USDCHF—still at resistance

1.0630 is the high so far today. As has been true the last few days, moving averages are proving to be resistance. The 10- and 21-day SMA are both around 1.0627. A short here could have a tight stop. If it can cleanly close above these then one would probably want to try a long for a potential target of 1.0763. The 100 SMA is still serving as support, currently at 1.0567.

Here's the daily chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—near key support

I'm still long from 1.3308.

From the high yesterday of 1.3679 the pair has dropped to a low of 1.3492 so far today. This is still a support area but it's quite a bit below the confirmed double bottom price of 1.3591. It doesn't look as though the pair is going to get above 1.3692, the high Monday.

1.3467/77 is a strong support area for this pair. It's .618 of the move up from 1.3267 to 1.3692 as well as being the location of the 21 SMA on the daily chart. Just below from 1.3430 up is strong price support going back to 2009. If it begins to drop below, I'd sell (my long will be profit stopped out at 1.3463). On the other hand if the current candle forming on the chart makes a hammer, I may add to my long.

Here's the three-hour chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USD Index

Taking a look at the dollar index, I noted on April 8th that the index needs to climb above 82 for one to make a strong bullish case. It hasn't done that yet and the chart is messy—as many of them are—with the four doji before the bullish candle yesterday. Yesterday's high, though, was 80.19 which was below that of 80.51 the day before. It's low wasn't quite as low at 80.15 compared to 80.03 Wednesday. The bottom line is that the index must stay above 80.03 which is approximately a .786 retracement of the move from the low March 17 (79.51) to the high on March 25 of 82.18. Ideally, the pair will close above 80.51 today. This messiness will clear up at some point.











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—in triangle

A nice deep dip took out what was left of my long for +10 pips. I'm really glad I took profits yesterday on most of it.

The 3-hour chart is a tad messy. Yesterday's high of 1.5523 was followed by a drop to 1.5366 from which it has rebounded to 1.5474. There's a triangle formation and the pair may break out of it today or early next week.

The hammer low that I wrote about yesterday on the hourly chart was at 1.5386. This has technically dipped below that so it's bearish behavior. On the other hand, it wasn't by much so the area essentially has served as support again today. Also in play is the fact that the pair is still in an uptrend from the double bottom lows of 1.4785 and 1.4798 and that it's nowhere close to achieving the price target from that double bottom. Weigh this against the fact that it could be a wave four correction playing out and you're basically left with no clear answer as to direction.

If you're aggressive, which I sometimes am, you'd want to short. Overall I'm bearish on this pair. However, my plan, for the moment, is to wait for some definitive action from the triangle. Dropping below the 1.5366 or above the 1.5523 would be significant.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—update

Although it's up from its lows this morning, I've taken some more profits at +123 pips.
Now the pair has to exceed 1.5523 to make bulls at all comforable.

USDCHF—met strong resistance

My long from 1.0538 stopped out at breakeven yesterday. The pair has fallen back from its high of 1.0613 today, right at the level I blogged about yesterday where I said it would run into serious resistance from the moving averages. So it did. Had I been more alert to it this morning I would have shorted. I may still if it can get another little bounce and then falter there. I'd take another long if it could close neatly above that.

Basically, though, the USD is still trying to find a direction and its dip below 80.08 yesterday was disappointing to dollar bulls. However neither the pound or the Euro really were able to take advantage of that weakness so things are still unclear.

With the Swissy, the 100SMA on the daily chart seems to be providing support at 1.0509 (low so far today is 1.0513). The 200 daily SMA 1.0466 and the 4/1 low at 1.0435 are additional support. If it can get above 1.0613 (cleanly and decisively) then 1.0763 is possible.

Here's the daily chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—a sorry pair

I'm still in my long from 1.3308. With a doji on the daily chart from Tuesday, the pair dropped to a low of 1.3522 so far today, taking it below the low of earlier this week. Not good. Also bearish is that it hasn't been able to achieve its early week high of 1.3692. I'll write again what I've already written several times—you have to be careful with this pair because of the cyclical pressures on it as well as negative sentiment in general. The 1.3692 high could have been part of a wave four formation and while there may be a slight push higher (possibly 1.3656), it could then drop further, picking up its overall downtrend. If so, shorting from that level would be the right way to go.

I wrote yesterday that the double bottom at 1.3267/83 was confirmed at 1.3591. Now that it has dropped to 1.3522 is it still plausible that it might achieve its profit target from this? If so, it's going to have to definitively close above 1.3692 and soon. If you believe that's possible a long is the way to go with stops below 1.3522. Since it's currently offered at 1.3544, that's a very tight stop. But caution is the watch word. Certainly a drop below 1.3509/.3485 would be devestating to the bulls.















