I'm not trading on Fridays during the summer. There's too little liquidity, particularly as NorAm hours progress. I will post my June results later today.
See you Monday.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Current positions
Still long in EURUSD from 1.2875 with profit stop in place. Short in USDCHF from1.0436 with stop at breakeven.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
EURUSD—update
Went long at 1.2875. Stop already at breakeven.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—update
I was stopped at -50 pips. Time to look at possibly going short.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—weak
My remaining long from .8797 profit stopped out at +40 pips.
Yesterday's high was .8871 at which point price seriously began to falter. It makes sense that it would. As I wrote on Monday, .8860 was the top of the rectangle on the weekly chart and .8859 was the June 21 high and polarity. In addition, .8868 is .618 Fib retracement of the .9364 to .8067 move. I didn't short—clearly my mind was elsewhere. One of the "tricks" to good trading is that you have to stay absolutely focused. As my error with Euro yesterday shows, I've been lacking this week. All I can do as a trader is acknowledge this and move on. If I start beating myself up over it, things won't improve. By the way, note that the "trick" is within everyone's capability and doesn't involve esoteric and secretive formulas and mysteries.
The pair has made a double top at .8859 and .8871 but it won't be confirmed until price drops below .8317. That's quite a distance away. Some might argue a triple top with a touch May 7 of .8832 but the confirmation point is even lower with that at .8067. Still, it's something to keep in mind for the long term. It also raises a good question. If AUD is so strong and the USD is so weak, why does AUD keep topping out?
So far today the pair has dipped to .8728. Any gain in price back to .8871will likely bring in sellers (although if a pair repeatedly batters at a price it often can break through). On the 15-minute chart (not shown) there is a hammer with the drop to .8728. A break below that will have sellers coming in.
Here's the weekly chart (my trades don't show on this chart since I use a different charting package for longer term charting):
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Yesterday's high was .8871 at which point price seriously began to falter. It makes sense that it would. As I wrote on Monday, .8860 was the top of the rectangle on the weekly chart and .8859 was the June 21 high and polarity. In addition, .8868 is .618 Fib retracement of the .9364 to .8067 move. I didn't short—clearly my mind was elsewhere. One of the "tricks" to good trading is that you have to stay absolutely focused. As my error with Euro yesterday shows, I've been lacking this week. All I can do as a trader is acknowledge this and move on. If I start beating myself up over it, things won't improve. By the way, note that the "trick" is within everyone's capability and doesn't involve esoteric and secretive formulas and mysteries.
The pair has made a double top at .8859 and .8871 but it won't be confirmed until price drops below .8317. That's quite a distance away. Some might argue a triple top with a touch May 7 of .8832 but the confirmation point is even lower with that at .8067. Still, it's something to keep in mind for the long term. It also raises a good question. If AUD is so strong and the USD is so weak, why does AUD keep topping out?
So far today the pair has dipped to .8728. Any gain in price back to .8871will likely bring in sellers (although if a pair repeatedly batters at a price it often can break through). On the 15-minute chart (not shown) there is a hammer with the drop to .8728. A break below that will have sellers coming in.
Here's the weekly chart (my trades don't show on this chart since I use a different charting package for longer term charting):
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—new high
Thanks to my dumb mistake yesterday of closing out the wrong long position, I'm out of the Euro completely today because the remaining long from 1.2713 profit stopped at 1.2728 (+15 pips). The original one from 1.2550 had a wider stop on it since it was doing so well and I'd still be in. These things happen.
Euro has done well overnight, breaking out of its narrow range and reaching a high so far this morning of 1.2865. As a result, 1.3108 (the 1.618 times the length of wave A) is the next target. Other evidence for this target is that it's approximately .618 of the 1.3818 to 1.1876 down move.
Is there a way to get back in? It's at a little bit of resistance now so one could buy a clear break. Buying on a pullback is another possibility with 1.2775 (roughly the top of the rectangle it traded within for a couple of days) an entry point.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Euro has done well overnight, breaking out of its narrow range and reaching a high so far this morning of 1.2865. As a result, 1.3108 (the 1.618 times the length of wave A) is the next target. Other evidence for this target is that it's approximately .618 of the 1.3818 to 1.1876 down move.
