The evening star did confirm but momentum as measured by RSI is still up so waiting to short is in order.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, March 12, 2010
GBPUSD—pennant
On the hourly chart the pair is in a pennant. If it breaks out, the length of the flagpole that preceded it hints at a target of 1.5316 which is near the 2/26 high of 1.5323. Offsetting this is the somewhat negative bearish divergence with RSI. Support is at 1.5112 and 1.5027. Resistance is at 1.5196, 1.5323 and 1.5576.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—possible short
On the hourly and 15-minute chart, you can see USDCAD coiling inside a triangle. After a decline, this hints at further drops. I'm studying taking a short since it's at the top of the triangle. Caution is critical (that means tight stops above 1.02) because there are pairs that normally move inversely to this one showing weakness. If it breaks below the triangle, the target is 1.0134. Not a great move but on the other hand if the pair does break below, there could be further drops back to parity.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—potential evening star on hourly chart
There's a potential evening star on the hourly chart. This WON'T be confirmed until the completion of the current hourly candle which would need to close deeply into the first bullish candle. If it does confirm, then forming near resistance is bearish.
Here's the one-hour chart with the arrow pointing to the potential formation.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the one-hour chart with the arrow pointing to the potential formation.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—a bit of a throwback
I wouldn't get too excited about the pullback in Euro down to a low of 1.3736 so far because surely it can squeeze out a bit higher climb before failing. If it can't, things are grim indeed.
Realistically, 1.3723 could stop this correction since it's a fib confluence area as well the area of 1.3726 to 1.3726 early March highs. Below that, the 1.3651 to 1.3697 area could serve as support because of confluence. It's a bit tricky because the pair is in an overall downtrend and so one assumes it will eventually resume that until definitively proven otherwise. If it broke above 1.42, I'd start to wonder about that because that would be into wave one territory of the move down from November. But I don't think that's going to happen. If it can resume the uptrend, I'd expect 1.3853 or possibly 1.4039. Not sure there's enough strength to get to the latter but we'll see. If momentum starts to substantially fall off on the shorter time periods, it's a hint the strength isn't there.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Realistically, 1.3723 could stop this correction since it's a fib confluence area as well the area of 1.3726 to 1.3726 early March highs. Below that, the 1.3651 to 1.3697 area could serve as support because of confluence. It's a bit tricky because the pair is in an overall downtrend and so one assumes it will eventually resume that until definitively proven otherwise. If it broke above 1.42, I'd start to wonder about that because that would be into wave one territory of the move down from November. But I don't think that's going to happen. If it can resume the uptrend, I'd expect 1.3853 or possibly 1.4039. Not sure there's enough strength to get to the latter but we'll see. If momentum starts to substantially fall off on the shorter time periods, it's a hint the strength isn't there.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—potential short coming up
On the three-hour chart of EURJPY, you can see it nearing its previous high of 125.25 that proved too difficult a resistance level on Feb. 21. It's high this morning, so far, has been 124.66. I think it will make that level and it's a good potential short depending on price action at that time. A clue that it will falter again is to watch an indicator such as RSI on the hourly chart. If it falls out of overbought, a short would be in order. If it does clear 125.25, it's fairly clear sailing up to 126.39. If it doesn't clear it and falls back, support is at 123.03, 122.59, 121.89, and 121.47. Either way, 125/125.25 is a level to watch.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—bumping up against 137.38
I had two longs in this pair yesterday. The one on my chart yesterday was from 135.46. I took partial profits in that one at 136.00 for +54 pips. The remainder of it stopped out at +10 pips. I then added another at 136.20 which is still in play. I just took partial profits on that at +92 pips.
The pair hit a high of 137.20 today but it's stalling there. This is just ahead of the significant resistance at 137.38, a price that served as resistance on Monday and on Feb. 25. If it can get through that then it can probably get to 137.91 which is 50% of the move down from Feb. 17.
Support is at 136.67, 136.46, 136.15, 135.52, 134.93, and 134.00. Resistance is at 137.20, 137.38, 137.91, 138.26, 139.59, and 141.68.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair hit a high of 137.20 today but it's stalling there. This is just ahead of the significant resistance at 137.38, a price that served as resistance on Monday and on Feb. 25. If it can get through that then it can probably get to 137.91 which is 50% of the move down from Feb. 17.
