I don't trade on summer Fridays. If you do, be careful. The lower liquidity means extreme moves are possible.
See you Monday.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
AUDUSD—Update
I took partial profits at +70 pips. It's nearing the moving average resistance so what it does here will perhaps give some direction.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURCHF—1.2970 historic low
I haven't blogged about this pair in a while. After the Swiss National Bank gave up on intervention it has continued to fall in a lovely, textbook, downtrend. After a move down from 1.4468 (I'm using that rather than the 1.4591 high because both the weeks of 4/16 and 5/28 had it as a high) to the low of 1.3062, the pair retraced to 1.3926 which was almost a perfect .618 retracement. It then dropped down to yesterday's 1.2970 which is a historic low. In doing so it formed a hammer on the daily chart.
So now what? The hammer low must hold. If it doesn't, the break of 1.2970 will lead lower, possibly to 1.28. However there could also be another bounce here. A .382 retracement of the last leg down would lead to a potential price of 1.3335; a 50% retracement would be 1.3448. Around the price of 1.3475 are the 20 and 50 day daily SMA's. There's also positive divergence on the daily chart. The problem here is that with such a perfect downtrend and the negative sentiment against the Euro, price could drop rather quickly. So any long would need that stop just below 1.2970. However a short must also have a tight stop because most pairs don't usually go down in a straight line.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
So now what? The hammer low must hold. If it doesn't, the break of 1.2970 will lead lower, possibly to 1.28. However there could also be another bounce here. A .382 retracement of the last leg down would lead to a potential price of 1.3335; a 50% retracement would be 1.3448. Around the price of 1.3475 are the 20 and 50 day daily SMA's. There's also positive divergence on the daily chart. The problem here is that with such a perfect downtrend and the negative sentiment against the Euro, price could drop rather quickly. So any long would need that stop just below 1.2970. However a short must also have a tight stop because most pairs don't usually go down in a straight line.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—Bouncing
On the daily chart AUDUSD formed a nice hammer with its dip to .8770 yesterday. This was near its short-term uptrend line from June which today comes in at .8763. .8781 was also the .382 retracement level of the move up from .8067 on May 25 to the Aug. 6 high at .9222.
I bought at .8836 after a nice solid close above the low on the three-hour chart with the positive divergence I wrote about yesterday. The pair touched a high earlier today of .8893 where it ran into price resistance. The 10-day SMA is at .8925; the 200 is at .8940. Those may well serve as resistance. If they don't, .9000, .9050 and .9080 are the next resistance levels. Should a move down begin again, the pair must break below .8740. Below that is .8715 and .8655/40 (July 19 low and 50% of June 7 to Aug. 6 rise).
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I bought at .8836 after a nice solid close above the low on the three-hour chart with the positive divergence I wrote about yesterday. The pair touched a high earlier today of .8893 where it ran into price resistance. The 10-day SMA is at .8925; the 200 is at .8940. Those may well serve as resistance. If they don't, .9000, .9050 and .9080 are the next resistance levels. Should a move down begin again, the pair must break below .8740. Below that is .8715 and .8655/40 (July 19 low and 50% of June 7 to Aug. 6 rise).
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—ranging within broadening pattern
Euro is moving within a broadening pattern on the hourly chart. The rally from yesterday's 1.2588 low has been sluggish which doesn't bode well for things. A broadening pattern after any kind of uptrend can be deadly. The high today, so far, has been 1.2746 well within expected correction levels. Only if the pair breaks above 1.2775 can one expect more upward price probes. Note that this is about the top of the broadening pattern as well as the .382 retracement level (1.1892 to 1.3335) so a failure at that price should encourage a short position. Still weighing on the pair are the daily simple moving averages. It's struggling with the 10 right now at 1.2747; the 50 is right above it at 1.2756.
Support is at 1.2726, 1.2613, 1.2588. Should it break upward of 1.2775, one can expect resistance at 1.2800 and 1.2927.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.2726, 1.2613, 1.2588. Should it break upward of 1.2775, one can expect resistance at 1.2800 and 1.2927.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—rebuffed at 1.0668
I'm still long from 1.0472 but of course if the decline continues my profit stop will be hit.