Is there a way to get back in? It's at a little bit of resistance now so one could buy a clear break. Buying on a pullback is another possibility with 1.2775 (roughly the top of the rectangle it traded within for a couple of days) an entry point.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—at support range
I blogged on Tuesday that this pair might be heading for a buy setup and that the price to watch was 1.0492. To quote from that posting, "it would be nice to see RSI above 30 on the daily chart. One way to gauge this is to watch the hourly and see if it dips back below 30 and then closes above it".
Price was hit overnight but what about RSI? On the daily chart RSI is still below 30; on the hourly it dipped below and has just had a candle close slightly above at 30.31. That candle was an inverted hammer. Inverted hammers are those that occur after a downtrend (we have that for sure), and have a long upper shadow and little or no lower shadow. This candle meets all those criteria but it will only be confirmed if there's a higher close in the current candle forming.
Price has touched a low of 1.0455 as I write (8:01 AM EST). From 1.0422 to 1.0455 there is a strong price support. That means I can have a reasonably tight stop. There's also some positive divergence on the daily and three-hour chart.
So I bought at 1.0469 recognizing that this is trade that many would not take. But that's true of many of my trades. However I have four pieces of evidence (price support, positive divergence, RSI close values, and candle formation). I can also have a tight stop. All that makes a good trade by my criteria, even if the trade goes on to lose money.
If the pair breaks 1.0420 with a decisive move (none of this namby-pamby stick my toes in and see if it's cold in there business) then the next logical support is 1.0283, 1.0138 and .9912 (bummer, the dollar bulls would say). Resistance is at 1.0492, 1.0586, 1.0631, 1.0676 and….well, let's stop there and see what unfolds over the next few hours.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Price was hit overnight but what about RSI? On the daily chart RSI is still below 30; on the hourly it dipped below and has just had a candle close slightly above at 30.31. That candle was an inverted hammer. Inverted hammers are those that occur after a downtrend (we have that for sure), and have a long upper shadow and little or no lower shadow. This candle meets all those criteria but it will only be confirmed if there's a higher close in the current candle forming.
Price has touched a low of 1.0455 as I write (8:01 AM EST). From 1.0422 to 1.0455 there is a strong price support. That means I can have a reasonably tight stop. There's also some positive divergence on the daily and three-hour chart.
So I bought at 1.0469 recognizing that this is trade that many would not take. But that's true of many of my trades. However I have four pieces of evidence (price support, positive divergence, RSI close values, and candle formation). I can also have a tight stop. All that makes a good trade by my criteria, even if the trade goes on to lose money.
If the pair breaks 1.0420 with a decisive move (none of this namby-pamby stick my toes in and see if it's cold in there business) then the next logical support is 1.0283, 1.0138 and .9912 (bummer, the dollar bulls would say). Resistance is at 1.0492, 1.0586, 1.0631, 1.0676 and….well, let's stop there and see what unfolds over the next few hours.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
EURUSD—dumb mistake
Instead of closing the long that I bought at 1.2713, I managed to close the long from 1.2550 for +210 pips leaving me with the one long from 1.2713. Arghh! A moment's inattention. Oh well at least I didn't do something that resulted in a loss. Trading requires focus and I was trying to get in some treadmill time while I monitored trades. Not a good idea apparently.
EURUSD—update 2
Added a long position at 1.2713 as it moved above a triangle on the five-minute chart. I'm assuming the triangle will break up as that is the direction the pair was moving prior to forming. I'll be happy when I can move my stop to breakeven. The market looks a little unstable. Here's the 5-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—narrow range
I'm still long from .8593. I added another long yesterday at .8747. Obviously, both are profit-stopped.
The AUDUSD hasn't been doing much, either in price or momentum (as measured by RSI). However, price has reached a high of .8853 which puts it very close to .8860. That's the top of the range on the weekly chart and is the June 21 high and polarity. In addition, .8878 is the location of the 100 SMA on the daily chart. Finally, .8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move. One can see why it's locked in a battle here with neither bulls nor bears coming out ahead. Should it make it above here (and it's looking doubtful) then .9040, the target from the confirmed double bottom is possible.
