 (Feb); Low 1.0071 (Mar)
USDCHF: High: 1.0898 (Feb); Low 1.0132 (Jan)
USDTRY: High: 1.5654 (Feb); Low 1.4447 (Jan)
USDZAR: High: 7.8965 (Feb); Low 7.2440 (Mar)

AUDUSD: High: .9254 (March); Low .8578 (Feb)

EURUSD—rallying

The pair has bounced from the Thursday low of 1.3267. In doing so it took out my short from 1.3533 which was profit stopped at 1.3434 for +99 pips. After stalling Friday around the 1.3407 level it has stalled again at 1.3506, a bit below previously identified resistance. It looks like it's going to make another run at that level. At the bottom of its channel on the three-hour chart, it may be worth a small long.

Frankly, I'd expect lower lows from this pair from a variety of price target calculations and from cycle analysis. Until it cleanly closes above 1.3569 (the high prior to this last move down), it looks bearish. Clean means it stays above that high for the week. If it does this, then my former price objectives of 1.3853 and 1.4039 will come back into the realm of possibility.

Support is at 1.3436 (bottom of channel), 1.3377, 1.3325, 1.3267, 1.3209, 1.3200, 1.3127, 1.3092, 1.3000, and 1.2885. Resistance is at 1.3506, 1.3556, 1.3580/93, 1.3647, 1.3724, 1.3755 and 1.3818.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—below uptrend line

This pair looks skanky, having dropped below its short-term uptrend line (currently at 1.0218) accompanied by a drop below the RSI uptrend line. On the other hand, Friday's high of 1.0304 was higher than Thursday's high of 1.0282 (but only by 22 pips). I'm still long from 1.0115 but if you aren't already in a trade I'd stay away until price behavior becomes clearer.

Support is at 1.0137/52, 1.0098, and 1.0061. Resistance is at 1.0268/82, 1.0304/22, and 1.0443.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—Bounced

After dropping to a low of .9002 on Friday, the pair has bounced up to a high of .9147 this morning (as of 7:50 AM EST). Here it encountered resistance from a resistance zone and fib confluence. If the bulls can get it through .9200 with a definitive close, the pair may get back into its uptrend mode. From an RSI perspective, the pair has moved to overbought (over 70). If it successfully moves back in (that is avoids what J. Wells Wilder called a failure swing), it lends credibility to the idea it may resume its uptrend. However, if you believe this is only a retracement during a larger period of weakness then you'd want to add to shorts at .9150.

Since I'm still short from .9185, I'm staying short for now. I took partial profits on that short at .9045 on Friday for +140 pips. If the pair gets much beyond its current resistance, that short will profit stop out at .9153. Then I'll decide what to do.

Support is at .9127, .9106, .9067, .9002, .8985/73 (strong), .8929, .8871, .8801, .8788 (strong) and .8578. Resistance is at .9127/47 (strong), .9198, .9252, .9330, and .9406.

Here's the 1-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—possible shorts coming up

The broadening pattern I wrote about on the 15-minute chart on Friday has turned into a general upward sloping channel. The pair has pierced the top of it once and fallen back but not significantly. It looks as though it may be meandering back to resistance at 139.25/35. In addition to being near the top of the channel (138.87), this would be .618 of the move from the 2/17 high of 143.65 to the low of 132.03. It’s also a fib confluence zone and has served as prior resistance. If it makes it through here then the next logical resistance is 141.50.

As always, with this pair you want to have tight stops. Going long here, in the belief it will get to at least 1398.87, is a bit riskier from a probability standpoint. The stop would need to be wider—below the bottom of the channel, especially since the bottom is 138.07 which is also near a round number. However, if you believed the pair would continue to climb from the minor support level at which it's currently offered (138.45), you'd go long. As readers know, I have no problem with riding this pair up and down but it only works if you're rigorous with stops and are absolutely willing to reverse. Also, the reward needs to be there. 30 to 50 pips of reward doesn't do a lot for me. Watch momentum, i.e. with RSI, as well.

Support is at 138.26, 137.07, 136.55, 135.19, 134.53 (strong), 133.92, and 132.03. Resistance is at 138.50, 139.25/50, 138.37, 138.96 (strong), 139.58 (strong), 140.57, and 142.64.

Here's the 15-minute chart.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.