Tuesday, April 6, 2010

USDCAD—heading towards parity

USDCAD declined to 1.0004 and is at lows last seen in July 2008 so while parity seems to be a given, the question is how low it might sink from here.

One thing that's interesting on the weekly chart is that momentum, as measured by RSI, is not getting below 30 into an oversold area. However there's also no positive divergence on the weekly chart. There is positive divergence on the daily, 3-hour, and hourly chart and since the pair is tremendously oversold, one might expect a rally at some point. No doubt any rallies will be used to short. It's possible the lower boundary of the channel and prior support could result in .9863 or .9819 stopping (or at least delaying) further declines. Should a rally take place (and I'm sure everyone would be stunned if it did), one might look to 1.0067, 1.0129 and 1.0197.

Here’s the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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