I'm probably going to close my long from .8593 given all the negative pressure. Certainly a drop below the uptrend line at .8769 and the recent low of .8663 would make the bears more powerful and target .8400. We just need to wait and see with this pair. A reverse to a short may be in the cards.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The AUDUSD hasn't been doing much, either in price or momentum (as measured by RSI). However, price has reached a high of .8853 which puts it very close to .8860. That's the top of the range on the weekly chart and is the June 21 high and polarity. In addition, .8878 is the location of the 100 SMA on the daily chart. Finally, .8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move. One can see why it's locked in a battle here with neither bulls nor bears coming out ahead. Should it make it above here (and it's looking doubtful) then .9040, the target from the confirmed double bottom is possible.
I'm probably going to close my long from .8593 given all the negative pressure. Certainly a drop below the uptrend line at .8769 and the recent low of .8663 would make the bears more powerful and target .8400. We just need to wait and see with this pair. A reverse to a short may be in the cards.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—consolidating
I'm long from 1.2550 and 1.2735. I added the second position on the break of the prior high. Obviously it's a little underwater but the one from 1.2550 has done well.
Euro has been consolidating in a tight, 46 pip range since yesterday morning. Usually, moves when they come from narrow ranges are good ones, either up or down.
Someone commented yesterday that there is an inverted head and shoulder (H&S) pattern on the daily chart that was confirmed when Euro moved above 1.2673. That's true. In addition, the pattern has some symmetry that's valuable in these types of formations. However, I'm less enamored of it than I might be otherwise because there is some strong resistance the Euro would have to overcome (fib confluence zones, polarity, etc) to realize the price target of 1.3454. There's also a triangle that formed just before the H&S pattern formed. Often, when you look back on H&S failures you can see these types of occurrences before the H&S. Failed H&S patterns are often present in Elliott Wave (EW) expanded flats so if that's what this becomes it will fail well ahead of the price target. I'm also unhappy that price pulled back below the breakout level. Finally, I like to see other evidence to support a price target. In this case, I can't find much but 2.618 times the A leg of the ABC correction would be 1.3433. That's pretty close but it's hardly compelling.
Let's see where it goes from here. If it can achieve 5% beyond the breakout point I'd say the H&S has more potential. Since I'm long and in profit I'd be thrilled to see this.
I’m still assuming it's finishing the C wave of an ABC correction where the A wave was 591 pips from 1.1876 to 1.2467. With a high of 1.2739 so far this morning, the C wave is essentially equal to the A wave (exact would be 1.2743). If it continues to extend beyond this level, it could reach 1.3108 which would be 1.618 times the length of A. If one looks at the price behavior since Friday as a bull flag, the price target would be about 1.3150. That seems like a realistic target if it can break beyond the current narrow rectangle.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Euro has been consolidating in a tight, 46 pip range since yesterday morning. Usually, moves when they come from narrow ranges are good ones, either up or down.
Someone commented yesterday that there is an inverted head and shoulder (H&S) pattern on the daily chart that was confirmed when Euro moved above 1.2673. That's true. In addition, the pattern has some symmetry that's valuable in these types of formations. However, I'm less enamored of it than I might be otherwise because there is some strong resistance the Euro would have to overcome (fib confluence zones, polarity, etc) to realize the price target of 1.3454. There's also a triangle that formed just before the H&S pattern formed. Often, when you look back on H&S failures you can see these types of occurrences before the H&S. Failed H&S patterns are often present in Elliott Wave (EW) expanded flats so if that's what this becomes it will fail well ahead of the price target. I'm also unhappy that price pulled back below the breakout level. Finally, I like to see other evidence to support a price target. In this case, I can't find much but 2.618 times the A leg of the ABC correction would be 1.3433. That's pretty close but it's hardly compelling.
Let's see where it goes from here. If it can achieve 5% beyond the breakout point I'd say the H&S has more potential. Since I'm long and in profit I'd be thrilled to see this.
