I'm taking a break from blogging and most trading on Fridays during the summer. If you do trade watch out for lower liquidity,, especially as NY moves towards mid-day.
See you again, Monday.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Positions—update
My short from.8701 is profit-stopped and I took partial profits at +94 pips. It's near a strong support area right now.
GBPUSD finally dropped a bit. Before it did so, it took out my short from 1.5007 at breakeven. I shorted again at 1.4939. I took partial profits at +60 pips. I have a sell order in place if it bounces back up again but with a very tight stop. On the hourly chart it looks suspiciously as though it's an ABC correction with the C leg in play. This pair has been a challenge this week but unless it definitively clears 1.5012, I think it could still head lower.
I'm also short EURGBP and long USDCHF. I'll analyze them on Monday. I have an order in for Euro.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD finally dropped a bit. Before it did so, it took out my short from 1.5007 at breakeven. I shorted again at 1.4939. I took partial profits at +60 pips. I have a sell order in place if it bounces back up again but with a very tight stop. On the hourly chart it looks suspiciously as though it's an ABC correction with the C leg in play. This pair has been a challenge this week but unless it definitively clears 1.5012, I think it could still head lower.
I'm also short EURGBP and long USDCHF. I'll analyze them on Monday. I have an order in for Euro.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
AUDUSD—update
I had a sell order in that was executed at .8701. This was at the level of the short-term uptrend line I wrote about earlier. Price action is a bit raggedy and the market in general seems unfocused so we'll have to see what happens. However, the pair has moved down enough that I've moved my stop to breakeven.
Support is at .8642, .8551, .8506, .8426 and .8345. Resistance is at .8782, .8833, and .8859.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8642, .8551, .8506, .8426 and .8345. Resistance is at .8782, .8833, and .8859.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—hourly chart diamond pattern
I have closed out my short from yesterday at -16 pips and my one from 1.5007 is at breakeven. The pair may well head down but there's a rough diamond pattern forming on the hourly chart. When a breakout takes place from a diamond, the movement tends to be fast. Let's see what happens—it could be a stop and reverse will be in order if it breaks above. Perhaps I'll have time to add to my short position if it breaks down. I still tend to believe the pair is going to drop but the market will tell me soon and now I have no risk.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—back in a range
My short from .8764 profit-stopped at +39 pips.
What's interesting to me about this pair is it's now tiptoeing back into a range I blogged about in detail on June 17 of .8582 to .8674. The low so far this morning has been .8642. That post is at:
(http://forexreflections.blogspot.com/2010/06/audusdyesterdays-behavior-post-mortem.html)
It also broke below its short-term downtrend line from early June and .8737 was roughly the area that held price yesterday. (50% of the move from .9406 to .8067). At best the pair is unstable; at worst, a bigger correction is starting up.
I will probably look to sell rallies, possibly to the short-term uptrend line at .8703, if momentum stays weak as I believe a move back to the confirmation point of the double bottom at .8551 might be in the cards. The rounding top of yesterday's price action on the hourly chart is often a continuation pattern. On the other hand we still have the price potential of the double bottom at .9030 and there's slight positive divergence on the hourly chart.
Once again, this pair requires patience for an entry.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
What's interesting to me about this pair is it's now tiptoeing back into a range I blogged about in detail on June 17 of .8582 to .8674. The low so far this morning has been .8642. That post is at:
(http://forexreflections.blogspot.com/2010/06/audusdyesterdays-behavior-post-mortem.html)
It also broke below its short-term downtrend line from early June and .8737 was roughly the area that held price yesterday. (50% of the move from .9406 to .8067). At best the pair is unstable; at worst, a bigger correction is starting up.
I will probably look to sell rallies, possibly to the short-term uptrend line at .8703, if momentum stays weak as I believe a move back to the confirmation point of the double bottom at .8551 might be in the cards. The rounding top of yesterday's price action on the hourly chart is often a continuation pattern. On the other hand we still have the price potential of the double bottom at .9030 and there's slight positive divergence on the hourly chart.
Once again, this pair requires patience for an entry.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—break out? fake out?
The pair has rallied to a high so far this morning of 1.5012 (as of 8:03 AM EST). This means it broke over the top of its channel which is currently at 1.4976, over a daily speed line, and over a short-term downtrend line. The 89 SMA is at 1.4975 and GBPUSD is encountering a Fibonacci confluence zone. Regardless of what happens in the next day or so, one can easily see why price would stall here.
