AUDUSD—Bounced

After dropping to a low of .9002 on Friday, the pair has bounced up to a high of .9147 this morning (as of 7:50 AM EST). Here it encountered resistance from a resistance zone and fib confluence. If the bulls can get it through .9200 with a definitive close, the pair may get back into its uptrend mode. From an RSI perspective, the pair has moved to overbought (over 70). If it successfully moves back in (that is avoids what J. Wells Wilder called a failure swing), it lends credibility to the idea it may resume its uptrend. However, if you believe this is only a retracement during a larger period of weakness then you'd want to add to shorts at .9150.

Since I'm still short from .9185, I'm staying short for now. I took partial profits on that short at .9045 on Friday for +140 pips. If the pair gets much beyond its current resistance, that short will profit stop out at .9153. Then I'll decide what to do.

Support is at .9127, .9106, .9067, .9002, .8985/73 (strong), .8929, .8871, .8801, .8788 (strong) and .8578. Resistance is at .9127/47 (strong), .9198, .9252, .9330, and .9406.

Here's the 1-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.