Wednesday, October 6, 2010

EURUSD—not a lot more to say

There's not a lot more to say than what I've been saying over the last week or so. The pair keeps trying to edge up but there are many who expect it to reverse. I believe 1.40 is possible but there's more resistance at 1.3893, the .618 retracement of the move down from last November. It's overbought in several time frames. If it is going to blow past the 1.40 mark it needs a major correction to do so. A move down to the 1.3335/1.3450 level would provide that. A move below 1.3799 would hint at that. If it's not going to continue to climb—and nobody can deny the ending diagonal on the daily chart plus the fact that the currency is pretty crummy fundamentally (although what does that have to do with anything?), then it will probably begin to move down rather sharply at some point. Anyone long would want to their profits locked in and I would hope people aren't adding longs at this point. For myself, I continue to look for a good short entry. Lots of eyes watching this pair as always and that too is a problem. A watched pot never boils it seems. But of course it does eventually.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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