Stall or not, I blogged yesterday that I believed this area was a good shorting opportunity. I took a small position yesterday at 1.4969. Early this morning, a sell order was executed at 1.5007. I wrote, that what I was "hoping is that it continues up in price, achieves an RSI reading on the hourly chart of 70 or greater (thus becoming overbought in the short term) and then closes below 70. That would be an ideal sell signal."
The pair did exactly that yesterday afternoon. The result has not been a sustained downward move. This unhappy fact means that either my analysis is flawed or that the analysis is fine but it's not considering all that needs to be considered. Or, still unhappily, that the market is faking me out.
Since I also wrote yesterday that "the possibility of 1.5240/50 can't be ignored if the pair makes a sustained move above 1.4950 so any short would have to have a tight stop," I'm doing that. I'm not quite ready to bail out of my shorts (one is under water and one is positive about 20 pips) but I'm tightening stops and moving the most current one to breakeven while I take another look at this picture.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Stall or not, I blogged yesterday that I believed this area was a good shorting opportunity. I took a small position yesterday at 1.4969. Early this morning, a sell order was executed at 1.5007. I wrote, that what I was "hoping is that it continues up in price, achieves an RSI reading on the hourly chart of 70 or greater (thus becoming overbought in the short term) and then closes below 70. That would be an ideal sell signal."
The pair did exactly that yesterday afternoon. The result has not been a sustained downward move. This unhappy fact means that either my analysis is flawed or that the analysis is fine but it's not considering all that needs to be considered. Or, still unhappily, that the market is faking me out.
Since I also wrote yesterday that "the possibility of 1.5240/50 can't be ignored if the pair makes a sustained move above 1.4950 so any short would have to have a tight stop," I'm doing that. I'm not quite ready to bail out of my shorts (one is under water and one is positive about 20 pips) but I'm tightening stops and moving the most current one to breakeven while I take another look at this picture.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
EURUSD—.382 retracement
Euro hit a low of 1.2244, three pips above the .382 retracement of the rise from 1.1876 to 1.2467. That may be all she does before she starts upwards again but I still think the 1.2172 target is attractive. That would be 50% retracement. But there's a lot of support at the 1.2244 level—support, Fibonacci confluence, etc.
There's extreme negative sentiment against the Euro. When price dropped again after the rally to 1.2467, it plays into that mindset. If this is a B wave as, I blogged yesterday, then this is a characteristic of them—they're sucker plays. So if you're shorting you have to use tight stops.
I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2285. I had a short from 1.2267 but it was stopped yesterday for -30 pips.
Support is at 1.2241, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2318, 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There's extreme negative sentiment against the Euro. When price dropped again after the rally to 1.2467, it plays into that mindset. If this is a B wave as, I blogged yesterday, then this is a characteristic of them—they're sucker plays. So if you're shorting you have to use tight stops.
I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2285. I had a short from 1.2267 but it was stopped yesterday for -30 pips.
Support is at 1.2241, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2318, 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—waffling
I'm still short from.8764. The short I added at .8753 was stopped at -20 pips.
Now that AUDUSD has formed a hammer candle on the hourly chart at the low of .8672 (support) and is rallying from there, we'll have to wait to see how it behaves when it gets back to .8737 (50% of the move from .9406 to .8067). The pair is overall bullish (what else is new?) so, even though I believe a more serious correction is overdue, it may pop back up. There is still a confirmed double bottom with a price target of .9030. On the other hand, the pair is edging lower and time and price are out of synch. It would not be illogical to expect a return to the confirmation point of the double bottom at .8551. Bottom line here is that this requires patience to see what will unfold.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Now that AUDUSD has formed a hammer candle on the hourly chart at the low of .8672 (support) and is rallying from there, we'll have to wait to see how it behaves when it gets back to .8737 (50% of the move from .9406 to .8067). The pair is overall bullish (what else is new?) so, even though I believe a more serious correction is overdue, it may pop back up. There is still a confirmed double bottom with a price target of .9030. On the other hand, the pair is edging lower and time and price are out of synch. It would not be illogical to expect a return to the confirmation point of the double bottom at .8551. Bottom line here is that this requires patience to see what will unfold.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—rallying
The pair is continuing its rally with a high so far this morning of 1.4917.
