Friday, September 10, 2010
Thursday, September 9, 2010
GBPUSD—Daily bull flag
Cable is continuing its bull flag on the daily chart and even though there are some conflicting signals I'm trading it that way for now. I made this decision within the larger context of the monthly chart's symmetrical triangle which has the potential for higher prices before it drops down again. The pair broke through some good resistance in the 1.54 to 1.55 area before touching 1.5533. It then retraced to 1.5377, almost 50% of the last leg up of 1.5297 to 1.5533. There it seemed to base, near a more significant .382 retracement.
I just bought at 1.5433.
The 1.5998 August 6th high is seen as the end of a corrective move so I don't expect it to get above that. Other targets, though, take it to the 1.60/1.61 price zone. Meanwhile, resistance is still above at 1.5474/88 (the daily 50 and 20 SMA), 1.5500, 1.5533, and 1.5600. Support is at 1.5400, 1.5377, 1.5304/5297, 1.5235, and 1.5132.
I'm having trouble getting the chart in again today so I'll try again after rebooting.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I just bought at 1.5433.
The 1.5998 August 6th high is seen as the end of a corrective move so I don't expect it to get above that. Other targets, though, take it to the 1.60/1.61 price zone. Meanwhile, resistance is still above at 1.5474/88 (the daily 50 and 20 SMA), 1.5500, 1.5533, and 1.5600. Support is at 1.5400, 1.5377, 1.5304/5297, 1.5235, and 1.5132.
I'm having trouble getting the chart in again today so I'll try again after rebooting.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—doing nothing
Euro is basically treading water and going nowhere for now. That won't continue so all one can do is wait for it to break out of this narrow range of 1.2659 to 1.2754. A rally up to a retest of 1.29 level is still possible but longer-term expect that it will resume its drop. No need to post a chart since nothing has changed since yesterday. Resistance is at 1.2755/75, 1.2833, 1.2918/30 and 1.3000. Support is at 1..2674/59, 1.2626, 1.2588 and 1.2523.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—Overcame .9222 resistance
I'm still long from .8913 with my profit stop set at 200 pips over the entry.
Meanwhile, as I wrote yesterday, it did try to overcome the resistance at .9222 and has touched .9261 this morning. This move has triggered a buy signal on my Point and Figure (P&F) 3-hour chart which I take fairly seriously. From the P&F chart, I have price targets on this chart up to .9420/50. From the daily channel on the normal price chart one could see the pair reaching .9460. These are not unreasonable if the pair can maintain its upward movement. It's important to keep in mind, though, that there is also significant resistance at and above .9300 (.9312, .9364). Best strategy now seems to be to add to my position on a pullback, possibly to .9222/.9185. Support is at .9222, .9200, .9185/70, .9092, .9067. .8911, and .8872/61.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Meanwhile, as I wrote yesterday, it did try to overcome the resistance at .9222 and has touched .9261 this morning. This move has triggered a buy signal on my Point and Figure (P&F) 3-hour chart which I take fairly seriously. From the P&F chart, I have price targets on this chart up to .9420/50. From the daily channel on the normal price chart one could see the pair reaching .9460. These are not unreasonable if the pair can maintain its upward movement. It's important to keep in mind, though, that there is also significant resistance at and above .9300 (.9312, .9364). Best strategy now seems to be to add to my position on a pullback, possibly to .9222/.9185. Support is at .9222, .9200, .9185/70, .9092, .9067. .8911, and .8872/61.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
EURUSD—based
Euro seems to have hammered out a base on the hourly chart in the 1.2659/79 zone and the 1.2659 low was a hammer. Since then it has touched of 1.2743 which is near the daily 10 SMA. A rally up to a retest of the 1.29 level is possible and I just bought at 1.2724. I'll move my stop to breakeven as quickly as possible and take some profits (if they come) at 1.2775 since it may stumble there.
All trades carry risk and this one is no exception. I can make a case for shorting here but there is more positive sentiment this morning and there are short-term technical signals that support the buy both on the normal price charts and on my 3-hour point and figure chart. The ability to set such a tight stop was certainly a factor.
Resistance is at 1.2755/75, 1.2833, 1.2918/30 and 1.3000. Support is at 1..2674/59, 1.2626, 1.2588 and 1.2523.
I can't get the chart into the blog right now. I'll post it later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
All trades carry risk and this one is no exception. I can make a case for shorting here but there is more positive sentiment this morning and there are short-term technical signals that support the buy both on the normal price charts and on my 3-hour point and figure chart. The ability to set such a tight stop was certainly a factor.
