Thursday, January 7, 2010

AUDUSD—maybe a retest of support

My short from .9127 stopped out at .9175 for a loss of 48 pips.

The pair climbed to .9267 yesterday but fell overnight to a low of .9183. It may fall a bit more to about .9160. There’s a confluence of support at this level— the early week highs, the bottom of the downward sloping channel it’s currently in, and the 55 EMA on the hourly chart which has served as rough support on the hourly chart since December. At that level, one could try a long, depending on price behavior. What’s the upside potential? Some of my price target calculations show .9500 but to get there it’s going to have to fight through resistance at .9267 (yesterday’s high), .9300 (psychological round number), .9322/28 (October and November highs), .9400/.9406, (psychological round number and November high). That’s quite a lot of resistance, clustered fairly close together. Momentum, as represented by RSI, is going to have to pick up for price to have an unfettered climb.

Currently, support is at .9160, .9110 (prior support and close to the round number of .9100), .8945/85 (prior support/resistance), and ultimately .8744, the December low.

Here’s the hourly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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