Friday, January 21, 2011

Currency market today

In a recap of the week so far as of 8:57 AM EST:

AUDUSD stumbled around this week, closing yesterday at .9878, just 10 pips below where it ended last Friday. Its high has been 1.0077 this week so unless something radical happens today, this week will end with only a slightly higher high and low than last week. Breaking a daily uptrend line was not good news and probably set off a round of covering for long positions taken when Aussie still looked as though it could get to 1.03 and above. Resistance is at .9900 (high this morning so far is .9903), .9916, .9982, and 1.0020/56. Only a close above that level (not likely today) would open a door to 1.0183, 1.0214, and 1.0257. Support is at .9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32. Overall, I'm bearish, looking at possible targets of .9740, .9490, .9213 and below.

EURGBP has been rallying this week and reached a high this morning of .8530. Bullish behavior as long as it closes above .8500. There's strong resistance just above with the 100 daily SMA at .8534 and the .618 retracement of the most recent move down at .8512.

EURJPY bounced this week, moving from a low of 109.58 on Monday to a high of 112.26 this morning. This has probably shaken out most of those who were short so there's likely to be stalling. There's a possibility the pair could get back to 115.69, the top of the general range that harkens back to September 2009. From there, I'd short for sure. Before it reached that price EURJPY must scale strong resistance in the 112 zone with fibs, price highs and the 200 daily moving average working to hold it down.

EURUSD did well this week, confounding some of the bears who were squeezed throughout the week. 1.3244 was Monday's low; the high this morning so far is 1.3567. The potential is there for a move up to the 1.38 area as I've been blogging but first, one would want to see a close today above 1.35. This is doable. None of this negates the overall bearish pattern. Only a move above 1.3860 would make things look more positive, possibly signaling a return to the 1.4282 prior high.

GBPJPY was another pair that marched up this week from a low of 130.99 on Monday to a high yesterday of 132.27. Guppy is staying above 132 so far this morning. However, the weekly 10 EMA has been capping the pair in the past. That is currently 132.92. I'm planning to short around 133.00 but obviously I'll be watching price behavior closely. There's a possibility of the pair reaching 134.20 before keeling over in exhaustion. Good support is at 131.60.

GBPUSD looked good this week on a day-to-day basis but now looks as though it's weakening. Yesterday's close was 1.5932, only 9 pips above last Friday's close. It did reach a high of 1.6059 on Tuesday (which is nothing to sneeze at) but a weekly close of 1.6000 is what it will take to keep bulls happy and the bears on the defensive. If it drops below Monday's low of 1.5836, that will increase pressure on the Cable and 1.5600 and 1.5475 are the next supports.

USDCAD had an interesting week, being given up for dead with its recent lows of .9849. This is one of the times that the bearish sentiment caught me up in its clutches (and one of the reasons I usually read very little commentary during the week). I had a target that I blogged about on Tuesday of .9850 and I bought at .9860. Had I stayed in that position, I would have been fine but when it couldn't reach the daily 10 SMA, I gave up and closed the trade for a piddling 40 pips. I then went short and lost the 40 pips. At least I had the sense to stop and reverse at that point so I made the loss back but it's a great example of how even someone as stubborn as I am can lose my focus. The pair managed to climb as high as 1.0031 yesterday, giving some evidence to my hypothesis that the pair had formed an ending diagonal from which the move should be up. However, this game isn't over yet; there are some troubling signs in the pair with price targets extending down into the .9500 area. Ideally, the pair would close above parity for the week to provide a bullish outlook. The low this morning, so far, has been .9917. That's just about on the 50%retracement of the move up so let's see how it goes from here.

USDCHF never managed to get above last week's high of .9784, spending the week correcting from its move up from .9300. The pullback looks as though it might be ending and a bull flag on the daily chart targets 1.0388. It would be great if .9600 held as support (.382 of the most recent move up) and I may buy in again at that level. Below that is .9543/.9521 and then the .618 of .9485. Dropping below that would be bearish.

USDJPY managed a nice recovery from its drop to support of 81.86 on Wednesday and rose to a high of 83.13 yesterday. Since the early January low was 81.23, this makes for support in the 81.86/23 zone. There's a bull flag on the hourly that targets 84.06 but note that the high brought it to the short-term, resistance, downtrend line from early January.

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