Support is at 136.67, 136.46, 136.15, 135.52, 134.93, and 134.00. Resistance is at 137.20, 137.38, 137.91, 138.26, 139.59, and 141.68.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—broke below 1.02
The evening star I blogged about yesterday did in fact give a good hint to the negative price action to follow with a drop to a low of 1.0160 this morning. Ostensibly this was because of "good Canadian employment news" but the clues were in the chart early yesterday. No matter why.
Often there's a reaction bounce after a sell-off like this but it would be best to use that as a short selling opportunity. 1.02 is now resistance for this pair although it could reach back up to 1.0208/1.0225.
Support is at 1.0100, 1.0084, 1.0072, 1.000, and gulp, .9823. Resistance is 1.02, 1.0208/25, and 1.0300.
Here's the three-hour chart. You can see how bullish divergence seems to have failed:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Often there's a reaction bounce after a sell-off like this but it would be best to use that as a short selling opportunity. 1.02 is now resistance for this pair although it could reach back up to 1.0208/1.0225.
Support is at 1.0100, 1.0084, 1.0072, 1.000, and gulp, .9823. Resistance is 1.02, 1.0208/25, and 1.0300.
Here's the three-hour chart. You can see how bullish divergence seems to have failed:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—finally out of triangle
The Euro made it out of its triangle to reach the next resistance at a high of 1.3796 this morning. It has quickly moved into overbought and the candles are throwing off some upper shadows on the hourly chart. I took some partial profits at +180 pips.
There's a potential evening star forming on the one hour chart but it will require the completion of the current candle to know for sure. Resistance is 1.3800, 1.3839, and 1.4026. Support is at 1.3753, 1.3734, 1.3660 (the top of the triangle), 1.3621, 1.3551, 1.3531, 1.3435 and 1.3250.
Even if, like me, you believe the Euro is weak, a more serious correction was needed so this is good news. Sell signals will present themselves. If I'm wrong and all is well with Eurozone, well, that's not bad news either, is it? There will be additional buy signals. Watch the chart.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There's a potential evening star forming on the one hour chart but it will require the completion of the current candle to know for sure. Resistance is 1.3800, 1.3839, and 1.4026. Support is at 1.3753, 1.3734, 1.3660 (the top of the triangle), 1.3621, 1.3551, 1.3531, 1.3435 and 1.3250.
Even if, like me, you believe the Euro is weak, a more serious correction was needed so this is good news. Sell signals will present themselves. If I'm wrong and all is well with Eurozone, well, that's not bad news either, is it? There will be additional buy signals. Watch the chart.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
USDCAD—evening star on hourly
Not good news for this pair that an evening star has formed on the hourly chart with the completion of the last candle. This is a three-candle formation that comes after a rise with a long bullish candle first, followed by a star or doji star and then a bearish candle that closes deep into the body of the bullish one. They're especially powerful if near resistance which this one is at 1.0322. Let's see if it can overcome it or if the pair goes lower.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—time to fish or cut bait
The Euro is at the top of its triangle that I blogged about earlier this morning. I took some partial profits from my long at +85 pips. It poked its head above it earlier this morning, reaching 1.3687. Failure here will probably send it back to the 1.35 area. Let's see if it can make it to 1.3736 and then possibly 1.3788/97, 1.3839, and 1.4026. Support is at 1.3621, 1.3551, 1.3531, 1.3435 and 1.3250.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—another run at 137.38?
My short from 136.10 did profit stop out yesterday for +70 pips. I then went long at 135.46 since the break above 135.20 looked like a keeper. So far, so good but the pair still has significant resistance ahead. The 137.38 price is going to be tough since it served as resistance on Monday and on Feb. 25. If it can get through that then it can probably get to 137.91 which is 50% of the move down from Feb. 17. I believe there is still more weakness in store for this pair but it likes to bounce around and the moves can be profitable.
Support is at 135.22, 134.93, 134.00, 133.49, 132.58, and 132.03. Resistance is at 136.46, 137.38, 137.91, 138.26, 139.59, and 141.68.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 135.22, 134.93, 134.00, 133.49, 132.58, and 132.03. Resistance is at 136.46, 137.38, 137.91, 138.26, 139.59, and 141.68.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCAD—grinding lower
I haven't blogged about this pair since this past Friday when I had a short position from 1.0310. That position profit-stopped out at +20 pips and I haven't traded it this week as it hasn't looked particularly exciting. It dropped to a low of 1.0217 overnight, only 9 pips above the 1.0208 low it reached in October.