Overall, the move looks corrective and I still believe it may create a good shorting opportunity. The top of the daily channel is at 1.4927. There's a daily speed line at this price level, the downtrend line from the January high is coming in 1.4920 and there's a Fibonacci confluence zone above this on up to about 1.4975. For what it's worth, the 89 SMA on the daily chart is at 1.4979 as well.
It's starting to struggle a bit now but what I'm hoping is that it continues up in price, achieves an RSI reading on the hourly chart of 70 or greater (thus becoming overbought in the short term) and then closes below 70. That would be an ideal sell signal. I have several meetings today so I hope I catch it if it occurs.
The possibility of 1.5240/50 can't be ignored if the pair makes a sustained move above 1.4950 so any short would have to have a tight stop.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Overall, the move looks corrective and I still believe it may create a good shorting opportunity. The top of the daily channel is at 1.4927. There's a daily speed line at this price level, the downtrend line from the January high is coming in 1.4920 and there's a Fibonacci confluence zone above this on up to about 1.4975. For what it's worth, the 89 SMA on the daily chart is at 1.4979 as well.
It's starting to struggle a bit now but what I'm hoping is that it continues up in price, achieves an RSI reading on the hourly chart of 70 or greater (thus becoming overbought in the short term) and then closes below 70. That would be an ideal sell signal. I have several meetings today so I hope I catch it if it occurs.
The possibility of 1.5240/50 can't be ignored if the pair makes a sustained move above 1.4950 so any short would have to have a tight stop.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
GBPJPY—update
Just like with the cable, this pair has formed a pennant. I'll wait to short for now as it could exceed 134.75 and take it back to its uptrend line from early June.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—15-minute pennant
The pair has formed a pennant on the 15-minute chart which, if it breaks above, should result in the pair achieving a minimum price target of 1.4928. That gets it much closer to the top of the channel I blogged about in my last post. Notice this steep ascent, though.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—setting up for a short
Yesterday's candle was a doji star and I wasn't sure Cable would rally but it's back on track to approach the top of the daily channel, currently located at 1.4950. What adds to the appeal as a short is that there is a Fibonacci confluence zone above it at 1.4975, a downtrend line coming in at 1.4920 and some moving average resistance. Before it gets there it has to get through the nearby confluence at 1.4865, but if it can't do so that might be a good short as well. Cable is currently bid at 1.4848 as of 11:53 AM EST.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—weak
The remainder of my short from 135.48 profit-stopped out this morning for 134.48 for +100 pips. The additional shorts I established yesterday all stopped at breakeven. Once it hit the high of 134.58 a few minutes ago, it immediately started to falter. The fact that the pair took out the June 17th low of 133.54 is also negative as it means a lower low. Since it's back up at this level I'm going to look for shorting opportunities up to about 134.75.
AUSUSD Chart
Here's the chart I couldn't post earlier showing my short positions.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Euro Chart
Here's the chart I couldn't post earlier showing my short positions.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—stalling at 50%
Yesterday afternoon I took partial profits on my short from .8842 at +58 pips. The remainder was then taken out in last evening's spike up for +15 pips. I had one other short from yesterday at .8764 which is still intact and I added another today at .8753.
.8737 is 50% of the move from .9406 to .8067 so I'd expect some stalling here. The low so far has been .8742. There's also a short-term uptrend line at .8717 so the pair really needs to break below the .88 level to resume its downtrend. It also needs to break below 40 in RSI.
The pair closed down yesterday which is negative but you don't need me to tell you that. Another down day for gold will probably mean another down day for this commodity currency as well. Time and price are out of synch as I blogged about yesterday. However, there are still a lot of people long the Aussie who don't want to give up. On the hourly chart, the candles are forming smaller real bodies and throwing off shadows. This hints at indecision. Remember there is still a confirmed double bottom with a price target of .9030. A stop and reverse has to remain a possibility.
Resistance is at .8814, .8859, .8895 (.618 retracement of .9406 to .8067, polarity, near daily speed line), .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at .8737/17, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.
I'll have to post the chart later since I need to reboot.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
.8737 is 50% of the move from .9406 to .8067 so I'd expect some stalling here. The low so far has been .8742. There's also a short-term uptrend line at .8717 so the pair really needs to break below the .88 level to resume its downtrend. It also needs to break below 40 in RSI.
