The USD is falling after the weaker than expected numbers. Be careful, though. This isn't about currency strength in the Euro so much as it is about the USD. I don't talk much about fundamental factors in this blog but the reality is that Eurozone has higher unemployment than the US. More importantly, unemployment is a lagging factor in an economy—it improves last. So you can't make firm conclusions about things just from this. Well, maybe you can draw one conclusion—the market is full of kneejerk reactions to news. I'm not suggesting the US economy is out of the woods by any means. But even if you believe the Euro, AUD, whatever, will continue up, use tight stops. Some significant resistance levels are being approached that I've blogged about earlier in the week.
See you Monday.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, December 3, 2010
AUDUSD—update
The pair has reached a high of .9864 (as of 8:58AM EST) which is 4 pips above the 50% retracement of 1.0183 to .9537. Let's see if it can scale it.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Markets Waiting for NFP
There's not going to be a lot of action until after NFP. I don't trade news events (nor should you—that's short term trading taken to the absurd) but the results should give some insights. An experienced trader once told me that if a commodity (i.e. the USD) doesn't fall on bearish news or rise on bullish news then the news is not what it appears.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—rebounding
After touching a low of .9537, the pair bounced smartly to a high this morning of .9824. This pair loves to go up. So even though there's some bearish pressure, back up it goes. It looks as though it may make it past resistance of .9817 and .9853 (needs a close above on at least an hourly chart). If so, eyes are on .9954. Why? From the 1.0183 high the pair dropped to .9725. It then bounced to .9954 which was a 50% retracement and failed. This suggested a secondary top. So if the pair gets back there, interest will be high.
I went long at .9602 earlier this week after a hammer and a bullish engulfing candle on the hourly chart and because I'd identified support at .9540 (see 11/29 blog). I meant to update the blog but time got away from me and, as I've written before, I can't post everything or I'd never get any trading done. I just took partial profits at +203 pips. At that time I suspected it might go as low as .9408 before rallying. Obviously it didn't. We'll have to see what happens at .9954 if it gets there. It probably won't do so this week.
So being long, do I have any bearish sentiment toward AUDUSD? Yes, I do. As it is now (at 7:30AM EST), the pair is going to have a weekly close with a lower high and lower low than last week. This comes after a week with an outside candle so the overall look is bearish. I've also been comparing AUD to CAD and AUD looks weaker. Finally, on the weekly chart below, you'll notice three uptrend lines, each starting from a higher low. This won't continue forever and this most recent pullback came close to violating the most recent one. RSI also has some interesting behavior, as to numeric levels and as to trending. But as I wrote this past Monday, "the size of the rally from the 2008 low is significant." I've made a lot of money going long in this pair over the past year and it's an overall uptrend until proven otherwise.
Here's the weekly chart. My trades don't show on the weekly chart as I use a different charting package for longer term charting. I'm looking to make a change in 2011 to that approach but we'll see. One gets in a rut with one's broker.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I went long at .9602 earlier this week after a hammer and a bullish engulfing candle on the hourly chart and because I'd identified support at .9540 (see 11/29 blog). I meant to update the blog but time got away from me and, as I've written before, I can't post everything or I'd never get any trading done. I just took partial profits at +203 pips. At that time I suspected it might go as low as .9408 before rallying. Obviously it didn't. We'll have to see what happens at .9954 if it gets there. It probably won't do so this week.
So being long, do I have any bearish sentiment toward AUDUSD? Yes, I do. As it is now (at 7:30AM EST), the pair is going to have a weekly close with a lower high and lower low than last week. This comes after a week with an outside candle so the overall look is bearish. I've also been comparing AUD to CAD and AUD looks weaker. Finally, on the weekly chart below, you'll notice three uptrend lines, each starting from a higher low. This won't continue forever and this most recent pullback came close to violating the most recent one. RSI also has some interesting behavior, as to numeric levels and as to trending. But as I wrote this past Monday, "the size of the rally from the 2008 low is significant." I've made a lot of money going long in this pair over the past year and it's an overall uptrend until proven otherwise.
Here's the weekly chart. My trades don't show on the weekly chart as I use a different charting package for longer term charting. I'm looking to make a change in 2011 to that approach but we'll see. One gets in a rut with one's broker.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
EURGBP—correcting
EURGBP is approaching the .8500 resistance which is the downward trend line from October. As I blogged yesterday, November's monthly chart closed with a completed evening star pattern which formed near price resistance—the downtrend line from 2008. This is bearish and .8500 is a short opportunity as long as momentum doesn't increase. There is positive divergence with RSI which is of some concern. If it closes above .8500 on a daily basis, then the next resistance is .8543 (50%) and .8595 (fib confluence and 11/22 high).