The calls now are for it to reach parity with more than one Canadian economist huffing and puffing in the popular press about the loonie's strength. Well, Canada does have some real assets—how do you spell oil?—and the loonie has been appreciating strongly against the USD and the Euro recently. So am I ready to take another short? Not at the moment. I want to see it go below the 1.0208 mark. At that time, I'll probably short a bounce. There's a real struggle at this point between buyers and sellers and it basically has USDCAD caught between 1.0217 and 1.03. We should see some action soon.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The calls now are for it to reach parity with more than one Canadian economist huffing and puffing in the popular press about the loonie's strength. Well, Canada does have some real assets—how do you spell oil?—and the loonie has been appreciating strongly against the USD and the Euro recently. So am I ready to take another short? Not at the moment. I want to see it go below the 1.0208 mark. At that time, I'll probably short a bounce. There's a real struggle at this point between buyers and sellers and it basically has USDCAD caught between 1.0217 and 1.03. We should see some action soon.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—coiling
Are these dull markets or what? My long position from 1.3587 is up 66 pips (as of 4:35 AM EST) and is profit stopped but it's a slow grind for Euro. After it completes its coiling inside the triangle you can see on the one- and three-hour charts there will be some movement. Triangles are often continuation patterns. If you ascribe to Elliott Wave (EW) theory, this most likely signals the end of the correction before Euro resumes its downward move, probably to 1.30 or so.
Since the November high of 1.5144, Euro has had very shallow corrections. The first one was over the course of 15 trading days in December to January and was only for 246 pips (1.4217 to 1.4463). This one, if it is indeed nearing an end, covered only 1.3435 to 1.3736 or 301 pips with today being the 15th trading day. That throws a wrench in the EW theory of alternation since that states that if wave two is deep, wave four will be shallow or vice versa. Elliott believed it "was virtually a law of markets." Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior
Support is at 1.3551, 1.3531, 1.3435 and 1.3250. Resistance is at 1.3657/80, 1.3736, 1.3788/97, 1.3839, and 1.4026.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Since the November high of 1.5144, Euro has had very shallow corrections. The first one was over the course of 15 trading days in December to January and was only for 246 pips (1.4217 to 1.4463). This one, if it is indeed nearing an end, covered only 1.3435 to 1.3736 or 301 pips with today being the 15th trading day. That throws a wrench in the EW theory of alternation since that states that if wave two is deep, wave four will be shallow or vice versa. Elliott believed it "was virtually a law of markets." Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior
Support is at 1.3551, 1.3531, 1.3435 and 1.3250. Resistance is at 1.3657/80, 1.3736, 1.3788/97, 1.3839, and 1.4026.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
GBPJPY—rebuffed again
Since Monday, this pair has been rebuffed three times at 135.20/22. It may be trapped in a bit of a range, with the bottom being at 133.92. This was the top of the early March range as well. It won't stay here forever.
I'm still short from 136.10. A solid break above the 135.20 will take me out and then I will need to decide whether to jump back in with a long. Otherwise, I expect it may dip a bit before trying again.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm still short from 136.10. A solid break above the 135.20 will take me out and then I will need to decide whether to jump back in with a long. Otherwise, I expect it may dip a bit before trying again.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—near resistance
My long position got taken out in the little dip yesterday at +5 pips. I might have gotten back in had I been watching but I wasn't and it's certainly not the time to do so now. At this point, anyone wanting to go long would want to wait for a clear break of .9150 or a pullback, possibly to .9105. The pair looks reasonably strong but I want to see the price action around .9150 to .9180. The latter is just beyond some near-term calculated price targets so it might be an interesting area to consider a short.
Support is at .9100, .9070, .9047, and .8982. Resistance is at ..9150/55, .9200, and .9240.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .9100, .9070, .9047, and .8982. Resistance is at ..9150/55, .9200, and .9240.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—how about a good solid bounce?
I tried a small long this morning at 1.3587 after 1.3545 held as support. I'm getting ready to move the stop to breakeven. I've analyzed and re-analyzed Euro and there should be a bounce at least back to 13700/50. If it can get there, perhaps it can get to 1.3853 and possibly 1.4039. I know it sounds like a gigantic stretch right this moment and it may indeed be. But those levels would fulfill rather modest price objectives for a bounce and give it the energy it needs to dip to new lows.
Support is at 1.3545, 1.3531, and 1.3435. Resistance is at 1.3704, 1.3736, 1.3788/97, and 1.4026.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.3545, 1.3531, and 1.3435. Resistance is at 1.3704, 1.3736, 1.3788/97, and 1.4026.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—near interesting levels
Looking at a daily chart for this pair that goes back to January 2009, you can see it's at an interesting price zone.