The pair closed down yesterday which is negative but you don't need me to tell you that. Another down day for gold will probably mean another down day for this commodity currency as well. Time and price are out of synch as I blogged about yesterday. However, there are still a lot of people long the Aussie who don't want to give up. On the hourly chart, the candles are forming smaller real bodies and throwing off shadows. This hints at indecision. Remember there is still a confirmed double bottom with a price target of .9030. A stop and reverse has to remain a possibility.
Resistance is at .8814, .8859, .8895 (.618 retracement of .9406 to .8067, polarity, near daily speed line), .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at .8737/17, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.
I'll have to post the chart later since I need to reboot.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—B wave
It's likely that yesterday's high of 1.2467 will hold for another day or so as long as Euro continues to work out its short-term drop within the larger weekly correction. Yesterday's close was negative and one can see that the recent rally could be an A wave of an ABC correction with B underway. There's negative divergence on the three-hour chart (which will work itself out as the B wave continues).
An attractive target is 1.2172 which is 50% of the move up from 1.1876 to 1.2467. It's also polarity and has recently been an area of support. As a result, after taking partial profits at +100 pips, I just added to my short from yesterday. So I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2267.
Support is at 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
I can't get a chart into blogger which will require rebooting on my part so I'll post it later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
An attractive target is 1.2172 which is 50% of the move up from 1.1876 to 1.2467. It's also polarity and has recently been an area of support. As a result, after taking partial profits at +100 pips, I just added to my short from yesterday. So I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2267.
Support is at 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
I can't get a chart into blogger which will require rebooting on my part so I'll post it later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, June 21, 2010
GBPJPY—update
I took some partial profits as the pair is nearing the uptrend line on the hourly chart for +118 pips. As you can see on the chart, I also established some new shorts. I've moved the stop to breakeven so I may lose them but the pressure is downward for now. However if it bounces from the uptrend line this may change.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—Weekly
The weekly chart of the Guppy shows the 13EMA has capped it three times in the last six weeks. Looking back prior to that however, one can see that when the pair exceeded the EMA it went to the top of the corrective rectangle before dropping back. So one could short as I did this morning at
135.48 or wait until the pair reaches 141.50/142. In either case, the stop can be tight. Mine's already at breakeven but I may add another position depending on price action in the next hour or so.
At 142 there is additional resistance from the daily chart with a speed line and a downtrend line from Aug. '09. The momentum, as represented by RSI on the weekly chart, isn't showing a lot of oomph. That will have to change if there's going to be a correction back to the 163 area. Regardless, that's tomorrow's problem.
Support is at 133.54, 132.69, 130.42, 129.89, 129.08, 127.66 and 126.73. Then there's the bottom of the weekly channel at 122.90. Resistance is at 136.03, 136.48, 137.67, 137.99, 140.34, 141.50, and 142.00. If it breaks above that then I'll put out new resistance levels.
Here's the weekly chart. You can't see my trade from 135.48 because I use a different charting package for longer term charting:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
135.48 or wait until the pair reaches 141.50/142. In either case, the stop can be tight. Mine's already at breakeven but I may add another position depending on price action in the next hour or so.
At 142 there is additional resistance from the daily chart with a speed line and a downtrend line from Aug. '09. The momentum, as represented by RSI on the weekly chart, isn't showing a lot of oomph. That will have to change if there's going to be a correction back to the 163 area. Regardless, that's tomorrow's problem.
Support is at 133.54, 132.69, 130.42, 129.89, 129.08, 127.66 and 126.73. Then there's the bottom of the weekly channel at 122.90. Resistance is at 136.03, 136.48, 137.67, 137.99, 140.34, 141.50, and 142.00. If it breaks above that then I'll put out new resistance levels.
Here's the weekly chart. You can't see my trade from 135.48 because I use a different charting package for longer term charting:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—some conflicting signals
Picking up the AUDUSD where I left off on Thursday….the pair reached a high of .8859 this morning. I sold at .8842 after it started to falter. This was an attractive level for selling although it gave me some heartburn to do so, primarily because there are some conflicting signals on the charts. I've already moved stops to breakeven. Justification for selling was that the faltering began just under .8895. That price is a .618 retracement of the entire move down from .9406 to .8067 as well as being polarity and near a speed line on the daily chart. That's good resistance. There's also some negative divergence on the hourly chart. But we'll see. For a pair I've taken hundreds of pips in profit from this month, I'm not going to be too unhappy if I'm stopped out at breakeven. If I am, then looking closer at momentum will be the key to deciding what to do.