I’m still assuming it's finishing the C wave of an ABC correction where the A wave was 591 pips from 1.1876 to 1.2467. With a high of 1.2739 so far this morning, the C wave is essentially equal to the A wave (exact would be 1.2743). If it continues to extend beyond this level, it could reach 1.3108 which would be 1.618 times the length of A. If one looks at the price behavior since Friday as a bull flag, the price target would be about 1.3150. That seems like a realistic target if it can break beyond the current narrow rectangle.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
EURUSD—update
Euro has reached a high of 1.2738. I've taken some partial profits at + 168 pips.
I’m still assuming it's finishing the C wave of an ABC correction where the A wave was 591 pips from 1.1876 to 1.2467. At 1.2738, the C wave is essentially equal to the A wave (exact would be 1.2743). If it continues to extend beyond this level, it could reach 1.3108 which would be 1.618 times the length of A. If one looks at the price behavior since Friday as a bull flag, the price target would be about 1.3150. Hmmph. That would be nice.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I’m still assuming it's finishing the C wave of an ABC correction where the A wave was 591 pips from 1.1876 to 1.2467. At 1.2738, the C wave is essentially equal to the A wave (exact would be 1.2743). If it continues to extend beyond this level, it could reach 1.3108 which would be 1.618 times the length of A. If one looks at the price behavior since Friday as a bull flag, the price target would be about 1.3150. Hmmph. That would be nice.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—possible buy set-up coming
On the daily chart, USDCHF looks as though it may be getting ready to test its upward trend line again. If so, I may buy although I'm not sure the USD is quite finished with its overall correction. The buy point would be 1.0492 but it would be nice to see RSI above 30 on the daily chart. One way to gauge this is to watch the hourly and see if it dips back below 30 and then closes above it. If so, a buy with a tight stop might be in the cards. You would need the tight stop because the uptrend line on the weekly chart is quite a bit lower, just above parity. It's possible it will bounce to about 1.0590 when sellers will come out in force and then head down again. More to come.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—stalling
This pair is having its fun with traders—first hints of highs; then hints it is dropping and once everyone gets short, wham, a bounce back up. Cable is stalling. It could be that it's caught in a period until July 21 where its seasonal tendency is to go up while there is downward pressure on the pair. Eventually it will find a direction.
It's currently retesting the channel line through which it broke below. The line is at 1.5103 and cable has gotten slightly above that at 1.512. On the daily chart (not shown) the low of 1.4949 was a doji so it price should drop below there then I'd say a bigger decline was coming. If the pair climbs back into its channel and continues up, 1.5220/55 will probably see sellers coming in. This zone contains a fib confluence as well as a downtrend line. Above that is the weekly channel at 1.5329.
I'm watching this pair and may try a short if RSI falls below 70 on the hourly chart, depending on price behavior on the same.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
It's currently retesting the channel line through which it broke below. The line is at 1.5103 and cable has gotten slightly above that at 1.512. On the daily chart (not shown) the low of 1.4949 was a doji so it price should drop below there then I'd say a bigger decline was coming. If the pair climbs back into its channel and continues up, 1.5220/55 will probably see sellers coming in. This zone contains a fib confluence as well as a downtrend line. Above that is the weekly channel at 1.5329.
I'm watching this pair and may try a short if RSI falls below 70 on the hourly chart, depending on price behavior on the same.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—possible evening star
On the daily chart there is the possibility for an evening star candle formation. These patterns require an uptrend with a bullish candle. The second candle is a doji and the third closes well into the first bullish candle. In this case the last bullish candle is rather small. Today is the third candle and no conclusion can be drawn until it is complete. A high above .8419 means the pair is headed higher. The downtrend line on the daily chart is coming in at .8490 where it would make sense to short.
On the hourly chart (not shown) the pair has formed a hammer with a low of .8316. Dipping beneath this low would be suspicious and would be another possible area for a short.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No
part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the hourly chart (not shown) the pair has formed a hammer with a low of .8316. Dipping beneath this low would be suspicious and would be another possible area for a short.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No
part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—dull
I'm still long from .8593 and the AUDUSD is still basically going nowhere. It did dip to .8683 earlier this morning which is the lowest low since last Thursday although not by much.