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—fell back from 1.5523

Very interesting behavior in this pair. As I hypothesized in the chart from Tuesday's blog, circle C of the wave four correction may not be over for this pair. I calculated that it could extend to 1.5681 to 1.5763. Yesterday it reached a high of 1.5508 which, if it does nothing else, negates those who believe wave 4 ended with the push up to 1.5486 earlier this week. Still, that's a long ways from 1.5681. Then too, since that high, the pair has fallen back, reaching a low of 1.5386. It's not too surprising that was the low since that is support (yesterday I identified the first level at 1.5376). What's interesting is that the push from the 3/25 low at 1.4798 (721 pips) was 1.23% that of the prior decline into the 1.4798.

For all intents and purposes, the pair had a double bottom at 1.4785 and 1.4798 with 1.5382 being the confirmation point. By reaching above that point the double bottom is confirmed. The price target from that double bottom was 1.5979. Hmmph. It doesn't look remotely possible right now, correct? If by some chance it got to that level it's going to find fierce resistance. But I doubt it will if for no other reason than that would invalidate an overall wave count that looks pretty solid. While things are looking weaker this morning, it still could achieve the 1.5681 to 1.5763. What would put that more in doubt is if the pair goes below the hammer it formed on the hourly chart (below 1.5386). It's not a perfect hammer because the upper shadow is a bit long but it did form at a support level. Additional support is at 1.5330 and 1.5130. Resistance is at 1.5486, 1.5523, 1.5576, 1.5652 and 1.5681.

For now, what's left of my long from 1.5371 is still intact and profit stopped at 1.5381. However, I'm willing to reverse and go short should the picture become more bearish.

Here's the hourly chart:
















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—update

I took partial profits at +70 pips as it's beginning to approach this morning's high.

April High/Lows

These are the high/lows to date for April. An asterisk next to a number means it is a higher high or lower low than for quarter one.

AUDUSD: .9347*/.9156
EURCHF: 1.4466/1.4145*
EURJPY: 127.94/123.44
EURUSD: 1.3692/1.3283
GBPCHF: 1.6516/1.5950
GBPJPY: 144.74/140.97
GBPUSD: 1.5486/1.5130
USDCAD: 1.0145/.9962*
USDCHF: 1.0786/1.0435
USDJPY: 94.69*/92.57
USDTRY: 1.5224/1.4781
USDZAR: 7.3591/7.1960*

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCHF—at intesting levels

I placed a small long trade at 1.0538 this morning, in part because the pair is near an interesting support level. That said, the best supports are near 1.0435 (the 4/1 low) and 1.0467 (the 200 daily SMA). 1.0498 is the 100 SMA. So if I get stopped out I may try again in the 1.04s.

Topside pressure is also coming in from a number of moving averages. The 21- and 10-SMA are at 1.0623/31. The 13- and 55-EMA are at 1.0613/10. This means I'll lighten my long considerably as it nears those levels—if it nears those levels. The USD is trying to find a direction so we'll have to see.

Here's the 3-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD--quiet

I'm still long from 1.3308. The long I took out yesterday stopped at breakeven. Movement has been within a narrow range of 1.3545 to 1.3692, its high Monday after the gap open on Sunday. This represents indecision on the part of traders (what is new?).

There was a double bottom at 1.3267/83 and the neck was at 1.3591. Yesterday's drop to below the neck at 1.3545 is not completely negative because it could be a throwback prior to gaining strength for another move up. But if that rise is going to take place the pair must get above 1.3692.

It's currently sitting just below a short-term uptrend line on the hourly chart and is curently offered at 1.3604. However, be careful with this pair as it's undergoing cyclical pressure and it could be ready to begin a wave five down. Keep stops tight. If someone went long here, stops should be below 1.3545 which is not all that tight and a very obvious target. Probably it's bettter to wait for additional pullbacks or a break above 1.3692.

Here's the hourly chart:













Copyright Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—still below 1.5486

Lots of chatter out there about how this pair might push up to 1.5500. As my analysis yesterday made clear, there is room for a move as far as 1.5681 to 1.5763. However, it's still hovering below its 1.5486 high from earlier this week. With the drop down to a low of 1.5350 yesterday a long looked more attractive and I did go long at 1.5371. It's reached a high of 1.5454 this morning but has since fallen back a bit. One can make a case that it's consolidating within a triangle on the three-hour chart.

Support is at 1.5376, 1.5337 and 1.5130. Resistance is at 1.5454, 1.5486, 1.5576, and 1.5681. Exceeding 1.5681 would give it a shot at 1.5763.

