Monday, April 11, 2011

EURUSD—possible consolidation or retracement

Euro reached 1.4488 on Friday so bulls are in control coming into the new week. However, because there is strong resistance here, the possibility is for at least some consolidation and perhaps retracement. The resistance consists of price targets, wave and harmonic projections, and the .618 retracement of the move from 1.6041 to 1.1876 at 1.4451. This does not mean the move up is over. As I wrote on Friday, there is a possibility the pair is moving up within an upward sloping rectangle on the weekly chart that would take it to 1.5150. Applying even rudimentary cycle analysis also makes that possible. Within the daily chart, though, one can see that Euro is at the top of a similar type of rectangle and a drop to the bottom of this pattern wouldn't be unusual. Support is at 1.4420, 1.4384, 1.4320, then major support around 1.4262/43 (prior high and parity), 1.4202 (.382 of the recent move up from 1.3752), and then a zone beginning at 1.4166 down through 1.4100. Most likely, these supports will cause dip buying. Here's the daily chart:

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