There are some conflicting signals on the hourly and three-hour charts. Were I not long I wouldn't be trading this pair this morning because of this. However, looking at the daily chart, one could make the case for a double or triple Elliott Wave correction. There's also a triangle shaping up. The trend line of the triangle would cap price at .8775. I blogged yesterday that the weekly chart showed the 21 EMA at .8773. That would be a price, then, at which point it would make sense to try a short. If it breaks above there then the weekly rectangle would come into play at .8860. This price is the June 21 high and polarity. It's also supported by EW interpretations on the hourly chart which targets price at .8835 and fib retracements. (.8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move). The confirmed double bottom in this pair never achieved its price objective so just over .90 is also possible. However that's looking less likely. Should the pair begin to drop, .8510, .8316, .8133 and .8067 are support levels.
The bottom line seems to be that waiting for a short at either .8775 or .8860 is the thing to do.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There are some conflicting signals on the hourly and three-hour charts. Were I not long I wouldn't be trading this pair this morning because of this. However, looking at the daily chart, one could make the case for a double or triple Elliott Wave correction. There's also a triangle shaping up. The trend line of the triangle would cap price at .8775. I blogged yesterday that the weekly chart showed the 21 EMA at .8773. That would be a price, then, at which point it would make sense to try a short. If it breaks above there then the weekly rectangle would come into play at .8860. This price is the June 21 high and polarity. It's also supported by EW interpretations on the hourly chart which targets price at .8835 and fib retracements. (.8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move). The confirmed double bottom in this pair never achieved its price objective so just over .90 is also possible. However that's looking less likely. Should the pair begin to drop, .8510, .8316, .8133 and .8067 are support levels.
The bottom line seems to be that waiting for a short at either .8775 or .8860 is the thing to do.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—Bounce
I bought at 1.2550 after the close of the 4AM EST candle.
My reasons for doing so were primarily based on the hourly chart so this should be a short-term trade. The pair appeared to be trying to base at 1.2523, RSI had dipped slightly below 30 and come right back up, and there was positive divergence with RSI. In addition, one could trace five waves down from the high at 1.2722 so the next move could be corrective, in this case up. Euro did bounce rather quickly up but only about 40 pips. However. this was enough to allow me to move my stop to breakeven. I also took partial profits at + 40 pips.
Since the trade is on the hourly chart and thus expected to be short-lived, an easy target is .382 of the move from 1.2722 to 1.2523 which is 1.2599 or .5 of that move which is 1.2623. There's a short-term downtrend line at 1.2590. The move back to 1.26 has brought out sellers so it makes sense that the pair is hesitating here.
Within a larger context than the hourly chart, i.e. daily and weekly, another down move is possible—the issue may become where to go short. If I wasn't long and in profit I'd probably try a small short at 1.26.
Resistance is at 1.2600/14, 1.2740, 1.2765, 1.2800 and 1.3094. Support is at 1.2523, 1.2480, 1.2397, 1.2312 and 1.2152.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
My reasons for doing so were primarily based on the hourly chart so this should be a short-term trade. The pair appeared to be trying to base at 1.2523, RSI had dipped slightly below 30 and come right back up, and there was positive divergence with RSI. In addition, one could trace five waves down from the high at 1.2722 so the next move could be corrective, in this case up. Euro did bounce rather quickly up but only about 40 pips. However. this was enough to allow me to move my stop to breakeven. I also took partial profits at + 40 pips.
Since the trade is on the hourly chart and thus expected to be short-lived, an easy target is .382 of the move from 1.2722 to 1.2523 which is 1.2599 or .5 of that move which is 1.2623. There's a short-term downtrend line at 1.2590. The move back to 1.26 has brought out sellers so it makes sense that the pair is hesitating here.
Within a larger context than the hourly chart, i.e. daily and weekly, another down move is possible—the issue may become where to go short. If I wasn't long and in profit I'd probably try a small short at 1.26.