First, the uptrend line from January is at 1.4805. The pair is currently offered at 1.4892 (6:13 AM EST). GBPUSD dipped to a low of 1.4785 March 1 but this line essentially served as support. It probably will do so again although it is certainly exposed as they say. A definitive break below would be daunting for anyone who thinks the pound is going to recover anytime soon. Is there anyone that thinks that? I'm sure there must be. That's why trading takes place.
The second interesting level is at the .618 retracement level of the move up from January to August '09 climb. This, at 1.4848, so near the uptrend line, is reinforcing support.
Is it worth buying? There's significant risk with the heavily negative sentiment in place but as the pair moves closer to that uptrend line it will probably bounce. That bounce would most likely be a good place to short. 1.5016 to 1.5074 is a place where I'll get very interested. If it cleanly breaks the uptrend line there will probably be a pullback to the line which would be another opportunity.
Those intent on shorting shouldn't expect an immediate payoff as this is the fight it out level between buyers and sellers. If the pair does break the uptrend line, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect to see 1.4397.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
First, the uptrend line from January is at 1.4805. The pair is currently offered at 1.4892 (6:13 AM EST). GBPUSD dipped to a low of 1.4785 March 1 but this line essentially served as support. It probably will do so again although it is certainly exposed as they say. A definitive break below would be daunting for anyone who thinks the pound is going to recover anytime soon. Is there anyone that thinks that? I'm sure there must be. That's why trading takes place.
The second interesting level is at the .618 retracement level of the move up from January to August '09 climb. This, at 1.4848, so near the uptrend line, is reinforcing support.
Is it worth buying? There's significant risk with the heavily negative sentiment in place but as the pair moves closer to that uptrend line it will probably bounce. That bounce would most likely be a good place to short. 1.5016 to 1.5074 is a place where I'll get very interested. If it cleanly breaks the uptrend line there will probably be a pullback to the line which would be another opportunity.
Those intent on shorting shouldn't expect an immediate payoff as this is the fight it out level between buyers and sellers. If the pair does break the uptrend line, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect to see 1.4397.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
EURUSD—weekly chart
Euro can't seem to decide upon a direction that suits it so it's in the kind of sideways action that traders can find so frustrating. As usual, when that happens, I like to back up and take a look at a longer-term view. What you see on the weekly chart is that first, the Euro has been trading in a narrow range, and second, it has been hammering out a bottom. So the sideways direction being seen in the shorter time frames is not surprising.
During the week of February 12, the high was 1.3841; the low last week was 1.3434. That has been a nice 407 pip range to trade, up or down but it looks as though it's narrowing, at least as of today, Tuesday. The 168 pip range that it has been in, so far this week, is a lot harder to trade. However, the pair isn't going to stay in this range forever so patience is the key word to keep in mind.
The descending triangle on the weekly chart makes one suspicious that price may break downward when it finally does break. The Euro is weak so that wouldn't be surprising. However, it has almost achieved the target from the length of the flagpole on the daily chart at 1.3376 so a period of consolidation is in order.
Should it continue to drop, the uptrend line from its 2008 lows is support at 1.2814. I have multiple calculated price targets from 1.2660 through 1.2733 but I think it will be difficult for it to get there. I'm still hoping for a correction up to possibly 1.3853 or 1.4039 before it does so as that will give it the energy to drop. The 1.3853 is near the high from February 12 I wrote about above.
At the moment, I'm waiting for a directional signal. One should come within the next day or so. There's a saying that an ounce of patience is worth a pound of brains.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
During the week of February 12, the high was 1.3841; the low last week was 1.3434. That has been a nice 407 pip range to trade, up or down but it looks as though it's narrowing, at least as of today, Tuesday. The 168 pip range that it has been in, so far this week, is a lot harder to trade. However, the pair isn't going to stay in this range forever so patience is the key word to keep in mind.
The descending triangle on the weekly chart makes one suspicious that price may break downward when it finally does break. The Euro is weak so that wouldn't be surprising. However, it has almost achieved the target from the length of the flagpole on the daily chart at 1.3376 so a period of consolidation is in order.
Should it continue to drop, the uptrend line from its 2008 lows is support at 1.2814. I have multiple calculated price targets from 1.2660 through 1.2733 but I think it will be difficult for it to get there. I'm still hoping for a correction up to possibly 1.3853 or 1.4039 before it does so as that will give it the energy to drop. The 1.3853 is near the high from February 12 I wrote about above.
