USDCAD—Stumbling and staggering

The evening star I pointed out yesterday on the three-hour chart proved out as the warning that the pair was turning back from 1.0644, taking my trade out at +10 pips. That’s barely enough profit for the organic turkey and a good bottle of bubbly. Well I’ve made hundreds of pips on this pair both last month and this, so I’ll stay chipper. 1.0644 is also polarity, meaning it has served as both support and resistance in the past. I’ve marked some of those points with red arrows on the chart.

The support levels one can look for are:

1.0530—top of the diamond pattern from last week. But it’s merrily blowing past this.
1.0496—daily uptrend line
1.0418—Nov.11 low
1.0379—Oct. 21 low
1.0272—going to the dogs low
1.0208—if this doesn’t hold then it’s the bye-bye low

Resistance, although talk of such a thing seems over-optimistic at this moment in time, is at 1.0644, 1.0734, and 1.0870.

Remember, that while the pair may indeed be basing, we're in an overall downtrend from March. If it can't make it out of that, it can't make it out. But as I said yesterday, major holidays such as Thanksgiving, particularly during USA trading hours can cause whimsical trading moves. Probably best to give it a break until after the holiday.

Here’s the three-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.