Support is at .8390 (9/21 and today's low), .8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8390 (9/21 and today's low), .8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—corrective
Euro has been choppy this morning because of the ECB announcement and the Trichet comments. This isn't unusual. Before that Euro had corrected to a high of 1.3217 (missing my profit stop by one pip). It then sunk to 1.3060 which is a .618 retracement of the rise from the Nov. 30th of 1.2969. In its rise it cleared the 1.3150 resistance and had four consecutive hourly closes above that. It needs more, preferably a daily close. If this happens, then I'd expect price to retest the uptrend line from June at 1.3315 or the 1.3335 former support. Only above there would I expect to see a move back to the 1.35 area. I don't think that's going to happen.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—resistance and above
As I wrote yesterday, it looks as though this pair is rallying within a C leg of an ABC correction. It did reach 131.77 this morning, within two pips of my hourly target of a C wave. It has since fallen back to a low of 131.11 where it's trying to base. There are many interesting geometric shapes on the shorter term charts so we'll have to see where this goes. While one can try shorts in this area up to 131.90 (see yesterday's blog), another good shorting opportunity is 134.17. It's important to keep the psychology of the market in mind—people see weakness in this pair based on the overall trend and are looking to short. However those that shorted the break of 130 a couple of days ago are hurting a bit. If the pair moves beyond 132, the pain increases and they'll start buying back their shorts. That feeds more upward price movement. At some point, though, the bears will probably win out given the big downtrend. All you can do is pick shorting points that make sense and go in with tight stops. The potential gains are great—probably down to 120 and potentially lower, a lot lower. For a weekly chart, the one I think most relavent, ee yesterday's blog.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
EURGBP—November evening star
The monthly chart shows an evening star pattern which formed near price resistance—the downtrend line from 2008. However the pair is in a triangle with the downward sloping line at .8878 and the upward sloping line at .8204. So a rise to .8878 is possible although the downtrend is bearish overall. There's also a corrective downward channel on the chart. The bottom line of this is at .7856.
Yesterday's low of .8335 was just below the price target of .8363 from the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart (see Nov. 10th blog). The pair immediately began a rally which has reached .8417. As I wrote yesterday, this is tough resistance up to .8500 and I doubt the pair will overcome it. So I'm using rallies as short opportunities.
Support is at.8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the monthly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Yesterday's low of .8335 was just below the price target of .8363 from the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart (see Nov. 10th blog). The pair immediately began a rally which has reached .8417. As I wrote yesterday, this is tough resistance up to .8500 and I doubt the pair will overcome it. So I'm using rallies as short opportunities.
Support is at.8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the monthly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—monthly
Looking at the monthly chart, the downtrend line comes in at 1.6316 not too far above its recent 1.63 swing high at the beginning of November. The intermediate downtrend line is at 1.6243. The uptrend line of the triangle is 1.4563.
Considering price behavior over the long term (from Nov. 2007), the trend is down. So while Cable could reach the 1.63 high again, it's not likely it will sustain it. It seems more likely that interim resistance in the 1.5650 to 1.5889 zone will prove to be the top. That's too big a range for short-term trading, I know, but it can be refined as price moves above 1.5650.
Potential downside moves will find support at 1.5485 (yesterday's low), 1.5349/45 (200 daily SMA and 50% of 1.6461 to 1.4228), and 1.5295/87 (Sept. 10th low and fib confluence). Longer term price action, given an Elliott Wave spin, suggests possible moves down below the prior 1.35 low. There will be several opportunities to short on that trip down if, in fact, it should occur.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Considering price behavior over the long term (from Nov. 2007), the trend is down. So while Cable could reach the 1.63 high again, it's not likely it will sustain it. It seems more likely that interim resistance in the 1.5650 to 1.5889 zone will prove to be the top. That's too big a range for short-term trading, I know, but it can be refined as price moves above 1.5650.
Potential downside moves will find support at 1.5485 (yesterday's low), 1.5349/45 (200 daily SMA and 50% of 1.6461 to 1.4228), and 1.5295/87 (Sept. 10th low and fib confluence). Longer term price action, given an Elliott Wave spin, suggests possible moves down below the prior 1.35 low. There will be several opportunities to short on that trip down if, in fact, it should occur.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—corrective rally
The low of 129.93 yesterday equaled a .63 percent retracement of the move from 126.44 to 134.23. Assuming this is an ABC correction on the daily chart, the C leg currently underway could reach 134.17 if C equals .618A. That's near price resistance as well as the current 200 day SMA. It's also near the November high of 134.22 and near the upper line of a downward sloping channel on the weekly chart. As a result, I'd expect to see good resistance there and I'd try a short. The pair's average true range is around 137 pips (low compared to historic levels) so this should happen over the next few days if it's going to happen.
