Friday, January 14, 2011

Currency market today

In a recap of the week so far as of 9:10 AM EST:

AUDUSD took a tumble this week, reaching a low of .9804, a lower low than the prior week. It did stay above the weekly 20 EMA which has been holding price dips since September. The rally was capped yesterday at 1.0020. This morning saw another drop, dipping below the daily uptrend line once more. The listless RSI readings that accompanied the rally may have something to do with the decline. Low so far this morning is .9857 from where it's trying to base. The drop took out the remainder of my long for +38 pips. Resistance is at .9900, .9982, 1.0020/56, 1.0183, 1.0214, and 1.0257. Support is at .9804, .9690, .9612 and .9544/32.

EURGBP had a low this week of .8285, only a pip or two below that of the prior week. Currently, the weekly candle looks like it's a piercing candle which would be bullish if it closes near its spike high today of .8499. Resistance above .8500 is strong.

EURJPY bounced from a low of 107.80 on 106.83 on Monday to its high so far this morning of 110.93. That exceeded last week's high. A weekly close there would be bullish. Despite that, though, there's still much weakness in this pair. Assuming the pair is in an ABC correction, a C wave that's 1.618 of the A wave would take price to 111.08. If it can close safely above that, it's possible it could see 114.24/52 up to 115.69 but I think that's unlikely.

EURUSD bounced smartly as well from its low of 1.2874. Fierce resistance is in the 1.3500 area. If the pair manages a clean close above 1.35 then 1.3739/85 is possible. That would make the Euro bulls, who have largely been in retreat, very happy. It's more likely there will be another pullback, slightly below the 1.2874. I kook forward to my weekend analysis on this pair.

GBPJPY dropped to a low of 128.32 this week. And then, in line with the emotional market, marched up to a 131.60 resistance this morning. Should the Guppy clear that, then 133.03 will be formidable. I plan to short.

GBPUSD , from a low of 1.5475, bounced to yesterday's high of 1.5884. It's trying to get back there this morning and the high has been just a few pips below at 1.5876. The price target, if it doesn't falter, is 1.5949.

USDCAD has been struggling all week, not catching much of a ride from the earlier USD strength and dropping to a low of .9849. It tried to pick up some steam this mornng, reaching .9977 but is stumbling again. Next week should be interesting for this pair as there has been low volatility all week.

USDCHF climbed barely above last week's high to .9784 before falling to a low of .9605 this morning. This lined up with yesterday's analysis which put a C wave at 1.618 that of A at .9568 and price support at .9605 and .9587. Additional support is at .9525. It's trying to rally.

USDJPY touched a low of 82.41 this morning, after falling back from resistance at 83.46 on Wednesday. A close below 82.50 this weak will leave the bears in control.

No comments:

Post a Comment