At the moment, I'm waiting for a directional signal. One should come within the next day or so. There's a saying that an ounce of patience is worth a pound of brains.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—at support
My two long positions stopped out at 1.3621 for +50 and +9 pips respectively.
I can't believe that Euro can't manage a better rally than it has managed to squeak out so far. On the hourly chart it's currently sitting on a short-term upward trend line and a hammer candle just formed with a low of 1.3577. If it breaks below that, the hammer candle will be negated. I'm tempted to try a long here since stops can be tight. Short-term price action shows it trying to hammer out a base.
Resistance is at 1.3628, 1.3692, 1.3704, 1.3736, 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.4022, and 1.4100. Support is at 1. 3531 and .3435.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I can't believe that Euro can't manage a better rally than it has managed to squeak out so far. On the hourly chart it's currently sitting on a short-term upward trend line and a hammer candle just formed with a low of 1.3577. If it breaks below that, the hammer candle will be negated. I'm tempted to try a long here since stops can be tight. Short-term price action shows it trying to hammer out a base.
Resistance is at 1.3628, 1.3692, 1.3704, 1.3736, 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.4022, and 1.4100. Support is at 1. 3531 and .3435.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—the little engine that could?
This pair just doesn't want to give up. The high so far today is .9077 so it may make another run at .9150 where it will surely fall back in a dead faint. It's climbing on pound weakness but it's not exactly as though the Euro is strong. I was ready to short again yesterday but the pair didn't seem to fall to pieces when it touched .9065 so I waited for another candle and decided a tiny long was the better course of action so I bought at .9050.
I don't expect this pair could get much beyond .9150 so I'll be reducing my position size as it approaches that price unless things look really bullish. If I wasn't long I'd probably have tried a small short when it reach .9070 this morning. If it hits my stop I may reverse depending on price action.
While the pair has not met calculated price targets I'm a bit pessimistic about it. Notice the steep ascent of the most recent rise. Steep ascents are not usually sustainable and this one has dropped beneath it somewhat. It's also peeked into overbought readings on the RSI but a failure to get well into overbought would be negative. Keep an eye, too, if it breaks the upward RSI trend line. Caution is probably the best advice about this pair.
Support is at .9000, .8973, .8956, .8920, and .8867. Resistance is at ..9100/11, .9150, and .9200.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I don't expect this pair could get much beyond .9150 so I'll be reducing my position size as it approaches that price unless things look really bullish. If I wasn't long I'd probably have tried a small short when it reach .9070 this morning. If it hits my stop I may reverse depending on price action.
While the pair has not met calculated price targets I'm a bit pessimistic about it. Notice the steep ascent of the most recent rise. Steep ascents are not usually sustainable and this one has dropped beneath it somewhat. It's also peeked into overbought readings on the RSI but a failure to get well into overbought would be negative. Keep an eye, too, if it breaks the upward RSI trend line. Caution is probably the best advice about this pair.
Support is at .9000, .8973, .8956, .8920, and .8867. Resistance is at ..9100/11, .9150, and .9200.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—up and down and down
You have to love the up and down, to and fro moves of this pair.
My long position from 134.44 profit stopped out at 136.30 for +186 pips. The one from 135.90 profit stopped out at 136.20 for +30 pips. I then entered a short position at 136.10. I just took partial profits on that at +161 pips.
Apparently, resistance at 137.38 was just too tough. It's the third time it failed at that price. 137.91 is 50% of the move down from Feb. 17 so if it can't make that, it's weak indeed.
However, on the hourly chart one can see that it touched the .618 retracement (134.25) of the most recent move up and has continued down below it. The pair has also moved into an oversold reading for RSI. On shorter time frames (5-, 15-, and 30-munute charts) there's some bullish divergence so I'd expect at least a little bounce, perhaps back to the short-term uptrend line. 134.00 is also a strong support so I wouldn't add to shorts here. If it bounces back up through resistance at 135, it might be a stop and reverse situation. Price action should tell.
This area was resistance on Friday so it should serve as support. Next support is 134.00, 133.62, and 132.58. Resistance is at 134.33/43, 134.69, 135.39, 136.37 and 137.38. If it could make it through that then 138.64 and 139.59 are possible.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
My long position from 134.44 profit stopped out at 136.30 for +186 pips. The one from 135.90 profit stopped out at 136.20 for +30 pips. I then entered a short position at 136.10. I just took partial profits on that at +161 pips.