On an hourly basis, one can also see a potential ABC correction with the C leg in progress and possible targets up to 131.75. Just above this is the uptrend line from October lows at 131.90 as well as resistance from a weekly EMA and a daily 10 and 20 SMA. In addition, the 50% retracement of the move down from 134.23 to 129.36 is at 131.80. All this is significant resistance so obviously if the pair is going to achieve the 134.17/35 range, it has to first close neatly above this level. If one shorts here, the stop needs to be over 132.00—not too bad for the potential gain down to 119/120.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On an hourly basis, one can also see a potential ABC correction with the C leg in progress and possible targets up to 131.75. Just above this is the uptrend line from October lows at 131.90 as well as resistance from a weekly EMA and a daily 10 and 20 SMA. In addition, the 50% retracement of the move down from 134.23 to 129.36 is at 131.80. All this is significant resistance so obviously if the pair is going to achieve the 134.17/35 range, it has to first close neatly above this level. If one shorts here, the stop needs to be over 132.00—not too bad for the potential gain down to 119/120.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
EURUSD—still weak
The low so far this morning is 1.2980 which is more than 50% retracement of the move up from the June low. A .618 of this would be 1.2795. Because that's near a round number of 1.28, is an internal 45° degree support line on my point and figure chart, and a price target from other calculations, it seems probable it can make it. I have targets that go much deeper but there's not a lot of sense in talking about them at this point since no pair follows a straight line down (or up). That said, I have to say that one of the more meaningless statements I read by an analyst this morning was that the Euro had traded at this level many times before. Clearly a perma-bull who thinks this weakness is just temporary. But it's worth noting that the Euro is very oversold and, as I wrote yesterday, there's a cluster of support around the 1.30 price. A rally isn't out of the question. 1.3150 is the most likely resistance and I'd probably add to my short there. I did take partial profits at +580 pips. Only above
1.3317 would I expect to see a potential move back to the 1.35 area. I don't think that's likely.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
1.3317 would I expect to see a potential move back to the 1.35 area. I don't think that's likely.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURJPY—nearing uptrend line
This pair looks as though it's making a run 108.33, the uptrend line from the August low of 105.44. If the pair breaks below the uptrend line then it's likely it will return to that low. Basically, the pair has been in a range since May but 105.44 to 115.70 is a large enough range to have made some decent money. I'm currently short from 110.28. However on the one-hour chart, a hammer candle has formed with the low this morning of 108.89. If it doesn't break that low then a rally is in the cards. Since I had a profit target of 109.40 from my point and figure calculations, I'm taking partial profits here at +114 pips. A rally would most likely be capped at 110. Above there is 111.78/93 which will be formidable resistance.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—tumbling to support
With this morning's low of .8366, EURGBP has now retraced more than .618 of the move from .8068 to .8941. It's nearing the head and shoulder target I wrote about on Nov. 10th. Support is at.8350/44 and .8269 (the uptrend line from the July low of .8068). One would expect a rally but last week's outside candle (higher high and lower low than the prior week) along with the long bearish candle for the week ending 11/12 means it's probable the pair may be headed back to .8068. On the monthly chart (not shown) it looks as though an evening star is forming with the completion today. Since the high of this pattern was the downtrend line from December 2008, the pattern is strengthened. Any rally will probably be contained by the tough resistance from .8408 to .8500. So shorting rallies seems to be the way to go if one isn't already short.
Here's the weekly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, November 29, 2010
EURUSD—weekly
The weekly chart shows the price break of the key uptrend line as well as the break by RSI of its uptrend line. Ideally, the RSI will break below 40 which would confirm a deeper bearish momentum.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—approaching a support cluster
The failure of 1.3335 and the break below the uptrend line from June were blows for the bulls. Euro so far isn't showing any signs of ending its slide and the low so far is 1.3137. I'm still short from 1.3638. This move has the potential for lows in the 1.28 area and possibly lower. However, Euro is approaching a support cluster between 1.3020 and 1.3130 consisting of the lower channel line of the current slide as well as a fibo, speed line, and price support. It's possible we'll see a rally which would provide a shorting opportunity. Only if the pair definitively overtakes 1.3317 which would also move it above the broken uptrend line would I expect to see a potential move back to the 1.35 area. I don't think that's likely. A break below 1.31 would target 1.30 and then 1.28. This is based on longer term charts. Obviously there will be small wave action between here and there.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—struggling
The overnight low was .9585. This is just below the uptrend line from June (currently .9596) and a weekly EMA. One might expect a rally but after bouncing to .9699 early this morning, the pair dropped back to .9623 which is a .618 retracement. That's bit deep for a sustainable rally and if it continues to drop, one will want to watch a retest of the uptrend line very closely on the hourly chart. Another bounce from there brightens the pair's prospects. However, any rally will run into resistance at .9699, .9729, .9817 and .9853. These might be shorting opportunities if bearish sentiment continues to blanket the pair.
Why wouldn't I assume the uptrend had resumed with any rally? From the 1.0183 high the pair dropped to .9725. It then bounced to .9954 which was a 50% retracement and failed into the current decline. This suggests a secondary top. Looking at the hourly chart, one can trace out an ABC correction. The 6AM candle that just completed is a hammer so support is at .9623. Additional support is at .9585, .9540, and .9408.
All that said, the size of the rally from the 2008 low is significant and the pair probably will rally from .9408.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Why wouldn't I assume the uptrend had resumed with any rally? From the 1.0183 high the pair dropped to .9725. It then bounced to .9954 which was a 50% retracement and failed into the current decline. This suggests a secondary top. Looking at the hourly chart, one can trace out an ABC correction. The 6AM candle that just completed is a hammer so support is at .9623. Additional support is at .9585, .9540, and .9408.
All that said, the size of the rally from the 2008 low is significant and the pair probably will rally from .9408.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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