Tuesday, October 5, 2010

USDCHF—how low can it go?

In March, 2008, this pair's low was .9637. The low so far today has been .9657. This is near major support and I'd expect a bounce. The question is how high would that bounce go? .9844/79 is the first possibility; parity is the second.

The troubling thing about the weekly chart is that one can make a case for an Elliott Wave zigzag correction (it meets all the rules). I've marked this in red as Alt: A, etc. So what would it mean? Well, it's easy to say lower, much lower, lows ahead. However it's not quite time to throw out the original count as it's also possible to interpret the entire move as a wave two (2) that is going to retrace all of wave one (down to .9637) before resuming wave three. Interesting times.

Here's the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

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