Yesterday made for two days in a row that the pair failed to break 1.0668. The long upper shadows on each of the daily candles was ominous as this hints that higher prices are being rejected.
History shows this is a significant price for USDCAD. If you look at the arrows and the line I've placed on the weekly chart below you see that this little price zone has acted as both resistance and support (polarity). If it breaks upward then there is additional resistance up to 1.0856 although there's significant upward potential given the triangle I've been blogging about and which you can also see outlined on the weekly chart.
As of now, even though its dropping, the pair is still above that triangle. It's still above the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. The low so far is 1.0544, just below Fib confluence of 1.0586. This is lower than yesterday and the day before. Below 1.0540 looms 1.0480 (the breakout point), 1.0450, and 1.0389/50. Resistance is at 1.0668, 1.0700 and 1.0856.
Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn't show because I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charting.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Yesterday made for two days in a row that the pair failed to break 1.0668. The long upper shadows on each of the daily candles was ominous as this hints that higher prices are being rejected.
History shows this is a significant price for USDCAD. If you look at the arrows and the line I've placed on the weekly chart below you see that this little price zone has acted as both resistance and support (polarity). If it breaks upward then there is additional resistance up to 1.0856 although there's significant upward potential given the triangle I've been blogging about and which you can also see outlined on the weekly chart.
As of now, even though its dropping, the pair is still above that triangle. It's still above the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. The low so far is 1.0544, just below Fib confluence of 1.0586. This is lower than yesterday and the day before. Below 1.0540 looms 1.0480 (the breakout point), 1.0450, and 1.0389/50. Resistance is at 1.0668, 1.0700 and 1.0856.
Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn't show because I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charting.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
USDCAD—resistance
I'm still long from 1.0472.
The pair is managing to stay above the triangle and above the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages but it's still having a hard time. So far it has touched 1.0668, a measly four pips above yesterday's high of 1.0664. Fib confluence is still beckoning as support at 1.0586. Also around there is the short-term uptrend line from yesterday on the hourly chart. Finally there was a shooting star candle at the top and with negative divergence on the hourly chart, we may see a drop to at least the 1.0586 area.
Below that would be yesterday's and today's lows of 1.0557/74 and below that the breakout point of 1.0480. All five of the previously mentioned moving averages are clustered between 1.0345 and 1.0452 so there's a support zone lined up. Resistance is at 1.0668, 1.0700 and 1.0856.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair is managing to stay above the triangle and above the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages but it's still having a hard time. So far it has touched 1.0668, a measly four pips above yesterday's high of 1.0664. Fib confluence is still beckoning as support at 1.0586. Also around there is the short-term uptrend line from yesterday on the hourly chart. Finally there was a shooting star candle at the top and with negative divergence on the hourly chart, we may see a drop to at least the 1.0586 area.
Below that would be yesterday's and today's lows of 1.0557/74 and below that the breakout point of 1.0480. All five of the previously mentioned moving averages are clustered between 1.0345 and 1.0452 so there's a support zone lined up. Resistance is at 1.0668, 1.0700 and 1.0856.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—closer to uptrend line
The overnight spike up took out the remainder of my short for a profit of +80 pips. The pair then immediately turned down again of course. The low so far today is .8779 versus yesterday's .8796. So the pair is edging closer to the short-term uptrend line from June, today at .8748. .8781 is also the .382 retracement level of the move up from .8067 on May 25 to the Aug. 6 high at .9222. Any bounce will find resistance at the 10- and 100-daily moving averages around .8835 and I'll probably try to short there. A definitive break below .8740 would be significant. Similarly, positive divergence and increasing momentum at the uptrend line would justify a small long position but be careful—there's lots of negative sentiment out there and it is August.
