Thursday, August 12, 2010

USDCAD—sideways at resistance

I'm still long from 1.0258 although the pair has largely been going sideways since I took some partial profits yesterday.

Price achieved 1.0494 before falling back where it is now hovering in an area of Fib confluence of 1.0464. This means it faltered near the top of the triangle at 1.0499 (1.05 also significant as a round number and is intertwined with polarity and Fib confluence). Ahead is the entire strong resistance zone of 1.05 to 1.0677. What it does with this resistance is going to most likely tell a very interesting story.

A pullback is more than likely given the overbought status of RSI (over 70) on the three- and one-hour charts. There's negative divergence on the one-hour chart (not shown). Ideally, this pullback would be contained by 1.04 which is roughly the 200 daily Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fib confluence, polarity, and the short-term uptrend line. Additional support is at 1.0298, 1.0274, 1.0205, 1.0146, and 1.0108.

Here's the three-hour chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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