What about the conflicting signals? The pair is forming bullish candles without much in the way of lower shadows. The USD looks as though it's correcting. Gold hasn't really started declining. And remember there was a confirmed double bottom on the chart. The price target for that is .9030. Another potential target is close below that which is the 200 day MA at .8983. I've also had recent buy signals on my point and figure chart. So those are reasons to reverse if price starts back up with good momentum.
One other note. Price moved down from the high of .9406 in November to a low of .8067 on 25 May. This took 190 days calendar days or 73% of the time of the up move from early March '09 to November '09. The high today of .8859 is an almost .618 retracement (which would be .8895). It achieved this in 27 days or only 14% of the time it took to drop. Let's see, a retracement in price of essentially .618 in 14% of the time. Does something seem out of whack?
Resistance is at .8895, .8859, .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at 88.00, .8728/07, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
What about the conflicting signals? The pair is forming bullish candles without much in the way of lower shadows. The USD looks as though it's correcting. Gold hasn't really started declining. And remember there was a confirmed double bottom on the chart. The price target for that is .9030. Another potential target is close below that which is the 200 day MA at .8983. I've also had recent buy signals on my point and figure chart. So those are reasons to reverse if price starts back up with good momentum.
One other note. Price moved down from the high of .9406 in November to a low of .8067 on 25 May. This took 190 days calendar days or 73% of the time of the up move from early March '09 to November '09. The high today of .8859 is an almost .618 retracement (which would be .8895). It achieved this in 27 days or only 14% of the time it took to drop. Let's see, a retracement in price of essentially .618 in 14% of the time. Does something seem out of whack?
Resistance is at .8895, .8859, .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at 88.00, .8728/07, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—Weekly
The weekly chart shows the Euro correcting. There is resistance coming in at two points which should cap the up move. The first is the downtrend line coming in at 1.2741. Close to this is the weekly 13 EMA which has been supporting or capping since early May. This is currently at 1.2701. However, I don't expect it will get there all at once—there will probably be another correction, possibly to 1.2167—before Euro sees 1.27. The high so far today (as of 10:03 AM EST) is 1.2467. There's still an abundance of negative sentiment around the Euro and even this morning's strong US equity market open hasn't lifted it.
Support is at 1.2349, 1.2203 (20 Daily SMA), 1.2167/50, 1.2117 and 1.2045/25. Resistance (short-term) is at 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701 and 1.2741.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.2349, 1.2203 (20 Daily SMA), 1.2167/50, 1.2117 and 1.2045/25. Resistance (short-term) is at 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701 and 1.2741.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USD Index—Daily
OK, now that the USD Index made the high that I blogged about throughout May, it is correcting downward. How far could it go?
Using a simple correction of down to the uptrend line would target 83.75. Using Elliott Wave (EW), one could expect a correction to take an ABC formation with A already underway. One guideline (not a rule) is that the prior fourth wave low could be a target which would be 85.13. That would also be about 75% of the move up from the May 10th hammer low at 84.16. There would then be a move up for wave B and then wave C would take it down further, possibly to the uptrend line. As it unfolds over the next few days, I'll be able to refine this. There's an EW count on the weekly chart that hints it could go lower but let's not worry about that yet. Finally, one could look at a 50% retracement of the move up from November which would bring it to 81.44 but that’s too extreme for right now.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Using a simple correction of down to the uptrend line would target 83.75. Using Elliott Wave (EW), one could expect a correction to take an ABC formation with A already underway. One guideline (not a rule) is that the prior fourth wave low could be a target which would be 85.13. That would also be about 75% of the move up from the May 10th hammer low at 84.16. There would then be a move up for wave B and then wave C would take it down further, possibly to the uptrend line. As it unfolds over the next few days, I'll be able to refine this. There's an EW count on the weekly chart that hints it could go lower but let's not worry about that yet. Finally, one could look at a 50% retracement of the move up from November which would bring it to 81.44 but that’s too extreme for right now.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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