Support below .8740 is at .8715 and .8655/40 (July 19 low and 50% of June 7 to Aug. 6 rise). Resistance is .8895, .8992, .9050 and .9080.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support below .8740 is at .8715 and .8655/40 (July 19 low and 50% of June 7 to Aug. 6 rise). Resistance is .8895, .8992, .9050 and .9080.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—desperately clinging to 50%
The 50% retracement of the move up from June's 1.1892 to 1.3335 is at 1.2613. Yesterday's low was 1.2588; today it has managed to achieve 1.2726. On the hourly chart, this high was a shooting star candle (small body with a long upper shadow). While a shooting star by itself is not a major reversal signal after an uptrend, it was followed by a very bearish engulfing candle. Its top was near that of prior price resistance and, on August 15, of a low. This combination of resistance and support is polarity. Also weighing on the pair are several daily moving averages: the 10 SMA is 1.2757; 50 SMA is 1.2749; and the 100 SMA is 1.2742. Finally, as though we need more evidence that things look bearish, price may have completed a fourth wave EW correction. And then there's all that bearish sentiment out there….Gee, it almost sounds as though it's time for a strong rally. There is positive divergence on the hourly chart with RSI.
My short from 1.2684 stopped at breakeven. I shorted again this morning at 1.2648. So I got a worse price than before but if further declines are in the cards that's OK. I'm moving my stop too quickly, no doubt because of my concern over the illiquid August market. Corrections can be tricky to trade as well. Still, you can stop at breakeven all day long—it doesn't hurt your capital position. If the trade gets away it gets away. Continued weakness should mean a break below 1.2580. Any move above 1.2775 suggests bigger gains.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
My short from 1.2684 stopped at breakeven. I shorted again this morning at 1.2648. So I got a worse price than before but if further declines are in the cards that's OK. I'm moving my stop too quickly, no doubt because of my concern over the illiquid August market. Corrections can be tricky to trade as well. Still, you can stop at breakeven all day long—it doesn't hurt your capital position. If the trade gets away it gets away. Continued weakness should mean a break below 1.2580. Any move above 1.2775 suggests bigger gains.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
USDCAD—broke upward from triangle
USDCAD, after 16 weeks of forming the symmetrical triangle, finally broke upward yesterday with the breakout point around 1.0480. I would not be surprised to see a retest of this point if it's really going to fly but we'll see. In its climb to touch 1.0664 so far today, it also broke above fib confluence at 1.0586. It looks as though it's heading back to retest that point. I may add another position at that point although I took partial profits this morning at +165 pips. Caution is required because of the slightly negative divergence on the hourly chart.
Resistance is at 1.0664, 1.0700 and 1.0856. Support is at the short-term uptrend line of 1.0550, 1.0515, 1.0480/60. Much below that would call into question the validity of the breakout.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance is at 1.0664, 1.0700 and 1.0856. Support is at the short-term uptrend line of 1.0550, 1.0515, 1.0480/60. Much below that would call into question the validity of the breakout.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—nearing support
With a low so far of .8805 this morning, the pair isn't that far from the short-term uptrend line from June at .8742 where it should bounce, possibly to .8865 or higher. I've taken partial profits at +132 pips. The pair's drop has taken it below the 10, 50, 100 and 200 daily SMA. Currently the pair is trying to regain the 100 SMA which is at .8833. A break below .8740 would be significant.
