AUDUSD—stalling at 50%

Yesterday afternoon I took partial profits on my short from .8842 at +58 pips. The remainder was then taken out in last evening's spike up for +15 pips. I had one other short from yesterday at .8764 which is still intact and I added another today at .8753.

.8737 is 50% of the move from .9406 to .8067 so I'd expect some stalling here. The low so far has been .8742. There's also a short-term uptrend line at .8717 so the pair really needs to break below the .88 level to resume its downtrend. It also needs to break below 40 in RSI.

The pair closed down yesterday which is negative but you don't need me to tell you that. Another down day for gold will probably mean another down day for this commodity currency as well. Time and price are out of synch as I blogged about yesterday. However, there are still a lot of people long the Aussie who don't want to give up. On the hourly chart, the candles are forming smaller real bodies and throwing off shadows. This hints at indecision. Remember there is still a confirmed double bottom with a price target of .9030. A stop and reverse has to remain a possibility.

Resistance is at .8814, .8859, .8895 (.618 retracement of .9406 to .8067, polarity, near daily speed line), .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at .8737/17, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.

I'll have to post the chart later since I need to reboot.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

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