Overall, the move looks corrective and I still believe it may create a good shorting opportunity. The top of the daily channel is at 1.4927. There's a daily speed line at this price level, the downtrend line from the January high is coming in 1.4920 and there's a Fibonacci confluence zone above this on up to about 1.4975. For what it's worth, the 89 SMA on the daily chart is at 1.4979 as well.
It's starting to struggle a bit now but what I'm hoping is that it continues up in price, achieves an RSI reading on the hourly chart of 70 or greater (thus becoming overbought in the short term) and then closes below 70. That would be an ideal sell signal. I have several meetings today so I hope I catch it if it occurs.
The possibility of 1.5240/50 can't be ignored if the pair makes a sustained move above 1.4950 so any short would have to have a tight stop.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
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