Support is .8805, .8770, .8742, .8715 and .8655/40 (July 19 low and 50% of June 7 to Aug. 6 rise). Resistance is .8865, .8992, .9050 and .9080.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is .8805, .8770, .8742, .8715 and .8655/40 (July 19 low and 50% of June 7 to Aug. 6 rise). Resistance is .8865, .8992, .9050 and .9080.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—nice slide
Euro touched a low of 1.2604 so far this morning. That's a nice little slide that took it below several moving averages, an uptrend line and is about 50% of the most recent rally. It may try to base here to attempt an upward correction. It's doubtful that it will get above 1.2773 which was the 19 Aug. low and near the daily 10 SMA of 1.2777. I never did find a way to short a rally yesterday so I shorted the failure at 1.2684 getting in at 1.2656. The trade has no risk with the stop at just better than breakeven but it may be taken out and, if so, I'll probably re-enter. Anywhere from 1.2730 to 1.2777 is a possible short but of course the lower the price the wider the stop will have to be.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—nice slide
Euro touched a low of 1.2604 so far this morning. That's a nice little slide that took it below several moving averages, an uptrend line and is about 50% of the most recent rally. It may try to base here to attempt an upward correction. It's doubtful that will get above 1.2773 which was the 19 Aug. low and near the daily 10 SMA of 1.2777. I never did find a way to short a rally yesterday so I shorted the failure at 1.2684 getting in at 1.2656. The trade has no risk with the stop at just better than breakeven but it may be taken out and, if so, I'll probably re-enter.
Here's the three-hour chart:
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—nice slide
Euro touched a low of 1.2604 so far this morning. That's a nice little slide that took it below several moving averages, an uptrend line and is about 50% of the most recent rally. It may try to base here to attempt an upward correction. It's doubtful that will get above 1.2773 which was the 19 Aug. low and near the daily 10 SMA of 1.2777. I never did find a way to short a rally yesterday so I shorted the failure at 1.2684 getting in at 1.2656. The trade has no risk with the stop at just better than breakeven but it may be taken out and, if so, I'll probably re-enter.
Here's the three-hour chart:
Monday, August 23, 2010
EURUSD—weak
Euro looks like it's beginning another stair step down which it likes to do in downtrends. It's struggling right now to regain the daily 100 SMA at 1.0257 but it's doubtful this will happen unless the low liquidity results in an extreme move.
In the move down it broke the .382 retracement of the up move from 1.1902, broke below its short-term uptrend line from that low, and in general looks as though it's beginning a third wave down (iii circle). Momentum is also sagging. I'm planning on shorting any rally as long as I'm actively trading when it happens.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
In the move down it broke the .382 retracement of the up move from 1.1902, broke below its short-term uptrend line from that low, and in general looks as though it's beginning a third wave down (iii circle). Momentum is also sagging. I'm planning on shorting any rally as long as I'm actively trading when it happens.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—weekly
USDCAD is at the top of the weekly triangle and it's possible the pair will move down to 1.0160 which is the uptrend line. It's also possible that it will break above and resume a longer term uptrend from late 2007. Short term behavior is encouraging that it will break upward but of course one must consider the ever dwindling liquidity in the August market.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—update
I'm watching this trade closely. The pair has rallied and while it's stumbling now a bit (as of 10 AM EST with highs of .8982, a break above here will probably cause me to close my trade.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD--weak
The remainder of my short from .9030 profit stopped at .8942 for +88 pips.
The pair dropped to .8841, the 100 daily SMA, where it formed a hammer on the three-hour chart. It has since rallied to .8975 (near the 10 SMA of .8977) and just above the 200 SMA of .8946 where it began to falter a bit. I shorted this morning at .8958. The slight dip below the .382 retracement of .8317 to .9222 and the 200 daily SMA indicates weakness. I think it's possible the pair will drop to .8740/70, the short-term trend line from early June, fib confluence, and near the .8738 July 21 low.
Support is at .8841, .8770 (.382 retracement level of the move up to .9222), and .8738. A break below would be significant. Resistance is at .8977, .8991, .9027, and .9080.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair dropped to .8841, the 100 daily SMA, where it formed a hammer on the three-hour chart. It has since rallied to .8975 (near the 10 SMA of .8977) and just above the 200 SMA of .8946 where it began to falter a bit. I shorted this morning at .8958. The slight dip below the .382 retracement of .8317 to .9222 and the 200 daily SMA indicates weakness. I think it's possible the pair will drop to .8740/70, the short-term trend line from early June, fib confluence, and near the .8738 July 21 low.
Support is at .8841, .8770 (.382 retracement level of the move up to .9222), and .8738. A break below would be significant. Resistance is at .8977, .8991, .9027, and .9080.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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