Resistance is at 1.2755/75, 1.2833, 1.2918/30 and 1.3000. Support is at 1..2674/59, 1.2626, 1.2588 and 1.2523.
I can't get the chart into the blog right now. I'll post it later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—Back at resistance
I'm still long from .8913.
The pair has touched .9182 so far this morning. This is 4 pips higher than the previous high at.9178 Monday. Next goal is above .9222 but beyond that it really needs to close above .9300 for continued climbs. I've already lightened my position enough at good profits so all I can do now is move the stop.
In the short-term, I think it's going to try to overcome this resistance. The price zone has been small beneath the resistance and this usually denotes strength. In the hourly time frame a potential C wave in progress could carry price to .9185.
On the daily chart the pair is within the upward channel I wrote about yesterday. (The weekly and hourly chart also shows upward channels). The top of this channel is at .9450. Sellers would swarm in at that price but that's still a bit of a distance and there are various resistance points along the way. After .9185 there's .9222, .9300 and .9364.
Support is at .9092, .9067. .8911, and .8872/61.
Here's the 1-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair has touched .9182 so far this morning. This is 4 pips higher than the previous high at.9178 Monday. Next goal is above .9222 but beyond that it really needs to close above .9300 for continued climbs. I've already lightened my position enough at good profits so all I can do now is move the stop.
In the short-term, I think it's going to try to overcome this resistance. The price zone has been small beneath the resistance and this usually denotes strength. In the hourly time frame a potential C wave in progress could carry price to .9185.
On the daily chart the pair is within the upward channel I wrote about yesterday. (The weekly and hourly chart also shows upward channels). The top of this channel is at .9450. Sellers would swarm in at that price but that's still a bit of a distance and there are various resistance points along the way. After .9185 there's .9222, .9300 and .9364.
Support is at .9092, .9067. .8911, and .8872/61.
Here's the 1-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
AUDUSD—Failed at .9178
I'm still long from .8913 and just took partial profits of +222 pips. On the daily chart you can see the upward sloping channel but the pair failed at .9178 yesterday, a lower high than the previous .9222. If AUDUSD has any bullish mojo it needs to get moving above these tops. Support is at .9092, .9067. .8911, and .8872/61.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—update
Out at -30 pips. Euro made a low of 1.2699. Price and momentum behavior over the next hour will be interesting to watch.
EURUSD—at support
The Euro achieved 1.2918 yesterday which was well within what I identified as a target last week, assuming it was in wave C. Wave C would then have been 1.618 * wave A. Because this happened on the holiday I didn't short. It has since fallen to a low of 1.2736, dropping through the 10- and 20-day daily SMA at 1.2761/71. For the past three hours it has been trying to base. This is .618 of the August 31 to September 6 high and 50% of the move from 1.2151 to 1.3335. One would expect stalling. I also think it's possible for a rally here, possibly to a retest of the 1.29 level. I bought at 1.2760 since the stop can be tight. However, this may be a stop and reverse situation.
Resistance is at 1.2761/71, 1.2833, 1.2918/30 and 1.3000. Support is at 1.2736, 1.2675/63, 1.2626, and 1.2588.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance is at 1.2761/71, 1.2833, 1.2918/30 and 1.3000. Support is at 1.2736, 1.2675/63, 1.2626, and 1.2588.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—clutching .382 support
What was left of my long stopped out at +10 pips in the move down from 1.5490. It's currently clutching the .382 retracement of the move from 1.4228 to 1.5998 and has actually dipped slightly below it with a low so far of 1.5304. The 50% line is at 1.5113. That's near the downward sloping channel line and the 100-day simple moving average. If one buys that scenario then shorting a rally or selling a decisive break of 1.53 are the way to go. There is positive divergence on the three-hour chart so a rally may be coming.
All this is happening within a larger monthly picture of a symmetrical triangle whose bottom, up-sloping line is in at 1.4431 and whose upper down-sloping line is at 1.6272. That leaves lots of room for price movement.
Resistance is at 1.5371, 1.5437, and 1.5492/1.5500. Support is at 1.5304, 1.5281, 1.5235, and 1.5113.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
All this is happening within a larger monthly picture of a symmetrical triangle whose bottom, up-sloping line is in at 1.4431 and whose upper down-sloping line is at 1.6272. That leaves lots of room for price movement.
Resistance is at 1.5371, 1.5437, and 1.5492/1.5500. Support is at 1.5304, 1.5281, 1.5235, and 1.5113.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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