Here's the three-our chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—stalled

This pair has gone almost nowhere since I blogged yesterday about it. Yesterday, the pair had a high of 1.3692 and a low of 1.3566 and it closed near the low at 1.3575. This is bearish. There are also cyclical pressures on the Euro which imply further lows. I'm still long from 1.3308 and added to that position yesterday. If the Euro can't break above 1.3692 then it's probably time to begin shorting again. Similarly, a solid close below 1.3556 would indicate that it may be declining again.

GBPUSD—Daily EW count

On the daily chart below I've traced out an Elliott Wave (EW) count. You can see that one could make the case that the pair is completing or has completed a three wave correction (wave 4) off the wave three low at 1.4785. As a matter of fact it's almost a classic looking count. However, is circle c over? Looking at the nature of the correction, it could be a zigzag and circle c could extend further. A guideline is that c of a zigzag is often about the same length of a but it has already exceeded that and could go further. If it does, I calculate that it could end from 1.5681 to 1.5763. At those levels the probability for a successful short is very high. If circle c has indeed ended, and some believe it has, then the price cannot exceed 1.5486. The pair is currently at 1.5428. A short here would have to have its stop above that point which isn't egregious and the potential payoff is good (back to at least 1.4785). A long would ideally place the stop below 1.5337 so the risk is a great deal more (this is all calculated off the daily chart—shorter term charts show a different story).

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—waffling

It's tempting to go bearish on this pair but the reality is that right now it's waffling. A look at the daily shows it is staying above the downtrend line that is coming in from November. As long as it stays above .9215 this will be true. However, while it may be hanging around trying to build strength for another run at .9406, resistance there is going to be fierce. Trying a long position here is a bit risky. The risk is less if it clears .9300. Unfortunately, a case can be made in the short term for shorting rallies as well. It's probably best to stand aside until there's a clearer picture.

Support is at .9249, .9229, .9202 (strong), .9166 and .9131. Resistance is at .9300, .9389, .9406 and .9427. If it somehow clears that then look out. It may eventually achieve its 2008 high of .9851. But clearing .9406 will be tough.

Here's the daily chart:



















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—update

The pair has continued its pullback but formed a hammer on the hourly chart with a low of .9253. One could try a long with a tight stop. If the hammer bottom doesn't hold, I'd get out of it.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—took profit

My long from .9264 hit its profit target at .9335 on Friday for +71 pips. Normally, I'd have moved the target but I didn't trade Friday.

A look at the weekly chart shows that it reached .9347 on Friday which surpassed the prior two highs. It also broke through the daily downtrend line. Yesterday, it reached a high of .9383. Now the question is whether it can reach .9406 which was the November high. It's fallen back from the .9383 high.

Support is at .9330, .9289, .9266, .9242, .9229, .9202 (strong), .9166 and .9131. Resistance is at .9406 and .9427. If it somehow clears that then look out. It may eventually achieve its 2008 high of .9851. But clearing .9406 will be tough.

Here's the weekly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURJPY—took profit

My long from last week from 123.68 hit its profit target on Friday while I was away from trading. That target was 125.51 for +183 pips. The pair has continued to followed Euro's rise, reaching a high of 127.46 this morning. The pair could be playing out a flat correction that shouldn't exceed 127.94 before reversing. It could be worth taking a small long on a pullback but with very tight stops.

Support is at 126.42, 125.46, 126.15, 124.62, 123.44, 122.33 (short-term uptrend line from February), 121.41 and 121.06. Resistance is at 127.49 and 127.94. Beyond that it could achieve 129.82.

Here's the three-hour chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—big jump

My long from 1.3308 has certainly moved up nicely by any accounting and I just took partial profits at + 307 pips. I wrote last week that the Euro was puttering about, either delaying the inevitable (a drop to 1.29) or continuing a corrective wave two that would reach to at least 1.3818. It looks as though it's trying for the latter but after it reached a high of 1.3692 this morning, it has fallen back. On the hourly chart, RSI has fallen from oversold (greater than 70). In addition, a triangle is forming. Often, triangles mean continuation although the pair is threatening to drop below it. The pair must stay above 1.36 for the continuation to seem plausible.

One can see the double bottom on the charts (1.3267 and 1.3293) and the pair has broken beyond the neckline which was at 1.3591. If price stays above this, the potential price target is 1.3899/1.3915.

Support is at 1.3598, 1.3500, 1.3445, 1.3366, 1.3342, 1.3283 and 1.3267. Resistance is at 1.3692, 1.3705/20, 1.3818, and 1.3893/99, 1.3915.

Here's the hourly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.