Resistance is at 1.2600/14, 1.2740, 1.2765, 1.2800 and 1.3094. Support is at 1.2523, 1.2480, 1.2397, 1.2312 and 1.2152.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, July 12, 2010
EURUSD—Weekly
My long from 1.2413 profit-stopped at 1.2554 for + 141 pips.
The weekly chart below shows my Elliott Wave count. The high of 1.2722 on Friday could have been the end of the A wave since it bumped into resistance from the weekly downtrend line. If so, the next move would be down. However it's possible that A could extend further to 1.2765 or 1.3099 so watching price action on the shorter term charts is important.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The weekly chart below shows my Elliott Wave count. The high of 1.2722 on Friday could have been the end of the A wave since it bumped into resistance from the weekly downtrend line. If so, the next move would be down. However it's possible that A could extend further to 1.2765 or 1.3099 so watching price action on the shorter term charts is important.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—weekly
My long from 1.5131 stopped at breakeven.
The 20 EMA on the weekly chart has been significant for this pair recently with it capping prices the weeks 4/16, 4/30 and 6/25. The last two weeks price has managed to climb above it but it closed this past Friday just below. The EMA is currently at 1.5064; the high so far today is 1.5086. Until this weekly EMA is definitely behind it, I don't think things look all that positive for the cable. The pair is also caught in a channel that's trending down. 1.5329 is the resistance line of this channel. If price ever gets there it would suggest a short position.
The low this morning of 1.4949 was almost at the price target from the double top I blogged about last week. Its climb up to 1.5086 looks as though it tried to retest the confirmation point of the double top (1.5081). On the shorter term charts the moves look somewhat corrective. This pair bears watching.
Resistance is at 1.5086, 1.5241, 1.5329, 1.5523 and 1.5816. Support is at 1.5017, 1.4949/, 1.4874, 1.4710, 1.4696, 1.4590 and 1.4550.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The 20 EMA on the weekly chart has been significant for this pair recently with it capping prices the weeks 4/16, 4/30 and 6/25. The last two weeks price has managed to climb above it but it closed this past Friday just below. The EMA is currently at 1.5064; the high so far today is 1.5086. Until this weekly EMA is definitely behind it, I don't think things look all that positive for the cable. The pair is also caught in a channel that's trending down. 1.5329 is the resistance line of this channel. If price ever gets there it would suggest a short position.
The low this morning of 1.4949 was almost at the price target from the double top I blogged about last week. Its climb up to 1.5086 looks as though it tried to retest the confirmation point of the double top (1.5081). On the shorter term charts the moves look somewhat corrective. This pair bears watching.
Resistance is at 1.5086, 1.5241, 1.5329, 1.5523 and 1.5816. Support is at 1.5017, 1.4949/, 1.4874, 1.4710, 1.4696, 1.4590 and 1.4550.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—weekly
I'm still long from .8593. I took partial profits at +130 pips.
There are two things of interest on the weekly chart. First is the 21 EMA at .8773 which seems to be serving as resistance. The other is the small rectangle within with the AUDUSD is trading. The resistance from this is .8860. Since the hourly chart appears to show the pair nearing the end of a C wave (I blogged on this last Thursday and there has been little movement since then) the .8861/81 could be the target. This makes a lot of sense given that .8835 is 1.618 of the A wave on the hourly chart; .8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move; and .8859 is a June 21 high and polarity and the top of this rectangle.
Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn’t show on it because I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charting:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There are two things of interest on the weekly chart. First is the 21 EMA at .8773 which seems to be serving as resistance. The other is the small rectangle within with the AUDUSD is trading. The resistance from this is .8860. Since the hourly chart appears to show the pair nearing the end of a C wave (I blogged on this last Thursday and there has been little movement since then) the .8861/81 could be the target. This makes a lot of sense given that .8835 is 1.618 of the A wave on the hourly chart; .8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move; and .8859 is a June 21 high and polarity and the top of this rectangle.
Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn’t show on it because I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charting:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Will post later today
Usually I post in the morning but I have a bit of an emergency this morning so I'll post later today.
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