Stupid analysis

Would you follow the trading advice of someone who writes things such as the following?

" [do] what FEELS RIGHT, so follow your intuition "
" Just reverse your logic"
" I was completely delusional and stupid for following this path."
" I feel sorry for those who do not know of or can't even conceptualize the existence of a sacred science of cycles."

I thought I'd critique an "analysis" from the person who made these comments. He posts in a forum where they're strong on right wing conspiracies and magical, mystical trading methods. This leads to the lack of rigor and inability to explain his methods based on the "sacred science of cycles."

On 7/29 this so-called trader posted that USDCAD's price should be " a high and it looks like it may come up just shy, although there is the small chance or this orb'ing over to 7-30 and making the high there. On a daily chart I'd take this recent congestion in price at 1.0380's a high in a backtest." This guy then went on to say 8/3 could be a low and 8/10 could be a high.

Let's ignore the fact the pair was in a downtrend and was at fib confluence resistance on 7/29. He didn't know to mention this. But no way was 8/3 a low nor was 8/4. And who knows what "orb'ing" means in this context or the congestion language about a "backtest"? Are we back testing or forecasting here? Who knows.

On 7/30 this person wrote, "7-29 High is confirming now...." and later in the day he posted that the "Next pivot should be around 8-3 and appears to be coming in as a low....." Really? Is he now elaborating upon or defending what he already said the day before?

He goes on to say, " The price action will tell us what to expect come the next
pivot around 8-10." Wow! Price action. Yes, there will certainly be some hints there.
Then he writes, " I have not checked for inversions... But a couple cycles are working simultaneously… and this is just my first brush stroke….Learning to read the price action as you go, is part of figuring out how these cycles play out in real life." Not a hint as to how to read price action but lots of mumbo-jumbo about inversions and simultaneous cycles. First brush-stroke. Oh sure.

His last sentence was " Applying elliot (sic) wave, ratios of price, and other traditional/classic methods help you zero in on the price levels to work with when the pivots come due." Absolutely, Brainiac. And why don’t you do some of that?

Presumably our guy realized 8/3 wasn't going to be a low so he skipped posting. But on 8/4 he was back. " The 8-3 low appears to have come in a little early (current actual low was on 8-2 at 1.0203." Was it his cycles that showed him this? It wasn't true in any case as the low came in 8/5.

But then he writes he's "going to navigate this trade, live." Whoo-hoo. At last.
Now he leaves his cycle theory to discuss " global market thoughts" which includes that the Dow is " pausing around the 10700 level" and " last time I looked, this appeared to be near a target level for an ABC retracement of an elliot wave down from 11260 high. " Who knows when the last time he looked was? He doesn't deem that relevant. And what is he basing his Elliott interpretation on? He does include a picture but it's clear from the labeling that he doesn't understand EW. He shows the pair nearing the end of an ABC correction so why in heaven's name is he considering going long? He doesn't bother sharing this and I can only assume he's confused about how to count, label and interpret waves.

Next he states, " the USD "generally" gets stronger when the DOW declines and vice versus (sic)…[this is] correlation cycles." Correlations are now cycles?

Now he assigns a weight to all his "evidence" of +1 to a possible long trade in USDCAD. But wait! He has " some reservation" and the Dow may go higher.
Enthusiastically he now looks at the big picture. Daily? Weekly? No. The four-hour chart. It's the first indication we have that he's trading in small time frames. If he really trades that is.

He writes that what he sees is a " large elliot (sic) wave triangle." He insists the low was made 8/2 even though now it's 8/4 and it's clear that isn't true. He's back to saying you must cross correlate markets (this isn't untrue but the only one he's mentioned is the Dow which probably isn't the most significant for USDCAD).

However he writes, " this method of cross correlating markets can really help you remove some orb and confirm your trade setups." Hmm. Orb? OK.

Now he brings in the mystical having exhausted his ability to explain the normal. He writes, " There are additional astro and traditional methods I use to further zoom in but cannot go into at this time." Right. They never can. You'll probably have to pay for this worthless mumble jumble to get at these "proprietary" methods. But you'll want to of course because he writes, " I can usually work through all 3 or 4 charts, check correlations, and upcoming news, in about 20 minutes or less per currency pair, seeing if my cycle forecast fits any of the technical setups. " Yep. But now he adds up all his weightings. He can't tell us what they are but he arrives at " a weighted average of probability" and make a decision. Hmm. Does he know the definition of probability? The definition of weighted average? Probably not. But no matter. He trades based on " Gann, that I have adapted and modified to my liking." He buys a call option writing enthusiastically, "Options are great for ANYONE." Forget risk and how you need a certain amount of technical knowledge. That's just not relevant to this bippy.

On 8/5 he writes again. Yes, the USDCAD has moved lower. Hmm. But he writes he sort of said it could have. Didn't he? He's still looking for his trade, though, zooming in on the five-minute chart. Well nothing else has worked for him. Maybe this will.

Eureka. He bought long at the price indicated by the red arrow on his little chart. Thing is, this chart displays neither price nor time. So who knows what he entered at? And why? As he writes, " The methods used to pin point that buy are not shown, you have to devise your own that work." Mystical to the end. Secret. And perhaps valuable if you only pony up the money?

As best as I can figure he bought about 1.0212. Let's hope he had a nice tight stop as the pair drifted on down to 1.0108. But he wrote later, "I don't believe the trade setup is optimal any more(sic)." Whew. That's good.

The problem with all this is that:
1) There's no real explanation of his methods
2) He tosses around Elliott Wave, correlation, and the mysterious cycles, making mistakes all the while in discussing at least the first two and not explaining anything significant about the latter.

This can fool people who don't know what they're doing either. The purpose of something like the CMT exams administered by the Market Technician's Association is to give the designation to those who have at least studied technical analysis. But there are way too many people out there who don't know what they're doing but put out their "analysis" anyway. I would bet this guy doesn't have people (yet) who actually pay him but he's certainly setting that possibility up among a very gullible and mis-informed audience. Oh, and what was his explanation for the trade not working? In his words, " this turn due on the 3rd might have inverted or come in weak." On the 7th he wrote "something" else must have pushed the price down. He concludes by writing, " That hunch I have about the 10th being a H on usd.cad, might just have some foundation." At last the truth! It's a hunch, pure and simple.

Why would anyone listen to people that are uneducated in technical analysis and put this mumbo-jumbo and hunches out there?