Apparently, resistance at 137.38 was just too tough. It's the third time it failed at that price. 137.91 is 50% of the move down from Feb. 17 so if it can't make that, it's weak indeed.
However, on the hourly chart one can see that it touched the .618 retracement (134.25) of the most recent move up and has continued down below it. The pair has also moved into an oversold reading for RSI. On shorter time frames (5-, 15-, and 30-munute charts) there's some bullish divergence so I'd expect at least a little bounce, perhaps back to the short-term uptrend line. 134.00 is also a strong support so I wouldn't add to shorts here. If it bounces back up through resistance at 135, it might be a stop and reverse situation. Price action should tell.
This area was resistance on Friday so it should serve as support. Next support is 134.00, 133.62, and 132.58. Resistance is at 134.33/43, 134.69, 135.39, 136.37 and 137.38. If it could make it through that then 138.64 and 139.59 are possible.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, March 8, 2010
USDCAD—maybe found a base
The pair has possibly found a base in the 1.0260's from which to stage at least a small bounce. I went long at 1.0270. There's some bullish divergence on the hourly chart. USDCAD will have to close above 1.0299/1.0305 for anyone to believe this bounce can have any legs. We'll see.
Support is at 1.0260, 1.0242, 1.0225 and 1.0208. Resistance is at 1.0299, 1.0305, 1.0340/62 and 1.0444.
Here's the hourly chart:
Copyright Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.0260, 1.0242, 1.0225 and 1.0208. Resistance is at 1.0299, 1.0305, 1.0340/62 and 1.0444.
Here's the hourly chart:
Copyright Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—bounce didn't disappoint
This pair's bounce didn't disappoint at all. When I last blogged on Friday, I had two longs, one from 134.44 and one from 133.80. I picked up a third long position from 135.90. This morning, I closed the 133.80 one for +300 pips and took partial profits on the one from 134.44 at +220 pips.
Resistance proved too tough at 137.38 and it has since fallen back. This price has now served as resistance twice in the last day and was also resistance on Fe. 25. My suspicion is that it will try again and probably get through to at least 137.91 which is 50% of the move down from Feb. 17.
I may add another long position now that it has pulled back to 136.64. This area was resistance on Friday so it should serve as support. Next support is 136.45, 135.73, 135.51, and 134.43. Resistance is at 137.38, 138.64, and 139.59.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Resistance proved too tough at 137.38 and it has since fallen back. This price has now served as resistance twice in the last day and was also resistance on Fe. 25. My suspicion is that it will try again and probably get through to at least 137.91 which is 50% of the move down from Feb. 17.
I may add another long position now that it has pulled back to 136.64. This area was resistance on Friday so it should serve as support. Next support is 136.45, 135.73, 135.51, and 134.43. Resistance is at 137.38, 138.64, and 139.59.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—struggling with resistance
The pair climbed nicely to .13704 before being repelled by the downtrend line from March 3. I have two long positions from 1.3571 and 1.3612. I just took partial profits on the one from 1.3571 at +80 pips. The long from 1.3557, which I blogged about on Friday, stopped out at breakeven.
I haven't changed my longer term outlook about this pair—I believe it will go lower—but we're currently in a correction that could reach up as high as 1.4039. I'd certainly be happy going short at that level. It could also stall out at 1.3750 or 1.3850.
Resistance is at 1.3704,m 1.3736, 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.4022, and 1.4100. Support is at 1.3659, 1.3626, 1.3593, 1.3531, and 1.3435.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I haven't changed my longer term outlook about this pair—I believe it will go lower—but we're currently in a correction that could reach up as high as 1.4039. I'd certainly be happy going short at that level. It could also stall out at 1.3750 or 1.3850.
Resistance is at 1.3704,m 1.3736, 1.3800, 1.3839, 1.4022, and 1.4100. Support is at 1.3659, 1.3626, 1.3593, 1.3531, and 1.3435.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—hovering just above .9000
Friday's short at .9028 stopped at breakeven. It since dropped a bit but was caught on a short-term uptrend line (best seen on the hourly chart) at .8998. A bounce is possible up to .9031 or possibly .9056/64. Will probably wait and look at shorting at those levels. If it broke decisively below .8973, that would also be a potential short. On the weekly chart the pair is coiling between .8663 and .9310 but I'd expect it would drop lower in that range before it went higher.
Support is at .8973, .8956, .8920, and .8867. Resistance is at .9032, .9065, .9083 and .9100.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8973, .8956, .8920, and .8867. Resistance is at .9032, .9065, .9083 and .9100.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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